Group 1 - The current market environment is seeing a renewed interest in safe havens, with discussions around whether Bitcoin will recover and attract investment away from U.S. equities [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have experienced significant price increases, with gold rising 75% recently, raising questions about the sustainability of these gains [5][6] - There has been a notable influx of capital into the precious metals sector, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safety trades [4] Group 2 - The performance of gold and silver is being analyzed separately, with gold seen as having macroeconomic support due to its accumulation by central banks, while silver's recent popularity may not be sustainable [6][7] - Historical comparisons show that gold's cumulative returns have recently surpassed those of the S&P 500, which raises concerns about market health and the nature of these assets [7]

1月27日，当前全球避险资产正处于极度分化的格局中。周一，比特币在8.8万美元关口附近表现出明显 的滞涨，而黄金与白银则在经历了一轮"史诗级"飙升后开始显露疲态。FXGT认为，虽然比特币已从周 末因政府停摆忧虑引发的8.77万美元低点略微反弹，但整体动能依然匮乏。与此形成鲜明对比的是，贵 金属市场在过去24小时内增加的市值规模堪称惊人，甚至有分析指出其单日市值增长量已足以覆盖整个 比特币的市场份额，这种资金流向的偏差反映出市场对数字资产流动性的暂时疑虑。 在宏观金融环境方面，美元指数（DXY）正处于自去年9月以来的疲软区间。近期市场数据显示，受美 日联合干预汇市以提振日元的传闻影响，美元兑日元一度跌至154.07水平，跌幅超过1%。尽管美元走 弱通常利好避险资产，但比特币并未如期爆发。FXGT认为，这种价格背离主要源于投资者的避险偏好 向实物贵金属倾斜，金价一度冲破5，100美元，银价最高触及118美元。然而，随着金银价格分别回落 至5，043美元和108美元附近，这种由短期恐慌驱动的涨势似乎已接近阶段性顶部。 针对加密市场的内部结构，FXGT表示，资本流出的迹象依然显著。上周现货比特币ETF的累计净流出 额 ...

责任编辑：陈平 1月27日，全球金融市场正在见证一场罕见的贵金属史诗级行情。周一，受国际避险情绪深度发酵影 响，黄金与白银双双开启"破竹"模式，刷新历史高位。OEXN认为，这种极端的涨势反映了投资者在面 对国际关系重组、主权债券收益率动荡以及货币信用风险时的避险防御心理。随着金价成功站稳每盎司 5100美元上方，白银亦展现出强劲的补涨势头，贵金属已不仅仅是财富的避风港，更成为了衡量全球市 场恐慌程度的精密仪表。 在宏观政策层面，本周全球央行议息周的到来为市场注入了复杂预期。OEXN表示，尽管外界对美联储 （FOMC）存在强烈的降息预期压力，但多数分析师预测美联储将维持利率现状，以观察高通胀环境下 的经济韧性。与此同时，全球约17家央行也将密集发声，除非洲部分央行可能采取宽松姿态外，巴西、 加拿大等主要经济体大概率将按兵不动。OEXN认为，在各国央行试图维持独立性并平衡宏观数据的关 键节点，政策路径的任何细微偏差都可能引发贵金属市场的二次脉冲。 外汇市场的剧烈波动同样为金银牛市提供了强力支撑。OEXN表示，由于市场流传美国可能与日本联合 干预汇市以遏制强势美元，美元指数已应声跌至四个月低位。纽约联储近期对金融机 ...

国际金价历史性突破 5100 美元关口；资金面延续紧平衡态势，债市震荡盘整 【内容摘要】1 月 26 日，税期结束，但资金面紧平衡态势未见明显缓和；债市震荡盘整；转 债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【央行：维护金融市场稳健运行和金融体系整体稳定】1 月 22 日，央行召开 2026 年宏观审慎 工作会议，总结 2025 年宏观审慎管理和跨境人民币业务工作，分析当前形势，部署 2026 年工 作。会议要求，2026 年宏观审慎工作要继续按照构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系部署，强 化中央银行宏观审慎管理功能，持续完善宏观审慎和金融稳定委员会工作机制，逐步拓展宏观 审慎政策覆盖范围，前瞻性研判系统性金融风险隐患，创新丰富政策工具箱，维护金融市场稳 健运行和金融体系整体稳定。以服务构建新发展格局为导向，进一步完善人民币跨境使用政策， 促进货物贸易便利化，优化人民币清算行布局，更好发挥货币互换作用，发展人民币离岸市场， 支持上海国际金融中心建设，更好满足各类主体人民币交易结算、投融资、风险管理等需求。 【国 ...

1月27日，周评我们说本周一开盘黄金将直接奔向5000大关，昨天周一黄金开盘后一路大涨破了5000美 元，黄金屡破新高已不算新闻，但是开启5000美元新时代却是人类历史上首次。特朗普还在任，牛市就 很难结束，其在伊朗，格陵兰岛，加拿大，古巴等多个问题搞事，地缘冲突频发，黄金是最优质的战术 性避险资产，势必会受到追捧。 1月27日，周评我们说本周一开盘黄金将直接奔向5000大关，昨天周一黄金开盘后一路大涨破了5000美 元，黄金屡破新高已不算新闻，但是开启5000美元新时代却是人类历史上首次。特朗普还在任，牛市就 很难结束，其在伊朗，格陵兰岛，加拿大，古巴等多个问题搞事，地缘冲突频发，黄金是最优质的战术 性避险资产，势必会受到追捧。 昨日我们提到了围绕5030防守多，午后黄金回踩止步5050后给出直接多，破位5100后触及5111后迅速回 落，1小时线收取长上影线，可见买盘在刷新5111高点之后的抛售力度还是挺大的，但是二度回撤至 5050形成小双底后继续多，目标看30美金以上，有没有去进场？美盘黄金探高未破高承压回落，跌破 5050低点后出现惯性下跌。 前面涨的太猛了，加速上冲之后抵达风险区，持续未能刷新新高 ...

黄金的"狂飙"还在持续。 1月26日，伦敦现货黄金再创下历史性突破，盘中触及5111.17美元/盎司，首次站上5000美元/盎司心理大关。不过，随后市场进入剧烈波动，一度跌破5000 美元/盎司。1月27日现货黄金继续在5090美元/盎司的高位附近交投。 截至发稿，伦敦金现报5090.78美元/盎司，日内涨1.61%，年初至今涨幅已超17%；COMEX黄金报5089.4美元/盎司，涨0.14%，年初至今涨幅也超17%。 | | 国际贵金属 | | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 80.790 1.61% 17.89% 5090.780 | | 伦敦银现 | 112.586 8.712 8.39% 57.29% | | COMEX黄金 | 5089.4d 6.9 0.14% 17.48% | | COMEX白银 | 112.515d -2.989 -2.59% 58.52% | 国内金饰价格迅速跟进，1月27日，主流品牌足金价格不少超过1580元/克，周大福、周大生、潮宏基足金饰品价格更是升至1585元/克。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间1月26日，美国总统 ...

Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing increase of 0.9%, while developed markets declined by 0.6%, with the MSCI Global index down 0.4%[9] - The Japanese 10Y government bond yield rose by 7.1 basis points, while the French yield saw the largest decline of 2.3 basis points[9] - COMEX silver and gold prices increased by 14.5% and 8% respectively, indicating strong performance in precious metals[9] Investor Sentiment - Trading volume in the A-share and Hong Kong markets decreased, with the Hang Seng Index trading volume down to 143 billion shares and $639 billion[21] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong increased to 13.1%, indicating a slight rise in bearish sentiment among investors[21] Earnings Expectations - The earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 was revised down from 2069 to 2065, while the S&P 500's forecast was adjusted up from 273 to 274[69] - The financial sector in Hong Kong saw the largest upward revision in earnings expectations, while the consumer staples sector experienced the most significant downward adjustment[69] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economic surprise index rose, reflecting a potential recovery, while the European index declined amid trade tensions[69] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in January, with a projected average of 1.8 rate cuts for 2026[52] Capital Flows - Recent capital inflows into the Hong Kong market totaled HKD 155 billion, with stable foreign capital contributing HKD 184 billion[64] - The overall liquidity in the U.S. is expected to remain stable, with the SOFR-OIS spread widening, indicating a slight increase in liquidity risk[52]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Amid complex global geopolitical situations, gold, as a preferred safe - haven asset, may continue to be boosted. Under the assumption of inflation and employment data stabilizing, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in the second half of the year. With the Fed's restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan, the overall bullish logic for precious metals remains intact in the medium - to - long - term. It is advisable to adopt a dip - buying strategy, while being cautious of short - term high - level pullback risks. The upper resistance for London gold is $5100/oz, and the lower support is $4900/oz; for London silver, the upper resistance is $110/oz, and the lower support is $90/oz [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1148.380 yuan/gram, up 5.1 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 28300 yuan/kg, up 1093 yuan. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold was 401,545 hands, up 5583 hands; that of Shanghai silver was 1,038,738 hands, up 72,838 hands. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 217,484 hands, up 1664 hands; those of Shanghai silver were 25,473 hands, down 12,972 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 103,029 kg, unchanged; that of Shanghai silver was 544,244 kg, down 29,566 kg [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1144.14 yuan/gram, down 0.31 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 28,388 yuan/kg, up 896 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.24 yuan/gram, down 5.37 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 88 yuan/kg, down 197 yuan [2] 3. Supply - Demand Situation - The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1086.53 tons, unchanged; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,974.40 tons, down 115.58 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC were 244,770 contracts, down 6468 contracts; for silver, they were 25,214 contracts, down 6846 contracts. The quarterly total supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the annual total demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons. The US dollar index was 97.04, down 0.46; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90%, down 0.02% [2] 4. Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 16.15, up 0.06; the CBOE gold volatility index was 32.70, up 2.69. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.37, down 0.03; the gold - silver ratio was 46.45, down 3.52 [2] 5. Industry News - US President Trump said the US was deploying troops to Iran and many ships were moving towards Iran, and a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran would soon take effect. The US also imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and ships related to Iran's energy and shipping systems. Trump said the US expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area of the US military base in Greenland. Several Democratic senators said they would vote against the government appropriation bill, increasing the risk of a partial government shutdown at the end of January. Trump may announce the new Fed chair this week, with Rick Rieder's nomination probability rising from 4% to about 50%. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January was 2.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 97.2%. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut was 15.5%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 84.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut was 0.4% [2] 6. Key Events to Watch - January 28, 02:00: US M2 money supply; January 29, 03:00: Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; January 29, 21:30: US November trade balance (imports and exports); January 30, 21:30: US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]

Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing increase, while developed markets declined, with MSCI Global down 0.4%, MSCI Developed Markets down 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up 0.9% [9][15] - In the bond market, Japan's 10Y government bond yield rose significantly by 7.1 basis points, while France's yield saw the largest decline of 2.3 basis points [9][17] - Commodities like COMEX silver and gold experienced notable increases, with silver up 14.5% [9][15] Trading Sentiment - Global trading sentiment showed divergence, with increased trading volumes in Japan and South Korea, while trading volumes in Hong Kong and the US decreased [21] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong rose to 13.1%, indicating a high level of investor sentiment, while North American sentiment remains historically elevated [21][23] Economic Expectations - The US economic surprise index increased, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership [9][52] - The European economic surprise index decreased amid renewed trade tensions between the US and Europe [9][52] Earnings Expectations - The earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2026 was marginally revised down from 2069 to 2065, with the financial sector seeing the largest upward revision [71] - The S&P 500's earnings forecast for 2025 was adjusted up from 273 to 274, with the financial sector also showing the most significant upward revision [71]

阿萨社区分析师 Eden认为，这种短时间内概率的极速跳升，反映出市场对华盛顿决策效率的深度绝望，也为避险资产的二次爆发埋下了伏笔。 近期，美国政府停摆风险骤然升温，引发了全球金融市场的剧烈震荡。根据预测平台 Polymarket 的最新数据显示，美国联邦政府在 1 月底前发生停 摆的概率已从上周的不足 10% 疯狂飙升至 78%。 这一突发性的风险溢价，正迫使投资者重新审视资产组合，尤其是在金价已然突破 5000 美元/盎司 大关的背景下，政策不确定性正成为金市最强劲 的"助燃剂"。 当全球主要预测平台纷纷给出政府关门的高概率信号时，资金流向黄金以寻求避风港已成为一种"防御性本能"。这种重新定价的过程，不仅反映了 对短期停摆的担忧，更揭示了市场对中长期规则风险的极度戒备。 本次停摆危机的直接导火索，是1月25日明尼阿波利斯发生的联邦执法人员开枪事件。由于一名边境巡逻队特工开枪导致当地居民死亡，民主党参 议员集体对国土安全部展现出强硬立场，拒绝支持包含DHS拨款的一揽子支出法案。 核心矛盾在于民主党认为移民和海关执法局及海关与边境保护局的权力已处于失控边缘。 如果参议院无法在 1 月 31 日午夜前达成共识，卫 ...