1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The sudden implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy by the US in early April led to a surge in global market risk - aversion demand. Risk - averse funds flowed into the bond market, pushing up the prices of treasury bond futures. The market generally expects the central bank to increase counter - cyclical adjustment, and the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has significantly increased, providing upward momentum for medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds. However, on May 7, 2025, treasury bond futures closed down across the board [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 2.50% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 5.67 trillion yuan (+1.36%); M2 year - on - year was 7.00% with no change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 1.50% (-2.97%) [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.82, up 0.58 (+0.58%); the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.2232, up 0.008 (+0.12%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.66, down 0.05 (-2.69%); DR007 was 1.68, down 0.05 (-2.72%); R007 was 1.97, down 0.32 (-13.91%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.69, down 0.04 (-2.31%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.10, with no change [9]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Not provided with specific text descriptions, but there are related charts such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds of each term, etc. [10][18] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Not provided with specific text descriptions, but there are related charts such as the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rate trends, etc. [28][31] 3.4 Spread Overview - Not provided with specific text descriptions, but there are related charts such as the inter - term spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [36][39] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Not provided with specific text descriptions, but there are related charts such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate [42][44] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Not provided with specific text descriptions, but there are related charts such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, etc. [51][54] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Not provided with specific text descriptions, but there are related charts such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract [62][65] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Not provided with specific text descriptions, but there are related charts such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract [70][76] 4. Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: With the decline of the repurchase rate and the volatile price of treasury bond futures, the 2506 contract is neutral [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [3]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [3].

衍生无限未来 从情绪修复到政策组合拳再落地 -- "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布会点评 点石成金 一、发布会解读:金融政策多箭齐发 国新办5月7日举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行行长、国家金融监督管理总局局长、中国证监会主 席介绍 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。本次发布会干货内容满满，在4月的政治局会议 结合近几个月国际形势和国内经济运行的新特征针对性地给出了一些新的指导思想和后续任务部署之后, 本次国新办发布会拉开了政策落地的帷幕。 央行行长在发布会上发布了三类共10项具体宏观货币政策。央行全方面政策发力,强化逆周期调 节,央行此次带着全面的货币工具回归,425政治局会议的政策精神快速落实。实施好适度宽松的货币政 策，加大中长期流动性供给，保持市场流动性充裕。响应市场的期待，降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点， 预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率调降为 0%将大力度助力消费金融。全面降低市场利率，下调政策利率0.1%，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率 从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25%，从总量和结构分别降低企 ...

5月7日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监 会主席吴清介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 降准又降息 央行发布3类10项措施 发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布:中国人民银行将加大宏观调控强度，推出3类10项政策，进一 步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，推动经济高质量发展。 一是数量型政策，通过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给，保持市场流动性充裕。 潘功胜在发布会上宣布，降准0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低政策利率0.1个百 分点。与此同时，将降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，5年期以上首套房利率由2.85%降至 2.6%，其他期限的利率同步调整。 业内人士表示，此次降息既充分体现了逆周期调节力度加大，也有助于支持消费；降准则有利于保持流 动性充裕，增强特定领域信贷供给能力，优化两项资本市场支持工具还有助于支持资本市场稳定发展， 多措并举支持稳就业稳企业稳市场稳预期。 二是价格型政策，下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利率，同时调降公积金贷款利率。 三是结构型政策，创设并加力实施结构性货币政策工具，支持科 ...

其中，5年以下(含5年)和5年以上首套个人住房公积金贷款利率分别调整为2.1%和2.6%；5年以下(含5年) 和5年以上第二套个人住房公积金贷款利率分别调整为不低于2.525%和3.075%。 据悉，此次住房公积金贷款利率调整范围既包括新发放的住房公积金贷款，也包括存量住房公积金贷 款。此次利率下调后，新发放的住房公积金贷款将执行新的利率，此前已发放的住房公积金贷款，利率 将在2026年1月1日起下调。这可直接减轻借款人利息负担，等同于增加居民收入，提升消费能力。 商报讯(记者苗露)下调结构性货币政策工具利率、增加支农支小再贷款额度、优化两项支持资本市场的 货币政策工具……昨日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办新闻发布会上宣布，将推出一揽子货币政策 举措，主要有三大类共十项措施。而除降低存款准备金率、降低利率等总量措施外，还涉及多项结构性 货币政策工具。 业内人士表示，此次降息既充分体现了逆周期调节力度加大，也有助于支持消费；降准则有利于保持流 动性充裕，增强特定领域信贷供给能力，优化两项资本市场支持工具还有助于支持资本市场稳定发展， 多措并举支持稳就业稳企业稳市场稳预期。 三大类十项措施重磅出台 潘功胜表示， ...

Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a series of monetary policy measures starting from May 7, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the re-lending rate and a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for financial institutions [1][2] - The adjustments reflect a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance aimed at supporting employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [1] Long-term Liquidity Support - The RRR cut is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, addressing structural liquidity issues [2] - The PBOC's actions are designed to enhance the stability of bank liabilities and reduce the cost of bank funding, thereby supporting long-term liquidity supply [2][3] Financing Cost Reduction - The PBOC lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a decrease in loan market quotation rates (LPR) and deposit rates, ultimately reducing the comprehensive financing costs for the real economy [4] - The reduction in housing provident fund loan rates is expected to save residents over 20 billion yuan annually in interest payments, stimulating housing demand and supporting the real estate market [5] Structural Policy Tools - The PBOC's decision to lower the rates on structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points is a significant move, impacting various long-term financing tools [6][7] - This comprehensive rate cut is expected to save banks between 15 billion to 20 billion yuan in funding costs annually, encouraging banks to support economic structural transformation [6][7]

宣布降息降准、设立服务消费与养老再贷款、完善房地产融资制度、发布公募基金重要改革举措……5月7日上午，三位金融管理部门"一把手"亮相国新办发 布会，推出一揽子金融政策，释放稳市场稳预期的强信号。 卜 " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " 0.1个百分点 )由此前 自5月15 下调金融机构存款准备 不含已执行5%存款准 下调汽车金融公司和金 存款准备金率5个百分! 一揽子金融政策聚焦哪些方面？ 发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜"一口气"宣布了3大类10项金融举措，覆盖货币政策诸多方面； 金融监管总局局长李云泽介绍了8项增量政策，涉及房地产金融和险资入市等市场热点； 中国证监会主席吴清围绕持续稳定和活跃资本市场，宣布多项重磅举措…… 当日，中国人民银行宣布自5月8日起，下调个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点。以金 ...

2025 年 5 月 7 日 总量研究 三类十项一揽子政策超预期 ——2025 年 5 月 7 日利率债观察 要点 1、三类十项一揽子政策超预期 在今日（注：2025 年 5 月 7 日）召开的新闻会上，潘功胜行长"一口气"公布 了包括降准、降息在内的三类十项一揽子货币政策措施，这大大地超出了市场的 预期。有些投资者猜到了今日会有政策出台，但大概率想不到政策能有十项之多， 且既有数量型的，又有价格型的，还有结构型的。有些投资者猜到了今日会有"结 构性降息"，但大概率想不到所有结构性货币政策工具利率都会下调 25bp，更 想不到更为关键的 OMO 利率（及与其联动的临时正、逆回购和 SLF 利率）也会 下调 10bp。 近期外部冲击影响加大，我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固。在此 背景下，4 月 25 日召开的政治局会议要求"既定政策早出台早见效，根据形势 变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固经济发展和社会 稳定的基本面"。显然，今日一揽子政策措施的出台是货币当局对政治局会议精 神雷厉风行的落实。 "适时降准降息"对债市有何影响？——2025 年 4 月 25 日利率债观察 一揽子 ...

Group 1 - The report outlines a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting transformation, introduced during a press conference by key financial leaders [1][2][7] - The monetary policy includes three categories and ten specific measures, focusing on quantity, price, and structure to enhance liquidity and lower financing costs [10][11][12] - A targeted support for the real estate sector is highlighted, with a reduction in housing provident fund loan rates expected to stimulate demand and stabilize the market [16][17] Group 2 - The capital market is set to receive increased funding through systematic reforms, including the expansion of insurance capital investments and adjustments to regulatory frameworks to encourage long-term investments [17][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable capital market structure, aiming to attract long-term capital and enhance market resilience through various policy measures [20][21] - Historical data indicates that previous reductions in reserve requirements have led to positive market reactions, suggesting that the current policy measures may similarly boost market sentiment [21][24] Group 3 - Future investment opportunities are identified in high-growth sectors such as domestic computing power, industrial machinery, and defense industries, driven by policy support and global technological trends [28] - The report suggests that sectors sensitive to interest rate declines, such as real estate development and home improvement, may benefit from the current economic policies [28] - Consumer sectors, particularly those related to discretionary spending and healthcare, are expected to thrive due to lower mortgage rates and supportive consumption policies [28]

每经记者 周逸斐 每经编辑 陈星 5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，为进一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，人民银行将加大宏观调控强度，推出一揽子货币政策措 施。其中，优化两项支持资本市场的货币政策工具，将5000亿元证券基金保险公司互换便利和3000亿元股票回购增持再贷款两 个工具的额度合并使用，总额度8000亿元。 去年四季度央行推出了两项支持资本市场的货币政策工具，这半年来央行做了哪些工作？如何评价这些工具使用效果？下阶段 如何完善工具设计？ 潘功胜回答《每日经济新闻》记者上述提问时表示，在回购增持再贷款方面，将贷款最长期限由1年延长到3年，鼓励银行发放 信用贷款，将上市公司回购增持股票的自有资金比例要求从30%下降到10%。 互换便利已开展2次操作、总金额1050亿元 潘功胜告诉《每日经济新闻》记者，去年人民银行会同证监会、金融监管总局等部门创设了两项支持资本市场的工具。这两项 资本市场支持工具首期额度分别是5000亿元、3000亿元，适应了市场需求，受到市场广泛欢迎，起到了提振投资者信心、改善 金融市场预期、增强资本市场内在稳定性 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-05-07 中美摩擦与政策观望期内，国债期货涨跌分化 核心观点 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：3月5日，十四届全国人大三次会议指出将实施更加积极的财政政策，今年赤字率拟4%， 一般公共预算支出规模29.7万亿元；拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，拟安排地方政府专项债券4.4万亿元，今年 合计新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元；实施适度宽松的货币政策。 2）通胀：3月CPI同比下降0.1%。 资金面：（3）央行：2025-05-06，央行以固定利率1.5%、数量招标方式开展了4050亿元7天的逆回购操作，操作利 率为1.5%。（4）货币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.702%、1.707%、1.737% 和1.732%，回 购利率近期回落。 市场面：（5）收盘价：2025-05-06，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.31元、106.06元、109.05元、120.97元。涨跌 幅：TS、TF、T和TL涨跌幅分别为-0.06%、-0.04%、0.00%和 0.11%。（7）TS、TF、T和TL净基差均值分别为-0.032 元、-0.055元、-0.1 ...