1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold [1] - Silver: Short - term watch, long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Bearish, short - term short positions and gradually take profits, long - term short on rebounds [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views - The short - term safe - haven demand for gold has declined but still exists. The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, with the opening of the interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1]. - Silver has high short - term volatility due to potential US taxation and low London inventory. Long - term, global policy will stimulate demand and there will be a continuous supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is in high - level consolidation in the short term, with supply expected to shrink in the fourth quarter. In the long term, copper is still bullish due to tight copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand [1]. - Zinc is under pressure and fluctuating weakly in the short term, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in the long term [1]. - Lead prices are under pressure to rebound in the short term due to planned restarts of recycling plants and uncertain downstream consumption [1]. - Tin prices are under short - term pressure due to reduced overseas disturbances and uncertain downstream demand [1]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound in the short term, with insufficient cost support from alumina but some support from terminal consumption [1]. - Nickel prices are weak, with sufficient domestic supply and uncertain downstream demand [1]. - Industrial silicon is cautiously bearish due to increased industry开工率 and potential negative impacts on demand [1]. - Polysilicon is bullish as there are expectations of production capacity regulation and potential production cuts [1]. - Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish, with supply - demand balance in the short term, continuous inventory reduction, and strong terminal demand [1] 3. Summaries by Catalog Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: G2 tension eases, gold and silver prices adjust. Gold prices are strong due to US government shutdown, ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue, and repeated Middle - East problems [2]. - **基本逻辑**: Sino - US relations ease; Ray Dalio emphasizes a bullish stance on gold; the Middle - East issue is repeated. Long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **策略推荐**: Gold's long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Domestic gold has strong support at 950. Silver has high speculative sentiment, with short - term adjustments. Short - term investors should watch, while long - term investors can hold [4]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper is consolidating in a high - level range [6]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to shrink in the fourth quarter. High copper prices suppress demand, and domestic social inventory accumulates slightly [6]. - **策略推荐**: Copper is in high - level consolidation, but the long - term trend is unchanged. Hold previous long positions with trailing stops, and new long positions should enter on dips. Long - term, be bullish on copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range [83000, 88000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [10000, 11000] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Zinc prices are under pressure and fluctuating weakly [10]. - **产业逻辑**: The global refined zinc supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025 and 2026. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the "Silver October" peak season is lackluster [10]. - **策略推荐**: Short - term short positions can gradually take profits. Wait for rebounds to re - enter short positions. In the long term, zinc is a short - side allocation. Shanghai zinc focuses on [21600, 22000] yuan/ton, and LME zinc focuses on [2900, 3000] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound, and alumina prices are stabilizing at a low level [13]. - **产业逻辑**: There are still expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high operating capacity, and inventory is decreasing. The alumina market is in surplus in the short term [14]. - **策略推荐**: Short - term, buy Shanghai aluminum on dips. Pay attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20500 - 21500] [15]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices rebound and then decline, and stainless steel prices rebound slightly [17]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas disturbances in nickel ore supply are weakening, and domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating. The downstream stainless steel consumption peak season is uncertain [18]. - **策略推荐**: Temporarily watch nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 122000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2511 opens high and goes high, but the gains narrow at the end [21]. - **产业逻辑**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with inventory declining for 9 consecutive weeks. Demand is strong, and supply has accident rumors. Terminal demand is strong, supporting prices [22]. - **策略推荐**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range [75300 - 77800] [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long-term hold, ★★ [1] - Silver: Bullish in the long run, ★★ [1] - Copper: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Zinc: Bearish in the medium to long term, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound, ★★ [1] - Nickel: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish in the short term, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] Core Views - Gold and silver are affected by factors such as the rise of the US dollar index and US bond yields, but the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4] - Copper prices hit a new high this year due to the mine accident in Indonesia and the tight supply of copper concentrates, and the long-term outlook is positive [5][6][7] - Zinc shows a weak rebound in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases in the medium to long term [9][10] - Aluminum prices are stabilizing and rebounding, and short-term buying on dips is recommended [11][13][14] - Nickel prices are rebounding in the short term, and short-term long positions on dips are recommended [15][17][18] - Lithium carbonate has a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but the upward driving force is insufficient [19][21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The US dollar and US bond yields have risen significantly, leading to a correction in gold prices as some funds leave the market due to profit-taking [2] - **Basic Logic**: US economic data has unexpectedly improved, there are differences among Fed officials, and the US and the EU have reached a tariff agreement. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short-term correction of gold does not change the long-term trend. There may be support around 840 for gold and 10000 for silver in the short term. Long-term long positions can continue to be held [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper soared by more than 3%, hitting a new high this year [6] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the mine accident in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine is expected to lead to a significant reduction in global copper mine supply. The processing fee of copper concentrates is still deeply inverted, and the domestic electrolytic copper production may decline in September [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, gradually take profits on rallies, and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. For the long term, copper is still favored [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc showed a weak rebound, while London zinc oscillated strongly [9] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is expected to be loose in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance has increased in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. The inventory of Shanghai zinc has increased significantly, while the inventory of London zinc has continued to decline. The demand has been affected by the typhoon [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on short positions in Shanghai zinc and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the medium to long term, it is recommended to sell on rallies [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12] - **Industrial Logic**: The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum has continued to increase slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased slightly, while the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased slightly. The demand has shown a slight improvement. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded, while stainless steel prices faced pressure on the rebound [16] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of refined nickel is under pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the improvement of the peak season needs to be observed [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take short-term long positions on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with a decline at the end of the session [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the demand has received positive support. The total inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks, and the inventory of smelters is lower than that of last year [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around the 60-day moving average [72700 - 74100] [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold, rated ★★ [1] - Silver: Expected to rise strongly, rated ★★ [1] - Copper: In September, take profit on long positions, rated ★ [1] - Zinc: Under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation in September, rated ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are favored in the long - term. Gold is supported by factors such as geopolitical changes, economic uncertainty, and expected global monetary easing. Silver has strong demand and a significant supply - demand gap. Both are expected to rise in the long run. However, silver is more volatile [1][2][3]. - For copper, although there are short - term factors such as the disappointment of interest - rate cut expectations and holiday risk - aversion sentiment, it is still promising in the long term due to its strategic importance and supply - demand situation [1][5][6]. - Zinc is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the long term, so it is a short - position configuration in the sector, but short - term risk - aversion sentiment may lead to the need to take profit on short positions [1][7][9]. - Other metals such as lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and polysilicon are currently facing different supply - demand situations, and their prices are generally under pressure to rebound [1]. - Lithium carbonate has a situation of both supply and demand booming, and it is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices [1][18][21]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver Market Review - Large inflows of funds and factors such as the risk of a US government shutdown have supported gold to reach new historical highs both domestically and internationally [2]. Basic Logic - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. There is continuous inflow of funds into gold, with the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF reaching a new high since August 2022. Under geopolitical changes and economic uncertainty, gold is strong in the short term and may have a long - term bull market [2]. Strategy Recommendation - Gold can be bought both in the short and long term. For silver, although there is support around 9800, due to its high volatility, careful consideration of position and rhythm is needed when buying in the short term. In general, the long - term bullish logic for both gold and silver remains unchanged [3]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has stopped falling and stabilized, while London copper has returned to the $10,000 mark, showing a pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets [5]. Industrial Logic - Copper concentrate supply is tight. The import volume of copper concentrates and unforged copper in August has different trends. The processing fee of copper concentrates is still deeply inverted, and the domestic electrolytic copper production in September may decline [5]. Strategy Recommendation - In September, the domestic LPR remained unchanged, and the market's interest - rate cut expectations were disappointed. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the long term, copper is still promising. Pay attention to specific price ranges for Shanghai copper and London copper [6]. Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded [8]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is expected to be loose, but the domestic production of zinc concentrates has decreased. The inventory performance is divided, with the LME zinc inventory decreasing and the SHFE zinc inventory increasing. The consumption in the peak season in September is expected to be good, but downstream procurement is based on rigid demand [8]. Strategy Recommendation - With the approaching of the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually take profit on short positions of Shanghai zinc and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the long term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds [9]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [11]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest - rate cuts are in line with expectations. The domestic production in August increased slightly, and the inventory situation is different for aluminum ingots and aluminum rods. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, but the rainy season may affect the arrival volume in September, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [12]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, and pay attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [13]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have rebounded from low levels, and stainless steel has also shown a rebound trend [15]. Industrial Logic - Overseas interest - rate cuts are in line with expectations. The supply - demand situation within the domestic nickel industry chain is differentiated, with a large supply surplus of refined nickel and a relatively tight situation in the nickel sulfate segment. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the arrival of overseas goods and the increase in domestic production in September mean that the performance of the peak - season consumption needs to be observed [16]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. Pay attention to the specific price range for nickel [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 first rose and then fell, closing in the red at the end of the session [19]. Industrial Logic - The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the weekly production and operating rate have increased slightly. The demand has received policy support, and the total inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks. The issue of mining licenses in Jiangxi may attract market attention at the end of the month [20]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices within the range of [72700 - 74700] [21].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 4% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months [1] - Following the Fed's announcement, several global central banks also lowered their rates, including the Bank of Canada and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which both cut rates by 25 basis points [2] - The Fed's dot plot indicates an increase in the forecast for rate cuts this year from 2 to 3, suggesting two more cuts are expected in addition to the recent one [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent rate cut reflects weaker-than-expected economic data in the U.S., and there is a likelihood of continued rate cuts throughout the year [3] - The impact of the Fed's rate cut on global equity markets is expected to be limited in the short term, but a prolonged period of monetary easing may support a slow bull market for global equities [3] - Historical trends indicate that during periods of Fed monetary easing, global asset classes, particularly equities like A-shares, tend to perform well, while bond assets also follow the policy rate movements [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Cautious hold [1] - Copper: High - level correction [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] Core Views - The Fed's "not dovish enough" rate cut is in line with expectations. The dot - plot shows 50bp of rate cuts by the end of the year. The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, while short - term "sell - on - news" trading risks should be guarded against. Silver has strong long - term prospects but is volatile. Copper is expected to have limited downside in the short term and is still favored in the long run. Zinc is a short - position allocation in the long term. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel prices face pressure on rebounds. Industrial silicon has short - term wide - range oscillations, polysilicon has high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate has short - term wide - range oscillations with support at the bottom [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: There was a short - term adjustment in the gold and silver market. The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations, and risks of adjustments due to sentiment fluctuations should be guarded against [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US data decline supports rate cuts. The Fed cut rates by 25bp, and many countries followed suit. In the short term, geopolitical uncertainties and economic prospects drive gold prices to new highs. In the long term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold remains strong in the long term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. Silver has support around 9800. Wait for it to stabilize before making long - position purchases. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, breaking through the 80,000 - yuan support level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and inventories continue to accumulate. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and the strength of the peak season [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations. Copper prices are under pressure in the short term, but the long - term logic remains unchanged. Wait for copper to stop falling and stabilize before re - entering the market. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc declined under pressure and tested the lower support level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic inventories are accumulating, and overseas inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to domestic policies [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, Shanghai zinc oscillates weakly. In the long term, supply increases and demand decreases. Maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, electrolytic aluminum production is increasing, and inventories are accumulating. The demand side is gradually recovering. Alumina supply is abundant, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel has excessive pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The stainless steel market has expectations of a peak consumption season, and inventories are decreasing [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened lower and closed higher with a small gain [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production, and the terminal demand is in the peak season. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and the price has support at the bottom [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position strategy in the range of 73,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [22].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months [1] - Following the announcement, the Dow Jones index rose by 0.57%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.32% and 0.1% respectively [1] - The Fed's dot plot indicates an increase in the forecast for rate cuts this year from 2 to 3, with expectations for two more cuts after the recent one [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the Fed's rate cut may trigger a global wave of rate cuts, with significant room for monetary policy easing in China [3] - The market's risk appetite may slightly improve due to the Fed's neutral stance, and ongoing monitoring of the U.S. economic fundamentals is necessary [3] - Historical data indicates that during preventive rate cut periods, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in growth sectors tend to perform well, with technology stocks expected to benefit from the current weak dollar cycle [4] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed will continue to cut rates until January 2026, with the federal funds rate eventually dropping to a target range of 3.00% to 3.25% [4] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from global liquidity shifts and domestic profit turning points during the Fed's rate cut cycle [4]

Group 1 - The optimistic sentiment in the capital market is driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, overshadowing various uncertainties including tariffs [2][8] - The Nikkei 225 index has reached a historical high, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains, with a peak of over 45,000 points [4][5] - The overall Asia-Pacific stock indices have risen to a four-year high, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index recording a 0.5% increase [8][9] Group 2 - The automotive sector, particularly Toyota, has significantly contributed to the rise in the Tokyo Stock Exchange index, despite the implementation of tariffs on Japanese products by the U.S. [5][6] - The U.S.-Japan trade agreement includes Japan's commitment to establish a $550 billion investment fund, which is crucial for economic relations but faces funding issues [6] - The gold price has surged past $3,700 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 40%, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a weakening dollar [9][10]

Group 1 - The market is largely optimistic about a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, despite concerns over political pressure from former President Trump [3][4] - The Nikkei 225 index has reached a historical high, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains, driven by export-related sectors such as automotive and steel [4][6] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index, excluding Japan, has also reached a four-year high, reflecting a general positive sentiment in the region's markets [6] Group 2 - The U.S.-Japan trade agreement includes Japan's commitment to establish a $550 billion investment fund, although there are concerns regarding funding issues [5] - The automotive industry is a crucial component of Japan's exports to the U.S., and its performance is seen as a key driver for the Japanese economy [4][5] - Gold prices have surged, breaking the $3,700 per ounce mark, with a year-to-date increase of 40%, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar [7][8] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast, predicting that spot gold could exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q1 2026 due to anticipated demand from investors [8] - The market sentiment has shifted from whether the Fed will cut rates to the extent of the cuts, with expectations of a cumulative reduction of 127 basis points by July 2026 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★ (Bullish) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Bullish) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Bullish) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Lead: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Tin: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Bullish) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Cautiously Bearish) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to continue their upward trend in the long - term due to global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. In the short - term, they are also strong [1][2][3]. - Copper is expected to maintain a tight supply - demand balance. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will pick up. It is recommended to hold long positions and some can take profits [1][5][6]. - Zinc has insufficient demand and increasing inventory in the short - term. In the long - term, supply will increase while demand decreases, so it is recommended to short on rebounds [1][9][10]. - Aluminum price rebounds are under pressure due to inventory overhang. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term [1][13][14]. - Nickel prices are under pressure as the impact of mine - end disturbances weakens. It is recommended to wait and see after taking profits [1][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see for stabilization [1][21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Due to factors such as interest rate cuts, tariff disputes, and concerns about the Fed's independence, gold has reached a new high, and silver has also broken through historical highs [2][3] Fundamental Logic - Weak economic data in the US and Germany, Fed officials' support for interest rate cuts, and the Fed's economic beige - book report indicating economic stagnation and reduced inflation concerns. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2] Strategy Recommendation - Gold has support around 804 in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the performance around the recent high of 838. Silver has support around 9700. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [3] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has been consolidating at a high level and has firmly stood above the 80,000 - yuan mark [5] Industrial Logic - Tight supply of copper concentrates, with processing fees still in deep inversion. Production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will gradually pick up. Overseas inventory is increasing, but domestic exchange inventory is decreasing, and social inventory is at a low level [5] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and some can take profits at high prices. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions near the previous high. In the long - term, copper is optimistic due to its strategic importance and asset - allocation value [6] Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has been oscillating under pressure [9] Industrial Logic - Abundant supply of zinc concentrates, rising processing fees, and increased smelter production enthusiasm. However, it is the off - season for demand, and domestic inventory is increasing while overseas inventory is decreasing [9] Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc is weak domestically and strong overseas. Pay attention to the support at 22,000 yuan. In the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [10] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [12] Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. Production is increasing slightly, and inventory is rising. The demand side has shown some improvement. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with inventory gradually accumulating [13] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [14] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have fallen under pressure, and stainless steel has also shown a downward trend [16] Industrial Logic - There are expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. The supply of refined nickel in the domestic market is excessive, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. Stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly, but the effect of production cuts is weakening [17] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see after taking profits, paying attention to changes in downstream inventory [18] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 has opened low and gone lower, falling more than 3% [20] Industrial Logic - Rumors of CATL's resumption of production have eased supply concerns. Production remains stable, and inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks. Terminal demand is approaching the peak season [21] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for stabilization in the range of 71,300 - 73,000 yuan [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, different investment stances are recommended: - **Bullish**: Gold, silver, copper, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are recommended for long - term investment or short - term long positions [1]. - **Bearish**: Zinc is recommended for short - term short positions and long - term shorting on rebounds [1]. - **Neutral with upward pressure**: Lead, aluminum, and nickel are expected to face upward pressure on price rebounds [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to have a long - term upward trend. Short - term, they are affected by data, policy, and geopolitical factors. Gold has support at around 770, and silver at 9200. Long - term, they benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: In the short - term, observe support at 78000 - 78500 and consider going long on pullbacks. Long - term, it is favored due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6][7]. - **Zinc**: In the short - term, hold short positions with partial profit - taking. Long - term, short on rebounds as supply increases and demand decreases [1][9][10]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, take profit and wait and see. The price faces upward pressure on rebounds due to inventory and demand factors [1][13][14]. - **Nickel**: After taking profit, wait and see. The price rebounds are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances in the nickel and stainless - steel industries [1][17][18]. - **New Energy Metals**: - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait for stabilization at gaps. The market has strong supply and demand, with inventory declining for two consecutive weeks. In the short - term, focus on the 20 - day moving average support [1][21][22]. 3. Summary by Metal Gold - **Market Review**: U.S. data is mixed, with GDP growth revised up but employment confidence down. There are tariff compromises and concerns about the Fed's independence. Short - term, there is a lack of major risk events, while long - term, gold benefits from global factors [3]. - **Logic**: Short - term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low. Long - term, it will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, there is support at around 770, and pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 794. Long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. Silver - **Market Review**: It follows the gold market in the short - term, with no obvious contradictions in its own market [1]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, global liquidity and re - industrialization demand are strong, while supply growth is limited [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, there is support at 9200. Long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The U.S. GDP is better than expected, and the dollar index has declined. The market is affected by upcoming events, and there is an increase in profit - taking of long positions [7]. - **Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decline. Demand will pick up with the approaching peak season. The long - term outlook is positive due to strategic importance and growing demand [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Observe support at 78000 - 78500, and consider going long on pullbacks. Long - term, be bullish on copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The price is oscillating weakly, testing the support at 22,000 [9]. - **Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is increasing, while demand is weak during the off - season. There is inventory accumulation in the domestic market [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions with partial profit - taking. Long - term, short on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price rebounds are under pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite supply is abundant, and there is inventory accumulation in the domestic market. Although downstream demand is slightly improving, the price still faces pressure [13]. - **Strategy**: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operations [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The price rebounds and then falls, and stainless steel is under pressure [16]. - **Logic**: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the nickel industry, with an oversupply of refined nickel and a tight supply of nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel market is still in the off - season [17]. - **Strategy**: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to changes in downstream inventory [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened significantly lower and then narrowed the decline [20]. - **Logic**: There is uncertainty about a mine's license renewal. Supply and demand are both strong, and inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks [21]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 20 - day moving average support at [77500 - 79800] [22].