价格方面，"反内卷"相关品类价格经历第三季度的脉冲后回落，但中枢高于此前；而以工业生产为代表 的数量指标环比趋缓，"以价换量"似转向"以量换价"。受天气扰动蔬菜价格超季节抬升，叠加低基数， CPI同比有望短期回升。但明年年初猪、油共振趋缓或延续，物价将再度回落。 政策方面，历年经济"开门红"大都对应着上年末财政支出的先行。近期财政有所蓄力，叠加地方土地出 让收入继续承压，预示明年年初经济增速温和。补贴政策如何在服务领域促进消费仍有待探索。信贷需 求还在历史低位徘徊。国债买卖等流动性管理更趋多元化，但利率工具仍较审慎。 来源：伍戈经济笔记 【预见经济：拾贰月】 秋收冬藏。 海外方面，AI科技是否"泡沫化"的争议不断，但其投资逐步向上游电力、下游应用的渗透仍在进行，明 年美、欧、日、韩等财政预算均加大相关投入。美联储降息周期延续，其通胀预期却在历史高位。美元 短期弱势之下人民币升值预期犹存。高频数据预示，我国出口或呈现短期回升态势。 内需方面，预期房价下降的居民占比升至高位，近期房企事件或表征地产风险的应对已进入新阶段。严 控隐债之下，化债及清偿账款仍在持续，也对应着基建投资延续下半年以来的弱势。源于征管规范化， ...

Group 1 - China's economy is showing resilience and vitality as it approaches the end of 2025, with a focus on navigating challenges and opportunities in 2026 during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - Experts believe that China is at a critical stage of structural adjustment, where breaking through reforms will lead to both quantitative and qualitative economic growth [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a shift in China's economic growth from being primarily driven by investment and exports to being driven by innovation and consumption [3] Group 2 - Consumption is crucial for China's economy, and there is a need to actively implement a "strong consumption country" strategy [3] - Increasing the pension levels for low-income groups is seen as a key breakthrough for expanding consumption, with a strong necessity for transferring state-owned capital to support pension funds [3] - The proposal includes reallocating state-owned capital to social security funds and capital markets to create a comprehensive pension system that meets basic living needs and reduces urban-rural disparities [3] Group 3 - China has the potential to become the world's largest consumer market, surpassing the United States, and should implement a new strategy for balanced imports and exports [4] - There is a call to expand the offshore RMB financial product ecosystem to enhance the liquidity and usability of the RMB, promoting its internationalization [4] - As the RMB appreciates, domestic consumers will be able to purchase more and better imported goods and services, thereby enhancing the scale and quality of consumption [4] Group 4 - Deepening reform and opening up is seen as a crucial path for economic breakthroughs, with macro policy optimization being an important support [5] - The focus for 2026 is on establishing a solid foundation for national policies as it will be a year where major global economies compete economically [5] Group 5 - Reform and innovation are identified as fundamental drivers of China's economic development over the past 40 years and are essential for achieving the "Chinese Dream" by 2050 [6] - Addressing issues of urban-rural integration and technological innovation is deemed critical, with a need for better integration of scientific and industrial innovation [6][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period should focus on resolving challenges related to insufficient investment in basic innovation and the transformation of technological advancements [7] Group 6 - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, which is considered a significant achievement in an international context [8] - Infrastructure investment is highlighted as a key method for stabilizing growth, with a strong emphasis on large-scale infrastructure projects to support economic stability [8] - Consumer spending is viewed as a slow variable, indicating that a significant rebound in consumption may be challenging in the near term [8]

专题：财经中国2025年会 12月7日，"和讯财经中国2025年会"在北京举行，主题为"寻找中国经济破局之路"。上海财经大学滴水 湖高级金融学院院长、北京大学客座教授姚洋出席并演讲。 姚洋谈到，中国经济面临的主要问题还是短期需求不足。在他看来，短期的问题要用短期的手段来解 决。最直接的就是搞基建投资。但是为什么今年的基建投资变成负增长了？他认为，很重要的原因是地 方政府实在是干不动了，也没有意愿去干了。 对此，他提出了两个政策发力方向。第一，中央政府要拿出真金白银拍在桌上，实实在在解决地方政府 没钱的问题。"地方政府没钱，你还让他借钱去投资，这是不可能做到的事情。今年中央政府通过发行 4.4万亿专项债等方式，为地方提供了有力支持，这是一个重要突破，但是这个力度不够。" 第二，姚洋直言，房地产是个非常大的拖累。"我觉得关于房地产的问题我们应该学学股市，股市为什 么去年9月底它开始涨而且不掉下去，因为国家队进去把钱拍在桌上，老百姓看明白了——中央政府对 股市有信心。房市也一样，中央政府能不能拿出钱来拍在桌上，而不是让地方政府去收购土地、收购存 量房。如果中央政府真是下决心做这个事，我觉得房地产稳住是有可能的。" ...

（原标题：巴西基建投资金额将创纪录，但增速有所放缓） 巴西媒体11月27日综合报道，巴西基础设施和基础工业协会（Abdib）预测，2025年巴西基建投资 金额将创纪录达到2800亿雷亚尔。今年计划投资金额中，84%来自私营部门，其余来自公共部门。按领 域看，卫生领域投资表现亮眼，同比增长35.7%，运输和物流领域同比增长12.7%。根据Abdib分析，在 经历2023年、2024年的迅猛增长（增长率分别为19.5%、15.3%）后，2025年基建投资有所放缓，预计 增长率为3%。 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is expected to remain around 5%[4] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is projected to be 53.5% in 2025, up from 44.5% in 2024[26] - The anticipated growth rate of social retail sales is around 4% in 2026, with final consumption expenditure growth expected to exceed 5%[51] Export Performance - China's export share is projected to continue its upward trend, with an expected growth rate of 4-5% in 2026[21] - As of July 2025, China's export share reached 15.1%, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating strong global competitiveness[14] Investment Stability - Real estate investment is expected to stabilize, with a projected decline of around 10.2% in 2026, a significant improvement from previous years[55] - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to rebound significantly in 2026, supported by new policy tools and long-term special bonds[74] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise to around 0.6% in 2026, driven by food prices, while PPI is projected to recover from a decline of -2.8% in 2025[95][116] - The core CPI is expected to maintain a higher level of around 0.8-1% in 2026, reflecting improved consumer confidence and spending[110] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The narrow deficit ratio is projected to increase to 4-4.3% in 2026, with a special bond issuance of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan[127] - New local special bonds are expected to be in the range of 5-5.5 trillion yuan, marking an increase from 2025[128]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the construction industry [6]. Core Insights - The construction industry showed a month-on-month improvement in November, with the business activity index rising to 49.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity expectation index reached 57.9%, up by 1.9 percentage points [1][17]. - The government has allocated 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan in special bonds for hard investment projects in the past two years, supporting significant infrastructure developments [2][18]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, with infrastructure investment expected to play a stabilizing role in economic operations [3][19]. - The report suggests focusing on high-prosperity sectors such as overseas construction, western region development, and cleanroom engineering, which are expected to maintain strong demand and performance [3][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The construction industry's business activity index improved to 49.6% in November, indicating a recovery in the sector. The overall economic climate remains stable, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.2% [1][17]. - Significant investments in infrastructure are being driven by government initiatives, including the construction of urban underground pipelines and major transportation projects along the Yangtze River [2][18]. Market Performance - The construction industry saw a weekly increase of 2.81%, with the decoration and renovation sector performing particularly well [20][22]. - The report highlights that 82.32% of companies in the construction sector experienced stock price increases, with notable performers including Guo Sheng Technology and Shenghui Integration [22][23]. Key Investment Targets - Recommended companies include China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved fundamentals and government support [11][13]. - The cleanroom engineering sector is highlighted for its continued high demand, with companies like Yaxiang Integration and Shenghui Integration poised for growth due to increased orders and overseas business expansion [12][13]. Valuation Metrics - The construction and decoration industry has a current P/E ratio of 12.41 and a P/B ratio of 0.82, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [25]. - The report identifies several companies with low P/E ratios, such as Shandong Road and Bridge (4.08) and China State Construction (4.81), suggesting potential investment opportunities [25][29].

Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 is 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions[1] - The production index rose to 50% from 49.7%, returning to the expansion zone, while the new orders index increased to 49.2% from 48.8%[2] - The new export orders index improved significantly by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, suggesting a recovery in external demand[2] Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials rose by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 48.2%[3] - The inventory index for finished products decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 47.3%, indicating a passive destocking trend among enterprises[4] - Raw material inventory remained stable at 47.3%, while procurement volume increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%[4] Group 3: Sector Performance - The construction industry index rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, driven by year-end project completions[6] - The service industry index fell by 0.7 percentage points to 59.5%, reflecting a seasonal decline in consumer-related services[6] - Significant increases in export orders were noted in textiles, non-metallic minerals, general equipment, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals[2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the CNC machine tool market in China is experiencing rapid growth driven by downstream demand, with a projected market size of approximately 432.5 billion yuan in 2024 and expected to exceed 450 billion yuan by 2025 [1] - The domestic production rate of high-end CNC machine tools is only 6%, indicating significant room for domestic production growth in this segment [1] Group 2 - Increased policy support is expected to boost equipment demand, particularly with infrastructure investments, such as the commencement of the Yaxia hydropower project, which will drive demand for large excavators and other equipment [2] - The internationalization, electrification, and intelligentization processes are advancing, with electric loader sales increasing by 157.2% year-on-year, and intelligent applications like unmanned forklifts and mining equipment are anticipated to break through first [2] - The nuclear fusion industry is entering a phase of capital expenditure expansion, focusing on high-value components such as magnet systems, vacuum chambers, and power systems [2] - The low-altitude economy policy emphasizes safety, health, and high-quality development, with a positive outlook on infrastructure construction and low-altitude equipment research and application [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing policy support for infrastructure investment, which is expected to drive equipment demand, particularly for large excavators due to the commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Project [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Investment and Equipment Demand - Enhanced policy support is anticipated to boost infrastructure investment, leading to increased demand for equipment [1] - The initiation of the Yaxia Hydropower Project is expected to further stimulate the demand for large excavators and related machinery [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The internationalization, electrification, and intelligentization processes are advancing, with electric loader sales experiencing a year-on-year growth of 157.2% [1] - Intelligent applications such as unmanned forklifts and unmanned mining are expected to achieve breakthroughs [1] Group 3: Capital Expenditure in Fusion Industry - The nuclear fusion industry is entering a phase of capital expenditure expansion, with a focus on high-value components such as magnet systems, vacuum chambers, and power systems [1] Group 4: Low-altitude Economy - Policies related to the low-altitude economy emphasize safety, health, and high-quality development, with optimism surrounding infrastructure construction and low-altitude equipment research and application [1] Group 5: ETF Overview - The Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) tracks the China Securities Machine Tool Index (931866), which selects 50 listed companies involved in machine tool manufacturing and key component supply, covering various manufacturing sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The infrastructure investment in China has shown a year-on-year growth of 7.3% in the first half of 2018, but the growth rate has decreased by 2.1 percentage points compared to the first five months of the year. There is a need for local governments to increase the issuance of debt and special bonds to avoid hidden financing methods while controlling local government debt [1][2]. Group 1: Financing Situation - The tightening of financing platforms and local government financing has led to a noticeable decline in infrastructure investment growth. Although bank loan growth remains strong, off-balance-sheet and entrusted loans have decreased, indicating a tighter control in line with deleveraging measures [2]. - The control of local government debt is deemed necessary to reduce financial risks, but it is essential to balance this with the normal financing needs of local governments, especially for infrastructure projects [2]. Group 2: Measures for Increasing Debt Issuance - To effectively "open the front door" for financing, it is suggested to narrow the channels for shadow credit and expand financing sources for local governments. The issuance of corporate bonds and local government bonds, including special bonds, is expected to increase in the second half of the year [3]. - The approved scale for new local government bonds this year is 2.18 trillion yuan, with only over 300 billion yuan issued by mid-year, indicating significant room for increased issuance [3].