Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in U.S. semiconductor export controls and their implications for U.S.-China tech competition, particularly focusing on the impact of the Trump administration's policies on the semiconductor and AI industries in both countries [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Policy Changes - The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated the repeal of the AI diffusion rules signed during Biden's administration and announced additional measures to strengthen global chip export controls, including a ban on the global use of Huawei's Ascend AI chips [1][2]. - The Trump administration's semiconductor control policies indicate a trend towards decoupling the U.S. and Chinese semiconductor industries, with both sides aiming to reduce dependency on each other [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on China - In the short term, Chinese companies will have to endure the impact of U.S. policies and seek partnerships with non-U.S. entities, as the U.S. has limited the autonomy of companies like NVIDIA in supplying AI chips to China [2][3]. - The recent changes in U.S. policy may create opportunities for intermediaries, as traditional smuggling routes could pivot towards AI chip trafficking [4][6]. Group 3: Semiconductor Manufacturing Landscape - The new origin recognition rules for semiconductor products in China aim to encourage domestic manufacturing by defining the origin based on the foundry location, which could lead to a shift in production back to mainland China or other regions like Taiwan and South Korea [7][9]. - The U.S. "Chip Act" has attracted multinational companies to invest in advanced semiconductor production lines in the U.S., but the additional tariffs on exports back to China may diminish the cost advantages of these investments [9][10]. Group 4: Political Implications of Subsidies - The "Chip Act" subsidies have evolved into a political tool, with funding directed towards older semiconductor companies and military-related firms rather than advancing cutting-edge semiconductor capabilities [10][12]. - The timing of subsidy approvals has been strategically aligned with electoral cycles, indicating that the funding has become intertwined with political agendas rather than purely industrial objectives [12][13]. Group 5: International Cooperation and Export Controls - The Biden administration's "small yard, high wall" strategy has pressured allies like Japan and the Netherlands to implement stricter export controls, which could significantly impact China's semiconductor industry [24][25]. - The potential for a new alliance among U.S. allies to enforce semiconductor export controls could strengthen the U.S. position, but uncertainties remain regarding the future cooperation of these allies under a different U.S. administration [27][29].

当前投资逻辑正发生深刻的变化。 整理丨陶辉东 来源丨 投中网 2025年的春天，中国的一级市场出现了久违的生机勃勃的景象。DeepSeek、宇树机器人热度居高不下，A股、港股、纳斯达克中国金龙指数轮番上涨， 一股复苏的气息在蔓延。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 来自深圳的老牌人民币基金基石资本，正身处这场复苏的中心地带。从GPU公司摩尔线程、壁仞，大模型领域的MiniMax、百川智能，到机器人领域的 埃夫特、智元，再到国产存储龙头合肥长鑫、长江存储，很少有机构能像基石资本一样进取，把整条AI产业链从软件到硬件、从早期到后期布局得这么 透。 面对越来越卷的一级市场，人民币基金一直在求变，基石资本"变"的思路跟其他同行们有相似，也有很大的不同。 在由投中信息、投中网主办的"第19届中国投资年会·年度峰会"前夕，投中网与基石资本董事长张维展开了一场深度对话。 五年前，张维带领基石资本完成了一次决绝的战略性转身，成建制地裁撤消费投资团队，将弹药全部集中到半导体、人工智能和机器人等硬科技领域。 他说，今天在中国做投资必须理解两件事，第一是中美科技竞争的长期性，第二是中国在科技制造业和在人工智能领域发展的 ...

4月2日，上海财经大学校长刘元春在江苏扬州的一场公开活动上表示，以DeepSeek事件为标志，中 国科创崛起正在重塑中国资产的估值，中国科创企业正在技术突破、成本控制和商业化应用方面展现独 特优势。在中美科技竞争加剧、全球资本流动格局变化的背景下，中国科创的全面崛起不仅是技术进步 的体现，更是中国叙事逻辑的一次深刻重塑。 刘元春也强调，中国市场结构与市场秩序的治理是中国叙事和中国估值在中期全面持续的一个重要决定因 素，必须上升到新的高度。他还谈道，美国经济是否加速步入衰退期是美国叙事逻辑变化的关键，假如在 4月披露的美国一季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速为负，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）上升突破3%。美联 储很可能在4月下旬或5月份开启新的降息阶段。一旦美国降息，我国货币政策空间将更加充足。 中国资产重估不是短期事件 今年农历新年前后，以DeepSeek事件触发，国际社会出现对于中国发展叙事逻辑的逆转。刘元春表示， DeepSeek在一周之内获得了全世界的热捧，在资本市场只要与DeepSeek相关的股票都快速上升。在这 一轮中国资产的上涨潮里，与新质生产力相关的、战略性新兴产业相关的中国公司股票实现全面引领。但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's role in providing stability and certainty in a world characterized by uncertainty, highlighting the importance of global South cooperation and China's contributions to global governance [2][5][14]. Group 1: Global South and China's Role - The global South now accounts for over 40% of the world's economic output and contributes 80% to global economic growth, with the BRICS group becoming a key player in this context [2][5]. - China is seen as a responsible major power, actively participating in global governance and promoting initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative to foster international cooperation [5][14]. - The article discusses the increasing unity among global South countries, with over 100 nations supporting major global initiatives, indicating a shift in international dynamics [5][14]. Group 2: China's Economic and Technological Contributions - China's robust market and domestic demand, along with its strong industrial and innovative capabilities, are highlighted as key factors for its economic confidence and future growth [3][6]. - The article notes that China's technological advancements, particularly in areas like 5G and quantum computing, are crucial for global progress and that China is willing to share its innovations with other developing nations [3][11]. - China's commitment to multilateralism and its expanding "circle of friends" are expected to bring positive energy to the world, promoting collaborative solutions to global challenges [6][14]. Group 3: Global Governance and Stability - The article underscores the significance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in maintaining stability in the Eurasian region, with China playing a pivotal role in its development [9][14]. - It mentions that the upcoming year 2025 is significant for both China and the world, marking important anniversaries and events that will shape future international relations [8][9]. - The article concludes that the global South's increasing influence is essential for reshaping international order and ensuring a more equitable global governance system [15].