1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The July CPI remained unchanged year - on - year, with a growth of 2.7%, lower than the Wind expected value of 2.72%. The core CPI increased slightly year - on - year, growing by 3.0%, also lower than the expected 3.04%. Both CPI and core CPI are below the inflation level in February this year [2]. - The main reason for the CPI decline this month is the drop in the energy item, and food prices also slightly decreased. The energy sub - item decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, and gasoline prices decreased by 2.2% month - on - month. Food sub - item increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown [3]. - The new and used car markets are warming up, indicating a recovery in consumer demand and confidence. However, the used - car wholesale market shows a slight decline, and the inflation concerns from it may be alleviated. Furniture prices are still cooling, reflecting a deepening of weakening demand [4]. - Service - related CPI continues to rise, mainly due to expectations. But the cooling housing market may make service inflation unsustainable, and the spiral risk is still weak [5]. - Supply chain pressure continues to ease, and the CPI of tariff - related commodity categories is cooling. The "one - time impact theory of tariffs" has more explanatory power for the market [7]. - This month's CPI presents a pattern of "service inflation and commodity deflation". Weak demand has a strong resistance to prices, and the decline in commodity CPI further confirms that the impact of tariffs on prices may be one - time. The rise in service CPI may not form a stubborn inflation spiral [7]. - Inflation is still controllable. Market participants regard the inflation data as a positive signal. The FedWatch tool shows that the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has risen from 85.9% to 93.4%, and more voices within the Fed support interest rate cuts [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Observation - **CPI and Core CPI Trends**: In July, the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with a 0.2% month - on - month increase (0.1 pct lower than the previous value). The core CPI increased by 3.0% year - on - year, with a 0.3% month - on - month increase (0.1 pct higher than the previous value) [2]. - **CPI Sub - item Analysis**: The energy sub - item decreased by 1.1% month - on - month (previous value 0.9%), and gasoline prices decreased by 2.2% month - on - month. The food sub - item increased by 2.9% year - on - year, 0.1 pct lower than last month, and 0.0% month - on - month (0.3% in June) [3]. - **Demand - Sensitive Indicators**: Used - car prices increased by 0.5% month - on - month (previous value - 0.7%), and 4.8% year - on - year. New - car prices also recovered. The CCI US consumer confidence index rose to 97.3% (previous value 93%). However, the used - car wholesale market declined, with the Manheim used - car value index showing a year - on - year decrease to 2.8% and a month - on - month decrease to - 0.53% [4]. - **Demand - Lagging Indicators**: Furniture price growth slowed to 0.7% month - on - month (previous value 1.0%), reflecting the real impact of tariffs on prices and the deepening of weakening demand [4]. - **Service - Related CPI**: Service - related CPI continued to rise, but the housing market cooled. Most service - related CPI items increased, especially for medical care services and transportation services. The S&P CS housing price index shows that market rent growth has slowed for 5 consecutive months [5]. 3.2 In - depth Analysis - **Inflation Pattern**: This month's CPI shows a pattern of "service inflation and commodity deflation". Weak demand has a strong resistance to prices, and the decline in commodity CPI confirms the one - time impact of tariffs on prices [7]. - **Reasons for the Limited Service Inflation Spiral**: Firstly, the rise in service CPI is driven by inflation expectations, but the actual decline in commodity prices this month may disprove these expectations. Secondly, the areas where service inflation continues to rise are mostly essential - need categories, and the downward trend in the real estate market shows that inflation lacks a strong rolling effect [7][10]. - **Inflation Outlook**: Inflation is still controllable. Since May, the CPI has remained at 2.7% after a one - time jump, and the core CPI has only increased by 0.1 pct per month, which is lower than the level in February. The market regards the inflation data as positive, and the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased [8].

当地时间8月12日，美国劳工部数据显示，美国7月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，环比上涨 0.2%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，环比涨幅为0.3%。这两项数 据均高于上月，其中环比涨幅为近6个月以来的最大值。 尽管7月份核心CPI创半年新高，对于市场预期的美联储9月降息预期而言仍不是好消息，但7月份美国 CPI整体数据显示通胀压力仍相对温和，市场担忧的通胀急剧上升的情况尚未出现。 中金公司宏观研究团队认为，从分项来看，关税成本仍在向零售端传导，但也有部分价格出现回落。一 些此前下跌的服务价格转为上涨，增加了通胀的黏性。美国通胀将进入一轮结构性上行阶段。 对美联储而言，核心CPI并未朝着2%目标收敛，而是重回3%以上，与目标越来越远。这可能加大美联 储内部分歧，使其难以就政策决议形成共识。货币政策路径的变数将大幅提升，市场波动将加剧。 开源证券宏观研究团队指出，核心商品的再通胀，或显示关税对美国通胀的冲击还在进行中。从美联储 关注的超级核心服务通胀来看，7月份同比、环比增速分别较6月份上升0.19个百分点、0.27个百分点。 往后看，随着低基数效应的出现、关税影 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's comments regarding his conversation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade dynamics between the U.S., Russia, and China [1] - Trump indicated that Orbán provided insights on the military capabilities of Russia compared to China's trade strength, suggesting that Russia wins through warfare while China wins through trade [1] - The article highlights Trump's defensiveness regarding U.S.-China trade relations, asserting that China would not defeat the U.S. through trade during his presidency, contrasting with President Biden's approach [2] Group 2 - A report from Goldman Sachs challenges Trump's claims about the benefits of his tariff policies, indicating that U.S. companies have borne 64% of tariff costs, with consumers expected to shoulder 67% of these costs by October [4][5] - The report warns that rising prices due to tariffs will exacerbate domestic inflation, with 64% of CEOs planning to pass on increased costs to consumers [5] - Trump's reaction to the Goldman Sachs report included personal attacks on the firm's CEO, dismissing the report's findings and maintaining that tariffs do not lead to inflation or economic harm [6][7]

Core Insights - US inflation data came in lower than expected, maintaining market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - Japanese stock market followed the upward trend of US stocks, with the Nikkei 225 index reaching a historical high [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.72% during intraday trading, reaching 43,451.46 points, marking a historical peak [1] - The index ultimately closed up 1.3% at 43,274.67 points, also setting a new closing record [1]

Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, unchanged from June, and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than June's 0.3% increase [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in June, and the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, the largest since January [1] - Service prices have rebounded, indicating challenges in controlling inflation, despite no significant price increases in goods directly related to tariffs [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The U.S. inflation situation is complex, with strong resilience observed; tariff-related price increases are noted in certain services, such as medical insurance and furniture [4] - Despite rising prices, overall inflation has not deteriorated significantly due to a cooling labor market, with a downward revision of non-farm employment numbers and a first-half economic growth rate of only 1.4% [5] - The potential impact of recent data on Federal Reserve monetary policy is highlighted, with President Trump advocating for immediate interest rate cuts to lower government refinancing costs and support the economy ahead of the midterm elections [7] Group 3: Market Expectations - There is a significant probability that the Federal Reserve may resume interest rate cuts in September, especially if labor market data continues to worsen, despite inflation being above target [8] - Investor sentiment is leaning towards a rate cut in September, influenced by the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data expected at the end of August [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper fluctuated higher. US inflation pressure is controllable, strengthening the expectation of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. There are differences in views on the future of US copper. The domestic "Golden September" peak - season expectation and anti - involution policy expectations support prices, and copper maintains a relative balance between bulls and bears [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. In August, the profit in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. There are signs of a turn in the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum, and the aluminum price is in a stage of trading time for space with an expectation of continued recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak - season guidance [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. The overall fundamentals changed little and showed a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US 7 - month CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI reached 3.1%. The market has different views on US copper due to over - inventory. Domestic factors support prices, and copper is in a balanced state [1]. - **Aluminum**: AO2509 closed at 3287 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase, AL2509 at 20800 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase, and AD2511 at 20200 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3248 yuan/ton. There are changes in the supply - demand and profit distribution of the aluminum industry [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.23% to 15360 dollars/ton, Shanghai nickel rose 0.2% to 122870 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 450 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The overall fundamentals are stable [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Aluminum**: The spot premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. The total inventory decreased by 3913 tons, and the alumina inventory increased by 3.9 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 600 yuan/ton. The total nickel inventory increased by 444 tons, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.1%, and the social inventory increased by 0.77 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.9%, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by 22.16 dollars/ton [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [8][10][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [16][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate [43][45][47]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: The current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: An analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing timely policy interpretations and writing in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi: An analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S., suggesting that the duration of tariffs (temporary vs. long-term) is more critical than their mere existence in determining inflationary pressures [4][11]. Tariff Classification - The paper categorizes post-World War II U.S. tariffs into two types: temporary and long-term, revealing that approximately 80% of historical tariff fluctuations are temporary [5][9]. Economic Behavior - If tariffs are perceived as temporary, businesses and consumers may adjust their purchasing behavior and reduce price increase pressures, potentially leading to a more stable economic environment [7][9]. - Conversely, if tariffs are seen as permanent, businesses are likely to incorporate costs into prices, resulting in a one-time price increase followed by stabilization [8][9]. Historical Examples - Historical instances, such as Nixon's 1971 import surcharge and Ford's 1975 oil import fee, demonstrate that temporary tariffs do not significantly impact inflation or economic growth, often coinciding with interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11]. Market Sentiment - The market's primary concern is not whether tariffs are imposed but rather their expected duration, which influences economic cycles and Federal Reserve policies [11][13]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty in its decision-making, balancing concerns over inflation from tariffs with the need to respond to early signs of economic slowdown [14][15]. Emerging Concerns - Two significant narratives are developing in the market: the impact of data revisions on perceptions of economic stability and concerns regarding attacks on central bank independence, which historically correlate with higher inflation [18][19][20].

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In July, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month's value and slightly below the market expectation of 2.8%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - Core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% previously and above the market expectation of 3.0%[2] Group 2: Tariff Impact and Consumer Behavior - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident, with July's goods inflation remaining stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[3] - Prices in previously affected sectors like clothing and appliances are showing signs of stabilization or decline, indicating that companies may be absorbing tariff costs due to weakened consumer demand[4] - Service inflation is rebounding, with significant increases in medical services (+0.8%), vehicle maintenance (+1.0%), and airfares (+4.0%) reflecting rising labor costs[5] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data and moderate inflation figures, the expectation for a rate cut in September has risen to 94.3%, up from 85.9% the previous day[6] - The current inflation outlook suggests potential challenges for future rate cuts, as tariff impacts may continue to spread, leading to price increases that could eventually be passed on to consumers[6] - The tightening of immigration policies may also affect labor supply, potentially increasing service inflation persistence[6]

当地时间8月12日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国7月CPI环比上升0.2%，与预期一致，前值为 0.3%；同比涨幅维持在2.7%，低于市场预期的2.8%。 CPI数据出炉，特朗普再度炮轰鲍威尔 自特朗普上任以来，几乎每次通胀报告、就业数据和美联储决议之后，他都会公开要求美联储降息，并 抨击鲍威尔。这一次当然也不例外。 在最新的帖文中，特朗普要求美联储主席鲍威尔立即降息，并指责其总是行动太迟。 他还发出威胁，正考虑允许针对鲍威尔的相关诉讼继续推进。特朗普批评鲍威尔在美联储大楼建设管理 上表现糟糕且无能，称该项目耗资30亿美元，而这本应是一个花费约5000万美元的修缮工程。 美国债务的持续膨胀，也再次给了特朗普催促降息新的口实。特朗普一直认为，由于美联储迟迟不愿再 降息，美国政府正为其债务支付巨额利息，导致财政压力巨大。他曾表示，如果美联储将基准利率下调 3个百分点，美国一年可以省下1万亿美元。 近一段时间以来，特朗普多次炮轰鲍威尔，却也丝毫不影响后者的按兵不动。 和鲍威尔站在同一阵营的还有其他的联储成员。当地时间8月12日，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，他 支持美联储暂时维持利率不变，以防止强劲的经济活动加 ...

多位政府高官和美企高管近期都收到了特朗普的下台威胁。 当地时间8月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台发文"炮轰"高盛集团首席执行官大卫·所罗门，称其 应"找个新的经济学家"或"专注当DJ而不是经营一家大型金融机构"。所罗门曾以"DJ D-Sol"的艺名在派 对和音乐节担任DJ。 美国关税大头谁掏钱？ 高盛：先美企 再美国消费者 让特朗普把高盛CEO"贬"为DJ的导火索，是高盛近日的一份报告。 高盛首席经济学家简·哈祖斯在报告中对"美国收关税是谁掏钱"的问题估算称，截至6月，美国企业承担 了64%的关税成本，消费者承担了22%的关税，而外国出口商通过降低出口价格，承担了14%的关税。 高盛警告，继续这么加关税的话，到10月，美国消费者将承担67%，外国企业承担25%，美国公司承担 8%。 除了高盛CEO 特朗普还威胁这些人下台 8月12日，特朗普发文要求高盛CEO换掉其首席经济学家或自行退出，批评高盛关于市场反应和关税效 应的判断"完全错误"。特朗普称，关税为美国带来数万亿美元收入，并未引发通胀或对经济造成其他损 害，"主要是由企业和政府——其中很多是外国政府——在买单"。 由于唱衰美国政府加关税或未能配合其 ...