Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, demand remained weak, and costs in Xinjiang showed reduced support during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9090 - 9480 yuan/ton. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to increase, while the demand shows a short - term decline in wafer production but a medium - term recovery expectation. The battery and component production shows a continuous decline. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53400 - 56010 yuan/ton. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [9][10][11]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts and shutdowns. The main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a difficult - to - change downward trend [14][15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% week - on - week decrease. The demand remains sluggish [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 2027 yuan/ton, and the cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 465 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% week - on - week increase; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling decreases and remains at a low level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support increases. The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9090 - 9480 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% week - on - week increase. The scheduled production in July is expected to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% month - on - month increase [9]. - Demand: The wafer production last week was 11.2 GW, a 0.90% week - on - week increase. The wafer inventory was 178,700 tons, a 11.54% week - on - week increase, and the wafer production is currently at a loss. The scheduled production in July is 52.2 GW, a 11.28% month - on - month decrease. The battery production in June was 56.19 GW, a 6.73% month - on - month decrease. The external sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 5.33 GW, a 46.37% week - on - week decrease, and the battery production is currently at a loss. The scheduled production in July is 54.52 GW, a 2.97% month - on - month decrease. The component production in June was 46.3 GW, a 10.61% month - on - month decrease. The expected component production in July is 45.45 GW, a 1.83% month - on - month decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% month - on - month decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 30.5 GW, a 20.77% month - on - month decrease. The component production is currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,390 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,110 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 30, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 8205 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level in the same period of history, which is neutral [12]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [12]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [12]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling continues to increase, the demand shows a short - term decline in wafer production but a medium - term recovery expectation, the battery and component production shows a continuous decline. The overall demand shows a recovery but may be weak in the future. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53400 - 56010 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon: The report provides detailed data on prices, inventories, production, and cost - profit of different contracts and specifications of industrial silicon, as well as the production, inventory, and cost - profit data of its downstream organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries [18]. - Polysilicon: The report provides detailed data on prices, production, inventory, and cost - profit of polysilicon and its downstream wafers, battery cells, and components [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, demand was persistently low, and the market was affected by factors such as high inventories and weak cost - support during the flood season. It is expected to oscillate between 8735 - 9095 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continued to increase, demand showed some recovery but might be weak later, and cost support remained stable. It is expected to oscillate between 48190 - 50620 [9][11][12]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors like cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week, with continued low demand. Polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy ingot inventories were at high levels [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - permeated 553 was 2,027 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the flood season [6]. - Basis: On July 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeated silicon in East China was 9,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 785 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase; and major port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling decreased and remained at a low level, demand recovery was at a low level, cost support increased slightly, and it is expected to oscillate between 8735 - 9095 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous week, and the estimated production scheduling for July was 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.2GW, a 0.90% increase; battery cell and component production showed different trends in production and inventory changes. Overall, demand showed some recovery but might be weak later [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry was 36,170 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 9,330 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 28, the price of N - type dense materials was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2905 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [13]. - Expectation: It is expected to oscillate between 48190 - 50620 [12]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: Futures contract prices generally declined. For example, the 09 contract price decreased from 9,725 yuan/ton to 8,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.33%. Spot prices of different types of silicon also showed declines [19]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased, sample enterprise inventory increased, and major port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - Basis: The basis of some contracts changed, with the 09 contract basis at 785 yuan/ton on July 28 [6]. Polysilicon - Price: Futures contract prices decreased, and prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different changes. For example, the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers increased by 4.55% [21]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory decreased, and domestic and European component inventories also decreased [21]. - Basis: The basis of the 09 contract was - 2905 yuan/ton on July 28 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation with a supply - demand imbalance. The overall supply is relatively strong, while the demand growth is limited, leading to a continuous high inventory level. The cost structure varies among different production methods, with the salt - lake end having obvious cost advantages [8]. - The market is affected by multiple factors such as production costs, inventory levels, and import - export volumes. The price of lithium carbonate futures is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and the overall market trend is affected by the supply - demand relationship and cost changes [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 68,690 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.29%, resulting in a profit of 910 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 74,022 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.58%, resulting in a loss of 6,048 yuan/ton. The salt - lake end had a quarterly cash production cost of 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On July 24, the basis of the 09 contract was - 6,130 yuan/ton, and the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,550 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 58,039 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 41,271 tons, a 1.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 43,310 tons, a 4.54% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 142,620 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position increased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month was 81,150 physical tons, a 3.92% month - on - month increase. The import volume in June was 17,698 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month was 22,000 physical tons, a 24.31% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The futures closing prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of increase, with the increase ranging from 6.73% to 10.52% [14]. - **Basis**: The basis of various products showed a significant decline, with the decline rate ranging from - 217.39% to - 672.90% [14]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 11,654, an 8.37% increase from the previous value [14]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products showed different degrees of increase, while the prices of some products such as phosphoric acid iron remained unchanged [14]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different degrees of change. The production cost and profit of spodumene and lepidolite also changed, with the production profit of spodumene decreasing and the production cost of lepidolite increasing [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased by 8.34% compared with the previous month. The import volume decreased by 16.31% compared with the previous month, and the net import volume decreased by 24.43% compared with the previous month [16]. - **Hydroxide Lithium Supply**: The monthly production of hydroxide lithium decreased by 4.68% compared with the previous month, and the net export volume increased by 60.95% compared with the previous month [16]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The monthly production of lithium battery cells, the monthly loading volume of power batteries, and the export volume of lithium batteries showed different degrees of change. The price of lithium batteries and the cost of battery cells also changed [50]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors showed different degrees of change. The monthly production of ternary precursors increased, and the inventory decreased [56]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials showed different degrees of change. The weekly operating rate of ternary materials also changed [62]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium Demand**: The price, cost, and production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium showed different degrees of change. The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium increased [66]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different degrees of change. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles also changed [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9360 - 9690 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to increase, while the demand side shows continuous decline in silicon wafer, cell, and component production. Overall demand is in a continuous recession, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49105 - 51055 [11]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 77,000 tons, a 2.67% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 74,000 tons, a 3.89% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 249,000 tons, at a high level; organic silicon inventory is 78,100 tons, at a high level with a production profit of 373 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 71.38%, flat compared to the previous week and higher than the historical average; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 37,200 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2789 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 23, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 225 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 547,000 tons, a 0.72% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,050 tons, a 0.60% decrease; major port inventory is 120,000 tons, a 3.22% decrease [6]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 23,000 tons, a 0.87% increase from the previous week. The estimated production schedule for July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 11.1GW, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and inventory was 160,200 tons, an 11.63% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In June, cell production was 56.19GW, a 6.73% decrease from the previous month, and last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 9.94GW, a 37.71% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss state. In June, component production was 46.3GW, a 10.61% decrease from the previous month. The estimated component production for July is 45.45GW, a 1.83% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,010 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 8990 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 23, the price of N - type dense material was 45,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4080 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 249,000 tons, a 9.78% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes above MA20 [12]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing [12]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts have decreased, with the 09 contract closing at 9525 yuan/ton, a 1.35% decrease from the previous day [18]. - Spot prices of various types of silicon in East China have generally increased, with the price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon increasing by 3.17% to 9750 yuan/ton [18]. - Social inventory has decreased by 0.73% to 547,000 tons, and sample enterprise inventory has decreased by 0.60% to 173,050 tons [18]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of most contracts have increased, with the 09 contract closing at 50,080 yuan/ton, a 1.99% increase from the previous day [21]. - Silicon wafer production has increased by 0.7GW to 12.9GW, and inventory has decreased by 7.5GW to 26.5GW [21]. - Cell external sales factory weekly inventory has decreased by 6.02GW to 9.94GW, a 37.72% decrease [21]. - Component monthly production has decreased by 5.5GW to 46.3GW, and domestic inventory has decreased by 26.54GW to 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease [21]. 3. Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends show the historical changes in basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [23]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends show the historical changes in delivery warehouse, port inventory, and sample enterprise inventory [26]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends show the historical changes in sample enterprise weekly production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise operating rate [30]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends show the historical changes in power prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in major production areas [35]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample area trends show the historical changes in cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [37]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the historical changes in supply, demand, and balance of industrial silicon [39][42]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon - DMC price and production trends show the historical changes in DMC capacity utilization, profit, cost, production, and price [45]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon - downstream price trends show the historical changes in the prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [47]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon - import - export and inventory trends show the historical changes in DMC import, export, and inventory [50]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy - price and supply trends show the historical changes in waste aluminum recycling, social inventory, aluminum scrap import, un - forged aluminum alloy import - export, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost and profit [53]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy - inventory and production trends show the historical changes in the monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rate of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [56]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy - demand (automobile and wheel hub) shows the historical changes in automobile monthly production and aluminum alloy wheel hub export [58]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - fundamental trends show the historical changes in polysilicon industry cost, price, inventory, production, operating rate, and demand [63]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - supply - demand balance sheet shows the historical changes in polysilicon supply, demand, and balance [66]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - silicon wafer trends show the historical changes in silicon wafer price, production, inventory, demand, and net export [69]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - cell trends show the historical changes in cell price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export [72]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic component trends show the historical changes in component price, inventory, production, and export [75]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic accessory trends show the historical changes in photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass production and export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [78]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component component cost - profit trends (210mm) show the historical changes in the silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost, and profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11] - The lithium carbonate 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,540 - 64,820 yuan/ton [8] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the continuously high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and insufficient receiving willingness at the power battery end [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a 3.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in July 2025 will be 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase from June [8] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,110 tons, a 0.48% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,071 tons, a 1.38% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month and the inventory will decrease [8] - Cost: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 62,936 yuan/ton, a 0.69% day - on - day increase, with a loss of 160 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 68,253 yuan/ton, a 0.68% day - on - day increase, with a loss of 7,005 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with high profit margins and strong production motivation [8] - Basis: On July 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 530 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8] - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 58,598 tons, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 40,765 tons, a 0.66% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 41,430 tons, a 6.34% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 140,793 tons, a 1.77% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8] - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish signal [8] - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish signal [8] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Lithium ore: The price of 6% lithium spodumene increased by 1.05% to 673 US dollars/ton; the price of 2% - 2.5% lithium mica concentrate increased by 1.44% to 1,405 yuan/ton [13] - Lithium salt: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.55% to 63,650 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.57% to 62,050 yuan/ton [13] - Other products: The prices of some products such as anhydrous iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [13] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Production: The monthly production of lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake lithium has increased to varying degrees [16] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 0.50% to 516,747 tons, and the import volume from Australia increased by 24.75% to 371,378 tons. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 25.37% to 21,145.78 tons [16] - Supply - demand balance: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium ore market, with different supply - demand gaps in different months [26] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has shown different trends, and the monthly production has increased [29] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased, and the import volume from Chile has decreased significantly [29] - Supply - demand balance: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market, with different supply - demand gaps in different months [34] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The weekly production capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide have shown different trends [37] - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed in different periods [37] - Supply - demand balance: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium hydroxide market, with different supply - demand gaps in different months [40] 3.6 Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - Different raw materials for lithium carbonate production have different cost - profit situations, and most are in a loss state [43][46] - The cost - profit of lithium hydroxide production also shows different trends [49] 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate at smelters, downstream, and other sources have different changes [51] - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide at downstream and smelters has different changes [51] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The prices of different types of lithium batteries have different trends [54] - Production: The monthly production and shipment volume of lithium battery cells have changed [54] - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed in different periods [54] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The prices of different types of ternary precursors have different trends [60] - Production: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors have different trends [60] - Supply - demand balance: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the ternary precursor market, with different supply - demand gaps in different months [63] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The prices of different types of ternary materials have different trends [67] - Production: The weekly production capacity utilization rate and monthly production of ternary materials have different trends [67] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has changed [69] 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price: The prices of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have different trends [71] - Production: The monthly production and production capacity utilization rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have different trends [71][74] - Export: The monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has changed [74] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - Production: The production volume of new energy vehicles has changed, including plug - in hybrid and pure - electric vehicles [79] - Sales: The sales volume and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed [79][80] - Inventory: The inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have changed [83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being a prominent issue. The overall market is affected by factors such as production costs, inventory levels, and downstream demand [8]. - The production cost of lithium carbonate varies by source. Ore - based production (lithium spodumene and lithium mica) is currently at a loss, while the cost of the salt - lake end is relatively low, with sufficient production motivation [8]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is higher than the historical average, which has a negative impact on the market [8]. - The downward trend of the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change due to the mismatch between production capacity and demand [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,123 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, with the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increasing by 3.75% and that of ternary material sample enterprises increasing by 3.59% [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, with daily - on - daily increases of 0.84% and 1.03% respectively, and production at a loss. The cost of the salt - lake end is lower, with a high profit margin [8]. - **Basis**: On July 9, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1,100 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.10% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. Different types of inventory (smelter, downstream, and other) showed different trends [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a positive signal. The net short position of the main contract increased, showing a negative signal [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and upstream and downstream products showed different trends. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.22%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.64% [13]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly production rate decreased by 1.59%, and the monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, an 8.34% increase from the previous month. The production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) also showed different trends [16]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production rate and output of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 5.55%, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased [16]. 3.3 Supply - Related Sections - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore showed an upward trend, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore fluctuated. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased slightly, and the inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore showed different trends over time [22][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production rate and output of lithium carbonate showed different trends. The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the import volume decreased. The supply - demand balance showed different states in different months [28][34]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The capacity utilization rate and production of lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The export volume of lithium hydroxide was relatively large, and the supply - demand balance also changed over time [36][40]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Related Sections - The production cost and profit of lithium compounds (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide) from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycling) showed different trends. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from externally purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica was at a loss [43][46]. - The import profit, purification profit, and carbonization profit of lithium carbonate also showed different trends over time [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - Related Sections - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was higher than the historical average, and the inventory of different sources and types also changed [50][51]. 3.6 Demand - Related Sections - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, and inventory of lithium batteries showed different trends. The monthly output and loading volume of power batteries increased, and the export volume of lithium batteries also changed [54][55]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also changed in different months [60][64]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost - profit of ternary materials also changed over time [66][67]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium**: The price, production, and export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium showed different trends. The cost - profit of phosphoric acid iron lithium also changed [71][74]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed an upward trend [78][79].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年6月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 利多：厂家停减产计划，从智利进口碳酸锂量环比有所下行，锂辉石进口量有所下滑。 利空：矿石/盐湖端供给持续高位，下降幅度有限；动力电池端接货意愿不足。 主要逻辑：产能错配导致供强需弱，下行态势较难改变。 主要风险点：停减产/检修计划冲击，产业出清启动时间点。 4 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为18462吨 环比增长1 84% ， . , | 高于历史同期平均水平 | 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年6月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.1万吨，环比有所增加2.53%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.1万吨，环比减少13.41%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅 库存为26.2万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为 72800吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为82元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率 为68.4%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为2.38万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为785元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为657.26元/吨，再生铝 开工率为53.6%，还比减少0.55%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年6月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为18462吨 环比增长1 84% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， . 。 , | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为86570吨 环比增加0 54% 上周三元材料 ， . , | | | | 样本企业库存为15298吨 | 环比增加2 97% ， . 。 | | | | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为60012元/吨 日环比减少0 04% 生产所得为 ， . , | | 1 、 | 基本面: | 948元/吨 有所亏损 | 中性 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年6月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为18462吨 环比增长1 84% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， . 。 , | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为86570吨 环比增加0 54% 上周三元材料 ， . , | | | | | | 样本企业库存为15298吨 | 环比增加2 97% ， . 。 | | | | | | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为60041元/吨 日环比减少0 30% 生产所得为 ， . , | | | | 1 ...