Core Viewpoint - The digital currency market experienced significant volatility, leading to a large number of liquidations among investors, with over 123,000 liquidations totaling more than $457 million in the past 24 hours [2][8]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fluctuated dramatically, rising over $2,000 from around $104,000, then dropping nearly $4,000, and currently trading around $103,800 [3]. - Ethereum saw a sharp decline, dropping over $200 to a current price of $2,440, reflecting a daily decrease of more than 4% [5]. - Other cryptocurrencies, including Dogecoin, SOL, and SUI, also experienced declines exceeding 4% [7]. Liquidation Statistics - In the last 24 hours, the total liquidation amount reached $457 million, with long positions suffering the most, accounting for over $400 million of the total [8]. - The largest single liquidation occurred in Bitcoin, amounting to $8 million [8]. Market Influences - The recent downturn in the digital currency market is attributed to several factors, including uncertainty regarding global inflation, geopolitical tensions causing liquidity fears, heightened scrutiny from the SEC, and profit-taking by investors who previously held long positions [8]. - Additionally, the prices of gold and silver have also declined in response to the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, with gold prices dropping approximately $100 from a peak of $3,450 per ounce [9].

Market Overview - The digital currency market experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin's price fluctuating dramatically, dropping to around $104,000 before rebounding over $2,000 and then falling nearly $4,000 again, settling at approximately $103,500 [1] - Ethereum also saw a sharp decline, dropping over $200 to a price of $2,440, representing a daily decrease of more than 4.5% [2] - Other cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin, SOL, and SUI also faced declines exceeding 4% [3] Liquidation Statistics - Over the past 24 hours, more than 130,000 investors were liquidated globally, with total liquidation amounts exceeding $460 million [3] - Long positions were particularly affected, with liquidation amounts surpassing $500 million, and the largest single liquidation occurred in Bitcoin, amounting to approximately $8 million [3] Market Influences - The recent downturn in the digital currency market is attributed to several factors, including unclear global inflation prospects, high geopolitical uncertainties causing liquidity panic, an escalation in SEC policy reviews, and profit-taking by investors who previously went long [5] - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, precious metals like gold and silver also saw declines, with gold prices dropping approximately $80 from a peak of $3,450 per ounce [5] Economic Commentary - Former President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, suggesting that a reduction to 1-2% could save the U.S. up to $1 trillion annually [10][11] - Trump criticized Powell's handling of inflation and hinted at possibly reconsidering his previous stance on Powell's job security [10][11]

上周，与美联储政策利率挂钩的利率期货盘中反映出市场对美联储自9月起连续两次降息的押注不断升 温。美国劳工部数据显示，周度首次申请失业救济人数维持在相对高位，显示劳动力市场正在逐步降 温，进一步强化了投资者对宽松政策的预期。与此同时，另一份政府报告显示，5月美国生产者价格指 数（PPI）同比上涨2.6%，与经济学家预期一致，表明通胀压力并未进一步加剧。 值得注意的是，CME"美联储观察"预测，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为96.9%，降息25个基点的概 率为3.1%。美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为77.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为21.5%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为0.6%。美联储到9月维持利率不变的概率为27.5%，累计降息25个基点和50个基点的概率 分别为58%、14.1%。 封面新闻记者 朱宁 当地时间6月13日凌晨，以色列对伊朗核设施和军事设施发动袭击，此举导致全球油价飙升，有投资者 和分析师担心，冲突升级可能导致全球通胀上升，包括美国，此举这可能会促使美联储延长"按兵不 动"的时间。 花旗集团高级全球经济学家Robert Sockin表示："如果这种情况进一步加深，油价持续保持高位，那么 美 ...

凯投宏观：油价上升，但全球通胀不太可能持续飙升 金十数据6月13日讯，凯投宏观的分析师在一份报告中写道，尽管以色列上周五袭击伊朗后油价有所上 涨，但全球通胀不太可能持续飙升。伊朗科学家和军方领导人遇袭事件再次引发了人们对冲突升级的担 忧。目前来看，价格上涨更多是由于风险溢价，而不是市场的根本变化。但他们表示，如果伊朗关闭霍 尔木兹海峡，或者伊朗的石油储备从全球市场撤出，那么能源价格可能会保持在高位。由此产生的通胀 冲击将是有限的，但可能会让各国央行保持谨慎。 ...

Group 1 - The World Bank does not expect a global economic recession, but anticipates the slowest growth since 2008 due to heightened tensions and policy uncertainty [1] - Approximately 70% of economies have had their growth forecasts downgraded, with a projected global growth rate of 2.3% in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than earlier predictions [1] - Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.2% this year, with the U.S. growth forecast significantly reduced from 2.3% to 1.4%, and both the Eurozone and Japan's growth downgraded to 0.7% [1] Group 2 - Nearly 60% of developing economies are projected to experience a slowdown, with growth for emerging markets and developing economies estimated at 3.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from previous forecasts [3] - The average growth rate for developing economies is expected to decline from 6% in the first decade of the 21st century to below 4% in the third decade, correlating with a decrease in global trade growth [3][4] - Global inflation is expected to remain elevated, with an average rate of 2.9% in 2025, still above pre-pandemic levels, driven by increased tariffs and tightening labor markets [3] Group 3 - The slowdown in growth will hinder efforts in developing economies to create jobs, reduce extreme poverty, and narrow the income gap with developed economies, with per capita income growth projected at 2.9% for 2025, 1.1 percentage points lower than the 2000-2019 average [4] - The World Bank suggests that global economic recovery in 2026 and 2027 will depend significantly on changes in global trade policies [5] - If major economies can alleviate trade tensions, global growth could rebound faster than expected, with potential increases of 0.2 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 if tariffs are halved [6] Group 4 - By region, East Asia and the Pacific are expected to see growth slow to 4.5% in 2025, while Europe and Central Asia's growth will drop to 2.4% in the same year, with slight recoveries in subsequent years [6] - The Middle East and North Africa region is projected to accelerate to 2.7% in 2025, while South Asia's growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2025, stabilizing at 6.2% in 2026 and 2027 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility and uncertainty, with recent price fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions and economic factors [1][2]. Price Trends - On June 2, international gold prices surged past the key resistance level of $3,300 per ounce, closing at $3,406 per ounce, marking a nearly 3% increase and the largest single-day gain in three weeks [1]. - Earlier in April, gold prices reached a historical high of $3,509 per ounce before dropping to $3,245 due to easing geopolitical tensions, followed by a recovery supported by central bank gold purchases and rising inflation expectations in the U.S. [1]. Market Influences - The sensitivity of gold prices is attributed to its status as a recognized safe-haven asset, closely linked to global economic conditions, including U.S. Federal Reserve policy shifts, geopolitical conflicts, and global inflation trends [2]. - Major Wall Street firms have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, and JPMorgan predicting that gold could reach $4,000 sooner than expected [2]. Investment Trends - There is a growing trend of retail investors participating in gold investments, driven by social media discussions and investment analysis videos, leading to a surge in interest [3]. - Some investors are resorting to high-risk financing methods, such as consumer loans and credit cards, to invest in gold, which poses significant financial risks if prices decline [3]. Investment Strategies - Various investment methods for gold include physical gold (bars, coins) and gold ETFs, with the latter offering lower costs and higher liquidity [3]. - The 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) has gained attention for its strong performance, and investors can also consider ETF-linked funds for similar investment benefits [4].

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is facing significant uncertainty, as highlighted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Chair, Hawkesby [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The trajectory of the official cash rate reflects that global inflation is not as high as previously thought [1] - Future interest rate decisions will be contingent on evolving circumstances [1]

智通财经4月22日电，国际货币基金组织预计全球通胀回落速度将略低于此前预期。全球整体通胀率预 计在2025年降至4.3%，2026年降至3.6%。发达经济体的通胀预期有所上调，而新兴市场和发展中经济 体略有下调。 IMF：全球整体通胀率预计在2025年降至4.3% 2026年降至3.6% ...

Global Economy and Inflation - Global economic activity is on the rise, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaging 791.6 points as of February 14, 2025, an increase of 17.60 points from the previous week [3][14] - The CRB Commodity Price Index averaged 312.46 points during the same period, up by 4.23 points week-on-week, indicating rising inflation levels [3][18] Domestic Economy and Inflation - China's official manufacturing PMI for January 2025 is at 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [4][23] - The average price of pork in China was 28.24 yuan per kilogram as of February 6, 2025, a decrease of 0.06 yuan from the previous week, reflecting stable inflation [4][31] Industrial Production - The operating rate of high furnaces in China was 78% as of February 14, 2025, unchanged from the previous week, indicating stable industrial production [5][39] - The operating rate for rebar in major steel mills increased by 0.64 percentage points to 34.76% [5][40] Consumption - Essential goods consumption remains stable, with the Keqiao Textile Price Index at 104.07 points as of January 27, 2025, down 0.24 points from the previous week [6][52] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in China decreased to 24,400 units as of February 9, 2025, down by 40,700 units from the previous week, indicating a decline in discretionary spending [6][57] Investment - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities averaged 164,900 square meters per day as of February 16, 2025, an increase of 71,000 square meters from the previous week [7][61] - The operating rate of PTA in China was 82.33% as of February 13, 2025, up by 1.04 percentage points, indicating a strengthening manufacturing sector [7][43] Exports - The export container freight index was 1,387.16 points as of February 14, 2025, down by 27.87 points, reflecting a slight decline in export activity [8][75] - The foreign trade cargo throughput at major Chinese ports was 18,710.3 million tons for the week ending February 9, 2025, an increase of 3.46 million tons from the previous week [8][76] Emerging Industries - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached an average of 5,114.15 points as of February 14, 2025, an increase of 95.19 points, indicating a rising sentiment in the semiconductor sector [9][78] - The production of integrated circuits in China for the year ending December 2024 was 45,142,296.5 million pieces, up 22.20% year-on-year, reflecting strong growth in the electronics sector [9][83]