Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Cautious hold [1] - Copper: High - level correction [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] Core Views - The Fed's "not dovish enough" rate cut is in line with expectations. The dot - plot shows 50bp of rate cuts by the end of the year. The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, while short - term "sell - on - news" trading risks should be guarded against. Silver has strong long - term prospects but is volatile. Copper is expected to have limited downside in the short term and is still favored in the long run. Zinc is a short - position allocation in the long term. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel prices face pressure on rebounds. Industrial silicon has short - term wide - range oscillations, polysilicon has high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate has short - term wide - range oscillations with support at the bottom [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: There was a short - term adjustment in the gold and silver market. The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations, and risks of adjustments due to sentiment fluctuations should be guarded against [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US data decline supports rate cuts. The Fed cut rates by 25bp, and many countries followed suit. In the short term, geopolitical uncertainties and economic prospects drive gold prices to new highs. In the long term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold remains strong in the long term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. Silver has support around 9800. Wait for it to stabilize before making long - position purchases. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, breaking through the 80,000 - yuan support level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and inventories continue to accumulate. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and the strength of the peak season [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations. Copper prices are under pressure in the short term, but the long - term logic remains unchanged. Wait for copper to stop falling and stabilize before re - entering the market. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc declined under pressure and tested the lower support level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic inventories are accumulating, and overseas inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to domestic policies [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, Shanghai zinc oscillates weakly. In the long term, supply increases and demand decreases. Maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, electrolytic aluminum production is increasing, and inventories are accumulating. The demand side is gradually recovering. Alumina supply is abundant, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel has excessive pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The stainless steel market has expectations of a peak consumption season, and inventories are decreasing [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened lower and closed higher with a small gain [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production, and the terminal demand is in the peak season. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and the price has support at the bottom [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position strategy in the range of 73,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [22].

深圳商报·读创客户端记者陈燕青 如何看待美联储降息？其影响如何？ 对此，华西证券首席策略分析师李立峰分析称，"从美国近期的就业、消费等数据来看，经济可能比预 期的更弱，美联储年内大概率仍将选择降息。展望全球权益类资产价格走势，短期内存在利好兑现的因 素；中长期而言，全球货币宽松延续，全球权益类资产仍处于慢牛的趋势中。" 在前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙看来，美联储降息可能会引发全球央行降息潮，中国央行也有较大 的货币政策宽松的空间。杨德龙认为，此次降息符合市场预期，对于资本市场的影响并不太大，当前A 股和港股已经开启一轮慢牛长牛行情，建议投资者保持信心和耐心，通过配置优质股票或基金，争取实 现财富增长。 美联储17日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4%至4.25%之间的水平。这是美联储时隔9 个月重启降息。 在美联储宣布降息后，美股三大指数涨跌不一。截至17日收盘，道琼斯指数上涨0.57%、纳斯达克指 数、标普500指数分别下跌0.32%和0.1%。黄金冲高回落，纽约期金收于每盎司3694.6美元，跌幅为 0.82%。 记者注意到，去年9月，美联储启动了四年多来的首次降息，分别在去年9月、11月、 ...

相比于技术圈的冷静，资本市场的反应更直接。 美联储降息预期下的乐观情绪暂时压过了各类不确定性因素，也包括关税，提振亚太股市整体升至四年高位，日 韩股指、金价均频频创新高。 在美联储利率会议即将召开之际，美国上诉法院拒绝美国总统特朗普解除美联储理事库克职务以及特朗普提名的 美联储理事候选人米兰通过参议院投票提名的消息轮番轰炸着媒体头条，但市场对此反应平平。 荷兰国际分析师斯卡姆（Tony Sycamore）对一财记者表示，市场虽然担心美联储货币决议政治化和特朗普施压美 联储，但此次降息25个基点已板上钉钉。这种预期使市场持续保持活跃。 截至午间，东证指数上涨0.62%，至3180.10点，日经指数上涨0.28%，至44896.50点。汽车制造商、钢铁、有色金 属、贸易公司等出口相关板块领涨，制药和食品等防御性股票下跌，银行股也疲软。丰田汽车公司对东证指数涨 幅贡献最大。 特朗普本月稍早签署了一项执行该协议的行政命令，对包括汽车在内的大多数日本产品征收最高15%的关税。美 国海关和边境保护局关于实施该协议的指导方针表示，较低的税率将对"2025年9月16日东部夏令时凌晨12:01或之 后进入消费或从仓库提取消费的 ...

Group 1 - The market is largely optimistic about a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, despite concerns over political pressure from former President Trump [3][4] - The Nikkei 225 index has reached a historical high, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains, driven by export-related sectors such as automotive and steel [4][6] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index, excluding Japan, has also reached a four-year high, reflecting a general positive sentiment in the region's markets [6] Group 2 - The U.S.-Japan trade agreement includes Japan's commitment to establish a $550 billion investment fund, although there are concerns regarding funding issues [5] - The automotive industry is a crucial component of Japan's exports to the U.S., and its performance is seen as a key driver for the Japanese economy [4][5] - Gold prices have surged, breaking the $3,700 per ounce mark, with a year-to-date increase of 40%, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar [7][8] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast, predicting that spot gold could exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q1 2026 due to anticipated demand from investors [8] - The market sentiment has shifted from whether the Fed will cut rates to the extent of the cuts, with expectations of a cumulative reduction of 127 basis points by July 2026 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★ (Bullish) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Bullish) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Bullish) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Lead: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Tin: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Bullish) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Cautiously Bearish) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to continue their upward trend in the long - term due to global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. In the short - term, they are also strong [1][2][3]. - Copper is expected to maintain a tight supply - demand balance. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will pick up. It is recommended to hold long positions and some can take profits [1][5][6]. - Zinc has insufficient demand and increasing inventory in the short - term. In the long - term, supply will increase while demand decreases, so it is recommended to short on rebounds [1][9][10]. - Aluminum price rebounds are under pressure due to inventory overhang. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term [1][13][14]. - Nickel prices are under pressure as the impact of mine - end disturbances weakens. It is recommended to wait and see after taking profits [1][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see for stabilization [1][21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Due to factors such as interest rate cuts, tariff disputes, and concerns about the Fed's independence, gold has reached a new high, and silver has also broken through historical highs [2][3] Fundamental Logic - Weak economic data in the US and Germany, Fed officials' support for interest rate cuts, and the Fed's economic beige - book report indicating economic stagnation and reduced inflation concerns. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2] Strategy Recommendation - Gold has support around 804 in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the performance around the recent high of 838. Silver has support around 9700. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [3] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has been consolidating at a high level and has firmly stood above the 80,000 - yuan mark [5] Industrial Logic - Tight supply of copper concentrates, with processing fees still in deep inversion. Production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will gradually pick up. Overseas inventory is increasing, but domestic exchange inventory is decreasing, and social inventory is at a low level [5] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and some can take profits at high prices. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions near the previous high. In the long - term, copper is optimistic due to its strategic importance and asset - allocation value [6] Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has been oscillating under pressure [9] Industrial Logic - Abundant supply of zinc concentrates, rising processing fees, and increased smelter production enthusiasm. However, it is the off - season for demand, and domestic inventory is increasing while overseas inventory is decreasing [9] Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc is weak domestically and strong overseas. Pay attention to the support at 22,000 yuan. In the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [10] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [12] Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. Production is increasing slightly, and inventory is rising. The demand side has shown some improvement. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with inventory gradually accumulating [13] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [14] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have fallen under pressure, and stainless steel has also shown a downward trend [16] Industrial Logic - There are expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. The supply of refined nickel in the domestic market is excessive, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. Stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly, but the effect of production cuts is weakening [17] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see after taking profits, paying attention to changes in downstream inventory [18] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 has opened low and gone lower, falling more than 3% [20] Industrial Logic - Rumors of CATL's resumption of production have eased supply concerns. Production remains stable, and inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks. Terminal demand is approaching the peak season [21] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for stabilization in the range of 71,300 - 73,000 yuan [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, different investment stances are recommended: - **Bullish**: Gold, silver, copper, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are recommended for long - term investment or short - term long positions [1]. - **Bearish**: Zinc is recommended for short - term short positions and long - term shorting on rebounds [1]. - **Neutral with upward pressure**: Lead, aluminum, and nickel are expected to face upward pressure on price rebounds [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to have a long - term upward trend. Short - term, they are affected by data, policy, and geopolitical factors. Gold has support at around 770, and silver at 9200. Long - term, they benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: In the short - term, observe support at 78000 - 78500 and consider going long on pullbacks. Long - term, it is favored due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6][7]. - **Zinc**: In the short - term, hold short positions with partial profit - taking. Long - term, short on rebounds as supply increases and demand decreases [1][9][10]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, take profit and wait and see. The price faces upward pressure on rebounds due to inventory and demand factors [1][13][14]. - **Nickel**: After taking profit, wait and see. The price rebounds are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances in the nickel and stainless - steel industries [1][17][18]. - **New Energy Metals**: - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait for stabilization at gaps. The market has strong supply and demand, with inventory declining for two consecutive weeks. In the short - term, focus on the 20 - day moving average support [1][21][22]. 3. Summary by Metal Gold - **Market Review**: U.S. data is mixed, with GDP growth revised up but employment confidence down. There are tariff compromises and concerns about the Fed's independence. Short - term, there is a lack of major risk events, while long - term, gold benefits from global factors [3]. - **Logic**: Short - term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low. Long - term, it will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, there is support at around 770, and pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 794. Long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. Silver - **Market Review**: It follows the gold market in the short - term, with no obvious contradictions in its own market [1]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, global liquidity and re - industrialization demand are strong, while supply growth is limited [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, there is support at 9200. Long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The U.S. GDP is better than expected, and the dollar index has declined. The market is affected by upcoming events, and there is an increase in profit - taking of long positions [7]. - **Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decline. Demand will pick up with the approaching peak season. The long - term outlook is positive due to strategic importance and growing demand [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Observe support at 78000 - 78500, and consider going long on pullbacks. Long - term, be bullish on copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The price is oscillating weakly, testing the support at 22,000 [9]. - **Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is increasing, while demand is weak during the off - season. There is inventory accumulation in the domestic market [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions with partial profit - taking. Long - term, short on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price rebounds are under pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite supply is abundant, and there is inventory accumulation in the domestic market. Although downstream demand is slightly improving, the price still faces pressure [13]. - **Strategy**: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operations [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The price rebounds and then falls, and stainless steel is under pressure [16]. - **Logic**: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the nickel industry, with an oversupply of refined nickel and a tight supply of nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel market is still in the off - season [17]. - **Strategy**: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to changes in downstream inventory [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened significantly lower and then narrowed the decline [20]. - **Logic**: There is uncertainty about a mine's license renewal. Supply and demand are both strong, and inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks [21]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 20 - day moving average support at [77500 - 79800] [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver are recommended for rebound buying. In the long - term, they are expected to rise, benefiting from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with long - term optimism due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand. Zinc is expected to have limited upside space in the short - term, and a rebound short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term. Aluminum, nickel, and industrial silicon are expected to have short - term rebounds. Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish [1]. - In the short - term, gold has support around 770 and attention should be paid to the performance at the recent high of 794; silver has support at 9100 and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will continue to rise. Copper short - term long positions should be held, and new positions can wait for dips to enter. Zinc short - term attention should be paid to filling the upper gap, and long - term rebound short - selling is recommended. Aluminum short - term attention should be paid to taking profits and observing. Nickel and stainless steel short - term should take profits on dips. Lithium carbonate can be bought at low levels after stabilizing near the 20 - day moving average [1][4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Powell's speech exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in liquidity expectations, leading to a notable rise in the gold and silver markets [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Powell's statement exceeded expectations, paving the way for a possible September interest rate cut; Germany's economic concerns deepened with a significant contraction in Q2 GDP; Trump is conducting a major tariff investigation on furniture products, and Canada has adjusted some tariffs. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has support around 770, pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 794; silver has support at 9100, pay attention to the pressure at the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will continue to rise [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly and returned to the 79,000 level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decrease marginally in the future. Currently in the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Global copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, continue to hold long copper positions, and new positions can wait for dips to enter. Long - term, be optimistic about copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range of [78,000, 80,000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and rebounded, and attention should be paid to filling the upper gap [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and smelter production enthusiasm is high. On the demand side, affected by tariffs and the off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc rebounded due to Powell's dovish remarks, but the upside space may be limited. Short - term, previous short positions can take profits and wait and see. Long - term, maintain the view of rebound short - selling. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range of [22,200, 22,800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc focuses on [2750, 2850] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded and recovered, and alumina showed a slight stabilizing trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest rate cut expectations are obvious, with a decline in costs and a mixed inventory situation. The demand side shows a mild recovery. For alumina, the supply is expected to remain loose in the short - term, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Shanghai aluminum should focus on taking short - term profits and observing, and pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,000 - 21,000] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilized, and stainless steel rebounded from a low level [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro sentiment is positive. Nickel ore prices are weak, and smelters are at a loss. Nickel production increased in July, and inventory accumulated again. Stainless steel production cuts weakened, and the off - season pressure remains [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Nickel and stainless steel should take short - term profits on dips, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 123,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and moved low, with a decline of more than 4% [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: Supply production increased slightly, and demand is approaching the peak season. Downstream factories are stocking up, and the total inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, indicating good demand. After stabilizing near the 20 - day moving average, it can be bought at low levels [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average in the range of [78,000 - 81,000] yuan/ton [22].

1. Report Investment Ratings for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold and silver, short - term "stop - falling and try to go long", long - term strategic allocation for gold and long - term long for silver [1] - For copper, short - term "buy on dips", long - term optimistic [1][8] - For zinc, lead, tin, and nickel, short - term "under pressure", long - term for zinc "sell on rallies" [1] - For aluminum, short - term "rebound" [1] - For industrial silicon, short - term "rebound under pressure" [1] - For polysilicon, "high - level consolidation", buy on dips [1] - For lithium carbonate, "high - level consolidation", hold long positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and there is a lack of new drivers in the short - term, leading to market consolidation [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: Focus on Powell's speech; US data is mixed; in the short - term, it's hard for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 766 in the short - term, and long positions can be considered after stabilization; silver has support at 9100 in the short - term [5] 3.2 Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range [6][7] - **Industrial Logic**: There are recent disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Currently in the off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Overall, copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, it is recommended to buy copper on dips. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper [78000, 80000] yuan/ton and LME copper [9650, 9950] dollars/ton [6][8] 3.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates weakly, testing the lower support level [9][10][11] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is rising, and smelters' enthusiasm for production is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the off - season, zinc fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions. In the long - term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc [22000, 22600] and LME zinc [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [10][12] 3.4 Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices stabilize and rebound, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [13][14] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory in the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [13][16] 3.5 Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices run weakly, and stainless steel is under pressure [17][18] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, the production of refined nickel has increased, and the inventory has accumulated again. The effect of stainless steel production cuts on inventory reduction is weakening, and there is still an oversupply pressure in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of downstream inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [17][20] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower, rises and then falls, and closes slightly down [21][22] - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are negative news, the supply is expected to contract unexpectedly. With the arrival of the peak demand season, downstream factories start to stock up. The inventory structure is fragile, and the price is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of [82000 - 85000] [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market turns to expect a September rate cut after digesting short - term bearish sentiment, geopolitical easing, and Powell's potentially hawkish views. Gold and silver are recommended for short - term bottom - fishing and long - term strategic allocation. Copper is recommended for short - term dip - buying and long - term bullish outlook. Zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be shorted on rallies in the long - term. Lead is under short - term pressure. Tin and aluminum are under short - term pressure for rebounds. Nickel is under short - term pressure. Industrial silicon rebounds, while polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in high - level oscillations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Bearish sentiment is partially digested, showing short - term signs of stopping the decline. Attention is paid to Powell's speech on Friday [4]. - **Basic Logic**: There is a divergence of opinions among Fed officials on a September rate cut. The UK's inflation rate in July reached a new high in 18 months, weakening the market's expectation of a rate cut. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may be supported around 766, and long - term orders can be considered after stabilization. Silver is more volatile in the short - term, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of support around 9000. Attention is also paid to the meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range with converging volatility [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are disturbances in copper mines recently, the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. The production of refined copper may decrease marginally in August - September due to increased smelting maintenance. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. The overall copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try buying copper on dips. In the long - term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the China - US game. The focus ranges are [78000, 80000] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton for London copper [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds, getting support from the lower moving average [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrate is abundant in 2025. The production of refined zinc is expected to increase in August. On the demand side, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The domestic zinc social and exchange inventories are accumulating, and the downstream is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions. In the long - term, short zinc on rallies. The focus ranges are [22000, 22600] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, while alumina shows a slight stabilizing trend [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are still uncertainties in overseas macro - trade policies. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term, and attention is paid to overseas bauxite changes [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the inventory changes of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are weak, and stainless steel is under pressure and declining [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment is still uncertain. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and the production of refined nickel has increased with accumulated inventory. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and it still faces over - supply pressure during the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 gaps down and hits the daily limit down [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: Negative news impacts the market, but the corresponding production cannot make up for the gap. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, but with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, the inventory structure may amplify price elasticity. The main contract is expected to rise further after the strengthening of the de - stocking expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of [80000 - 85000] [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, recommended to buy on dips and hold for the long - term [1] - Silver: Bullish, recommended to buy on rebounds and hold for the long - term [1] - Copper: Bullish, recommended to buy on dips and hold for the long - term [1] - Zinc: Bearish, recommended to hold short positions in the short - term and sell on rallies in the long - term [1] - Lead: Bearish, price under short - term pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, price under short - term pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price under short - term pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the geopolitical situation is seeking a truce, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. The market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, with expectations that Fed Chairman Powell may take a hawkish stance, which will suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and cause the US dollar to rebound. This has an impact on the prices of precious metals and base metals. In the long - term, factors such as global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern will support the prices of precious metals, especially gold. For base metals, supply - demand relationships, strategic resource attributes, and industry development trends will affect their price trends [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Global parties are seeking a cease - fire in geopolitical conflicts, and the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is highly anticipated. Gold and silver are trading in a narrow range [2] - **Basic Logic**: The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Different institutions have different expectations for his stance. There are also signs of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Hamas situation. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, but in the long - term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver's short - term trading range is between 9150 - 9400, and it is recommended to go long in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite meeting [4] Copper - **Market Review**: The fluctuation of Shanghai copper has converged, and it closed with a doji star after narrow - range trading [6] - **Industry Logic**: Recently, there have been disruptions in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. The output of electrolytic copper in July increased, but it may decline marginally in August - September due to smelting maintenance. It is currently the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. The overall copper inventory overseas has increased slightly, and the domestic social inventory has also risen slightly. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the global central bank annual meeting approaches, the US dollar index has rebounded, and copper prices are under pressure. It is recommended to buy copper on dips. Enterprises can wait for high - level opportunities to sell and hedge to lock in reasonable profits. In the long - term, copper is a strategic resource in the Sino - US game, and there is a long - term bullish outlook. The attention range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 80000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has been oscillating weakly, testing the support of the lower level [9] - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The output of refined zinc in China in July and August increased. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has risen, and smelter enthusiasm has increased. On the demand side, due to factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic consumption off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The spot market trading is dull, and domestic zinc inventories have increased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, due to the off - season of demand and inventory accumulation, zinc is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and take partial profits on dips. In the long - term, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, wait for opportunities to sell on rallies. The attention range for Shanghai zinc is [22000, 22600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have declined under pressure, and alumina has also shown a downward trend [12] - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are still uncertainties in overseas macro - trade policies. The cost has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The demand side has seen a slight increase in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect the arrival volume in August, and domestic alumina plants have increased their loads. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has accumulated, and the short - term supply - demand is expected to be loose [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, paying attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory during the off - season. The operating range of the main contract is [20000 - 20900] [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have been running weakly, and stainless steel has been under pressure [16] - **Industry Logic**: Overseas macro - environment is still uncertain. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and NPI smelters are facing cost inversion. The output of refined nickel in China has increased, and the inventory has accumulated during the off - season. For stainless steel, the effect of production cuts is weakening, and there is still over - supply pressure during the off - season [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the change of downstream inventory. The operating range of the main nickel contract is [120000 - 123000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened higher and moved higher, with increased positions throughout the day, rising more than 4% [20] - **Industry Logic**: Although the overall inventory and output have decreased slightly, the absolute quantity is still at a high level in recent years. After CATL confirmed production suspension, the market expects synchronous production suspension of other mines in Jiangxi. With the arrival of the peak demand season, downstream material factories have started the stocking cycle. The inventory structure will amplify price elasticity. The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply speculation expectation still exists, and long positions should be held in the range of [88500 - 91000] [22]