证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 ❖ 近一周，中央层面政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容： 1、外交：1 月 29 日，商务部召开例行发布会，有记者提问"美国贸易代表日 前在达沃斯向记者表示，在可能于 4 月举行的中美领导人会晤之前，中美双 方有机会开启新一轮经贸谈判"。 2、反腐：1 月 27 日，总理在国务院第四次廉政工作会议上指出，深刻理解和 把握管党治党越往后越严、一严到底的鲜明立场，树立和践行正确政绩观。 3、产业：一是光伏反内卷。1 月 28 日，工信部部长召开光伏行业企业家座谈 会，提出当前形势下，"反内卷"是光伏行业规范治理的主要矛盾，要求综合运 用产能控制等手段坚决破除行业内卷式竞争。二是发电侧容量电价改革。1 月 30 日，国家发改委等引发通知，对现行煤电、气电、抽水蓄能容量电价机制 进行了完善，并首次在国家层面明确建立电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制。 4、资本市场：1 月 30 日，证监会召开资本市场"十五五"规划上市公司座谈会， 吴清主席在会上提出，高质量编制和实施好资本市场"十五五"规划，全力巩 固资本市场稳中向好势头，聚焦持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革、提高制度 包容性适应性，抓紧 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As the non-ferrous and precious metal sectors have undergone significant and concentrated downward adjustments to fully release risks, market trends in other sectors may follow, and funds will seek new thematic market trends. The anti-involution theme has many related varieties, low valuations, a certain safety margin, and sufficient volume to accommodate funds flowing out of non-ferrous and precious metals, which is worthy of attention. The national policy is determined to rectify involution-style competition and adjust the dynamic adjustment ability of the supply side. It is believed that the anti-involution theme may be inevitable in the 2026 market [2][5]. - The strength and weakness structure of the commodity market has changed significantly in recent weeks. Funds have flowed out significantly from the non-ferrous and precious metal sectors, while the chemical sector has seen continuous capital inflows, indicating a possible change in the theme of the market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends of Each Sector - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver have fallen sharply in recent trading days. After a large increase in precious metals, there is a large amount of profit-taking. Once there are signs of adjustment, there may be a stampede in selling, with continuous capital outflows and a possible decline in volatility [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall valuation of oils and fats is relatively low, and the price of US soybeans is below the cost line, with limited downside. However, the demand for the feed end lacks strong logical support, and oils and fats are slightly stronger than soybean meal [4]. - **Chemical Industry**: In 2026, the chemical industry will generally operate within the framework of anti-involution, with national policies emphasizing the supply-demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and PVC has seen continuous growth. The valuation of chemical products has reached the extreme [4]. - **Black Sector**: Steel is one of the key varieties for anti-involution, and the downside of coal is also limited. The coal supply guarantee market is approaching the end. In terms of market rhythm, low-valuation varieties may absorb funds from the non-ferrous sector [4]. 3.2 Capital Flows of Each Sector (in billions) | Sector | Capital Flow | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Total | 80.51 | 14.3 | | Precious Metals | 20.37 | 20.9 | | Non-ferrous Metals | -29.71 | -26.3 | | Black Sector | -10.17 | -22.7 | | Energy | 21.93 | 100.0 | | Chemical Industry | -9.79 | -24.2 | | Feed and Breeding | -3.87 | -14.1 | | Oils and Fats | 21.73 | 48.2 | | Soft Commodities | -13.58 | -81.6 | [9] 3.3 Weekly Data of Each Sector - **Black and Non-ferrous Metals**: Data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis for various varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and gold are provided [9]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis for various varieties such as fuel oil, low-sulfur oil, and asphalt are provided [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: Data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis for various varieties such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil are provided [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the introduction of a national capacity pricing policy for independent energy storage and anticipates a record high in domestic photovoltaic installations in 2025 [1][6] Wind Power - A significant event occurred on January 26, where nine countries signed the North Sea Offshore Wind Investment Agreement, committing to provide planning and investment guarantees for offshore wind projects, aiming for an annual addition of 15GW of offshore wind capacity from 2031 to 2040 [5][9] - The wind power index fell by 3.01% during the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.09 percentage points, with a current PE_TTM valuation of approximately 28.16 times [4][10] Photovoltaics - In 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation is expected to reach a record high of 31.507 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 13.67%, driven by the promotion of the 136 document [5][6] - The report forecasts that the domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry will face significant supply-demand pressure and profitability challenges in 2026, with expected new installations between 200-250GW [5][6] Energy Storage & Hydrogen Energy - The national capacity pricing policy for independent energy storage has been established, allowing independent storage to earn revenue through a combination of capacity pricing and spot market arbitrage [6] - The report recommends investing in domestic and international large-scale storage companies, highlighting firms like Sungrow Power Supply, Huaneng Renewables, and others as having strong competitive advantages [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with competitive advantages in high-efficiency battery technology and those involved in the emerging markets of distributed storage [6] - Specific recommendations include Ningde Times and Penghui Energy in the battery segment, and companies like Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy in the wind power sector [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the photovoltaic industry, with the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index rising by 1.84% and key stocks like Dongfang Risheng and Nanjing Energy showing significant gains [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notice to improve the capacity pricing mechanism on the generation side, emphasizing the need for a reliable capacity compensation mechanism to ensure stable power supply during peak demand [1] - The reliable capacity compensation mechanism will be based on fixed costs that cannot be recovered in the energy and ancillary services markets, taking into account power supply-demand relationships and user affordability [1] Group 2 - Zhongyin Securities identifies "anti-involution" and "space photovoltaic" as the two main investment themes for 2026, with Elon Musk indicating the potential to establish a 100GW photovoltaic full industry chain, which is expected to enhance the demand for photovoltaic equipment [2] - The China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index includes up to 50 representative listed companies involved in the photovoltaic industry chain, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 53.49% of the index [2] - The photovoltaic ETF fund closely tracks the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index, with various related index funds available for investors [2]

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 2 月 2 日 二月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、下游需求旺 盛，自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司。 行业动态 投资建议 风险提示 ◼ 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 强于大市 化工行业周报 20260201 国际油价上涨，分散染料、维生素 E 价格上涨 《化工行业 2026 年度策略》20260128 《化工行业周报 20260125》20260125 《化工行业周报 20260118》20260118 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：范琦岩 qiyan.fan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525040001 ◼ 本周（01.25-02.01）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 50 个品种价格上涨，22 个品种价格下 跌，2 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 2 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2026/2/2 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農筋 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 多晶硅 | 沥青 | 合成橡胶 | | | 尿素 | 橡胶 | 燃油 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 工业硅 | 烧碱 | | | | 红枣 | 纸浆 | 二债 | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 原木 | 十债 | | | | 生猪 | 胶版印刷纸 | 三十债 | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 沪深300股指期货 | 五债 | | | | 甲醇 | 上证50股指期货 | 苹果 | | | | 塑料 | 白糖 | 硅铁 | | | | 液化石油气 | 焦炭 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Views - The real estate market in first-tier cities has shown strong performance, particularly in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [1][2] - Government debt issuance has significantly increased, with a total of 863.35 billion yuan in January 2026, reflecting a 204.3% month-on-month increase and a 54.8% year-on-year increase, which may alleviate fiscal pressure and accelerate municipal projects [1] - The glass manufacturing sector is approaching a supply-demand balance due to accelerated cold repairs, while photovoltaic glass companies are reducing production to ease supply tensions [1][3] - The cement industry is experiencing a demand bottoming process, with increased off-peak production efforts and a focus on regional demand recovery, particularly in areas like Tibet and Xinjiang [1][2] - The demand for fiberglass remains robust, driven by growth in wind energy and high-end applications, indicating structural investment opportunities [1][6] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of January 30, 2026, the national cement price index is 342.94 yuan/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.278 million tons, a decrease of 4.27% [2][18] - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns is 45.19%, up 2.77 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a slight recovery in production [2][18] - The market is currently undergoing structural adjustments, with infrastructure remaining the main support but showing weak growth [2][18] Glass Industry Tracking - As of January 29, 2026, the average price of float glass is 1144.80 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.53% [3][31] - Inventory levels have decreased, with a total of 49.27 million weight boxes, down 500,000 from the previous week [3][31] - Demand is expected to slow down as many small processing plants will shut down for the holiday, leading to a quieter market [3][31] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali roving remains stable, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases, while supply remains unchanged [6] - The average price of electronic yarn is stable, with expectations of price increases in high-end products due to ongoing demand [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber price remains stable, with a weekly production of 2,369 tons and an operating rate of 76.28% [7] - The industry continues to face profitability challenges, with an average production cost of 113,300 yuan/ton and a negative gross margin [7] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is benefiting from the recovery in second-hand housing and renovation demand, with significant potential for market share growth [1][6]

Macro and Strategy - In 2025, China's economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of 5.0%, showing a "high first, low later" trend, with a significant inverse relationship between GDP growth and price performance [8][9] - The structural transformation in 2025 is positive, with a decline in the growth rate of the secondary industry and an increase in the tertiary industry, which helps alleviate excess supply pressure and supports domestic demand through service sector development [8][9] - The overall domestic demand remains at a historically low level, with insufficient internal demand being a major bottleneck in the economic cycle [8][9] Chemical Industry - The phosphate chemical industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with the wet-process phosphoric acid being the core preparation route, gradually replacing the energy-intensive thermal process [28][29] - Domestic phosphate rock supply is tightening due to strict environmental regulations, leading to a significant reduction in outdated production capacity [28][29] - The demand for phosphate rock is expected to remain robust, with the gross profit margin for leading enterprises around 80%, while the share of wet-process phosphoric acid consumption is projected to increase significantly by 2024 [29][30] Electronic Industry - The LCD panel industry has seen an increase in prices, with the panel index rising by 11.55% since December 2025, outperforming major stock indices [31][32] - The global revenue for large-sized LCD panels in December reached $6.423 billion, with a month-on-month growth of 15.52% [32] - Price increases for various sizes of LCD TV panels are expected to continue into February, driven by strong demand from television brands [33] Agricultural Industry - The price of live pigs is expected to continue rising, supported by the "anti-involution" policy, with the price recorded at 12.87 yuan/kg as of January 23, 2026 [36] - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery, while the price of yellow chickens is expected to benefit from improved domestic demand [36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that after two years of valuation recovery in the A-share market, the third year is often difficult to sustain high valuations, with market performance increasingly reliant on profit realization [1] - The report suggests a focus on sectors with visible performance and improved supply-demand structures, particularly in cyclical industries benefiting from global manufacturing recovery and China's competitive manufacturing advantages [1] - The AI industry remains a clear investment theme, but the focus should shift from thematic expansion to performance-driven investments, particularly in areas with supply shortages such as computing power and storage [1] Group 2 - In January, the A-share market exhibited typical spring volatility characteristics, with major indices recording positive returns, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 index which rose by 15.67% [2] - The market's upward momentum was driven by a rapid influx of incremental capital, with average daily trading volume reaching 3.04 trillion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month [3] - Regulatory interventions and global disturbances have led to fluctuations in market risk appetite, causing a slowdown in the pace of index increases [3] Group 3 - In the technology sector, thematic investments initially outperformed, but as margin requirements increased, there was a shift towards sectors with more predictable earnings, such as semiconductors and power equipment [4] - Cyclical assets, particularly in non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals, have shown strong performance due to three driving factors: spillover from technology sector growth, supply-side constraints, and external geopolitical factors [4] - The market is expected to exhibit a structural characteristic moving forward, with indices likely to remain volatile and focused on resource, technology, and overseas expansion themes [5][6]

Group 1: Economic Development and Innovation - The "Su Super" football league in Jiangsu has generated significant consumer spending of 38 billion yuan, showcasing the economic impact of local events and cultural initiatives [1] - Jiangsu's foreign trade reached a record high of nearly 6 trillion yuan, reflecting resilience through market structure optimization and the rise of new business models [2] - A "de-involution" movement is underway in various industries, including solar energy and automotive, aimed at curbing unhealthy competition and enhancing resource allocation [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The development of "embodied intelligent robots" is gaining momentum in Jiangsu, with nearly 300 companies forming an innovation alliance to enhance technological capabilities [4] - Jiangsu is focusing on "characteristic advantageous industries," identifying over 200 such industries across 95 counties to promote targeted development and modernization [5] - The rise of One Person Companies (OPC) is being supported through a comprehensive ecosystem that encourages micro-innovation and entrepreneurship [6] Group 3: Service Industry Growth - The revenue growth rate of the productive service industry in Jiangsu reached an average of 11.3%, significantly contributing to the overall service sector growth [7] - A new "dual high collaboration" mechanism is being implemented, linking high-tech zones with universities to foster innovation and address real industry challenges [9] Group 4: Human Capital Investment - The concept of "investing in people" has been incorporated into government reports, emphasizing the transformation of human resources into human capital, with significant funding directed towards social welfare and education [10] Group 5: Scene Innovation - Scene innovation is becoming a key focus in Jiangsu, with 93 projects launched across various sectors, highlighting the role of artificial intelligence in driving technological commercialization [11]