Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, futures closed with mixed results: 30 - year down 0.08%, 10 - year flat, 5 - year up 0.03%, 2 - year up 0.02%. The central bank conducted 157 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan. It's expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, futures showed mixed performance. The eight - department joint measures support small - and - micro - enterprise financing. Despite weak recovery momentum, China's equity assets are still favored in the long - term, and going long on stock index futures is considered [7][8][9] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold rose 3.23% and silver 2.45%. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [10][11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Last trading day, futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Investors can look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with light positions [12][13] Iron Ore - Last trading day, futures rebounded slightly. High iron - water production supports demand, and supply pressure has eased. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels, with light positions [14][15] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, futures oscillated. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke prices may resume downward adjustment. Investors can look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with light positions [16][17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and investors can consider out - of - the - money call options for manganese - silicon; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [17][18] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose. OPEC + production increase and potential consumption decline due to tariffs are concerns. Short - selling the main contract is considered [19][20][21] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose. Although trade demand has recovered, short - selling the main contract is considered [22][23] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, futures fell 1.94%. Supply pressure persists, but demand and cost factors suggest short - term strength with limited upside [24][25] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, futures declined. Supply may increase, and demand may improve. A weak - oscillation trend is expected [26][27] PVC - Last trading day, futures rose 0.32%. Supply is increasing, and demand for exports is good, but the upside is limited [28][29][30] Urea - Last trading day, futures rose 0.22%. Policy adjustments and upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a strong - oscillation trend [31][32] PX - Last trading day, the PX2509 contract rose 1.17%. Short - term caution is needed due to crude - oil price fluctuations and supply - demand changes [33] PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2509 contract rose 1.14%. Supply - demand structure has improved, but cost support is insufficient. Interval trading is considered [34] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, futures fell 0.23%. Supply has decreased, and demand has improved, but cost factors limit the upside. Oscillation adjustment is expected [35][36] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the 2506 contract rose 0.37%. Terminal demand has slightly recovered, but cost support is weak. Follow - up cost - based oscillation is expected [37] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the 2506 contract rose 0.36%. Raw - material prices are oscillating, and supply - demand fundamentals have improved. Follow - up cost - based operation is expected [38][39] Soda Ash - Last trading day, the 2509 contract rose 0.47%. Short - term supply has decreased, but long - term oversupply persists. A stable - oscillation trend is expected [40] Glass - Last trading day, the 2509 contract rose 0.98%. There is no obvious driving force in the market, and short - term sentiment may recover [41][43] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the 2509 contract fell 1.33%. Production has decreased, and demand is limited. Attention should be paid to enterprise operations and liquid - chlorine prices [44] Pulp - Last trading day, the 2507 contract rose 0.59%. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. A short - term rebound is expected, but long - term factors need attention [45][46][47] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, futures rose 0.59%. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Risk control is recommended in the short - term [48] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose. After a significant increase, there is a callback pressure. Short - selling the main contract is considered [49][50] Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is uncertain. A bearish - oscillation trend is expected [51] Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. Cost support is strong, but demand is weak. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment recovery [52] Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - Last trading day, industrial - silicon futures fell, and polysilicon futures rose. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and a bearish view is maintained [53] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose 1.91%, and soybean - oil futures rose 0.23%. Supply is expected to be abundant, and different strategies are recommended for each [54][55][56] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. Domestic imports have decreased, and inventory is low. Considering expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [57][58][59] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures showed mixed results. Chinese imports and inventories have changed. Buying rapeseed meal after a correction is considered [60][61] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton oscillated. Tariff suspension may benefit exports. Buying on dips is considered [62][63][65] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated weakly. Brazilian production is low, and domestic inventory is low. Interval trading is recommended [66][68][69] Apples - Last trading day, apple futures had little change. Some regions may have reduced production, and inventory is low. Buying after a correction is considered [71][72][73] Hogs - Yesterday, the national average hog price fell. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. Temporary observation is recommended [74][75] Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price was flat. Supply is increasing, and selling on rebounds is considered [76][77] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose 0.09%, and starch futures fell 0.15%. Supply pressure exists in the short - term, and temporary observation is recommended [78][79] Logs - Last trading day, the 2507 contract was flat. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The market has no obvious driving force [80][81]

集运欧线大幅下挫工业硅再创上市新低 集运欧线21日大幅下挫，新晋主力08合约跌超7%。现货市场方面，地中海航运公布6月上旬欧线实际报价为1580/2640，涨幅不及其前期宣涨目标但相较5月 底运价仍有明显抬升。据华闻期货分析，目前地中海率先提涨带来的利多情绪已基本释放，市场预计航司端6月初调价幅度总体接近该水平，短期盘面进一 步上行驱动不足，后续还应重点关注其余主流航司开舱报价情况。需求方面，受航司远端提涨推动，欧线下游5月末订舱情绪有所改善，目前船舶基本满 舱、少部分航司爆舱，或对市场预期起到一定支撑作用。不过市场期待的旺季出货潮尚未得到兑现，未来还需继续跟踪下游货量走势。供应方面，美线货量 激增预计将刺激各航线运力回流美线，但当前对欧线供应压力的改善效果有限。从最新船期教据来看，6月上半月运力投放仍相对较多，对运价提涨构成潜 在压力。总体上看，欧线下游供需宽松格局暂未得到扭转，后续运价提涨进程依然存不确定性，预计盘面还将面临一定多空博弈。 新华财经北京5月21日电（郭洲洋、左元）21日，氧化铝涨超3%，黄金、菜粕 、白银涨超2%，豆粕、二号大豆、高硫燃料油、SC原油、对二甲苯、PTA、 沪锡、一号大豆涨超 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the new trade agreement between the US and the UK, while appearing to focus on tariff reductions, is primarily aimed at isolating China [1][5] - The agreement allows for increased access of US agricultural products to the UK market in exchange for tariff reductions on UK automobiles, which is expected to protect the UK automotive industry and related jobs [1][3] - Analysts suggest that this could lead to a significant influx of US agricultural products into the UK market, potentially replacing the Chinese orders for soybeans and pork that were previously canceled [3] Group 2 - The trade agreement includes stringent safety requirements from the US regarding the steel and pharmaceutical industries, indicating a potential squeeze on Chinese enterprises in these sectors [5] - The US has hinted that China is the intended target of these regulations, revealing ongoing ambitions to suppress and isolate China [5] - China's response emphasizes the importance of UK-China relations and the potential for mutual benefits through cooperation, countering the US-UK efforts to exclude China from supply chains [7][9] Group 3 - The Chinese government expresses a willingness to work with the UK to foster a healthy and stable bilateral relationship, which could mitigate geopolitical risks posed by US unilateralism [9] - China's stance is framed as a commitment to multilateralism and cooperation, contrasting with the isolationist approach of the US and UK [9] - The article suggests that the real concern for the US and UK may not be China's market share, but rather China's adherence to principles of openness and mutual benefit, which are crucial in the current era of globalization [9]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Wang Yi and Luhut emphasizes the need for China and Indonesia to strengthen cooperation and resist unilateralism and trade bullying in the face of global challenges [1] Group 1: Bilateral Relations - Wang Yi highlighted the importance of adhering to the original intention of establishing diplomatic relations and maintaining independence and autonomy in cooperation with Indonesia [1] - China congratulated Indonesia on becoming a formal member of BRICS, indicating a strengthening of ties and mutual support in international platforms [1] Group 2: Regional Stability and Cooperation - The discussion focused on promoting the Bandung spirit of unity and cooperation to maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - There is a commitment to advancing regional economic integration and building a shared community in the Asia-Pacific, which reflects a strategic partnership between China and Indonesia [1]

Group 1: Market Analysis - Precious metals are currently in a phase of strong fluctuations and adjustments, with international gold prices showing strong support around $3000 per ounce [1] - Short-term outlook for gold indicates a potential pullback to the $3100-$3200 per ounce range, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and fluctuating U.S. tariff policies [2] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals is expected to continue, with recent pullbacks providing better entry opportunities for long positions in gold futures [2][3] Group 2: Economic Implications - The European Central Bank has warned that extreme events could make the gold market a source of financial instability in the Eurozone, particularly under geopolitical pressures [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast that gold prices will reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a potential rise to $4000 in mid-2026, citing ongoing central bank purchases as a key driver [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [11][12]. - For steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and participate with a light position [13]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [14][15]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and participate with a light position [16][17]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call option opportunities at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom range, and also consider virtual call option opportunities at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [18][19]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [20][21][22]. - For fuel oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [23][24][25]. - For PX, it is recommended to participate cautiously, pay attention to the changes in crude oil at the cost end and macro - policy adjustments [26]. - For PTA, it is recommended to conduct range trading and control risks [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and caution is needed for the upside space, paying attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [29]. - For staple fiber, it is recommended to participate cautiously and control risks [30][31]. - For bottle chips, it is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost price changes [32]. - For soda ash, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [33][34]. - For glass, it is expected that the market sentiment will be repaired to some extent in the short term, but the actual repair degree remains to be seen [35]. - For caustic soda, it is necessary to focus on the operation of enterprise equipment and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [36][37]. - For pulp, it is expected that the market will rebound in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether international pulp mills initiate substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption - stimulating policies [39][40]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to run weakly [41]. - For copper, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [42][43]. - For tin, it is expected that the price will face greater pressure above, and a bearish and fluctuating view is taken [44]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [45]. - For industrial silicon/polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season, and maintain a bearish judgment overall [46][47][48]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, it is recommended to wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call option opportunities at the bottom support range [49][50]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [51][52]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to go long after the callback of rapeseed meal [53][54]. - For cotton, wait to go long at low levels after the callback [55][56][58]. - For sugar, conduct range - trading operations [61][62][63]. - For apples, focus on the opportunity to go long after the callback [64][65][66]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [67][68]. - For eggs, consider short - selling at high levels after the rebound [69][70]. - For corn and starch, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [71][72]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price runs lightly, with weak support for the futures price [73][74]. Summaries According to the Catalog Chemical Products - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day's main contract fell 0.31%. Supply decreased, port arrivals decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and demand improved, but the lack of cost drivers suppressed the upside space. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [29]. - **Staple Fiber**: The previous trading day's 2506 main contract fell 0.58%. The supply load was at a relatively high level, the downstream terminal demand improved slightly, but the cost support was insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust following the cost end in the short term [30][31]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day's 2506 main contract fell 0.61%. The raw material cost support remained, the supply load increased, and the downstream demand improved. It is expected to follow the cost end in the future [32]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 1284 yuan/ton, down 1.91%. In the short term, supply decreased due to device maintenance, but in the long - term, the oversupply situation was difficult to alleviate. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [33][34]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 1018 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. There was no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the market sentiment will be repaired to some extent in the short term [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 2586 yuan/ton, up 1.77%. Production decreased due to device maintenance, and the demand for alumina increased. It is necessary to focus on the operation of enterprise equipment and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [36][37]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day's 2507 main contract closed at 5390 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The supply was abundant, the downstream consumption was weak, and it is expected that the market will rebound in the short term [39][40]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract fell 0.5%. The supply - demand structure improved, the inventory decreased, but the cost support was insufficient. It is recommended to conduct range trading [27][28]. - **PX**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract fell 0.3%. The PXN spread continued to repair, the supply load decreased, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [26]. Metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The previous trading day's main contract closed down 2.27% to 61180 yuan/ton. The supply increased, the demand weakened, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to run weakly [41]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day's Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, and the price adjusted in the high - level range. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [42][43]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day's Shanghai tin rose 0.15% to 264390 yuan/ton. There was a game between the current shortage pattern and the loose expectation. It is expected that the price will face greater pressure above [44]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel fell 0.31% to 123520 yuan/ton. The cost support was strong, but the demand was weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [45]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: The previous trading day's industrial silicon main contract closed at 8130 yuan/ton, down 1.87%; the polysilicon main contract closed at 37150 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The demand was weak, the supply reduction was limited, and it is recommended to focus on the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day's soybean meal main contract fell 0.55% to 2886 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.31% to 7776 yuan/ton. The supply of soybeans was expected to be loose, the upward pressure on soybean meal was high, and for soybean oil, consider virtual call option opportunities at the bottom support range [49][50]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The domestic inventory was accumulating. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [51][52]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The German winter rapeseed planting area increased. The domestic rapeseed inventory decreased, the rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased. Consider the opportunity to go long after the callback of rapeseed meal [53][54]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day's domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The Sino - US tariff suspension was beneficial to cotton. Wait to go long at low levels after the callback [55][56][58]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day's domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. The Brazilian production was low but was expected to increase. The domestic inventory was low and the import volume was low. Conduct range - trading operations [61][62][63]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day's domestic apple futures fluctuated little. The inventory was at a low level in recent years. Focus on the opportunity to go long after the callback [64][65][66]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day's national average price of live pigs was 14.5 yuan/kg, down 0.01. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see [67][68]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day's main - producing area egg average price was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.10; the main - selling area egg average price was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.10. The supply was expected to increase, and consider short - selling at high levels after the rebound [69][70]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day's corn main contract fell 0.55% to 2330 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract fell 0.78% to 2669 yuan/ton. The supply pressure was still there in the short term, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [71][72]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day's 2507 main contract closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The supply was expected to increase, the demand was weak, and the price was running weakly [73][74]. Others - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum needed to be strengthened, and it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, with caution advised [5][6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.54%, and the silver main contract rose 0.40%. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [10][11][12]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The demand for rebar was weak, but there was short - term support in the peak season. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The supply - demand pattern improved, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell significantly. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16][17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract fell 0.24%, and the silicon iron main contract fell 0.45%. The demand was weak, and different strategies are recommended for manganese silicon and silicon iron [18][19]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the price pressure was high. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [20][21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated slightly. The inventory decreased, and the demand recovered. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [23][24][25].

被问及如何看待新交所与港交所在吸引中概股回流方面的竞争，罗文才说道，"我认为两家交易所都有 各自的优势，并且都发挥着重要作用。"在他看来，新交所是通往亚洲的重要门户，港交所则是通往中 国的重要门户。在亚洲市场继续增长的过程中，两家交易所和两个金融中心共同扮演着重要角色，都有 发挥作用的空间。" 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 文 | 新浪财经 徐苑蕾 5月19日至20日，深交所2025全球投资者大会在深圳举行。大会主题为"新质生产力：投资中国新机遇 ——开放创新的深圳市场"。大会期间，世界交易所联合会主席、新加坡交易所集团（以下简称"新交 所"）首席执行官罗文才与新浪财经对话。 谈及全球资本市场的发展趋势，罗文才表示，目前市场存在诸多不确定事件，逆全球化趋势显然仍在上 升。在这种环境下，交易所之间的合作更为重要。不确定性中也存在着机遇，合作是交易所能够找到更 多机会并为投资者创造更多可能性的关键。 据了解，2022年底，深交所与新交所开通"深新ETF互通"，双向上市创业板指数、双创50指数等ETF产 品。此外，2023年5月，上交所与新交所签署ETF产品互通合作谅解备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent positive developments in China-US trade relations following negotiations, highlighting a significant increase in shipping orders and a reduction in tariffs, which reflects a deeper economic interdependence between the two countries [3][7][33]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Market Reactions - After the China-US trade negotiations, there was a nearly 300% surge in container orders for shipping to the US, indicating a warming of trade relations [3][7]. - The initial tariffs imposed by the US reached as high as 245%, but post-negotiation, they have been reduced to 10%, 20%, and 30%, which many businesses can manage [7][10]. - The negotiations have led to a positive response in both the US and European markets, with a notable recovery in the Chinese stock market [7][10]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Negotiations - Various factors contributed to the successful negotiations, including the recognition by US businesses of the detrimental effects of the trade war on the US economy [8][10]. - Major multinational companies, such as Apple and Walmart, have significant stakes in the Chinese market, which has pressured the US government to reconsider its tariff policies [9][10]. Group 3: Future of Globalization - The article emphasizes that globalization remains a dominant trend despite the presence of anti-globalization sentiments, as countries are increasingly interdependent [22][23]. - China is positioned to leverage its robust infrastructure and talent pool to enhance its global competitiveness [23][30]. - The shift towards a "world for the world" strategy is seen as essential for Chinese companies to mitigate risks and expand their market presence globally [26][30]. Group 4: Opportunities for Chinese Companies - Chinese companies are encouraged to invest in the US to mitigate potential trade risks, with examples of successful investments in various sectors [25][30]. - The article suggests that collaboration with local US businesses can create mutually beneficial partnerships, enhancing the viability of Chinese investments in the US [29][30]. Group 5: Conclusion and Outlook - The article concludes with an optimistic view of the future for Chinese enterprises, emphasizing the importance of adapting to the evolving global landscape and the potential for increased cooperation and mutual benefit in international trade [32][33].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. Treasury and the implications of the U.S. debt crisis**. It also touches on the **impact of the Trump tax cuts** and the **potential of domestic computing power companies** in the context of globalization and economic uncertainty. Core Insights and Arguments - The **U.S. Treasury has not issued new debt**, leading to a **$2 trillion fiscal gap** that relies on the TGA account and unconventional measures. The Treasury Secretary warns that funds will be exhausted by August, necessitating a resolution before mid-July to avoid a repeat of the 2019 debt ceiling crisis [1][3] - The **Trump tax cuts** are compared to Reagan's supply-side reforms, with the assertion that their stimulative effect is weaker than direct fiscal spending. If the 2025 tax cuts lack fiscal support, it could lead to an economic downturn and potentially trigger a global financial crisis [1][4] - Three paths to alleviate the U.S. fiscal crisis are identified: **over-issuing U.S. debt, increasing tariffs, and debt default**. Each of these paths would exacerbate the debt crisis by increasing supply, reducing dollar trade volume, and lowering credit ratings, respectively [1][5] - In the current environment of increasing uncertainty, there is a recommendation to embrace **anti-fragile safe assets**, including **immediate net assets** (like gold and similar assets) and **future cash flows** from domestic computing power companies that have a certainty premium [1][6] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **rise of de-globalization** is increasing environmental uncertainty, leading capital to seek certainty. Anti-fragile safe assets, such as gold and domestic computing power companies, are seen as more attractive due to their principal certainty and future cash flow premiums [1][7] - The focus on **AI domestic patents** is emphasized, as de-globalization makes computing chips non-tradable, thereby securing market share for domestic computing power companies and providing future cash flow certainty [2][6]

5月19日（周一），黄金快速拉升，伦敦现货黄金一度涨超1.5%，触及3249.83美元／ 盎司；COMEX黄 金直线拉升，最高触及3252.9美元／ 盎司，上金所SGE9999金价突破750元／克整数关口，沪金主力期 货合约最高触及761元／克。 美国市场则呈现"债汇双杀"局面，长期美国国债期货价格跌幅更为明显。截至发稿，美国30年期国债收 益率升至5.02%，创2023年11月以来最高水平，美国10年期国债收益率攀升至4.5%以上；美元指数短线 下挫，跌幅一度达0.7%。 金价上涨受多重因素推动。一方面，美国主权评级下调加剧了市场对美元资产的担忧，"卖出美国"交易 策略重启，避险资金提振了黄金走势。根据新华财经数据显示，在惠誉和标准普尔分别于2023年和2011 年下调美国主权信用评级后，黄金在三个月内均呈现出上行的走势。另一方面，美联储近期表态令市场 降息预期小幅回暖。此外，全球央行黄金购买需求保持强劲，为金价提供了支撑。 新华财经上海5月19日电（葛佳明） 国际评级机构穆迪16日将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，美 国在三大主要国际信用评级机构中的主权信用评级均失去了Aaa的最高等级，引发国际市场 ...