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印度重回金砖后,反手对美“砍出一刀”,特朗普低估了莫迪的决心
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 07:52
Group 1 - India has responded decisively to the U.S. tariffs on its auto parts and steel by imposing retaliatory tariffs worth $725 million on specific U.S. goods, citing violations of WTO rules [3] - The Indian government recognizes that its exports to the U.S. account for only about 18% of its total exports, providing a buffer against U.S. pressure [5] - India's domestic market strength is a crucial factor in its strategy, as it seeks to assert its independence and not be seen as an economic subordinate to the U.S. [5] Group 2 - Modi's government is strategically repositioning India on the global stage by actively participating in the BRICS summit, aiming to take on the role of a representative for the Global South [7] - At the BRICS summit, India supported reforms to the International Monetary Fund and challenged the dominance of the U.S. dollar, indicating a significant shift in its foreign policy [9] - The actions taken by India reflect a desire for a multipolar world and a rejection of being a pawn in the geopolitical game dominated by major powers [11]
冠通期货打开石化投资策略
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 12:40
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: The weak retaliatory action by Iran and the full ceasefire between Iran and Israel have significantly reduced the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, alleviating concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East cannot be completely ruled out. Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, and U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped to a low level. But the latest EIA report shows an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It is recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [7][14]. - Bitumen: The bitumen开工率 has rebounded slightly, but the downstream demand is still affected by factors such as funds and weather. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which puts pressure on the crude oil market sentiment. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread of bitumen at low prices [8][81]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced. The PVC开工率 has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is still large, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near future, and it is mainly recommended to go short at high prices [9][100]. - L&PP: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined to a moderately low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is still large. The U.S. government's cancellation of ethane - related restrictions is beneficial to the recovery of Sino - U.S. trade. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [10][126]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC's crude oil production increased in April and May 2025, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia. U.S. crude oil production decreased slightly in the week ending June 27, 2025, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased [20]. - Demand: According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased, but was lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased, while diesel weekly demand increased [36]. - Inventory: As of the week ending June 27, 2025, U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories increased unexpectedly, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreased [45]. - Geopolitical Risks: The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has reduced geopolitical risks, but risks still exist, such as Iran's uranium - enrichment activities and the situation in the Israel - Hamas negotiations [49][52]. Bitumen - Supply: The bitumen开工率 rebounded slightly last week, and the expected production in July is expected to increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year [67][81]. - Demand: The downstream demand for bitumen is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The road - bitumen开工率 increased slightly, but is still at a relatively low level [74]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, the bitumen refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased slightly, but is still at the lowest level in recent years [78]. PVC - Supply: The PVC开工率 decreased slightly, and new production capacity is about to be put into operation. The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced [91][100]. - Demand: The downstream demand for PVC has not improved substantially, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. The export of PVC to India is restricted by policies and the rainy season [9][100]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 3, 2025, PVC social inventory increased slightly and is still at a relatively high level [97]. L&PP - Supply: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined. New production capacity has been put into operation, and recent maintenance devices have increased, alleviating some pressure [112][126]. - Demand: The downstream demand for polyolefins is weak. The PE and PP downstream开工率 are at relatively low levels, and the recovery is slow [118][126]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory is at a moderately low level, and the de - stocking speed is average [123][126].
不忍了?29国硬刚美国,特朗普紧急发声,日本前首相呼吁中日韩联手
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 11:46
Group 1 - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration, with unilateral tariffs set to take effect on August 1, leading to widespread international concern [1][3] - The U.S. government previously implemented a temporary reduction of tariffs to 10% for 90 days to facilitate negotiations, but talks have stalled as countries refuse to compromise on core interests [1][3] - Countries such as South Korea, the EU, and Japan have publicly opposed the U.S. tariffs, indicating a unified front against what they perceive as unreasonable trade policies [1][3] Group 2 - The potential impact of the tariffs includes an additional $130 billion in duties for U.S. companies and over €21 billion in losses for European car manufacturers, highlighting the severe economic consequences of the trade war [3] - The article notes that 29 countries are collectively pushing back against U.S. tariffs, with the EU activating emergency countermeasures and companies like Samsung shifting orders to Chinese firms [3][5] - Former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama emphasizes the need for East Asian countries to enhance strategic autonomy and cooperation, particularly among China, Japan, and South Korea, to counter U.S. policies [5][7] Group 3 - The article suggests that the upcoming APEC meeting in 2025 presents an opportunity for China, Japan, and South Korea to strengthen their collaboration, particularly in the renewable energy sector [5] - It highlights the complementary nature of the three countries' industries, which could lead to significant control over the global renewable energy market if they work together [5] - The article concludes that the U.S. is becoming increasingly isolated due to its aggressive trade tactics, and the future of global trade dynamics will depend on the cooperation among East Asian nations and the U.S.'s ability to reassess its trade strategies [7]
冠通每日交易策略-20250707
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 11:35
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall trend of the domestic futures market on July 7, 2025, was more declines than increases. The prices of various commodities were affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical risks. Different commodities had different trends and outlooks, including high - level oscillations, low - level oscillations, and trends of being strong or weak [7]. Summary by Commodity Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium closed flat after opening lower and rising higher. The average price of SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium was 62,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade was 60,950 yuan/ton, both up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply was relatively abundant, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.8%, slightly down from last week. The price of spodumene concentrate was 660 yuan/ton, up 30 dollars/ton week - on - week. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the inventory remained high. The market was affected by the idea of capacity clearance, increasing the expectation of tight supply. The tariff exemption period ended on the 9th, and there might be variables in tariffs. The market was in high - level consolidation and mainly showed a strong trend [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and fell during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal was 745 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. In May, the import volume of coal decreased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remained at a low level this year. Domestic coal production increased this period. The inventory of ports and independent coking enterprises increased significantly, and the supply was still loose. The steel mill's demand was still rigid, but the coke price was lowered four times, and the terminal's operating rate was low in high - temperature and rainy weather. The coking coal market was expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside was limited [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened lower, fluctuated, and closed down. The overseas macro - environment was mainly about the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the subsequent tariff situation after the expiration of the US tariff exemption period. The employment data was better than expected, increasing the market's wait - and - see attitude towards the Fed's interest - rate cut. The tariff exemption period expired this week. The supply tightness expectation was slightly improved, but the copper inventory in other regions continued to decline. The demand was expected to enter the off - season in July, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the US tariff policy [9]. Crude Oil - The tension in the Middle East geopolitical situation was greatly relieved, and the market's concern about the supply interruption of crude oil was alleviated. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It was recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt's supply was increasing, with the production expected to reach 2.542 million tons in July, a 6.0% increase from the previous month. The downstream demand was affected by funds and weather. The Middle East geopolitical risk was reduced, and OPEC + planned to increase production in August. It was recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt at low prices [12]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP decreased, and the upstream propane import was restricted. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the downstream recovery was slow, and the inventory pressure was large. It was expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The plastic's operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream operating rate decreased. The upstream ethane import was restricted, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, and it was expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC's supply was decreasing, and the downstream demand was still weak. The export was restricted by policies, and the inventory was high. The real - estate market improvement needed time. It was expected to oscillate at a low level, and it was recommended to short at high prices [17]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean supply was still in surplus, and the domestic soybean import and oil - mill operating rate were high. The soybean meal inventory was accumulating, and the market was affected by multiple factors. It was expected to oscillate weakly [18][19]. Soybean Oil - The international soybean oil demand was expected to increase, but the price rebound was restricted by weather and export sales. The domestic soybean - oil supply was abundant, and the inventory was rising. The terminal demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the EPA's hearing on biofuel blending targets [20]. Rebar - The rebar's supply pressure was not substantially relieved, and the demand was affected by high - temperature and rainy weather. The inventory was expected to accumulate, and the cost support was weakening. It was expected to oscillate downward, and it was recommended to short in bands [21][22]. Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil's supply was increasing, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory was accumulating, and the policy implementation was slow. It was expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [23][25]. Urea - The urea's supply was expected to increase this week, and the demand was weak both in industry and agriculture. The inventory was decreasing, and the export supported the price. It was expected to oscillate strongly [26].
冠通期货每周核心策略推荐-20250706
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 13:24
本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货 每周核心策略推荐 铜 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周沪铜先扬后抑,宏观来看,本周国际市场地缘冲突为主要矛盾,伊以冲突加剧全球经济不确定性,原油价格上涨助推全球通货膨胀速 | | | | | 度,美元指数反弹,压制了有色市场的上涨空间,周三美联储议息仍按兵不动。预计今年仍降息两次共50个基点,目前市场关注伊朗是否 | | | | | 封锁霍尔木兹海峡。若其真正封锁,将对全球经济造成冲击。供给方面,截至2025年6月20日,现货租炼带为-43.70美元/于吨,现货精炼 | | | | | 费为-4.36美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上,铜供应量依然在走强,库存端全球铜库存去化,其中套利驱使下,伦铜 | | | | | 太幅去化,美铜依然在快速赛库,国内目前银去化幅度较缓。主要系建低净货为主。需求方面,截至2025年4月,电解铜表观消费128.27万 | | | | | 吨,相比上月涨跌-8.97万吨,涨跌幅-6.54%。全球经济不确定性的 ...
沥青策略:逢低做多沥青09-12价差
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 10:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to buy low and go long on the spread between asphalt 09 and 12 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Strategy Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5%, 6.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [1]. - In July, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries varied; the road asphalt operating rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 24.0%, near the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and southern rainfall and high temperatures [1]. - Last week, the spot price in the northwest region increased slightly, with a large increase in shipments. The national shipments increased by 0.42% to 289,500 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline last week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. The demand in the north is fair [1]. - The intensity of Iran's retaliatory action was less than expected, and Israel and Iran ceased fire, sharply reducing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Trump announced the termination of the original plan to relax sanctions on Iran [1]. - The panic over the global trade war has eased, but the shadow still lingers. The Trump administration issued a simplified license to Chevron but prohibited oil production in Venezuela. Trump said the US - Vietnam trade agreement boosted the crude oil market sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract rose 0.25% to 3,588 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,565 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,601 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 5,171 to 222,124 lots [2]. Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,815 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract fell to 227 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, facilities such as Zhonghai Binzhou and Wenzhou Zhongyou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5%, 6.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to April, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly declined compared to January - March 2025, still negative [4]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 0.4%, slightly up from - 0.9% from January to April 2025, still negative [4]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.5%, slightly down from 5.8% from January to April 2025 [4]. - As of the week of June 27, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries varied; the road asphalt operating rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 24.0%, near the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and southern rainfall [4]. - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit rate of about 4% (1 percentage point higher than last year), a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan (1.6 trillion yuan more than last year), and a significant increase in various bond issuances [4]. Inventory - As of the week of June 27, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 16.0% compared to the week of June 20, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].
特朗普对华口风突变,一句话让美媒哑火,全球加税中国成了例外?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 16:22
当福克斯新闻主持人试图诱导特朗普指责中国"敌对行为"时,这位素来口无遮拦的总统却罕见地为中国 说起"好话"。 6月29日播出的专访中,当福克斯主持人试图诱导他指责中国"敌对行为"时,特朗普没有顺势发难,不 仅强调与中国"相处融洽",更反将一军指出美国同样采取过对抗行动,反而罕见承认"美国也对中国采 取了很多敌对行动",让主持人都一时语塞。 特朗普为啥突然口风突变?一方面是他要访华了,抵达北京前要是出现一些"反华"舆论对谁都不好。 另一方面,就是美国设下的关税大限将至,特朗普又表示不会延长期限,换言之他已经抡起大棒准备砸 到盟友头上,但中国是个例外,特朗普并不想将刚刚拿到手的稀土给"吐出来",更不想让持续数月的谈 判努力付诸东流。 时间拨回4月,美国政府宣布对欧盟、日本等经济体暂停加征钢铝关税90天。值得注意的是,当时这 份"豁免名单"里并没有中国。 美方好不容易和中方达成协议,若此时再度翻脸,最受损了就是特朗普的基本盘了,即便是为了这个, 特朗普都不敢对中国轻举妄动。 可见中方一次次的对等反制成功让美国心生忌惮,而中方手握的筹码更令特朗普投鼠忌器。 因为直到5月12日日内瓦会谈后,中美才达成相互暂停24%关税 ...
冠通每日交易策略-20250701
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 12:25
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The copper market is affected by tariff issues and economic uncertainties, with the potential for price fluctuations. The price of copper is supported by the decline of the US dollar index [3]. - The price of coking coal is expected to be weak due to the high - production expectation on the supply side and the off - season consumption on the demand side [5]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate as the market is in a loose state and the upward movement of the futures price lacks fundamental support [10]. - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled down, and the supply and demand of crude oil have improved marginally. It is recommended to cautiously operate and lightly buy put options on crude oil [11][12]. - The price of asphalt is recommended to be cautiously operated, and it is advisable to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices as it is gradually entering the peak season [13]. - The price of PP is expected to oscillate at a low level due to factors such as new production capacity, slow downstream recovery, and the decline of crude oil prices [14][15]. - The price of plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level because of factors including new production capacity, the off - season of downstream demand, and the decline of crude oil prices [16]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short at high prices due to factors such as the decline of demand and the fall of coal prices [17][18]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas [19]. - The price of soybean oil is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather during the growth period and the US biodiesel policy [20][21]. - The price of rebar is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term under the suppression of weak demand [22][24]. - The price of hot - rolled coil may be under pressure if the billet export policy is restricted and the production capacity is released [25]. - The price of urea is expected to consolidate, waiting for new market drivers, with weak fundamentals and some support from export and the end of summer fertilizer sales [26][27]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market trend**: Opened low and closed high with a late - session rally [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is still increasing, the global copper inventory is being depleted at different speeds, and the demand is weak except for low - price purchases. The tariff issue may cause price fluctuations, and the decline of the US dollar index supports the price [3]. Coking Coal - **Market trend**: Opened low, fluctuated under pressure, and closed down more than 3% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from coke enterprises is low, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market trend**: Opened high, closed low, and rallied at the end [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of spodumene is rising, the domestic production is increasing, the import is weakening, and the downstream demand is stable. The market is in a loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate [10]. Crude Oil - **Market trend**: Affected by geopolitical events [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled down, the supply and demand have improved marginally, and attention should be paid to the OPEC + meeting. It is recommended to cautiously operate [11][12]. Asphalt - **Market trend**: Followed the decline of crude oil [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is restricted, and the basis has strengthened. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. PP - **Market trend**: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, the supply has new production capacity and some maintenance, the inventory pressure is high, and the price of crude oil has declined [14][15]. Plastic - **Market trend**: Expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The start - up rate has increased, the downstream demand is in the off - season, the inventory pressure is high, and the price of crude oil has declined [16]. PVC - **Market trend**: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply start - up rate has decreased, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the price of coal has declined. It is recommended to go short at high prices [17][18]. Soybean Meal - **Market trend**: Oscillated slightly with a 0.10% increase [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean data is neutral to slightly bearish, the domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, the inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [19]. Soybean Oil - **Market trend**: Oscillated with a 0.03% decrease [20][21]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean data has limited impact, the domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [20][21]. Rebar - **Market trend**: Rose first and then fell [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has increased, the inventory depletion has slowed down, the demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [22][24]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market trend**: Rose slightly after facing resistance [25]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand is weak, the cost support is weakening, and the export sustainability is questionable. The price may be under pressure [25]. Urea - **Market trend**: Opened low, was under pressure during the session, and rallied at the end to turn positive [26]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has little change, the demand is weakening, the inventory is being depleted due to export, and the price is expected to consolidate [26][27].
打关税战,一味的躲是没用的,中国用实际行动,给日本打了个样
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-30 14:29
Group 1 - The core issue of the global trade war is the impending end of the 90-day suspension period for "reciprocal tariffs" announced by the Trump administration, which is set to expire on July 9 [3] - China's Ministry of Commerce has issued a strong warning against any party sacrificing Chinese interests for trade negotiations, indicating a firm stance in the ongoing discussions [3][5] - The focus of the current global trade situation is shifting towards geopolitical dynamics rather than just tariff negotiations, as the U.S. seeks to form an "anti-China alliance" with other countries [5] Group 2 - The European Union is experiencing internal divisions, with Germany proposing to accept a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" from the U.S., which raises questions about its role as the EU's economic engine [6][8] - French President Macron has taken a hardline stance, insisting on either zero tariffs or a trade war, reflecting the significant stakes for French agricultural exports [8] - The UK has already moved forward with a temporary agreement with the U.S., raising concerns about the implications and hidden clauses within this deal [8] Group 3 - Japan has surprisingly taken a strong position against the U.S. regarding tariffs, with its government demanding either zero tariffs or no negotiations, despite its significant automotive exports to the U.S. [9][11] - Japan is reportedly adjusting its strategy by leveraging its rare earth resources to negotiate for exemptions on automotive tariffs, indicating a complex trade maneuvering [11] - India is rapidly advancing negotiations with the U.S., potentially at the risk of becoming a tool for U.S. interests in Asia, which could have significant implications for the global trade landscape [13][14]
冠通每日交易策略-20250630
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 13:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including expectations of an oscillating adjustment for soybean meal futures, a decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks for crude oil with a suggestion to cautiously buy bearish options, and a slow rise in copper prices with opportunities to go long at low prices. It also provides trend analyses and operation suggestions for other varieties such as asphalt, PP, and more [3][5][10]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The 09 - contract of soybean meal opened higher and oscillated narrowly, closing with a 0.78% increase. In the US, the proportion of soybean crops in drought - affected areas decreased, and favorable weather is expected. In China, the soybean crushing volume reached a record high last week, and the expected volume this week remains high. The market is supported by increased import costs but has limited upward momentum, likely to oscillate [3]. Crude Oil - After the US military's intervention and subsequent cease - fire between Iran and Israel, Middle - East geopolitical risks have significantly decreased, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions. The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting on July 6. With seasonal demand and supply - demand improvements, it is recommended to cautiously buy bearish options [5]. Copper - The copper market is currently oscillating strongly. Fed rate - cut uncertainty supports non - ferrous metals. China's copper production is high but may decline later. Demand has weakened marginally but remains resilient. Global inventories are decreasing, and copper prices are expected to rise slowly in oscillations [10]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium opened high, oscillated, and closed lower. Supply is sufficient, and the price is approaching the cost line. Downstream demand is mainly for essential needs, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply is increasing, and downstream demand is mixed. The Middle - East geopolitical risk has decreased, and the price has fallen. The basis has strengthened. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13][15]. PP - PP downstream and enterprise operating rates are low. New capacity has been added, and inventory pressure is high. With the decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks and crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. Plastic - Plastic operating rates have increased, but downstream demand is weak. New capacity has been added, and inventory pressure remains. With the decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks and crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. PVC - PVC supply and demand are both weak. Inventory is high, and the market is affected by factors such as the Indian policy and coal prices. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [19]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil 09 - contract oscillated after a slight decline. The US soybean weather is favorable, and China's soybean crushing volume is high. The market lacks external guidance and is expected to oscillate within a range [20][21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low. Supply has decreased, and demand is weak. The market is expected to return to a loose state, and short - selling opportunities at high prices should be watched [22]. Rebar - Rebar prices rose slightly. Supply has decreased, and demand is seasonally weak. Macro - level expectations provide support, but continuous price increases face pressure, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][24]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Hot - rolled coil prices oscillated slightly higher. Supply is stable, and demand is seasonally weak but supported by macro - level expectations. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Inventory has decreased due to port shipments. It is expected to oscillate weakly [27].