特朗普的"TACO"交易再次上演。 北京时间13日凌晨，美股股指期货开盘上涨，标普500指数期货涨近1%，纳斯达克指数期货涨1.21%，道琼斯指数期货涨0.71%。 WTI原油期货周一高开涨超1%，最新报59.68美元/桶。 现货黄金抹去开盘20美元跌幅，最新上涨0.2%，报4030美元/盎司。 值得一提的是，比特币向上升破115000美元，过去24小时内上涨4.25%，短线拉升近1000美元。截至发稿，比特币涨近4%，暂报115357.2美元。 图片来源：CoinGlass数据 消息面上，周日，中国商务部表示，动辄以高额关税进行威胁，不是与中方相处的正确之道。对于关税战，中方的立场是一贯的，我们不愿打，但也不怕 打。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首通话重要共识为引领，维护好来之不易的磋商成果，继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，在相互尊重、平等 协商基础上，通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美经贸关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。如果美方一意孤行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维 护自身正当权益。 什么是特朗普"TACO"交易？ 华创证券研报称，"TACO"——"Trump Always Chickens ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a quick drop after reaching 3900 points, with a decline of 0.94%, while the STAR 50 and ChiNext Index fell by 5.61% and 4.55% respectively, indicating significant adjustments in these sectors [1] - The battery and semiconductor sectors saw the largest declines, with multiple lithium battery ETFs and new energy ETFs dropping over 7%, and 37 ETFs, including integrated circuit and STAR chip ETFs, falling more than 6% [1] Reasons for Decline - A notable reason for the market drop is the reduction of high-risk capital, particularly affecting popular stocks like SMIC and CATL, which saw declines of nearly 8% and over 6% respectively. The adjustment of financing and margin trading rates for these stocks has raised concerns about future capital inflows [3] - The psychological barrier of 3900 points is significant, as the Shanghai Composite Index recently reached a nearly ten-year high, leading to profit-taking by investors [3] - Recent warnings from multiple institutions regarding potential AI bubbles have contributed to market anxiety, with Goldman Sachs expressing concerns about overvaluation in the tech sector [4] - Export control regulations have negatively impacted market sentiment, particularly in the lithium battery sector, although the long-term operational impact on companies may be limited [5] Investment Outlook - Short-term adjustments in the market may present good investment opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI, innovative drugs, and renewable energy, which are expected to benefit from favorable macroeconomic conditions [6] - The market is anticipated to continue experiencing wide fluctuations, but the overall outlook remains optimistic due to supportive policies and improving fundamentals [8] - The technology sector, particularly AI and semiconductor industries, is expected to maintain high growth potential, with a focus on companies that can effectively translate scientific innovations into commercial success [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. export control measures against Chinese companies have heightened market volatility and increased risk aversion, leading to a potential rise in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - On September 30, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 874.40 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.48% with a trading volume of 226,548 lots and an open interest of 256,876 lots [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai on the same day was quoted at 872.95 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 1.45 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The U.S. Department of Commerce has implemented new export control rules that affect subsidiaries of companies listed on the U.S. "Entity List" if they hold more than 50% ownership, which has been criticized by China as a severe infringement on legitimate business rights [1][2]. - China has expressed strong opposition to these measures, stating that they undermine international trade order and disrupt global supply chains, and has vowed to take necessary actions to protect its companies [1][2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Recommendations - The renewed tensions in U.S.-China trade relations, coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a declining U.S. dollar index, are expected to support gold prices in the short term [2]. - It is suggested that investors consider reducing positions ahead of the holiday period to manage risks associated with potential market fluctuations [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amidst the long - short game, the market is in the bottom - building process. It's not advisable to increase positions further, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired. The rise in crude oil prices has boosted the sentiment of long - positions to some extent, but the market pulled back after the morning surge due to capital withdrawal, showing a generally strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1198.21 points on September 19, down 199.90 points from the previous period. Its European - line price was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; the US - West route was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [2]. 3.2 Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On September 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1100.0, with a 2.67% increase. The trading volume was 24,680 lots, and the open interest was 40,900 lots, a decrease of 568 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. It's recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for bottom - building opportunities. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It's recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the subsequent direction [4]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has made no substantial progress. The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect [3]. - On September 23, a ship reported an explosion in the sea area about 222 kilometers east of Aden, Yemen, but the ship and its crew were safe and continued normal navigation [5]. - The United Nations investigation committee stated on September 23 that the Israeli government intends to establish permanent control over the Gaza Strip and ensure a Jewish majority in the occupied West Bank. In July, Israel's control area in the Gaza Strip expanded to 75% [5]. - On September 24, the Ministry of Transport, the National Railway Administration, and China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. issued a plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 to 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [5]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Price Trends - NCFI (Ningbo Export Container Freight Index) dropped to 903.32 points, down 11.71% from the previous period[2] - SCFIS (Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for Europe) decreased to 1440.24 points, down 8.1%[2] - SCFIS (Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for US West Coast) increased to 1349.84 points, up 37.7%[2] Market Sentiment - Main shipping companies significantly reduced spot freight rates, indicating a pessimistic outlook for cargo volumes ahead of the holiday[2] - The sentiment in the market is bearish, with a notable decline in freight rates observed[4] Economic Indicators - Eurozone August Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is at 50.5, above the expected 49.5, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing activity[2] - US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value reached 53.3, the highest in 39 months, exceeding expectations[3] Strategic Recommendations - It is advised not to increase positions further and to set stop-loss orders due to the current market conditions[2] - Short-term strategies suggest maintaining a weak position in main contracts while considering light positions in distant contracts[4]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [4] - With liner companies significantly reducing freight rates and pre - holiday cargo volume being concerning, the near - month contracts have obvious declines, and further position - adding is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set [2] Summary by Related Content Freight Index Changes - From September 12 to September 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) dropped 11.71% to 903.32 points; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) fell 8.1% to 1440.24 points; the NCFI (European route) decreased 14.78% to 729.42 points; the SCFIS (US West route) rose 37.7% to 1349.84 points; the NCFI (US West route) declined 9.13% to 1216.14 points [2] - From September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased 46.33 points to 1398.11 points; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) dropped 2.1% to 1125.30 points; the SCFI European route price fell 12.24% to 1154 USD/TEU; the CCFI (European route) decreased 6.2% to 1537.28 points; the SCFI US West route rose 8.27% to 2370 USD/FEU; the CCFI (US West route) declined 2.2% to 757.45 points [2] PMI Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), service PMI preliminary value was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, hitting the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous 4.5) [2] - China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from last month [3] - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4; the Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3] Trade and Tariff Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [4] Market and Contract Information - On September 17, the main contract 2510 closed at 1109.7, with a decline of 6.72%, a trading volume of 4.35 million lots, and an open interest of 4.96 million lots, an increase of 2092 lots from the previous day [4] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, try to go long lightly around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - loss [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. Temporarily wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: Take profit when each contract rises, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent situation [4] Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical Events - The EU will announce measures against Israel on September 17, including suspending trade preferences and imposing sanctions on extreme - right ministers and violent settlers, to pressure Israel to end the Gaza conflict [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are continuously declining, the situation in the Middle East is volatile, and cargo volume before the National Day is concerning. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contract is relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly try for arbitrage strategies [3]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Changes - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1349.84 points, an increase of 37.7% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 903.32 points, a decrease of 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 729.42 points, a decrease of 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1216.14 points, a decrease of 9.13% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, a decrease of 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, a decrease of 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route price was 2370 USD/FEU, an increase of 8.27% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, a decrease of 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 757.45 points, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [2]. - In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. 3.3 Contract Information - On September 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1169.7, a decrease of 0.10%, with a trading volume of 32,600 lots and an open interest of 47,500 lots, a decrease of 255 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. 3.4 Geopolitical Information - On September 16, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military is strongly attacking the infrastructure of Hamas armed personnel to create conditions for defeating Hamas and releasing Israeli hostages [5]. - On September 15, US President Trump said that Israel would not attack Qatar again [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously falling, the Middle - East situation is tense again, and spot freight rates are persistently low. The market is in the bottom - building process. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shipping Indexes**: On September 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1566.46 points, down 11.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 980.48 points, down 3.3%. On September 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1023.16 points, down 6.83%; the NCFI for the European route was 855.93 points, down 7.92%; for the US - West route, it was 1338.34 points, down 4.19%. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index on September 5 was 1444.44 points, down 0.62 points; the SCFI for the European route was 1315 USD/TEU, down 11.21%; for the US - West route, it was 2189 USD/FEU, up 13.83%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1149.14 points, down 0.6%; for the European route, it was 1638.77 points, down 2.8%; for the US - West route, it was 774.40 points, unchanged [3]. - **Economic Data**: The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1. The eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7. In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points. The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [3][4]. - **Contract Data**: On September 9, the main contract 2510 closed at 1268.7, down 0.97%, with a trading volume of 22,400 lots and an open interest of 47,200 lots, a decrease of 290 lots from the previous day [5]. Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and consider increasing positions around 1200; add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international situation instability, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Other Information - **Tariff and Trade**: Sino - US tariffs continue to be postponed, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: On September 9, the Israeli military called on residents of Gaza City to evacuate as it planned a large - scale ground offensive. Hamas said the US cease - fire proposal was not a real agreement [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and the market is in the process of bottom - building with large fluctuations recently. It is not recommended to increase positions and stop - losses should be set [1] - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - After the bullish sentiment is exhausted, the market stops rising and starts to fall. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On September 1st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2] - On August 29th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2] - On August 29th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; SCFI European route price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2] - On August 29th, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2] Market Conditions - On September 3rd, the main contract 2510 closed at 1323.0, with a decline of 3.04%, a trading volume of 25,500 lots, and an open interest of 51,900 lots, a decrease of 2211 lots from the previous day [3] PMI Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8); services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51); composite PMI was 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the expected 50.7 [2] - China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8); services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous 55.7); Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (expected 49.7, previous 49.8) [2] Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly test positions [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Other Information - Israel is preparing to attack Gaza City, and the Israeli military is conducting large - scale reserve recruitment [5] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Core Viewpoint - The possibility of iPads running macOS natively is being discussed, especially in light of Apple's recent hardware developments that blur the lines between iPads and Macs [1][3]. Group 1: Hardware Developments - The introduction of the M1 chip in the iPad Pro has brought the iPad and MacBook product lines closer together [3]. - There are rumors about a new entry-level MacBook Air using A-series chips, which could target a new market segment with lower pricing [4]. - The A-series chips, designed for iPhones and iPads, offer advantages in cost, power consumption, and production scale, making them suitable for a lower-priced MacBook Air [4]. Group 2: Market Strategy - Apple aims to penetrate the entry-level market with a more affordable MacBook Air, which could appeal to budget-conscious consumers [4][5]. - The introduction of an A-series MacBook Air would allow Apple to reclaim the low-price market segment that was previously dominated by iPads [5]. - This strategy would create a three-tier product matrix: iPads for touch and tablet experiences, A-series MacBook Air for budget users, and M-series MacBook Air/Pro for high-performance markets [5][6]. Group 3: Ecosystem and User Experience - The differences in user interaction between iPadOS and macOS suggest that a direct merger of the two systems is unlikely, as each is designed for different user experiences [8][10]. - Apple's App Store policies create a barrier that prevents iPads from running macOS, as it would undermine Apple's revenue model [12][14]. - The relationship between iPads and Macs is characterized by a desire for hardware convergence while maintaining distinct software ecosystems to protect profitability [14].