新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月15日，在全球主要央行政策逐步分化的背景下，市场正密切关注日本央行即将到来的利率决策。若 基准利率上调至0.75%，不仅刷新近30年的高位，也意味着低成本日元资金时代正在发生实质性变化。 RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，这一转折，对依赖流动性的风险资产而言并非中性。 从历史走势看，日元汇率变化与比特币价格之间存在明显的相关性。日元走强往往意味着全球资金成本 上升，流动性收紧，而比特币作为高流动性敏感资产，通常会率先承压。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示， 目前日元维持在相对强势区间，本身已对市场情绪形成一定约束。 在套利交易层面，日本长期的低利率环境曾为全球资金提供稳定"融资货币"。一旦利率抬升，借入日 元、配置高风险资产的策略吸引力下降，部分资金可能被迫降低杠杆或回补头寸，从而通过股票市场传 导至加密资产。 不过，RadexMarkets瑞德克斯认为，本轮加息未必完全复制以往的冲击路径。一方面，市场对日元的预 期已提前反映在持仓结构中，短期恐慌性平仓的空间有限；另一方面，日本债券收益率此前已显著上 行，本次加息更多是政策"补课"，而非突然转向。 与此同 ...

2025年倒数之际，白银和铜取代黄金成为投资者押注最大的两个贵金属。 蒙特利尔银行（BMO）的大宗商品分析师阿莫斯（Helen Amos）表示："我们预计大部分地区的白银供应紧张将持续 下去。"她补充称，散户投资者眼下也在追捧白银走高，特别是在北美地区，白银通常被称为"穷人的黄金"。 白银、铜取代黄金成为投资者最大押注 除了触及历史新高，随着2026年的临近，白银和铜已取代黄金成为热门金属交易品种，机构与散户交易者正为创纪录 的上涨行情布局。 白银价格年内大部分涨幅集中在过去两个月。Marex Group的分析师埃德·梅尔（Ed Meir）表示，银价反弹期间波动性 加剧。从图表来看，此次反弹的抛物线形态比以往更为陡峭，买盘更加集中，且持续时间大幅缩短。 由于全球供应紧缩，以及套利交易需求，白银本周稍早史上首次突破60美元/盎司。2025年倒数之际，白银和铜近期 取代黄金，成为投资者押注最大的两个贵金属。 "穷人的黄金" 自1月以来，白银价格年内已经翻了一番多。在多年供应不足的情况下，叠加工业用户和投资者强劲需求，10月白银 供应短缺加剧，出现严重的供应紧缩，伦敦金属交易所（LME）基准白银期货市场遭遇历史性供 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver and copper have replaced gold as the hot metals for trading heading into 2026, with both institutional and retail traders building positions for record price increases [1] - Silver prices have nearly doubled this year, with most gains occurring in the past two months due to soaring demand for silver ETFs and historic supply tightness in the London market [1][2] - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, saw nearly $1 billion in inflows last week, surpassing the largest gold fund, further supporting spot silver prices [1] Group 2: Volatility and Investor Behavior - Western investors, previously under-allocated in precious metals, are flocking to silver ETFs, indicating significant room for further inflows as allocations normalize [2] - The implied volatility of options for silver has reached its highest level since early 2021, reflecting increased retail trader interest [1][2] - Higher volatility in the silver market may require substantial price movements to sustain momentum, especially as the market enters uncharted territory [2] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - Demand for copper is expected to rise due to its financial attributes being less pronounced, but increasing needs from AI data centers and clean energy projects may lead to supply shortages in the coming years [4] - Recent price movements have seen copper futures rise above $11,600 per ton, with a structural bullish outlook due to supply constraints from major mine disruptions [4] - Global supply-demand balance for copper has tightened significantly, influenced by actual or potential tariffs affecting copper inflows to the U.S. [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - The current supply tightness in both precious metals and copper is partly attributed to arbitrage trading, with potential for a 10% to 15% pullback in the short term, but this is not expected to affect long-term trends [5]

2025年，铜价抬升的原因之一是美国囤库。特别是在这一周，LME铜库存出现集中提货之后，市场对 于非美地区低库存的担忧越发高涨。COMEX—LME溢价持续存在，尽管三季度、四季度溢价较二季度 大幅回落，但溢价均值仍维持在330美元/吨附近。花旗集团表示，COMEX和LME套利交易导致铜流向 美国，预计将进一步加剧LME铜供应吃紧。而且随着投资者押注美国经济软着陆，宏观基金买盘将继 续支撑价格，同时供应缺口不断扩大，预计铜价将持续攀升至明年初，第二季度均价约为13000美元/ 吨，高于此前10月预测的12000美元/吨，其乐观情境预测从14000美元/吨上调至15000美元/吨。不仅是 花旗在继续看涨，国内研究者也普遍继续看涨铜。中信证券的最新预测认为，明年LME铜价中枢将上 移至12000美元/吨以上。成本维度上看，近十年全球铜矿的单位勘探成本增长逾20倍至3300美元/吨以 上，新建、扩建项目的投资强度翻倍至15000美元/吨以上，参考上一轮资本开支高峰的铜价水平，当前 刺激价格或将上移至12000美元/吨，底部效应明显。(券商中国) ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise in copper prices in 2025 is attributed to U.S. stockpiling, with concerns over low inventories in non-U.S. regions intensifying following concentrated deliveries in LME copper stocks this week [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The COMEX-LME premium remains significant, averaging around $330 per ton, despite a substantial decline in premiums in Q3 and Q4 compared to Q2 [1] - Citigroup indicates that arbitrage trading between COMEX and LME is directing copper flows to the U.S., which is expected to exacerbate the tight supply of LME copper [1] Group 2: Price Forecasts - Investors are betting on a soft landing for the U.S. economy, which is likely to support prices through macro fund buying, while the supply gap continues to widen [1] - Copper prices are projected to continue rising into early next year, with an average price forecast of approximately $13,000 per ton in Q2, up from the previous October forecast of $12,000 per ton, and an optimistic scenario revised from $14,000 to $15,000 per ton [1] Group 3: Cost Considerations - Over the past decade, the unit exploration cost for global copper mines has increased more than 20 times to over $3,300 per ton, while the investment intensity for new and expanded projects has doubled to over $15,000 per ton [1] - Current price stimulation is expected to push prices up to $12,000 per ton, indicating a significant bottom effect based on previous capital expenditure peaks [1]

国内沪铜单周上涨超6%，主力合约近9.30万元/吨。 套利交易继续推高铜价 2025年，铜价抬升的原因之一是美国囤库。特别是在这一周，LME铜库存出现集中提货之后，市场对于非美 地区低库存的担忧越发高涨。COMEX—LME溢价持续存在，尽管三季度、四季度溢价较二季度大幅回落，但 溢价均值仍维持在330美元/吨附近。 过去一周内，LME（伦敦金属交易所）铜期货价格和上海期货交易所沪铜期货价格连续3次创下历史新高。随 着12月3日LME铜5万多吨仓单被注销，市场对于非美地区低库存的担忧，没有下降反而越发高涨，铜现货可 得性的担忧明显上升。 在这种背景下，市场对于明年铜价预期也在水涨船高。花旗银行对于明年铜价的乐观情境预测，已经上调至 15000美元/吨。目前，LME盘中最高11705美元/吨，年内涨幅已达32.84%。 沪铜涨幅明显扩大 12月5日周五，国内外铜价再创历史新高。过去一周内，LME铜期货价格和上海期货交易所沪铜期货价格连续 3次创下历史新高。到周五收盘时，沪铜期货主力合约价格创下历史新高的92910元/吨，伦铜期货价格盘中触 及11705美元/吨。而同期，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜期货主力期货合 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Bao Zhenxiang from a futures broker to an asset manager over 15 years, emphasizing his success in the national futures competition through arbitrage strategies [1] - Bao Zhenxiang discusses the importance of balancing past, present, and future trading strategies to achieve cross-cycle profitability, particularly in the context of a volatile macroeconomic environment [1][2] - The article underscores the significance of thorough research and diversified investment strategies to manage risks effectively in trading [2] Group 1 - Bao Zhenxiang achieved the ninth place in the asset management product group at the national futures competition using arbitrage strategies [1] - The current market environment is not conducive to traditional arbitrage logic, necessitating a focus on fundamental and macro trading strategies [1][2] - Successful trading requires a deep understanding of various futures contracts, particularly in industrial and agricultural products, to capture market opportunities [1] Group 2 - Each trading strategy must consider the time value and safety margin of the asset, with strong fundamentals leading to positive arbitrage and weak fundamentals leading to negative arbitrage [2] - Bao Zhenxiang emphasizes the importance of a "mistake book" for traders to learn from past errors and achieve a deeper understanding of trading dynamics [2] - Maintaining physical health and mental clarity is crucial for traders to perform effectively in the market [3] Group 3 - The article advises ordinary investors to avoid blind following and unrealistic expectations of quick wealth, focusing instead on strategy and risk management [3]

尽管如此，由于美联储年内降息的预期强烈压制收益率上行，美债收益率仍在4%附近震荡。上周纽约 联储主席威廉姆斯表示短期内存在降息空间，曾推动基准收益率一度跌破该水平。 根据利率市场定价，美联储在12月会议再次降息的概率约为80%。这一预期在周末进一步升温：美国总 统特朗普表示他已决定下一任美联储主席人选，市场普遍认为白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特是 最热门的接班候选。知情人士称，哈塞特与特朗普均倾向更激进的降息路径。 投资者亦关注美国供应管理协会(ISM)即将公布的11月制造业数据。瑞穗策略师Evelyne Gomez-Liechti表 示，如果支付价格下降而整体指数略有改善，"将强化目前市场的看跌压力是合理的"。 周一美股三大指数开盘走低，纳指跌0.67%，标普500指数跌0.52%，道指跌0.5%。同时，避险资产走 强：日元升至155.5附近，现货黄金则触及六周高点，最高触及4264.61美元。 日本超低利率长期以来是全球热门套利交易的核心：投资者以低成本借入日元，投资于更高收益的风险 资产。City Index高级市场分析师Fiona Cincotta表示，植田的加息暗示可能导致市场担忧套利交易迅速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the influx of copper supply into the U.S. market due to tariff expectations is creating a "must rise" market structure for copper prices, presenting a significant opportunity for copper bulls, while Asian buyers may be forced to accept high premiums to secure supply [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The influx of metals into the U.S. market is leading to a risk of further depletion of copper inventories in other regions globally [3]. - The current market structure is characterized by tight supply and rising prices, which is expected to result in higher premiums for Asian buyers [3][5]. - The U.S. is now the largest consumer of copper globally, with significant premiums observed in New York futures prices compared to London benchmarks [5][6]. Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - The U.S. copper imports are projected to increase significantly in the coming months, with expectations of reaching record levels similar to those seen in Q2 2025 [4]. - The article notes that the current market dynamics, despite existing surpluses, are leading to price increases, indicating a unique situation in the copper market [4]. - There is a potential scenario where U.S. copper prices could rise to $12,000 or $15,000, which would create a supply shortage in China as buyers return from the Spring Festival [7]. Group 3: Premiums and Competition - Traders are currently pushing up premiums for deliverable copper, with some attempting to purchase Chilean copper at premiums exceeding $500 over LME prices [7]. - Codelco, the largest copper producer, has recently set benchmark premiums above $300 per ton for its customers in Korea and China, shocking Asian buyers [7]. - The article suggests that while Chinese buyers are hesitant about high prices now, they are likely to accept them in the near future as supply tightens [7].

摩科瑞能源集团金属业务主管Kostas Bintas日前重申了对铜价的看涨预测，并发出警告称， 随着大量金属涌入美国市场，全球其他地区的铜库存面临进一步 枯竭的风险。 为套取价差利润，交易员正将大量金属运至报价更高的美国市场，从而改变了市场动态。这种溢价在很大程度上受到对未来关税政策持续不确定性的推动。尽 管特朗普在今年早些时候暂时豁免了对精炼铜的征税，但他表示将在2026年下半年重新审视这一决定，这促使市场再次加速囤货。 在上海举行的一次重要行业会议结束时，Bintas接受采访表示 ，如果目前的资金流向持续下去，全球其他地区将面临"无铜可用"的窘境。 作为全球知名的金属 交易商，摩科瑞能源集团在去年大举扩张金属市场业务，并曾是今年早些时候大规模套利交易的主要参与者之一。 他将当前的局势形容为铜多头"一次大好机会"。 据报道，Bintas指出，利润丰厚的美国套利交易正在卷土重来，这将导致美国以外地区供应短缺，推动铜价这种全球基准工业金属价格"只能上涨"。 套利交易重启与美国进口激增 随着对美发货量的回升，摩科瑞预计未来几个月美国的铜进口量将显著增加。该公司预测，2026年第一季度的进口速度将与2025年第二季 ...