劳动生产率

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盛松成:消费如何促进投资并形成良性循环 | 宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-05-20 10:30
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of increasing consumption rates in China to promote stable economic growth and enhance investment efficiency, highlighting the interdependent relationship between consumption and investment [1][10]. Group 1: Relationship Between Consumption and Investment - The traditional "three drivers" model (consumption, investment, net exports) often leads to a fragmented view of the relationship between consumption and investment, which are actually interrelated and should not be viewed in isolation [3][5]. - In the short term, consumption and investment may appear to compete for resources, but over the long term, investment can enhance future consumption by creating jobs and increasing income [6][10]. - The article argues that consumption is the ultimate goal of economic activity, as it relates to national welfare and the pursuit of a better life, thus reinforcing the need for a balanced approach to consumption and investment [5][10]. Group 2: Causal Relationship and Economic Models - The article discusses how investment can stimulate consumption by creating jobs and increasing disposable income, while strong consumer demand can drive investment decisions by businesses [6][21]. - It highlights that the relationship between consumption and investment can change over time, particularly in the context of China's economic transition from a planned to a market economy [10][22]. - Economic growth models, such as the Solow model, emphasize the importance of both consumption and investment, suggesting that an optimal balance is necessary for sustainable growth [12][13]. Group 3: Comparison of Consumption and Investment in China and the U.S. - Data from the World Bank indicates that China's capital formation as a percentage of GDP has fluctuated significantly, peaking at 46.7% in 2011, while U.S. capital formation has remained relatively stable between 20% and 26% [14][16]. - The article notes that during economic downturns, U.S. consumption tends to increase as investment declines, contrasting with China's rising capital formation during similar periods [16][17]. - The current consumption rate in China is still below the optimal level, indicating a need for a shift in the economic growth model from investment-driven to consumption-driven [17][22]. Group 4: Promoting a Positive Cycle Between Consumption and Investment - The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference report suggests two methods to promote a virtuous cycle between consumption and investment: stimulating potential consumption and expanding effective investment [19][20]. - The article asserts that consumption is crucial for economic stability, as it tends to be more stable than investment, especially during periods of economic uncertainty [21][22]. - It concludes that fostering a positive interaction between consumption and investment is essential for both short-term economic growth and long-term sustainable development [22].
中金:走出金融周期底部的政策与资产含义
中金点睛· 2025-05-13 23:39
Core Viewpoint - The current economic adjustment in China is characterized by a weak inflation cycle under a declining financial cycle, with productivity being a crucial dimension for analysis [1][8]. Financial Cycle - The financial cycle is defined as the long-term interaction between credit and housing prices, with a downward trend leading to credit contraction and insufficient domestic demand [9]. - During the financial cycle's expansion, productivity did not improve synchronously, indicating inefficient allocation of credit resources [12][19]. - The current financial cycle in China has seen a concentration of funds and labor in low-efficiency sectors, particularly real estate, leading to a decline in overall productivity growth [12][22]. Policy Implications - Historical experience suggests that during a declining financial cycle, both monetary and fiscal policies should be coordinated to stimulate the economy [2][33]. - The intensity of monetary and fiscal policies tends to increase as the negative impact of the cycle deepens, with a typical lag of 3 to 4 years before economic stabilization occurs [2][40]. - Current monetary policy efforts in China are relatively weaker compared to international averages, indicating room for further action [34][40]. Asset Implications - Accelerated policy efforts are expected to stabilize and potentially increase asset prices, with historical data showing that housing and stock prices tend to recover after initial declines [4][55]. - In the context of China's current economic environment, sectors such as finance, real estate, and technology are likely to perform better as policies are implemented [63]. - The ongoing global rebalancing of funds and a weak dollar environment may favor the revaluation of Chinese assets, particularly in light of domestic policy support [5][70]. Economic Development Trends - China's GDP growth from 2020 to 2025 is projected to significantly outperform international averages, attributed to factors such as manufacturing scale effects and pre-existing monetary and fiscal policy support [22][23]. - Price levels in China have shown similarities to international low-price differentiation scenarios, with a notable demand gap impacting inflation [23][24]. - The housing market in China has experienced a cumulative decline of 14% since the peak, which is more severe than the international average [24][26]. Conclusion - The analysis of the current economic cycle in China through the lenses of financial cycles, productivity, and price levels provides valuable insights into potential policy and asset performance [1][22].
美国遭遇劳动生产率三年首降 用人成本飙升敲响通胀警钟
智通财经网· 2025-05-08 13:53
Group 1 - The U.S. labor productivity declined for the first time in nearly three years in Q1, primarily due to a decrease in economic output, interrupting the previous trend of efficiency improvements that helped alleviate employment cost inflation [1][4] - Non-farm employee output per hour annualized fell by 0.8%, with the previous value revised to a growth of 1.7% [1] - The decline in labor productivity led to a surge in unit labor costs, which increased by 5.7% in Q1, marking the largest rise in a year [1][4] Group 2 - The drop in productivity was mainly attributed to a 0.3% decrease in corporate output, as indicated by recent GDP data suggesting a contraction due to trade factors, despite an increase in hours worked [4] - Short-term productivity growth may remain under pressure as companies delay investment plans while awaiting clearer U.S. trade and tax policies [4] - The Trump administration is attempting to stimulate domestic manufacturing and investment through tariffs, while post-pandemic productivity gains and an influx of immigrants are seen as key drivers for economic growth and inflation control [4] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring productivity data, as improvements driven by technological upgrades, including artificial intelligence, could help curb wage inflation [4] - Labor costs represent the largest expense for most companies, prompting them to seek new technologies and equipment upgrades to enhance efficiency and mitigate inflationary pressures from wage increases [4] - Despite high borrowing costs, ongoing inflation, and economic uncertainty leading some companies to invest selectively, many are still focused on improving efficiency [4] Group 4 - Manufacturing productivity surged by an annualized 4.5%, the largest increase in nearly four years, with factory output rising by 5.1%, likely reflecting increased production of commercial aircraft [4] - Another report indicated that initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 228,000, suggesting limited layoffs [4]
企业产出下滑拖累,美国劳动生产率自2022年以来首次下降
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-08 13:41
Group 1 - U.S. labor productivity has declined for the first time since 2022, with a 0.8% annualized decrease in Q1, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.7% decline [1] - Unit labor costs surged by 5.7% in Q1, marking the largest increase in a year, exceeding the anticipated 5.1% rise [1] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring these productivity figures, as improvements in productivity are crucial for controlling wage inflation [1] Group 2 - The decline in productivity is primarily attributed to a 0.3% decrease in business output, which was also reflected in the Q1 GDP data showing an annualized initial value of -0.3% [2] - Labor costs have increased by 1.3% year-over-year, with hourly wages rising to 4.8%, a 2.7% increase compared to the previous year [3] - Despite overall negative data, the manufacturing sector showed strong performance, with productivity increasing by 4.5% in Q1, the highest in nearly four years [3]