Core Viewpoint - New consumption concept stocks are experiencing a broad increase, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential growth in the sector [1][2] Stock Performance - Notable stock increases include: - Cha Bai Dao (02555) up by 5.76% - Guo Quan (02517) up by 4.50% - Lao Pu Gold (06181) up by 4.14% - Miniso (09896) up by 3.00% - Hu Shang A Yi (02589) up by 2.84% - Juzi Biotechnology (02367) up by 2.97% [1][2] Industry Outlook - According to Huatai Securities, the differentiation between new and old consumption will continue into 2025, driven by changes in "people, goods, and venues" and technological advancements [1][2] - The report anticipates that consumer policies will stimulate supply and demand potential, leading to a steady recovery in domestic demand and continued industry differentiation in 2026 [1][2] Investment Focus - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes: 1. Rise of domestic brands: Attention on潮玩 (trendy toys), beauty and personal care, and gold jewelry brands competing in both domestic and international markets [1][2] 2. Technology-enabled consumption: Emphasis on the rapid increase in smart product penetration rates due to technological and product innovation [1][2] 3. Emotional consumption: Monitoring growth potential in service consumption, ready-to-drink beverages, pets, and new tobacco products [1][2] 4. Undervalued high-dividend blue-chip leaders: Focus on opportunities for marginal recovery while balancing risk and reward [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Hong Kong stock market's new consumption concept stocks have mostly rebounded, with significant gains observed in several companies [1][5] - Notable stock performances include Lao Pu Gold, Cha Bai Dao, and Mao Ge Ping, each rising over 4%, while Miniso increased by over 3%, and Mi Xue Group, Blu-ray, and Juzi Bio rose over 2% [1][5] Group 2 - Huatai Securities released a research report projecting that consumer promotion policies will continue to stimulate supply and demand potential, leading to a steady recovery in domestic demand [3][7] - The report highlights four main investment themes: 1) The rise of domestic brands focusing on trendy toys, beauty care, and gold jewelry, competing in both domestic and international markets; 2) Technology consumption empowered by AI, emphasizing the rapid increase in smart product penetration due to technological and product innovation; 3) Emotional consumption, with ongoing supply and demand changes, focusing on service consumption, ready-to-drink beverages, pets, and new tobacco products; 4) Undervalued high-dividend blue-chip leaders, which offer a balanced approach and opportunities for marginal recovery [3][7]

来源：上市之家 蜜雪集团的回调则反映出茶饮行业的竞争加剧。尽管公司尚未披露最新业绩，但市场担忧原材料成本上 涨及新店扩张带来的盈利压力。华泰证券在12月4日研报中指出，消费板块正呈现"新旧分化"，现制饮 品等赛道需警惕估值泡沫。 从市场情绪看，资金撤离迹象明显。Wind数据显示，12月8日泡泡玛特沽空金额达10.92亿港元，较前一 日激增210.58%，沽空比率升至19.23%。而整个港股消费指数近一个月累计下跌12%，创2023年以来最 大单月跌幅。 长期来看，多数券商建议聚焦国货崛起、AI赋能等四大主线，认为优质新消费龙头仍具结构性机会。 但在当前市场环境下，投资者对"消费三姐妹"的信心重建，恐怕还需要更多业绩确定性来支撑。 港股消费板块正经历寒冬。12月9日，被市场称为"消费三姐妹"的泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团延续 跌势，当日分别大跌5.04%、2.93%、0.45%。叠加前一日8.49%、6.72%、3.02%的跌幅，三家公司两日 市值合计蒸发超800亿港元。 泡泡玛特距离其历史最高点339.8港元已下跌44%，老铺黄金从1097.48港元的高点回落44.1%，蜜雪集团 也从618.5港元的峰值下滑 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2] Core Insights - The pet consumption market shows strong resilience, with a significant growth potential and structural changes observed during the Double Eleven shopping festival, where total sales reached 16,191 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.30%, with pet food sales at 9.4 billion yuan [3][17] - The report identifies three key trends: the rise of domestic brands, diversification and increased experience demand in pet consumption, and a shift towards health and precision in pet care [4][6][35] Summary by Sections Pet Consumption Performance - The Double Eleven shopping festival demonstrated robust performance in pet consumption, with a sales explosion coefficient of 201% for pet categories, indicating strong consumer resilience and growth potential [3][17] - Tmall remains the primary channel for pet consumption, holding a 64% market share, followed by JD and Douyin at 21% and 14% respectively [17] Trends in Pet Consumption - The trend of domestic brands rising continues, with only three overseas brands making it to the Tmall pet brand top 10 list during Double Eleven [4][22] - Pet consumption is diversifying, with a decrease in the Engel coefficient, indicating a shift from basic needs to more varied and premium offerings [4][22] - Health and precision in pet care are leading industry growth, with new processing techniques and functional foods gaining popularity [4][33] E-commerce Channel Preferences - Different e-commerce platforms exhibit varying consumer preferences, with Tmall showing strong competition in pet food, while Douyin focuses on content marketing and emotional consumption [5][41] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in pet food, with brands like Toptrees and Xucuihua showing significant growth [5][35] Export Market Challenges - The export of pet food faces pressure, with a decline in both quantity and value, indicating challenges in the international market due to tariffs and trade disputes [5][41] Long-term Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the long-term development of the pet food industry, recommending attention to companies like Zhongchong Co., Ltd. and Petty Co., Ltd. as well as other leading pet food brands [6][44]

Industry Overview - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown stronger performance than the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 4.5% from November 14 to November 21, 2025, outperforming the Shenwan A Index by 1.9 percentage points [3][4] - The cosmetics sales are expected to gradually decline as the peak shopping season ends, with domestic brands actively preparing new products for the off-season [9][10] Key Insights - The 2026 cosmetics and medical beauty strategy report indicates that brand growth is crucial, with upstream and downstream margins improving. Domestic brands are expected to grow against the trend during the industry consolidation phase [10][11] - The National Medical Products Administration has introduced 24 reform measures aimed at enhancing the regulatory framework for cosmetics, promoting high-quality industry development [26] Company Focus - Qingmu Technology (301110) is highlighted as a full-domain operation service expert, leveraging data and technology to drive growth. The company has established a strong brand matrix across various sectors, including fashion and beauty [15][16] - Investment recommendations include brands with strong channel and brand matrices such as Maogeping, Shangmei Co., and Proya, as well as companies in the medical beauty sector like Aimeike [12][14] Market Trends - The retail sales of cosmetics in October 2025 grew by 9.6%, driven by the Double 11 shopping festival, with a total retail sales of 381.3 billion yuan for cosmetics in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting a 4.6% year-on-year increase [21][23] - The domestic market for skincare products is expected to see further growth, with domestic brands gaining market share due to their competitive pricing and localized strategies [31][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the beauty and personal care industry, highlighting robust demand and the continued rise of domestic brands [2]. Core Insights - The beauty care industry is experiencing a stable demand phase, with domestic leading brands expected to grow during the industry consolidation period [3]. - The cosmetics sector showed resilience during the off-peak season, with retail sales reaching 98.2 billion yuan from July to September, reflecting a single-digit year-on-year growth and an acceleration compared to the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of domestic brands during the Double 11 shopping festival, with Proya ranking first in Tmall's beauty sales [2][11]. Summary by Sections Cosmetics Sector Performance - The cosmetics sector's key A-share companies reported an average revenue growth rate of around 3% in Q3 2025, with overall improvement in net profit [2]. - Proya's cumulative revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 7.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.89%, while its Q3 revenue was 1.736 billion yuan, down 11.63% year-on-year [16]. - Other notable performances include: - Ruifucheng: Q1-Q3 revenue of 2.138 billion yuan, up 85.3% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue of 819 million yuan, up 123.4% year-on-year [16]. - Marubi: Q1-Q3 revenue of 2.45 billion yuan, up 25.5% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue of 686 million yuan, up 14.28% year-on-year [16]. Medical Aesthetics Sector Performance - The medical aesthetics sector showed slight fatigue but experienced marginal improvements in Q3 2025 [2]. - Notable performances include: - Aimeike: Q1-Q3 revenue of 1.865 billion yuan, down 21.49% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue of 566 million yuan, down 21.27% year-on-year [2]. - Longzi: Q1-Q3 revenue of 4.328 billion yuan, up 0.9% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue of 1.539 billion yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with a well-established channel and brand matrix, such as Maogeping, Shangmei, and Shanghai Jahwa, which are expected to see high GMV growth [2][20]. - Companies anticipated to show marginal improvements in performance include Proya, Marubi, and Ruifucheng [2]. - In the medical aesthetics sector, the report highlights Aimeike as a key recommendation, with Longzi suggested for further observation [2]. Market Trends - The domestic market share of leading brands is increasing, with the top ten domestic brands capturing 16.6% of the market share in skincare, up from 11.8% in 2023 [4]. - The report notes that the cosmetics retail sales in October 2025 grew by 9.6% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand driven by promotional events [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the beauty and personal care industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for key players in the sector [2]. Core Insights - The demand side of the beauty industry is showing robust growth, with domestic brands gaining market share and performing well during promotional events like Double 11 [3][4]. - The overall performance of the cosmetics sector is mixed, with some companies showing strong growth while others face challenges [3][4]. - The report highlights the increasing market share of domestic brands, with significant improvements in their competitive positioning against international brands [5][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The beauty industry is entering a stable growth phase, with domestic leading brands expected to grow during the industry consolidation period [4]. - The retail sales of cosmetics reached 98.2 billion yuan from July to September, showing a high single-digit year-on-year growth, and continued strong performance in October with a growth rate exceeding 9% [3][4]. Company Performance - **Polaire**: For the first three quarters of 2025, Polaire reported a cumulative revenue of 7.098 billion yuan (up 1.89% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1.026 billion yuan (up 2.65%) [18]. - **Ru Yuchen**: The company achieved a revenue of 2.138 billion yuan (up 85.3% year-on-year) in the first three quarters, with a net profit of 105 million yuan (up 81.6%) [18]. - **Marubi**: Reported a revenue of 2.45 billion yuan (up 25.5% year-on-year) for the first three quarters, with a net profit of 240 million yuan (up 2.1%) [19]. - **Shanghai Jahwa**: Revenue for the first three quarters was 4.961 billion yuan (up 10.8% year-on-year), with a net profit of 405 million yuan (up 149%) [20]. Market Trends - The report notes that domestic brands are increasingly capturing market share, with the top ten domestic brands holding five spots and a combined market share of 16.6%, up from 11.8% the previous year [5]. - The cosmetic sector's gross margin continues to improve, although rising sales expenses are impacting net profit margins [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong channel and brand matrices, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei, and those expected to see marginal improvements in performance, like Polaire and Marubi [3][4]. - In the medical beauty sector, companies with high barriers to entry and strong profitability, such as Aimeike, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][4].

不少外贸工厂都面临过订单缩减，濒临生存危机的情况。一心所在的这家老牌帽子工厂也是。 工厂里的师傅们有多年制作帽子的经验，为了留住他们的手艺，老板曾经自掏腰包，给师傅们发工资， 支撑工厂运营。 六年前，工厂在淘宝开了一家名为"研帽社"的小店。因为坚持"每个人的头都不一样大，都应该戴上合 适的帽子"，他们为一款帽子分出五个尺码，提供"半定制"服务，每种尺码都有货。 一心并非科班出身的帽子设计师，她后来加入这个初创团队。为了真正搞懂帽子，她几乎有两三年时间 都"泡"在车间里，和打版师傅一起研究面料、调整版型，从零开始摸索。 这群"不愿将就"的人，靠着"分码"笨功夫，开辟了一条生路，一年卖出上万顶帽子，几年下来约卖出10 多万顶帽子，被不少人称为"大头救星""小头福音"，小店还成为秋冬保暖配饰回头客榜TOP1。 "亏到不行的烂摊子" "研帽社"的制作车间里，缝纫机的嗡鸣声连成一片。十多位老师傅正俯身在各自的机台前，制作帽子， 讨论着帽檐的弧度、帽顶的深度，时而夹杂着对线和布料的争论，带着手艺人特有的较真。 六年前，这些师傅们还在为手艺无处安放而焦虑。 这家工厂的前身是一家老牌国营厂。上世纪90年代末，国企改制的浪潮席 ...

Core Insights - Amorepacific's high-end skincare brand AP嫒彬 is undergoing operational adjustments in the Chinese market, including the closure of its online and offline stores due to unsatisfactory market performance [4][7] - The brand's entry into the Chinese market was only a year ago, and it has struggled to establish a strong presence, with low fan engagement and limited product offerings [4][6] - The shift in consumer preferences towards domestic brands has significantly altered the competitive landscape, with local brands gaining traction over international ones [5][6] Company Strategy - Amorepacific is actively optimizing its brand portfolio to better serve Chinese consumers, indicating a strategic pivot towards more cost-effective and functional skincare products [4][6] - The introduction of the Aestura瑷丝特兰 brand, priced between 100 to 200 yuan, aims to capture market share by addressing the growing demand for safety and efficacy in skincare products [5][6] - The company is focusing on digital transformation and AI-driven strategies to enhance consumer engagement and adapt to market demands [8] Market Dynamics - The Chinese beauty market is projected to grow significantly, with skincare market size expected to exceed 400 billion yuan and color cosmetics reaching 120 billion yuan by 2025 [5] - A notable shift in consumer behavior has been observed, with a growing preference for domestic brands driven by cultural confidence and value rationality [5][6] - Amorepacific's recent performance shows a recovery, with a reported 8.5% revenue growth in the Greater China region, highlighting the resilience of the Chinese consumer market [8]

Core Insights - The total retail sales in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 4.6 trillion yuan, slightly above the Wind consensus expectation of 2.7% [1] - The growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage points compared to September, primarily due to a deceleration in the sales of automobiles and home appliances [1] - Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.0% [1] Group 1 - The holiday economic effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, along with the early promotion period for "Double Eleven," contributed positively to sales [1] - Basic living goods showed a favorable sales trend, and the new high in gold prices boosted investment demand significantly [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the "14th Five-Year Plan" continues to emphasize expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [1] - In the context of a moderate recovery in domestic demand, there may be a continued divergence in sales performance across different categories [1] - Structural opportunities are suggested to be focused on emotional consumption, the rise of domestic brands, AI+ consumption, and the silver economy [1]