Service Trade Deficit - China's service trade deficit reached approximately $1646 billion in 2024, offsetting about 17% of the merchandise trade surplus[3] - Travel services accounted for the largest portion of the service trade deficit, with a deficit of $1817 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 68%[3] - The United States is the largest source of China's service trade deficit, contributing approximately $26.57 billion, which is about 15.6% of the total deficit[3] Policy Adjustments - The past year has seen three main adjustments in service trade policy: increasing domestic service supply, promoting inbound consumption, and implementing export restrictions on certain technologies[2] - A negative list for cross-border service trade was introduced in March 2024, marking a significant step towards institutional openness in sectors like finance, transportation, and culture[4] - The government has expanded visa-free entry policies, allowing citizens from 38 countries to enter China without a visa, with the stay duration extended from 15 to 30 days[5] Inbound Consumption Initiatives - The number of duty-free shops in major cities increased from 6 to 27, enhancing the supply of duty-free shopping options[31] - The "immediate refund" policy for outbound tax refunds was rolled out nationwide, allowing travelers to receive tax refunds at the point of purchase[31] - Inbound tourism saw a recovery, with 131.9 million foreign visitors in 2023, a 61% increase year-on-year, although recovery rates varied significantly by region[26] Export Restrictions - Export restrictions were implemented to protect key technologies, particularly in aerospace and critical mineral processing[35] - The number of American films imported into China is set to be reduced, with 33 American films expected to be imported in 2024, accounting for about 35% of total film imports[35]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed trend, with some sectors experiencing growth while others face declines, indicating potential investment opportunities and risks in various industries. Group 1: Economic Activity - The transportation department reported a 9.7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow on April 4, compared to a 6% increase during the Spring Festival [2] - Cement shipment rates have risen for seven consecutive weeks, reaching 42.7% as of March 28, up 4.5 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The land premium rate in 100 cities increased to 23.12% for the week ending March 30, compared to 14.55% in March and 10.42% in February [2] Group 2: Declining Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index fell below 4% for the first time since the Spring Festival, registering at 3.84% as of March 30, down 1.34% from March 23 [3][7] - Container throughput at monitored ports decreased by 0.7% week-on-week as of March 30, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.9%, lower than the 10.3% increase in January-February [3][23] - Major commodities saw significant price drops due to tariff impacts, with COMEX gold down 1.8%, LME copper down 9.5%, and both WTI and Brent crude oil down over 10% [3][29] Group 3: Debt Issuance and Interest Rates - As of April 4, 23 provinces disclosed plans for local bond issuance, with new special bond issuance plans totaling 263.5 billion out of 856.4 billion [4][33] - Interest rates have declined due to tariff impacts, with DR001 at 1.6273%, DR007 at 1.6981%, and R007 at 1.7428%, all showing significant decreases from March 28 [4][35] - The yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were reported at 1.4829%, 1.5616%, and 1.7180%, respectively, with declines noted since March 28 [4][35] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - During the Qingming Festival, cross-regional travel increased by 9.7%, with rail, water, civil aviation, and road transport all showing growth [12] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles fell to a 3% year-on-year increase as of March 31, down from 8% previously [13] - Real estate sales remain weak, with a 29.8% year-on-year decline in residential sales in 67 cities during the first three days of April [13] Group 5: Production and Trade - The cement shipment rate has improved, while the asphalt production rate has shown a downward trend, indicating mixed signals in the construction sector [17] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) showed a year-on-year decline of 7.2% as of April 4, reflecting challenges in the shipping industry [22] - Domestic container shipping rates have increased, with the Shanghai export container freight index rising by 2.8% [23]

Economic Indicators - The WEI index has fallen below 4%, reaching 3.84% as of March 30, 2025, down 1.34% from the previous week[7] - Cement shipment rates have increased for seven consecutive weeks, reaching 42.7% as of March 28, 2025, up 4.5 percentage points from the previous week[21] - The land premium rate for 100 cities rose to 23.12% for the week ending March 30, 2025, compared to 14.55% in March and 10.42% in February[13] Consumer Behavior - During the Qingming holiday, cross-regional travel increased by 9.7% year-on-year, with rail, water, civil aviation, and road transport growing by 8.4%, 24.4%, 8.6%, and 9.7% respectively[12] - Retail sales of passenger cars fell by 2% for the week ending March 31, 2025, down 30 percentage points from 28% in late February[8] - The movie box office revenue for the week ending March 30, 2025, was 210 million yuan, a 62% year-on-year decline, down 80 percentage points from early March[8] Trade and Production - Container throughput at monitored ports decreased by 0.7% week-on-week as of March 30, 2025, compared to a previous increase of 5.3%[25] - The BDI index showed a year-on-year increase of 8.9% over the last four weeks, although it was lower than the 10.3% recorded in January-February[25] - The operating rate of asphalt plants has been declining, with a rate of 25.7% as of April 2, 2025, down from 26.7%[21] Commodity Prices - Overseas commodity prices have significantly dropped, with COMEX gold down 1.8%, LME copper down 9.5%, and Brent crude oil down 10.9%[30] - Domestic commodity prices showed slight increases, with the domestic BPI rising by 0.1% while the RJ/CRB index fell by 6%[30] Debt Issuance - As of April 4, 2025, 23 provinces have disclosed local bond issuance plans for Q2 2025, with a total of 2,635 billion yuan in new special bond issuance planned[37]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 2 、商品房住宅销售仍偏弱。 我们统计的 67 个城市， 3 月前四周，地产成交较去年 -6.8% 。 2 月全月同比 +3% 。 3 、贸易：国内高频量价齐跌。量， 3 月 16 日当周，我国监测港口集装箱吞吐量环比 -3.3% ，前值 +9.6% ；四周累计同比为 16.5% ，高于 1-2 月八周累计同比 10.3% 。 价 ， 3 月 21 日，上海出口集装箱运价综合 指数环比 -2.0% ，前值 -8.1% 。欧洲、北美、南美航线运价均回落。 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数有所回升： 截至 3 月 23 日，该指数为 5.16% ，较 3 月 16 日上行 0.76% 。同 9 月 底相比，同比增速仍然回升的分项涉及：基建（沥青开工率）、服务消费（电影票房）、耐用品消费（乘 用车批零）、地产（商品房成交面积）、工业生产（钢厂线材产量、秦皇岛煤炭吞吐量）。 同 9 月底相 比，同比增速持平甚至回落的分项涉及 ：外需（ BDI ）、工业生产（ PT ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward pressures on various sectors, including external demand, land prices, and production activities, while also noting the overall economic activity index's fluctuations. Group 1: Economic Trends - External demand shows signs of recovery, with the average manufacturing PMI of major economies returning to the growth line at 50.0% in February, up from 49.6% in January, marking the second consecutive month of increase [2][16]. - Land premium rates have rebounded, with an average of 9.02% from January 27 to February 23, increasing to 18.39% in the most recent week, compared to 9.52% in January and 3.59% in December of the previous year [2][13]. Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has declined to 4.24% as of February 23, down from 5.06% on February 16, but still higher than the low of 2.50% recorded on September 29, 2024 [3][9]. - The index's decline indicates potential policy shifts, as historically, a drop below 3.0% has preceded significant policy changes [11]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The transportation sector shows weakness, with average daily subway ridership in 27 cities increasing by only 2.7% year-on-year in February, while flight numbers decreased by 0.9% compared to the previous year [4][12]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have increased by 18% year-on-year as of February 23, recovering from a decline of 12.1% in January [12]. Group 4: Production and Construction - Construction site resumption rates are below last year's levels, with a national average of 64.6% as of February 27, down 12.64 percentage points year-on-year [5][14]. - The operating rate of asphalt facilities has slightly improved, reaching 28.5%, while cement dispatch rates are lower than last year [14]. Group 5: Price Trends - Commodity prices are generally declining, with the BPI down 0.2% and the CRB index down 1.4% this week. Key commodities like gold, copper, and oil have also seen price drops [4][18]. - Agricultural products show mixed trends, with pork prices down 2.8% and egg prices rebounding by 1.9% [19]. Group 6: Bond Issuance and Interest Rates - A total of 603.6 billion yuan in new special bonds were issued in January and February, significantly higher than the 329.2 billion yuan issued in the same period last year [6][24]. - Short-term interest rates have decreased, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.4597%, 1.6041%, and 1.7152%, respectively [6][26].