Core Viewpoint - Recent comments from three Federal Reserve officials indicate growing concerns about the latest signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, significantly increasing market expectations for a potential interest rate cut as early as September [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, and any further slowdown in employment would be concerning [3]. - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari echoed these concerns, suggesting that a rate cut may be appropriate in the short term [4]. - Fed Governor Lisa Cook described the significant downward revisions in employment data as indicative of a potential economic turning point, intensifying rate cut speculation [5]. Group 2: Policy Adjustments - The recent dovish signals from Fed officials provide the clearest indication yet of a potential policy shift [2]. - Daly mentioned that adjustments to policy may be necessary in the coming months to prevent further deterioration in the labor market [4]. - The officials are weighing the dual mandate of controlling inflation and achieving full employment, with Daly noting that both objectives are currently "roughly balanced" [6]. Group 3: Inflation Considerations - Despite the increasing clarity of rate cut signals, officials remain cautious about balancing inflation risks [6]. - Daly emphasized that more work is needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target, indicating that the Fed is not yet ready to respond to short-term price increases driven by tariffs [7][8]. - Earlier in the week, Daly suggested that two rate cuts this year might be appropriate, leaving room for more aggressive easing if necessary [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, amid pressure from the Trump administration for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Market Reaction - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged was interpreted as slightly hawkish, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks and gold, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index rose [1]. - The Fed's balance sheet reduction continues at a pace of $50 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities [1]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - Among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 9 supported maintaining rates, while two members voted for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members expressed dissent [2]. - The dissenting members were nominated by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve amid political pressures [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance on Independence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed will not adjust its rate path due to political pressure, asserting that the central bank's goals are to achieve maximum employment and stable inflation [3]. - Powell's statements reflect a strong commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence, which is supported at the congressional level [3]. Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The Fed's statement highlighted increased economic risks and uncertainty, noting a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year and persistent high inflation [4]. - The Fed remains focused on balancing employment and inflation risks, with a cautious approach to future rate cuts depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [4]. Group 5: Future Projections - Analysts predict that the U.S. economy may face downward pressure in the third quarter, potentially leading to a 25 basis point rate cut in September [5]. - However, the impact of tariffs on inflation and subsequent fiscal measures may limit the likelihood of further rate cuts in the fourth quarter [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that the labor market remains close to full employment [1] Group 1 - The labor market conditions indicate a strong employment situation, suggesting that the economy is performing well [1] - The statement reflects confidence in the current economic recovery and stability within the job market [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔在当天举行的记者会上表示，实施适度约束性的货币政策看起来是合适的。他说，美 联储尚未就9月份货币政策作出决定，这取决于下一次议息会议前公布的就业和通胀等数据。 鲍威尔指出，虽然更高关税税率对一些商品价格的影响已经开始逐步显现，但其对经济活动和通胀的整 体影响仍有待观察。 美联储公开市场委员会12名具有投票权的成员中，9人投票支持维持利率不变。美联储负责监管事务的 副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒均投票支持降息25个基点，美联储理事阿德里安娜·库 格勒则缺席投票。据美国媒体报道，这是30多年来首次出现2名美联储理事同时在有关利率决策的投票 中表达不同意见的情况。 美联储公开市场委员会发布公告说，尽管净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示上半年经济活动放 缓，失业率依然维持在低位，就业市场条件依然稳固，通胀仍处于较高水平。公告还说，经济前景不确 定性依然处于高位，委员会致力于实现充分就业并让通胀回落至2%的目标。 美国联邦储备委员会30日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%之间不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变，符合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the best approach to support housing is to stabilize prices and ensure full employment [1] Group 1 - The focus on stabilizing prices is crucial for the housing market [1] - Full employment is highlighted as a key factor in supporting housing stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that broad indicators show the labor market is approaching full employment [1] Group 1 - The labor market is showing signs of nearing full employment, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, expressed uncertainty regarding the current employment market's position relative to full employment levels [1] Group 1 - The RBA is assessing the employment market's status and its implications for economic policy [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicates that the job market remains stable and is close to full employment levels [1] Group 1 - The employment market is showing signs of stability, suggesting a robust economic environment [1] - The current employment levels are approaching what is considered full employment, indicating a healthy labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's dual policy goals of maintaining price stability and achieving full employment is under significant tension, which was not anticipated by the Federal Reserve itself [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in balancing its two main objectives: price stability and full employment [1] - The current economic environment has led to unexpected strains on the Federal Reserve's policy framework [1] - The implications of this tension could affect future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's primary objectives are to achieve price stability and full employment [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizes the importance of maintaining price stability as a key task [1] - Achieving full employment is also highlighted as a critical goal for the Federal Reserve [1]