证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | 12 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 0119.HK | 保利置业集团 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 601872.SH | 招商轮船 | | 600309.SH | 万华化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 603799.SH | 华友钴业 | | 603345.SH | 安井食品 | | 603099.SH | 长白山 | | 300395.SZ | 菲利华 | | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3873.32 | (0.70) | | 深证成指 | 13147.39 | (1.27) | | 沪深 300 | 4552.18 | (0.86) | | 中小 100 | 7947.12 | (1.04) | | 创业板指 | 3163.67 | (1.41) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- ...

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，A股短期有望震荡企稳，为"牛市春躁"行情预热。2026年， 科技+"反内卷"两条主线有望成为行业配置的主要抓手。其中，有色金属行业有望成为科技主线轮动阶 段市场的主要配置方向。从盈利角度，"反内卷"相关板块有望成为近期A股盈利边际增量的主要贡献。 随着近期白银价格的不断创新高，A股贵金属板块有望率先成为本轮资金轮动的重点方向。建议关注有 色金属行业，尤其是贵金属小金属板块相关的标的，以把握本轮配置机会。 展望后市，尽管美联储开启降息周期后，前期部分基于宽松预期入场的资金可能获利了结，引发白银价 格的短期震荡与波动。但从中期视角看，决定白银价格的核心逻辑已从单一的金融属性转向由"绿色能 源转型"与"人工智能革命"所驱动的强劲工业需求。在光伏、新能源车及AI基础设施等领域用银量持续 增长，且全球白银市场连续数年面临结构性供应短缺的背景下，白银的商品属性正为其构筑坚实的长期 上行基础。 风险提示：1)地缘政治风险超预期;2)海外经济超预期衰退;3)政策落地不及预期，宏观经济波动超预 期。 本轮白银表现更强的原因 1)全球能源转型和科技发展，为白银创造了巨大的新需求。2)持续的 ...

图片来源：视觉中国 2025年的资本市场，有色金属板块的强势表现几乎贯穿全年。行至年末，该板块年内涨幅约70%，在全部行业排名第一，甚至力压因AI叙事强劲而大放异 彩的光模块。该板块内，贵金属价格更是屡创新高，国际金价年内涨幅一度接近60%，近期重新站上4200美元，白银价格则单周大涨15%，年内涨幅已近 100%。 然而，正当市场为这份成绩单欢呼时，洪灝、李蓓、付鹏三位知名投资人对黄金前景却发出不一样的声音，引发广泛关注。 对于有色金属板块（包括贵金属、工业金属和稀有金属等）的崛起，市场普遍将美联储降息预期视为重要的"催化剂"，这在近期体现得尤为明显：随着市 场对12月降息的预期明显升温，美元走弱直接推动了以美元计价的有色金属新一轮行情。值得一提的是，11月30日，有海外消息称鲍威尔将在美东时间本 周一晚上7点举行的紧急会议上宣布辞职，如若成真将意味着美联储的政策立场可能在2026年后转向更为鸽派，对有色金属板块尤其是贵金属带来直接刺 激。 但有色金属在金融市场掀起的这股"完美风暴"，关键在于其背后存在着多重坚实逻辑。 除了降息带来的金融属性利好，全球范围内的"再通胀"与温和复 苏预期，为铜、铝等工业金属的 ...

历史的回响：技术革命是财富增长的真正引擎 但斌从1998年君安研究所的岁月谈起，以亲身经历串联起中国资本市场的变迁。他指出，过去数十年间，电子计算机、互联网、移动互联网三大技术浪潮催 生了无数投资机遇。尽管期间经历金融危机、高通胀等干扰，但推动社会前进的根本动力始终是技术进步。 "如果我们回到2004年东方港湾成立时，能预见移动互联网时代，就应该将全部资金换成港币买入腾讯。"但斌以21年六七百倍回报的案例，道出时代机遇的 惊人能量。而今面对2022年开启的人工智能革命，他直言东方港湾做出了与当年类似的战略抉择——重仓以英伟达为代表的AI领军企业。 全球视野：选择比努力更重要 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。东方港湾董事长但斌主旨演讲。但斌以一场充满历史纵深感的演讲， 向在场年轻分析师们传递了一个核心信念：我们正站在一个堪比工业革命的智能时代开端，投资生涯中最大的遗憾，莫过于辜负这样的伟大时代。 针对当前市场对AI泡沫的担忧，但斌引用历 ...

经过一段时间调整之后，近期A股和港股有一定的企稳反弹，市场信心有所回升。那么市场在年底之前 可能会受到布局明年资金的带动，出现一轮像样的反弹行情，甚至可能是跨年度行情。前段时间市场的 回调主要是对前期涨幅过大的一些科技股出现获利回吐的压力，出现了调整，市场的趋势并没有改变。 这轮牛市已经走了一年的时间，经历了两波大幅上涨，结构性行情特点明显。大盘在突破4000点之后反 复震荡调整，出现了一定的分化。那么在获利回吐的压力之下，前期涨幅比较大的科技股出现了回调， 新能源、电力设备这些"中登股"以及白酒医药等"老登股"则是出现了轮动反弹的走势。板块轮动是市场 行情逐步深化的一个特征，也是一个健康的轮动。所以在年底马上到12月份，市场可能会迎来新一波的 反弹机会，特别是有一些资金要布局2026年的行情，可能会趁调整来进行逢低布局。 2026年中国的牛市预计将会延续，上涨节奏可能会放缓，但是各个板块将轮动起来，从而赚钱效应更 强。2026年有可能从当前的结构性牛市转向全面牛市，从而带动更多的板块回升。那么到2027年，中国 股市仍然有进一步回升的机会，也是这轮慢牛长期行情有望延续较长时间，为投资者带来较多更多的赚 钱机 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut is now uncertain due to diverging views among officials regarding the health of the economy, persistent inflation, and weak job markets [1][3] Group 1: Diverging Opinions Among Federal Reserve Officials - Some policymakers have heightened concerns about persistent inflation, linking it to the recent focus on "affordability" during the elections [3] - Another faction emphasizes the risks of a weak job market, suggesting that low hiring and layoffs could worsen the current employment situation [3] - The internal division within the Federal Reserve reflects a complex economic outlook influenced by tariffs, AI advancements, immigration policy changes, and tax reforms [3] Group 2: Risks of Delayed Rate Cuts - If the Federal Reserve reduces the scale of interest rate cuts, high costs for housing and auto loans will persist, exacerbating public dissatisfaction with living costs [3][4] - Polls indicate that high mortgage and auto loan rates are contributing to widespread discontent among the populace [3] Group 3: Anticipated Opposition Votes in Upcoming Meetings - Analysts predict a significant number of dissenting votes in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, regardless of whether a rate cut is decided [4] - If a rate cut occurs, dissenting votes could reach four to five, while maintaining rates could see three dissenting votes, marking a rare occurrence in the Fed's history [4] Group 4: Impact of Government Shutdown on Economic Data - The government shutdown has interrupted the release of economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's data-dependent decision-making approach [6] - The latest employment data is stuck at August levels, and inflation data is only updated to September, creating challenges for the Fed [6] Group 5: Market Expectations and Stock Market Reactions - The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to around 50%, down from nearly 94% a month ago, contributing to recent stock market corrections [7] - The current rate cut probability has slightly rebounded to 48.9% [7] Group 6: Diverging Views on Future Rate Cuts - After the Fed's second rate cut in October, Chairman Powell dampened expectations for further cuts, stating that December's cut is "not a foregone conclusion" [8] - Various regional Fed officials have expressed concerns about inflation, emphasizing the need to maintain rates around 3.9% to help bring inflation back to target [8] - Conversely, some officials argue that the weak job market poses a more significant risk and advocate for a December rate cut [8] Group 7: Key Economic Indicators and Political Pressures - The upcoming labor market data will be crucial in shaping the Fed's consensus on rate cuts [9] - Political pressures, including discussions about potential replacements for Chairman Powell, may influence the Fed's policy direction [9] Group 8: Institutional Perspectives - Citigroup predicts that weak labor market data will lead the Fed to initiate a rate cut in December, which is a key variable affecting the current stock market [10] - The end of the government shutdown is expected to improve market liquidity, creating a favorable environment for U.S. equities [10]

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出更优质的内容。 文I不可史意 编辑I不可史意 前言 人工智能革命正在重塑就业市场：数据录入、初级程序员等岗位被大量替代，导致就业增长放缓；但 AI 伦理师、提示工程师等新岗位需求激增，企业抢 人推高薪资，形成严重技能错配。 大家好，小编我呀，是一个爱扒关于美国事情的热心博主，今天就跟着我一起来看看，美联储的首要顾虑，那就不得不提到始终顽固的通胀。 截至 2025 年 10 月，美国 CPI 同比增速仍停留在 3%，看似较 2022 年 9% 的峰值大幅回落，但距离 2% 的官方目标仍有 1 个百分点的差距。 这 1 个百分点，在央行语境里堪比 "地球到月球的距离"—— 美联储如同向全球承诺 "将 200 斤胖子减到 120 斤" 的教练，如今胖子刚减到 140 斤，若此时 松劲，通胀很可能反弹，此前两年激进加息的代价将全部白费，美联储的信誉也会彻底崩塌。 更棘手的是通胀的内部结构。鲍威尔重点关注的 "剔除住房的核心服务通胀" 仍高达 4.5%，这一指标直接反映工资相关的物价压力。 理发、看病、育儿、维修等服务价格持续高涨，根源在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative impact of the AI revolution, suggesting it may lead to a new world akin to the Industrial Revolution, with profound implications for society, work, and human relationships [9][10][12]. Group 1: AI Revolution and Its Nature - The AI revolution is compared to previous major revolutions, indicating that it may significantly enhance human capabilities, shifting the focus from physical labor to cognitive functions [12]. - The rapid advancement of technology and knowledge in AI is described as exponential, leading to continuous cycles of discovery and innovation [12][13]. Group 2: Impact on Work and Society - AI may lead to the emergence of a "leisure class," where many professional jobs are replaced by AI, resulting in fewer people needed to perform tasks traditionally done by teams [16]. - The potential for a society where most individuals do not need to work raises questions about how people will spend their time and find purpose in a world of abundant leisure [17][19]. - Education will need to shift from preparing individuals for traditional jobs to fostering creativity and independent learning, focusing on personal development rather than workforce readiness [20][21]. Group 3: Economic and Distribution Challenges - The traditional economic model based on work for income is challenged by the rise of AI, leading to discussions about new distribution systems, such as Universal Basic Income (UBI) [23][25]. - The potential for an "abundant society" raises concerns about wealth concentration and inequality, as the benefits of AI may not be evenly distributed [26]. Group 4: Knowledge and Intellectual Property - The concept of intellectual property may need to evolve in the AI era, as creations may become collective rather than individual, complicating ownership and rights [27]. Group 5: Social Relationships and AI - The article suggests that AI will lead to a decentralization of social activities, with a shift back to more individualized and remote interactions, impacting various sectors including healthcare and education [29][30]. - The emergence of AI as a new "species" necessitates a reevaluation of human relationships, including emotional connections and societal roles [33][34]. Group 6: Global Implications - AI has the potential to foster global cooperation and reduce nationalism, as it encourages interconnectedness and shared progress [36][39]. - The article posits that the AI revolution could provide opportunities for restructuring global order, particularly in the context of US-China relations and international governance [40][41].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall third quarter revenue was $295.3 million, down 9.8% sequentially and 12.2% year-over-year, primarily due to the transition between major contracts in Saudi Arabia [17][18] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $64 million, representing a margin of 21.7%, consistent with Q2 2025 levels despite lower revenues [18] - Adjusted EPS for Q3 2025 was $0.16, including adjustments for certain charges and credits [19] - Gross debt totaled $332.9 million, and net debt was $263.3 million, with a net debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.93 [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue decline was partially offset by solid growth in Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq, with steady growth also noted in Oman, Egypt, Algeria, and Libya [17][18] - The company is positioned as the largest frac company in the Middle East, with the Jafurah tender representing the largest single-service contract in sector history [9][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing positive activity inflection beyond Jafurah, with growth in Kuwait and the return of additional rigs in Saudi Arabia [5][27] - The geopolitical relationship between the U.S. and Gulf states is strong, positively impacting energy markets and foreign investment [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a countercyclical investment strategy, allowing it to capitalize on global weaknesses and position itself for growth [11][12] - NESR aims to maintain operational readiness and efficiency while investing during downturns, contrasting with traditional industry practices [12][14] - The company plans to exit 2025 with a revenue run rate of approximately $2 billion, supported by expanding contract bases and sustained execution momentum [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving a $2 billion exit run rate for 2026, with a high level of visibility on contract awards and execution [72][73] - The outlook for NESR remains favorable, supported by consistent execution on major contract wins and strategic investments [25][26] Other Important Information - The company is in the process of refinancing its debt facility, expected to enhance financial flexibility [24] - NESR is committed to maintaining disciplined debt reduction and improving working capital efficiency [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you respond to comments about pricing competitiveness for the Jafurah contract? - Management highlighted their deep understanding of the local ecosystem and cost control measures that allowed them to maintain margins while being competitive [31][32] Question: What is the roadmap for development at Jafurah? - Management indicated readiness to ramp up operations with multiple crews and equipment already in place, targeting significant increases in stages delivered [34][35] Question: What is the expected incremental EBITDA from Jafurah? - Management confirmed that the incremental EBITDA for 2026 is approximately $100 million, based on the projected revenue run rate [37][38] Question: Can you provide updates on NEDA projects and water initiatives? - Management stated that several pilot projects are underway, with results expected to be shared in future calls [66][68] Question: What is the confidence level in achieving the $2 billion exit run rate for 2026? - Management expressed a 99% confidence level in achieving the target, with contracts already awarded and work commenced [72][73]

Core Insights - The AI revolution is compared to the Industrial Revolution, suggesting it may lead to a new world with significant societal changes [2][3] - AI is expected to enhance human capabilities, shifting the focus from physical labor to cognitive functions [3] - The impact of AI is anticipated to be profound, potentially reshaping work, education, and social structures [5][6] Group 1: AI's Impact on Employment and Society - The rise of AI may lead to the emergence of a "leisure class," where many professional jobs could be replaced by AI, resulting in fewer people needing to work [7][8] - Education systems may need to adapt to focus on teaching individuals how to live creatively and meaningfully rather than preparing them solely for traditional jobs [8][9] - The concept of creativity is challenged as AI demonstrates capabilities in artistic fields, raising questions about the future role of human artists [9] Group 2: Economic and Distributional Changes - The traditional economic model based on work for income may be disrupted, leading to a "no-work society" where income distribution needs to be rethought [11][12] - AI could create a wealthier society, but there are concerns about wealth concentration and inequality, reminiscent of historical patterns during the Industrial Revolution [12] - The concept of intellectual property may evolve as AI-generated content blurs the lines of ownership and contribution [13] Group 3: Social Relationships and Structures - AI is expected to decentralize social activities, moving away from centralized institutions towards more individualized and remote interactions [14][15] - The relationship between humans and AI will need to be redefined, impacting emotional and social dynamics, including companionship and personal relationships [16] Group 4: Global Implications - AI has the potential to foster global cooperation and reduce nationalism, contrasting with the divisive effects of the Industrial Revolution [17] - The AI revolution may provide opportunities for restructuring global order, particularly in the context of US-China technological competition [18] Conclusion - The development of responsible AI is crucial for creating a better future, addressing various societal challenges while maximizing the benefits of AI technology [19]