Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations and indicating stability in monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR has not changed for six consecutive months since a 10 basis point drop in May 2025, reflecting a stable macroeconomic environment [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.4%, indicating efforts to maintain market liquidity [1]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) has shown a downward trend, with the overnight Shibor down by 5.6 basis points to 1.364% [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Recent economic data shows a decline in domestic investment, consumption, and industrial production, raising concerns about economic growth momentum [3]. - The PBOC is expected to implement new monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts, to stimulate economic growth and address high mortgage rates [3]. - The anticipated measures include targeted reductions in the 5-year LPR to alleviate the burden of high housing loan rates and stimulate market demand [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. The bond market environment has improved. Considering the central bank's bond - buying, the bottom of Treasury bond futures is supported. With the slowdown of economic momentum, the expectation of monetary easing is expected to heat up again, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips. [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The November LPR quote remained unchanged, which was in line with expectations and had limited impact on the bond market. The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The buying of 5 - year and 7 - year Treasury bond cash bonds was relatively obvious, possibly related to the central bank's bond - buying. [8] - **Interest Rate Cash Bonds**: The yields of major - term interest - rate cash bonds in the inter - bank market all changed within a narrow range. By 16:30 PM, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond 250016 reported 1.8090%, up 0.2bp. [9] - **Funding Market**: After the impact of the tax payment period ended, the inter - bank funding market became looser, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. There were 310 billion yuan of open - market maturities, and the central bank injected 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 10 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index dropped significantly, indicating further relief of funding pressure. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits dropped 5.69bp to 1.3652%, and the 7 - day rate dropped 2.74bp to 1.4857%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.64%. [10] - **Conclusion**: In terms of the economic fundamentals, since June, various domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken, especially the investment side has accelerated its decline. The export, which was the main support of the economy, also turned negative in October. The combination of export decline and weak domestic demand led to price indicators remaining low. The fundamentals still face certain pressure. In terms of policies, the current combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies has been strengthened again. The restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. The credit - expansion effect of loose fiscal policies may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited. The central bank may increase the space for easing. Overall, the bond market environment has improved, but there are still some uncertain disturbances. [11][12] 2. Industry News - The November LPR quote remained stable: the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3%, and the over - 5 - year variety was reported at 3.5%. [13] - The Shanghai Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association organized an integrity initiative to strengthen industry self - discipline and maintain the real - estate market order. [13] - Recently, multiple "two - important" construction projects have started. "Two - important" construction will be an important focus of the stable - growth policy, and infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate. [13] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will issue a notice on referring to the cost index of lithium iron phosphate and standardizing industry development to prevent low - price dumping. [14] - Japan plans to launch a new expenditure plan of 17.7 trillion yen and needs to issue more bonds to raise funds. [15] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on the trading of various Treasury bond futures contracts on November 20, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest, were presented. [6] - **Money Market**: Information on the term - structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged - repo rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged - repo rate, was provided. [29][31] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) was provided. [34]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, reflecting stable market expectations and a consistent monetary policy environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections LPR Announcement - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged from previous values [1]. - The announcement aligns with market expectations, indicating stability in the monetary policy [1]. Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, while 190 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 110 billion yuan [1]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a downward trend, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 5.6 basis points to 1.364% and the 7-day Shibor down by 2.7 basis points to 1.46% [1]. Economic Context and Future Outlook - The stability of the LPR is attributed to a strong macroeconomic performance, with key indicators such as investment, consumption, and industrial production showing signs of decline [2][3]. - The potential for new monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts, is anticipated to stimulate domestic demand and support economic growth [3]. - The regulatory body may consider lowering the 5-year LPR to address high mortgage rates and boost housing market demand [4].

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, consistent with previous values, indicating stability in the monetary policy environment [1][3][4]. Group 1: LPR and Market Reactions - The LPR has not changed for six consecutive months since a 10 basis point drop in May 2025, reflecting a stable lending rate environment [4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, indicating efforts to maintain market liquidity [3]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a downward trend in most tenors, with the overnight Shibor down by 5.6 basis points to 1.364% [3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The stability of the LPR is attributed to a strong macroeconomic performance driven by unexpected export growth and rapid development in new productive sectors, leading to a decrease in the need for counter-cyclical adjustments [4][5]. - There are expectations for potential monetary policy easing, including interest rate cuts, to stimulate economic growth in response to recent declines in investment, consumption, and industrial production [5]. - The regulatory authorities may consider lowering the 5-year LPR to address high residential mortgage rates and stimulate housing market demand [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Team: Macro Financial Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. The bond market environment has improved. Considering the central bank's bond - purchasing and the slowdown of economic momentum, there is support at the bottom of treasury bond futures. Investors should seize the opportunity to lay out positions at low prices. In the short term, weak economic data and the passing of the tax - payment peak may boost the market's expectation of monetary easing and reduce disturbances to the bond market [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: Affected by the tightening of inter - bank funds and stock market fluctuations, the sentiment in the bond market was weak, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest - bearing bonds changed narrowly, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 rising 0.3bp to 1.8080%. The money market was tight in the morning and gradually loosened in the afternoon. The central bank achieved a net injection of 1.15 billion yuan. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 10.64bp to 1.4221%, and the 7 - day rate fell 1.08bp to 1.5131%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.64% [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: Since June, domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken. Exports turned negative in October, and price indicators remained low. Currently, loose monetary and fiscal policies are being strengthened. The restart of treasury bond trading brings direct buying demand to the bond market. The impact of wide - credit effects on the bond market should be limited. The bond market's negative factors have basically been released, and it is in a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are still some uncertain disturbances, overall, the bond market environment has improved, and investors should seize the opportunity to lay out positions at low prices [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - Diplomatic events: The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs was dissatisfied with the results of the Sino - Japanese consultation, and the Chinese side demanded that Japan correct its wrong remarks. The US modified the transparency rules for patent invalidation applications, which was a discriminatory restriction on Chinese enterprises, and the Chinese side would closely monitor the situation [13] - Domestic policies: The Chinese Premier called for free trade and strengthened cooperation within the SCO. Local financial departments are actively deploying the reserve work for special bond projects in 2026, and multiple "two - major" construction projects have started, which is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate of infrastructure investment [13][14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Presented the trading data of treasury bond futures on November 19, including contract details such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, and open interest [6] - **Money Market**: Included the changes in SHIBOR term structure and trend, and the changes in inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Showed the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) [34]

2025.11. 20 本文字数：913，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 11月，两个期限品种的LPR（贷款市场报价利率）报价保持不变，符合市场预期，这也是LPR连续6 个月保持不变。 11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，当日LPR为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年 期以上LPR为3.5%。 银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小，当前报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。三季度末商业银行净 息差为1.42%，尽管与二季度末持平，但较去年四季度末下降了10个基点。 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。近年来企业和居民 融资成本低位下行，说明货币条件比较宽松、资金供给比较充裕。在这种情况下，引导LPR下降并 非当务之急。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来 出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，宏观经济走势稳中偏强，逆周期调节需求相应下 降，货币政策保持较强定力。 但受内外部多重因素影响，近期经济增长动能有所回落，其中，10月国内投资、消费、工业生产等 宏观数据下行势头引发关注，出口增速由正 ...

图源：中国人民银行官网 自2025年5月下调后，LPR已连续6个月"按兵不动"。 11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布贷款市场报价利率（LPR）：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。两个期限LPR均 与上月持平。 | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融中场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | 根国生姿 | | | ...

11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年11月20日贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）为1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。至此，LPR两个品种报价已连续6个月保持不 变。 多位受访的业内人士指出，本月LPR继续"按兵不动"符合预期。展望未来，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有 一定实施空间，但边际效率已经明显下降。市场对未来大幅度降准降息的预期有所减弱。下一阶段，货 币政策或将更加注重精准、协同和均衡。 缺乏下调动力 LPR报价继续"按兵不动" LPR报价持续"按兵不动"，业内人士指出，这符合市场预期。从LPR报价机制看，作为LPR定价基础的7 天期逆回购操作利率为1.40%，并未发生变化，因此LPR报价较难下降。 东方金诚宏观首席分析师王青指出，尽管近期包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA级）在内的主 要中长端市场利率稳中有降，商业银行在货币市场的融资成本略有下行，但在商业银行净息差处于历史 最低点的背景下，当前报价行也缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 "6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快 发展等推动。"王青指出， ...

着眼于稳定今年四季度和明年一季度经济运行，稳增长政策如何接续发力？ 央行在三季度货币政策执行报告专栏中提出，"保持合理的利率比价关系"。董希淼认为，这表明，央行 将审慎对待利率变化，引导市场减少资金空转套利，畅通货币政策传导，增强政策的有效性。未来一段 时间，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有一定实施空间，但边际效率已经明显下降。过度放松货币金融条件可 能产生的一些负面效果也需要关注，比如资金空转、资本市场波动加大等。因此，市场应降低对下一步 大幅度降准降息的预期。 银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小，当前报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。三季度末商业银行净息差 为1.42%，尽管与二季度末持平，但较去年四季度末下降了10个基点。 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。近年来企业和居民融 资成本低位下行，说明货币条件比较宽松、资金供给比较充裕。在这种情况下，引导LPR下降并非当务 之急。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出 口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，宏观经济走势稳中偏强，逆周期调节需求相应下降， 货币政策保持较强定 ...

招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼表示，未来一段时间，预计央行将通过逆回购、 买断式逆回购等工具，加强对中短期市场流动性的调节；通过中期借贷便利（MLF）操作等措施，继 续释放中长期流动性，优化流动性期限结构，进一步满足政府债券发行、信贷投放增加等对市场流动性 的需求，保持金融市场流动性充裕，更好地引导金融机构加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持 服务。 财信金控首席经济学家、财信研究院副院长伍超明则认为，四季度降息和调降LPR概率较小。 央行数据显示，10月企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约40个基点；个 人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约8个基点。 央行发布的三季度货币政策执行报告提到，实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资条件相对宽松。 根据经济金融形势的变化，做好逆周期和跨周期调节，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。密切关注海外主 要央行货币政策变化，持续加强对银行体系流动性供求和金融市场变化的分析监测。综合运用多种货币 政策工具，保持流动性充裕。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示表示，接下来稳楼市政策需要进一步加力。预计四 ...