Group 1: Global Trade Dynamics - The ongoing trade war, primarily driven by the U.S. under President Trump, is creating significant global economic implications, with the EU seeking to navigate its interests amidst U.S.-China tensions [1] - Trump's tiered tariff strategy, which includes a baseline 15% tariff, disproportionately impacts specific industries, such as a potential €26 billion loss for the German automotive sector and pressures on French brandy producers from Chinese anti-dumping investigations [3] - The EU's recent negotiations with China faced strong resistance, particularly regarding requests to lift rare earth export controls and halt energy trade with Russia, highlighting the complexities of international trade relations [4] Group 2: Economic Cooperation Amidst Tensions - Despite the political tensions, there are signs of pragmatic economic cooperation, such as the resumption of negotiations on electric vehicle anti-subsidy agreements and commitments from China to facilitate compliance applications for rare earth exports [6] - The logistics sector is feeling the strain from tariffs, with UPS announcing a workforce reduction of 20,000 and shipping costs rising by 20%, indicating the broader impact of trade policies on operational costs [8] - The deep interconnections in the global economy are evident, with significant trade flows continuing between the EU and China, including a notable increase in Chinese investments in the Eurozone despite rising tensions [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips or implementing a 09 - 01 reverse spread. Although there are issues such as high inventory and low - season demand in the plastics industry, the upcoming release of a new round of stability - growth work plans for key industries and the elimination of old and backward devices are expected to improve market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 24, the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high. The coal price has risen significantly due to production checks. With new capacity coming on - stream and restart of some devices, the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. Considering the upcoming policies and market sentiment improvement, it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated upward with a decrease in positions, closing at 7385 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased by 16,764 lots to 371,617 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 30 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 7160 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9280 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7620 - 8250 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On July 24, the number of overhaul devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of July 18, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%. The agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 15,000 tons to 750,000 tons, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high [4] - Raw Materials: Brent crude oil's October contract oscillated around $68/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $830/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of crude oil, PVC,沪铜, urea, asphalt, PP, plastic,豆油,豆粕,焦煤,螺纹钢, and热卷 are expected to show different trends. Crude oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the near term; PVC is expected to be in a low - level oscillation;沪铜 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term; urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillation; asphalt is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices; PP and plastic are expected to be in low - level oscillations;豆油's basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation;豆粕 is expected to be strong in the short term;焦煤 is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term;螺纹钢 is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend;热卷 is expected to run in an interval oscillation [3][6][11][14][15][17][18][20][22][23][25][27] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and concerns about supply disruptions have eased. However, the subsequent development of the situation needs attention [3] - Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventories are at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding expectations [3] - Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, exceeding expectations. OPEC + is discussing suspending further production increases from October [3] - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, and the market has reflected the accelerated production increase of OPEC +. The IEA has raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025 [3] - Concerns about trade negotiations and sanctions policies need attention, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile [3][5] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide has increased in some areas, and the PVC operating rate has increased, but downstream operating rates are low, and procurement is cautious [6] - India has postponed the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventories continue to increase, and the real estate market is still in adjustment [6] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [6] 沪铜 - The Fed's possible interest rate cut has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous market. Copper smelting processing fees have stopped falling and stabilized, and copper supply expectations have improved [11] - Electrolytic copper consumption has increased, but downstream procurement sentiment is weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased, and the spot premium has strengthened [11] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Fed's interest - rate decision [11] Carbonate Lithium - The price has risen due to market sentiment, but the actual impact on the fundamentals is small. Supply has increased, and inventories have continued to accumulate [12] - The price of spodumene has increased, providing cost support. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the new energy vehicle market has shown an upward trend [12][13] - The futures price is far higher than the spot price, and the market is dominated by sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, a correction is expected [13] Urea - The upstream has lowered prices to attract orders, and the downstream has replenished inventory at low prices, with good market transactions. This week's production has decreased, and next week's production is expected to increase [14] - Northern agricultural demand is coming to an end, and compound fertilizer factories' demand has increased slightly. Inventories have continued to decrease, but the rate has slowed down [14] - The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [14] Asphalt - The operating rate has increased but is still at a low level. July's production is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates have fluctuated, and shipments have decreased [15] - Inventories have increased slightly, and terminal project funds are restricted. Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and crude oil prices have risen [15][16] - It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [16] PP - The downstream operating rate has decreased, and US tariffs and import restrictions have affected the industry. Some overhaul devices have restarted, and the enterprise operating rate has increased [17] - Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand recovery is slow [17] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [17] Plastic - The operating rate has remained stable, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. US tariffs and import restrictions have an impact, but the cancellation of US ethane restrictions is beneficial [18] - New production capacity has been put into operation, and some overhaul devices have restarted. The off - season demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high [18][19] - The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the development of the global trade war [19] 豆油 - The price has risen, and if it breaks through the key resistance level, there may be room for further increase. The domestic oil mill operating rate and crushing volume are high, and the US soybean production outlook is optimistic [20] - International oil prices have risen, which may boost the demand for vegetable oils. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending may push up the price of palm oil and indirectly affect 豆油 [20] - The basis is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather changes [20] 豆粕 - The price has risen strongly, breaking through the 3000 mark. The US soybean crop conditions have improved, and domestic inventories are high, but there is a large gap in fourth - quarter import orders [21][22] - Consumption demand has increased, but the adjustment of the aquaculture industry and high - temperature weather may reduce demand [22] - The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the fourth - quarter soybean procurement progress and the adjustment of the aquaculture industry [22] 焦煤 - The price has risen. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, and production at mines and coal - washing plants has increased. Mine inventories have decreased, and downstream inventories have increased [23] - The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a second - round increase. Downstream demand is strong, and steel mill profits have increased [23] - The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of Mongolian coal customs clearance and Indonesian export taxes [23] 螺纹钢 - The price has shown a "strong oscillation and then a decline" trend. Supply and demand have both weakened, with production and apparent demand decreasing. However, the profit per ton of steel is good, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored [25] - Demand has continued to weaken seasonally, and engineering funds are at a low level. Inventories are at a low level, and the contradiction is not prominent. Policy expectations and raw material strength provide cost support [25] - The price is expected to continue the oscillation and stabilization trend, but attention should be paid to the possible correction of macro - optimistic expectations [25] 热卷 - The price has shown a "rising and then oscillating" trend. Production has increased marginally, but there may be a decline in the future. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and export has improved marginally, but there are still risks [26][27] - Inventories have decreased slowly, and there is a risk of passive inventory accumulation in the off - season. The price is under pressure but also has strong support [27] - The price is expected to run in an interval oscillation, with an upper pressure of 3350 yuan/ton [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PP industry is "oscillating downward", and the strategy is to "short on rallies" [1] Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience low - level oscillations. The downstream开工率 is low, the upstream has supply constraints, and factors such as global trade and raw material prices also affect the market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 48.64%, with the plastic weaving开工率 down 0.2 percentage points to 42.0%. US tariff hikes and propane import restrictions impact the market. On July 11, some overhauled devices restarted, and the PP企业开工率 rose to about 83.5%. The proportion of standard product drawing production dropped to about 24.5%. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of further production increases from October, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast. New production capacity was put into operation in June, and recent device overhauls have alleviated some pressure. With the arrival of the rainy and hot season in the South, downstream recovery is slow, and inventory pressure is still high [1] Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PP2509 contract decreased in an oscillating manner, with a low of 7053 yuan/ton, a high of 7105 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7069 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The position decreased by 2015 lots to 394188 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable, with drawing quoted at 6950 - 7270 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 11, some overhauled devices restarted, and the PP企业开工率 rose to about 83.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 11, the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 48.64%, at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The plastic weaving开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 42.0%, and plastic weaving orders slightly decreased [4] - **Inventory**: On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 72.5 tons, 4.5 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a moderate level compared to recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract dropped to 69 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by 5 US dollars/ton to 775 US dollars/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Suggest going long on the spread between asphalt 09 and 12 contracts on dips as the market is gradually entering the peak season [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 32.7% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In July, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years. Constrained by funds and heavy rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1] - Inventory: As of the week of July 11, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio continued to rise slightly week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1][5] - Market environment: The intensity of Iran's retaliatory actions was lower than expected, and Israel and Iran reached a cease - fire, sharply reducing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, the US Treasury recently announced new sanctions against Iran. The panic over the global trade war has eased, but the shadow still lingers. Crude oil prices have been fluctuating within a narrow range recently [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract fell 0.52% to 3,606 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a low of 3,598 yuan/ton and a high of 3,618 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 9,424 to 217,364 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,825 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 219 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: A refinery in Shandong resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 32.7% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to May, the national highway construction investment decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to decline slightly compared with January - April 2025. From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 0.4%, a slight increase from - 0.9% in January - April 2025. From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.5%, a slight decrease from 5.8% in January - April 2025 [4] - Fiscal policy: The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year. The deficit rate is planned to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from last year. The deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year. The general public budget expenditure is 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from last year. The total new government debt scale this year is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from last year [4]

Report Summary Overall Market Performance - As of July 11, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performances. Coking coal rose over 3%, coke and glass rose over 2%, while aluminum oxide fell over 2%. Regarding stock index futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.25%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 4.43 billion, while Shanghai Gold 2510 had an outflow of 435 million [7]. Industry - Specific Analysis Coking Coal - The price of coking coal opened high and strengthened during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market was 970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to the closure of the Sino - Mongolian border during Mongolia's National Naadam Festival and the impact of supply - side reforms, the supply pressure eased. Coke enterprises proposed a price increase, and the short - term market remained strong [3]. Crude Oil - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks reduced concerns about supply disruptions. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC also lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years. The market was expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation and the outcome of trade negotiations [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened high and weakened during the day. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1. Supply was expected to improve, and demand was expected to enter the off - season. The market was bearish in the short term, and prices were expected to be volatile [9]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium opened high and closed down after fluctuations. The spot price continued to rise, but the market deviated from the fundamental logic. Supply was abundant, and the market was mainly affected by news and macro - sentiment. The price was expected to be high and volatile, and there was a risk of a sharp decline [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate increased, while the downstream construction rate mostly decreased. The inventory was at a low level. With the approaching peak season and the narrowing of the price range of crude oil, it was recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased, and the production rate of enterprises increased. The market was affected by tariffs and the expected slowdown of global oil demand. Supply pressure was relieved to some extent, but demand recovery was slow. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The production rate of plastic increased, while the downstream开工率 decreased. The market was affected by tariffs and the situation of global oil demand. Although the cost might decrease, demand recovery was slow, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC production rate decreased, and the downstream开工率 was low. Export was restricted, and inventory was high. The market was affected by the real - estate situation and new production capacity. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. Soybean Oil - The price of soybean oil showed a high - opening and volatile trend, approaching the 8000 - yuan/ton pressure level. Supply was abundant, and demand increased recently. The price was expected to be volatile and strong, but the upside was limited [19]. Soybean Meal - The price of soybean meal rose. Supply was under pressure due to high domestic oil - mill operating rates, and demand improved slightly. The price was affected by factors such as US soybean production, trade policies, and livestock farming. It was necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [21]. Rebar - Rebar showed a strong - oscillating trend. Supply and demand were both weak, with production decreasing and demand in the seasonal off - season. Inventory was still high, but cost support was strong. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [23]. Hot Rolled Coil - Hot rolled coil showed a strong - oscillating trend with "high - rising and falling back". Supply and demand both decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The market was affected by policies and raw - material prices. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [24][25]. Urea - The urea price closed down after fluctuations. Production was stable, and demand was weak in the industrial sector but had local increases in the agricultural sector. Inventory decreased continuously. The price was expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to export policies [26].

Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration has resulted in only three countries—UK, Vietnam, and Cambodia—signing preliminary agreements with the US, leading to a postponement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy until August 1, indicating a failure of the trade strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Global Response - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, the Trump administration aimed to reshape global trade rules using economic leverage, but only three countries have engaged, while major economies like China, EU, Japan, South Korea, India, Canada, and Mexico have refused to cooperate [3][5]. - The three countries that signed agreements are highly dependent on exports to the US, indicating limited bargaining power, while significant economies are planning countermeasures [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact on the US - Major financial figures, including the Federal Reserve and Warren Buffett, have criticized the tariff policy as detrimental to US consumers and manufacturing, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 5.4% since the implementation of tariffs, and food prices increasing by 8.2% [5][7]. - The policy is seen as a tax on American households, leading to increased costs for imported goods, which could result in a slowdown in consumption, reduced corporate profits, and a cooling job market [7][9]. Group 3: International Relations and Trust - Traditional allies, including the EU, Japan, and South Korea, have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the US's approach, with the EU planning to implement counter-tariffs and Japan highlighting violations of WTO rules [9][11]. - The US's actions have led to a significant erosion of its diplomatic influence, with countries reassessing the long-term value of cooperation with the US [11][14]. Group 4: Shift in Global Economic Dynamics - The tariffs have catalyzed a shift towards "de-dollarization" and reduced reliance on the US, with trade among RCEP countries increasing by 17% and trade between the US and EU declining by 9.3% [14][16]. - Historical precedents indicate that aggressive tariff policies have previously led to significant global economic downturns, suggesting that the current situation may have similarly severe consequences [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene (PP) market is experiencing a decline in downstream operating rates, leading to supply pressure and potential price fluctuations at low levels [1] Group 1: Downstream Operations - The PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 48.78%, which is lower than the historical average for this time of year [1] - The operating rate for plastic weaving fell by 1.0 percentage points to 42.2%, with a slight reduction in orders, although it remains higher than the same period in the previous two years [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. has impacted PP downstream product exports, while propane imports for polypropylene production are restricted [1] - New maintenance at Yulong Petrochemical's third line has caused the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 82%, indicating a neutral to low level [1] - The production ratio for standard filament has decreased to approximately 28.5%, with inventory levels remaining neutral compared to previous years [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - Following OPEC+'s agreement to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, oil prices have seen a rebound after a decline [1] - The southern region is entering a rainy and hot season, leading to slow recovery in downstream operations, reduced plastic weaving activity, and limited new orders [1] - The market is expected to see low-level fluctuations in PP prices, with a need to monitor global trade war developments [1] Group 4: Futures and Spot Market - The PP2509 futures contract experienced a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 7040 yuan/ton and a maximum of 7080 yuan/ton, closing at 7078 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.34% increase [1] - Spot prices for PP in various regions have mostly declined, with filament prices reported between 6950 and 7250 yuan/ton [1] Group 5: Raw Material Prices - As of July 4, the weekly inventory of PP in petrochemical companies decreased by 15,000 tons to 765,000 tons, which is lower than the same period last year [1] - The Brent crude oil September contract rose to $70 per barrel, while the CFR propylene price in China fell by $10 per ton to $785 per ton [1]

豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 2025 年 07 月 09 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：天气良好、美豆收跌，连粕或偏弱震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4104 | +13（+0.32%） 4106 | +16（+0.39%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2935 | -13（-0.44%） 2936 | -2 （-0.07%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1017.75 | -3.0（-0.29%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 284.4 | -2.0（-0.70%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 2820～2880， | 较昨-10至持平； 8-9月M2509+0/+30/+60， | 持平;10-11月 | | | 山东 ...

特朗普周二进一步扩大全球贸易战，宣布对进口铜征收50%关税，并表示长期以来威胁要征收的半导体和药品关税即将出台。他还表示，美国与欧盟和中国的贸易谈判进展良好，但表示“很可能”在两天内告诉欧盟对美出口的预期税率。特朗普也表示，将很快对药品征收高达200%的关税，但将给药企至少一年的时间，在关税生效前将供应链转移回美国。COMEX9月期铜合约最终收涨13%，创下最高收盘纪录，盘中涨超17%，创下37年以来最大盘中涨幅。在潜在进口关税威胁下，全球各地加快向美国运输铜，上个月LME可用库存规模一度降至相当于不足全球一天的使用量。 ...