关税担忧重燃！黄金多头或再度发力？订单流给出什么进场信号？阿汤哥正在实时分析，点击观看 相关链接 实时黄金订单流分析 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to the smallest increase in the US core PCE in over four years. Concerns over tariffs have resurfaced, and the market's risk appetite is cautious. [3][4][11] - In May, the monthly output of refined zinc was 549,400 tons, slightly lower than expected. However, the supply is expected to recover strongly in June, with an estimated increase to 590,200 tons. The demand side shows strong resilience during the off - season, but there is a lack of continuous new export orders. [4][11][14] - Overall, the strong current fundamentals persist, and the inventory inflection point has yet to arrive, causing the decline in zinc prices to be impeded. However, with the strong recovery of refined zinc supply in June and the expected seasonal decline in consumption, the supply - demand balance is tilting marginally, and a bearish view on zinc prices is maintained. [4][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The closing price of SHFE zinc on May 24 was 22,185 yuan/ton, and on June 2, it was 22,225 yuan/ton, with an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of LME zinc on May 24 was 2,712.5 dollars/ton, and on June 2, it was 2,693 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 19.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.18 to 8.25. [5] - The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1,763 tons, the inventory of LME decreased by 15,350 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. [5] 2. Market Review - The main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2507, rose rapidly on Monday evening last week due to rumors of an extended maintenance at a large smelter in Guangxi. However, the actual impact was lower than expected, and the price gave back its gains, ending at 22,225 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.05%. [6] - LME zinc's price center slightly moved up along the 5 - day moving average, but faced significant pressure from the 20 - day moving average, ending at 2,629.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.06%. It stabilized and rebounded weakly on June 2. [6] - In the spot market, the supply of goods remained tight, and traders held up prices. The spot premium increased slightly in the first half of the week but stabilized in the second half as downstream procurement declined. [7] - As of May 30, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 14,350 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 1,763 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons. [8] - In terms of macro - factors, the US Federal Court initially blocked Trump's tariff policy, but the decision was later suspended. The Fed is cautious about rate cuts, and the market still anticipates a rate cut in September. Trump plans to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The US has extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China until August 31. [9] - In China, the profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 3% year - on - year in April. The official manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. [10] 3. Industry News - As of the week ending May 30, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3,600 yuan/metal ton and 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/metal ton and no change for the latter. [13] - The refined zinc output in May was 549,400 tons, slightly lower than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. The output in June is expected to be 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.43%. [14] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including price trends of SHFE and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, and downstream enterprise operating rates. [16][17][24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is expected to consolidate after a significant depreciation, but concerns over tariffs could make it vulnerable again [1] Group 1: Dollar Vulnerability - Analysts from Erste Group highlight that the dollar remains weak and could face new pressures if tariff concerns resurface [1] - The potential for a trade war escalation could lead to a loss of investor confidence in U.S. assets, further impacting the dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Weak U.S. economic growth data is cited as a contributing factor to the dollar's fragility [1] - Criticism from Trump towards the Federal Reserve Chairman adds to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar [1]

金十数据5月6日讯，IG市场策略师Yeap Jun Rong表示："金价本周开始强劲上涨，投资者重返避险资 产，以对冲美国总统唐纳德·特朗普重新引发的关税担忧带来的投资组合波动。美联储任何温和的信号 都可能为黄金提供进一步的支撑，加强其整体上行势头。" 策略师：美联储任何温和的信号都可能为黄金提供进一步的支撑 ...

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to its lowest level in nearly five years, primarily due to increasing concerns over tariffs impacting the economic outlook [1] - The index fell by 7.9 points to 86.0, marking the lowest level since May 2020 [1] - This decline in consumer confidence has been observed for five consecutive months, indicating a persistent downward trend since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Economic Indicators - The anticipated GDP data for the U.S. is expected to show a significant slowdown in economic growth for the first quarter, attributed to businesses rushing to import goods to avoid rising costs from tariffs [1] - There is a potential for a substantial decrease in consumer spending, driven by high inflation and concerns regarding the economic impact of tariffs, leading some households to cut back on consumption to preserve savings [1]

金十数据4月29日讯，美国股市周二开盘走低，势将结束连续5天的上涨势头，芝加哥期权交易所波动率 指数徘徊在25附近。白宫有关（调整汽车）关税的言论吓坏了投资者，多家公司警告称经济不确定性上 升。Tigress Financial Partners首席投资官Ivan Feinseth表示，易的不确定性继续推动全球市场和经济的不 确定性，在情况明朗之前，美国的贸易仍将波动。库存被搁置，希望一两个贸易协议将为更多的协议创 造模板。汇丰以Nicole Inui为首的策略师将标准普尔500指数的年终目标从6700点下调至5600点，以反 映美国经济增长放缓和关税压力对企业盈利的影响。预计在关税动荡消退、美联储开始放松政策、以 及/或通胀压力未能积聚之前，市场将在衰退和滞胀之间摇摆。 随着关税担忧升温，美股将结束连续五天的涨势 ...

欧洲Stoxx 50指数期货跌4.5%，受关税担忧影响。 ...

Group 1 - Proactive is a leading provider of timely, multi-media news and investor relations management, focusing on delivering actionable business and finance news to a global audience [1][2] - The news team operates from key financial hubs including London, New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney, and Perth, specializing in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies and broader investment stories [2][3] - Proactive covers a wide range of sectors including biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] Group 2 - The company is committed to adopting advanced technologies to enhance content creation and workflow efficiency, leveraging decades of expertise within its team [4] - Proactive utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all content is edited and authored by humans to maintain quality and best practices [5]

我们总是对盈利零容忍，而对亏损却很放纵。一小赚就跑，一亏就死扛，总是在"入场亏损 - 持有死扛 - 解套就跑"的小赚大亏中循环着，能扛到解套还算幸运，很多人都是在扛不住大亏时，悔恨离场，似乎 天生是来给市场送钱的，而不是来赚钱的。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250205— DeepSeek版：TL赠与我的（+关税担忧+PMI数据低于预期+午后资金面转松+股市下 跌=中下)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展6970亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有14135亿元逆回购到期。净回笼7165亿元。 上午资金面均衡略偏紧，午后转松，资金价格偏贵。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 02. 05) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1. ...