Group 1 - The core point of the news is the upcoming trade talks between China and the U.S., scheduled for July 27-30 in Sweden, aimed at extending the "tariff truce" and expanding the discussion topics [1][2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that the negotiations will cover China's export controls on rare earths, market access issues, and overall tariff levels [1] - The Chinese government has paused the antitrust investigation against DuPont China Group, signaling a potential easing of tensions following a series of retaliatory measures taken by China in response to U.S. tariffs [1] Group 2 - Experts emphasize the importance of these talks in building on the outcomes of previous discussions, particularly in resolving tariff issues related to fentanyl and enhancing economic cooperation between the two nations [2] - There is a general expectation from analysts that the new round of talks in Sweden will lead to further consensus, as dialogue is preferred over confrontation to create a more predictable environment for businesses [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively reshaping global trade rules by imposing significant tariffs on allies and restricting trade with China, which has led to a notable decline in trade volumes between the U.S. and China [1][3]. Trade Impact - U.S. tariffs have resulted in a 20.8% year-on-year decline in trade between the U.S. and China in the second quarter, reversing the growth seen in the first quarter [3]. - In the first half of the year, the total trade value between China and the U.S. was 2.08 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.3% compared to the previous year [1]. Trade Recovery Signs - June data showed a recovery in trade, with imports and exports between China and the U.S. exceeding 350 billion yuan, a significant increase from May's figures [3]. - The recovery is attributed to a temporary agreement reached in May, which paused tariff increases for 90 days, leading to increased imports from China as U.S. importers stockpiled goods [3]. China's Trade Resilience - Despite U.S. pressures, China's total goods trade in the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.2% [3][5]. - China has diversified its trade partnerships, with significant growth in trade with ASEAN (9.6% increase) and Africa (14.4% increase) [5]. U.S. Domestic Policy Disputes - There are increasing divisions within the U.S. regarding tariff policies, with some officials advocating for a more cautious approach to avoid negative economic consequences [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is reflected in the internal conflicts within the Trump administration regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership [5]. Future Trade Negotiations - As the deadline for the tariff pause approaches, there is speculation about the potential for further negotiations between the U.S. and China, with both sides showing a willingness to avoid escalating tensions [8][10]. - China's recent trade agreements and zero-tariff policies for least developed countries are seen as efforts to stabilize its trade amidst external pressures [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced an investigation into foreign imports of drones and polysilicon, which may serve as leverage in trade negotiations with China [1][2] - China dominates the drone and polysilicon industries, with a 92.08% share of global polysilicon production in 2023 [2] - The investigation is based on Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows the U.S. government to impose tariffs if imports are deemed a threat to national security [2][3] Group 2 - Experts suggest that even if tariffs are imposed, the impact on Chinese industries may not be substantial, but it could strengthen hardline voices within China [5][6] - The U.S. has previously targeted Chinese drones, with restrictions dating back to 2016, and continues to view companies like DJI as security threats [7][10] - DJI holds a significant market share, controlling approximately 90% of the U.S. commercial drone market and 80% of the global consumer drone market [7][10] Group 3 - The demand for drones in the U.S. is expected to continue growing, with various sectors relying on them for applications such as agriculture, construction, and emergency response [10] - Despite efforts to promote domestic drone manufacturing, U.S. companies struggle to compete with DJI's performance and pricing [10] - The U.S. government has initiated measures to ensure that the drone supply chain is not reliant on foreign control, emphasizing the need for domestic production [10]

【环球时报综合报道】"强劲的出口提振了中国经济，中国经济增长速度预计将超过政府设定的目标。"美国彭博社14日称。中国海关总署当天发布的数据显 示，今年上半年，我国货物贸易进出口21.79万亿元人民币，同比增长2.9%，创历史同期新高。其中出口13万亿元，增长7.2%；进口8.79万亿元，下降 2.7%。日本《朝日新闻》称，中美贸易战在今年4月激化，美国对中国商品加征的关税税率一度高达145%，中国对美出口连续3个月同比下降，但中国通过 拓展其他市场，依然实现了出口增长。同期，中国对东盟、欧盟、韩国、日本等国家和地区的进出口都实现了增长。《华尔街日报》称，中美5月会谈后达 成关税休战协议，贸易紧张局势缓和，中国6月份的出口增长速度加快，超出市场预期。15日，中国国家统计局将发布另一项重要数据：2025年上半年国内 生产总值（GDP）数据。彭博社等多家外媒认为，出口增速加快，进口增长恢复，国内消费提振，这一系列积极信号有助于中国实现2025年GDP增长"5%左 右"的预定目标。 数据显示，东盟继续稳居我国第一大贸易伙伴地位。今年上半年，中国对东盟进出口总值为3.67万亿元，同比增长9.6%。在日前召开的中国—东盟 ...

当福克斯新闻主持人试图诱导特朗普指责中国"敌对行为"时，这位素来口无遮拦的总统却罕见地为中国 说起"好话"。 6月29日播出的专访中，当福克斯主持人试图诱导他指责中国"敌对行为"时，特朗普没有顺势发难，不 仅强调与中国"相处融洽"，更反将一军指出美国同样采取过对抗行动，反而罕见承认"美国也对中国采 取了很多敌对行动"，让主持人都一时语塞。 特朗普为啥突然口风突变？一方面是他要访华了，抵达北京前要是出现一些"反华"舆论对谁都不好。 另一方面，就是美国设下的关税大限将至，特朗普又表示不会延长期限，换言之他已经抡起大棒准备砸 到盟友头上，但中国是个例外，特朗普并不想将刚刚拿到手的稀土给"吐出来"，更不想让持续数月的谈 判努力付诸东流。 时间拨回4月，美国政府宣布对欧盟、日本等经济体暂停加征钢铝关税90天。值得注意的是，当时这 份"豁免名单"里并没有中国。 美方好不容易和中方达成协议，若此时再度翻脸，最受损了就是特朗普的基本盘了，即便是为了这个， 特朗普都不敢对中国轻举妄动。 可见中方一次次的对等反制成功让美国心生忌惮，而中方手握的筹码更令特朗普投鼠忌器。 因为直到5月12日日内瓦会谈后，中美才达成相互暂停24%关税 ...

【环球时报综合报道】当地时间6月9日至10日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头 人、美国财政部长贝森特及商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次 会议。双方进行了坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首6月5日通 话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进 展。消息传出，亚洲股市普遍上涨。香港韩礼士基金会贸易政策主管黛博拉·埃尔姆斯告诉卡塔尔半岛 电视台，经过两轮"激烈"的谈判，中美双方似乎都重申了避免局势进一步升级的意愿，并开始使未来前 进道路更加清晰，但相关谈判绝非易事。日本《日经亚洲》引述哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院高级研究员安 德鲁·科利尔的话强调，虽然伦敦会谈并不是最终章，但这是积极的一步，表明中美双方的共识比第二 届特朗普政府上任之初预期的要多。他说，对抗的缓和可能会使中美经贸关系"重启"，避免"破裂"。 当地时间10日晚，为期两天的中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦结束。美国哥伦比亚广播公司称，此次 会议于9日持续了6个小时，10日又进行到深夜。 何立峰表示，本次会议是在两国元首今年6月5日战 ...

伦敦海运咨询公司德路里上周五发布的报告显示，3月下旬至5月中旬期间，德国不来梅港的泊位等待时间跃升77%。同期，安特卫普港的延误时间增加 37%，汉堡港增加49%，鹿特丹港和英国费利克斯托港的等待时间也有所延长。 智通财经APP获悉，一份新报告显示，北欧主要门户港口和其他枢纽港的拥堵状况正在恶化，贸易战可能会将海运中断蔓延至亚洲和美国，并推高航运费 率。 欧洲一些最繁忙的港口拥堵情况加剧 劳动力短缺和莱茵河水位偏低是主要原因，阻碍了往返内陆地区的驳船运输。加剧这些制约因素的是，美国总统特朗普暂时取消对中国进口商品加征145% 的关税，这提前释放了全球两大经济体之间的航运需求。 德路里表示："港口延误延长了运输时间，扰乱了库存规划，并迫使托运人增加库存。雪上加霜的是，跨太平洋东行贸易显示出旺季提前的迹象，原因是美 中关税90天的暂停期将于8月14日结束。"该机构表示，中国深圳以及洛杉矶和纽约也出现了类似的情况，"自4月下旬以来，等待泊位的集装箱船数量一直在 增加"。 总部位于汉堡的赫伯罗特股份公司首席执行官罗尔夫•哈本•詹森上周在一个网络研讨会上表示，尽管他最近看到了欧洲港口改善的迹象，但他预计"还需要 六到八 ...

周五(5月16日)亚市盘中，现货黄金短线突然快速下滑，金价目前跌至3211.31美元/盎司附近，日内大跌 28美元。本交易日将迎来美国5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、美国4月进口物价指数月率、美国4 月营建许可年化总数初值、美国4月新屋开工年化总数，投资者需要予以关注。另外，需要继续关注乌 克兰和俄罗斯的会谈，留意美国总统特朗普的动态消息。 【要闻回顾】 尽管关税休战最初缓解了市场对经济衰退的担忧，但MacroHive策略师本杰明·福特指出，市场已"耗尽 了"该声明带来的积极影响。 彭博社的一篇报道澄清称，美国在贸易谈判中并未寻求美元贬值，但由于市场对贸易政策波动的持续担 忧，以及全球对美资产需求下降，美元仍面临压力。安盛投资研究所重申了对美元的看跌前景，理由是 资本持续流入欧洲、亚洲和新兴市场。 在备受关注的讲话中，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，由于经济结构变化，长期利率可能维持高位。他指出， 当前环境中供应冲击更加频繁，可能导致通胀波动加剧。鲍威尔表示，尽管长期通胀预期仍锚定在美联 储2%的目标附近，但央行此前接近零利率的政策不太可能重现。 自2024年底以来，美联储一直将利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的区间 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current Sino - US game has entered a new stage of "talking while fighting", and the 90 - day policy window period is both an opportunity and a test. Domestic policies need to balance between stabilizing growth and preventing risks, and the uncertainty of the external environment tests market resilience [2]. - For the stock index futures, it is advisable to take a bullish stance, and for stock index options, a wide - straddle buying strategy can be used to capture the trend after the direction is determined. For treasury bonds, short - term fluctuations may increase as market risk appetite rises [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Chief Comment - China announced the suspension of export control measures on 28 US entities, and the US revoked 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, with 24% of the remaining 34% tariffs suspended for 90 days, marking a compromise in the two - year fentanyl tariff dispute, but the game continues [1]. - Domestic policy combinations are precisely targeted. The central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut released trillions of liquidity, and the 15 new policies on science and technology finance resonate. The policy focus is shifting from total stimulus to structural optimization [1]. - The Trump administration shows new trends in its "art of the deal", with a combination strategy of trade and fiscal policies [1]. 3.2. Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: SC night session dropped 0.59%. US April CPI data showed a 2.3% year - on - year increase, lower than expected. US crude inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. Attention should be paid to the space for the US to sanction Venezuela and Iran due to low oil prices [3]. - **Shipping**: EC opened high and closed high, with the 06 and 08 contracts hitting the daily limit. The TCI index showed increases in the US West and East routes. The Sino - US tariff trade friction has eased, which may bring forward the peak season for the US routes and potentially drive up the European routes [4]. - **Gold**: With the positive news of tariff relaxation realized, gold and silver prices declined. The Fed maintains a wait - and - see attitude, and the market focuses on trade negotiations and new economic data. Gold is in a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum [6]. 3.3. Daily Main News - **International News**: The US adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the tariffs and implementing 34% reciprocal tariffs, with 24% suspended for 90 days. It also adjusted the tariff on small Chinese parcels [7]. - **Domestic News**: By the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased 8.7% year - on - year, and M2 balance increased 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month [8]. - **Industry News**: OPEC+ oil - producing countries' production in April only increased by 25,000 barrels per day, far below the target. OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth [9]. 3.4. Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.10%, the European STOXX50 fell 0.32%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.91%, and the US dollar index rose 0.08%. ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.13%, London gold spot fell 2.24%, and London silver fell 2.10%. Other commodities also showed different price changes [11]. 3.5. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes showed mixed performance. The stock index rose, and the non - banking financial sector led the rise. With positive policies and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the stock market is expected to be bullish in the short - term. The valuation of major Chinese indexes is low, and long - term investment is cost - effective [12]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds generally fell. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond dropped to 1.672%. With the progress of Sino - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and the price of treasury bond futures declined [13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC night session decline was affected by US CPI data and inventory changes [15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night session rose. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased slightly, and the overall methanol inventory in coastal areas was at a low level. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short - term [16]. - **Rubber**: Rubber rebounded. The climate in domestic producing areas is good, and the supply is expected to increase. The total inventory in Qingdao is rising. The tariff policy is unfavorable to the raw material end, and the long - term trend is expected to be weak [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded strongly. The consumption of polyolefins has peaked, but due to cost fluctuations and the rebound of crude oil, they are expected to slow down the rebound speed after the short - term rebound [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures stopped falling and rebounded, and soda ash futures opened low and closed high. The inventory of both is under pressure, and the destocking process takes time. The market is positive about the Sino - US financial ministers' talks [19][20]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined as the positive news of tariff relaxation was realized. The Fed maintains a wait - and - see attitude, and the market focuses on trade negotiations and economic data [21]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate widely. The processing fee of concentrates is low, and domestic downstream demand is stable. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations and other factors [22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and the previous decline has digested some of the production growth expectations [23]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract rose. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is positive for the non - ferrous metals market. The demand for electrolytic aluminum is weak in the short - term, but the price is expected to be strong [24]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel main contract rose. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is tight, and the price is rising. The nickel market has both positive and negative factors, and the price is expected to be strong [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium prices are weak, and salt factories are reducing production. The supply in May is expected to decline, but the inventory is still accumulating. The price is pessimistic without large - scale production cuts [27]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal/Coke**: The black series is repaired by macro - positive factors. The cost of coking coal is declining, and the supply is increasing. The second - round price increase of coke failed, and a price cut is expected. The market is bearish on the rebound [28]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore is expected to change, but the demand is supported by the increase in iron water production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term [29]. - **Steel**: The supply of steel is increasing slightly, and the inventory is decreasing. The export of steel billets is strong, but the demand for building materials and plates is expected to decline seasonally. The market is facing a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [30]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. The USDA report was positive for soybeans, and the US biodiesel policy was positive for soybean oil. The MPOB report showed an increase in palm oil production and inventory, which is bearish for palm oil [32]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal was strong at night, and soybean meal opened high and closed low. The US soybean planting weather is good, and the USDA report is positive. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase [33]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The corn market is in a short - term shock. The supply in July is expected to be tight, but high - price raw materials suppress the profit of deep - processing enterprises. There is an expectation of imported corn reserve auctions [34]. - **Cotton**: Cotton maintained a strong trend. The new cotton planting in Xinjiang is basically completed, and the emergence rate is good. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term trend is strong [35]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping European Routes**: EC opened high and closed high, with the 06 and 08 contracts hitting the daily limit. The Sino - US tariff trade friction has eased, which may bring forward the peak season for the US routes and potentially drive up the European routes. The 06 contract is expected to have limited fluctuations, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong [36].

首席点评： 中美经贸关系竞合窗口期 2025 年 5 月 15 日，中方宣布自即日起暂停对 28 家美国实体的出口管制措施，同时美方同步撤销对中 国商品 91% 的关税，保留的 34% 关税中 24% 暂停加征 90 天。这场 " 关税休战 " 标志着双方在芬太尼 关税争端持续两年后首次达成竞合妥协，但商务部昨日 " 发现一起查处一起 " 的强硬表态，以及美方仍 保留 10% 战略关税的举措，揭示出博弈远未结束。 国内政策组合拳精准发力，央行降准释放万亿流动性与科技金融 15 条新政形成共振。 0.5 个百分点的 全面降准叠加汽车金融公司定向降准，既延续了适度宽松基调，又精准支持实体产业升级。值得关注的 是， 4 月企业新发贷款利率降至 3.2% 的历史低位，配合《促进科技金融发展意见》提出的全生命周期 金融服务体系，政策着力点正从总量刺激转向结构优化。 海外市场方面，特朗普政府的 " 交易艺术 " 展现新动向。在斩获卡塔尔 2000 亿美元大单的同时，美国 众议院推进数万亿美元减税计划，这种 " 左手贸易右手财政 " 的组合策略无不体现其交易的风格。 当前中美博弈已进入 " 边打边谈 " 的新阶段， 90 ...