Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened in the currency market by purchasing HKD 64.29 billion (approximately USD 8.19 billion) to maintain the stability of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar, following previous interventions in late July and early August [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Intervention - The HKMA's recent market intervention is part of a series of actions since June aimed at curbing the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar, which has been pressured by significant interest rate differentials between Hong Kong and the US [4][5]. - In total, the HKMA has withdrawn HKD 138.9 billion from the market through currency purchases over the past week to keep the exchange rate within the 7.75-7.85 range [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Southbound capital outflows reached approximately HKD 181 billion on Monday, marking the largest single-day net outflow since May 12, which has intensified downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar [1][4]. - Seasonal demand reduction and the outflow of southbound funds are contributing to the prevailing selling pressure on the Hong Kong dollar, as noted by DBS Bank's strategist Carie Li [4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent US employment data has led to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could alleviate some pressure on the HKMA if the interest rate differential narrows [5]. - The ongoing arbitrage trading driven by the interest rate gap is expected to remain active, with further interventions from the HKMA likely in the future [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market has stabilized after significant volatility caused by the yen's appreciation last year, with current market conditions suggesting a lower likelihood of a repeat collapse in 2024 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Stability and Investor Sentiment - Analysts highlight that improved communication from the Bank of Japan, ongoing corporate governance reforms, and favorable US-China tariff agreements have contributed to a more stable market environment [4]. - The market has formed expectations for continued interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook [4][7]. - The volatility of the yen has decreased significantly compared to the previous year, with the exchange rate around 146.95 against the dollar, contrasting with a 10% increase in the same period last year [4][7]. Group 2: Corporate Governance and Foreign Investment - Foreign capital is flowing into the Japanese stock market, driven by corporate buybacks and governance reforms that enhance long-term value for investors [10]. - The ongoing reforms aimed at increasing shareholder returns are seen as attractive for global investors seeking diversified portfolios [10]. - The potential for fiscal expansion policies post-elections is expected to boost domestic demand sectors, further enhancing market attractiveness [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have raised their target prices for the Nikkei 225 and Topix indices, citing that US-China tariff agreements remaining below 15% will alleviate export pressures on Japan [12]. - The yen's trajectory remains a critical variable, with potential implications for market resilience if the Federal Reserve lowers rates while the Bank of Japan continues tightening [12][13]. - Current exchange rates are becoming a new indicator for observing global capital flows, reflecting the interconnectedness of international markets [13].

Group 1 - Switzerland's unique position in global gold trade is causing a trade deficit with the U.S. to become a focal point of Trump's tariff policy, with tariffs on Switzerland reaching as high as 39% [1] - In the first quarter of this year, Switzerland exported over $36 billion worth of gold to the U.S., accounting for more than two-thirds of its trade surplus with the country [1] - The Swiss National Bank and IMD Business School emphasize that gold exports should not be included in trade relationship analyses, as they reflect financial market activities rather than actual economic output [2] Group 2 - Recent surges in Swiss gold exports to the U.S. are driven by an arbitrage opportunity due to concerns over potential tariffs, leading to a price premium in New York [3] - The arbitrage process involves transporting gold bars from London to Switzerland for re-minting into Comex specifications before delivery to New York, highlighting the importance of Swiss refineries in this trade [3] - Despite the high volume of gold trade, the refining business itself has relatively low added value, with Swiss refiners earning only a few dollars per ounce from re-minting [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rebound of the US dollar has led some emerging market investors to believe that the dollar will continue to strengthen in the coming months, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising by 2.7% in July, ending a six-month decline, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell by 1.2% [1] - Barclays advises clients to avoid shorting the dollar against Asian currencies and instead recommends going long on the dollar against certain low-yielding currencies in the region, indicating a cautious stance on betting against the dollar during the summer [1] - Barclays prefers to completely avoid relative value trades involving the dollar, such as betting on the Singapore dollar weakening against the renminbi or shorting the Thai baht against the Korean won [1] Group 2 - Fidelity International suggests that the attractiveness of the dollar as a funding currency for arbitrage trades is declining due to the potential for US interest rates to remain high for an extended period, recommending consideration of lower-cost alternative funding currencies [2] - T. Rowe Price Group favors dollar-denominated emerging market bonds over local currency bonds as a tactical trade, noting that last month, emerging market dollar bonds outperformed local currency bonds with a return of 0.9% compared to -0.9% for local currency bonds [2] - T. Rowe Price's fund manager in Hong Kong expresses a preference for holding dollar-denominated emerging market bonds due to their more attractive yields, while indicating that the dollar may enter a consolidation phase over the next three to six months, posing challenges for local currency bond returns [2]

Core Viewpoint - The abrupt reversal of Trump's copper tariff policy, from a proposed 50% tariff to almost complete exemption, has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper prices falling over 20% and spot premiums nearing zero [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The recent tariff exemption exceeded market expectations, leading to a reversal of the "U.S. copper tariff trade" and creating downward pressure on prices [2][3]. - The cancellation of tariffs is viewed as the most negative scenario for copper prices, as it forces the liquidation of previously established arbitrage positions [2][3]. Group 2: Inventory Concerns - The U.S. holds a significant surplus of copper inventory, estimated at 500,000 to 700,000 tons, which will take 6-12 months to digest, further pressuring copper prices [2][4]. - The U.S. accounts for less than 10% of global copper demand, yet the tariff expectations have distorted global copper trade, leading to increased imports and subsequent overstocking [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The price differential between COMEX and LME copper had previously attracted significant metal inflows into the U.S., but this differential has now collapsed due to the tariff exemption [3][4]. - U.S. refined copper imports surged by approximately 400,000 tons (+130%) year-on-year in the first five months of the year, contributing to the accumulation of excess inventory [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has implemented a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, contrary to market expectations that it would target refined copper itself [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting August 1, 2025, based on the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 [1]. - Refined copper and copper input materials such as copper ore, concentrates, and scrap copper are explicitly excluded from the tariff [1][3]. - The announcement led to a significant drop in CME copper futures prices, which fell over 20% on the day of the announcement [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, CME warehouse inventories surged to 232,195 tons, the highest level since 2004, due to a rush of refined copper imports before the tariff took effect [2]. - The price premium of CME copper futures over LME prices narrowed significantly, from nearly $1,200 per ton to less than $150 per ton [1][3]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Structural Challenges - The influx of refined copper has created a supply-demand mismatch, raising concerns about whether U.S. smelting and processing capacities can handle the increased resources [5]. - From 2027, a policy mandates that 25% of domestic copper concentrates and recycled copper must be sold in the U.S., increasing to 40% within two years, which may exert structural pressure on the existing system [5]. - Analysts suggest that the physical supply chain will take months to rebalance, with the possibility of copper being re-exported from the U.S. being reassessed [6].

相较之下，铜矿、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜、阳极铜以及废铜等"铜输入材料"被明确排除在关税之外，暂不 受"232条款"或对等关税约束。 此前市场广泛预期，此轮关税将针对精炼铜本身，从而引发了自2月以来的套利交易热潮，并导致纽约 铜价远高于伦敦市场。消息公布后，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）近月铜合约当日暴跌超过20%。截至发 稿前，CME铜期货价格较伦敦金属交易所（LME）溢价已进一步收窄至不足150美元/吨，相比此前接 近1200美元的峰值几乎被完全抹平。 由于大量精铜抢在关税生效前运抵美国，CME仓库库存大幅飙升。截至7月30日，注册库存升至232195 吨，为2004年以来最高水平。 截至7月底，累计运往美国的铜量已超50万吨，远高于美国每年约90万吨的进口均值。 在经历数月政策博弈与市场押注后，美国对铜征收关税的细节终于落地，却与多数交易员预期大相径 庭。 据新华社报道，根据美国白宫网站7月30日发布的事实清单，特朗普当日签署公告，从8月1日起对进口 的铜半成品和铜含量高的衍生品统一征收50%的关税。 公告称，对进口铜加征关税的依据是《1962年贸易扩展法》第232条款，针对的产品包括铜管、铜线、 铜棒和铜片等半 ...

高盛：美国公共债务或成主要中长期金融风险 荷兰国际：美欧经济增长数据分化或触发欧元跌破1.15 巴克莱：日本扩张性财政或促使美元兑日元破150 套利交易将重启 【机构分析】 （文章来源：新华财经） 荷兰国际集团分析师指出，如果与美国经济数据显现出有利于美元的增长分化，欧元可能面临新一轮下 跌压力。市场焦点集中于美欧增长数据对比，任何有利于美国的显著分化都可能触发欧元下行，短期内 需警惕跌破1.15的风险。法国第二季度经济增长率为0.3%，虽强于预期，但增幅温和，显示出复苏动能 有限。德国作为欧元区最大经济体，其增长数据将对欧元区整体表现产生重大影响，市场正密切关注。 若美国经济数据明显优于欧元区，欧元兑美元可能跌破1.15关键支撑位。预计欧元将在第三季度走弱， 随后在第四季度回升至1.18美元。 ING分析师指出，如果加拿大央行维持利率不变，但暗示未来可能降息，加元或将承压下跌。市场目前 仅消化了加拿大央行年底前15个基点的降息预期。鉴于这种保守的市场定价以及美加贸易谈判带来的经 济风险，加拿大央行可能会促使市场押注更多降息。 此举将直接对加元构成下行压力。ING持续预 计，本季度美元兑加元将触及1.39的水 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has performed the worst among major currencies in the past three months, facing further decline due to rising political risks in Japan [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Strategists are pessimistic about the yen, anticipating that the outcome of the Japanese elections will lead to increased government spending, while the impact of U.S. tariffs may slow down interest rate cuts [1] - The Liberal Democratic Party's loss in the July 20 elections is a key factor affecting the yen, with analysts warning that Prime Minister Kishida may resort to populist fiscal spending to consolidate his weakened ruling coalition [1] - The demand for bullish dollar/yen options reflects market expectations that the Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda will not signal interest rate hikes soon, as short-term growth and inflation risks are skewed to the downside [1][2] Group 2: Currency Performance and Positioning - The yen has depreciated approximately 6% since reaching a seven-month high in April, currently trading around 148.25 against the dollar [2] - Market participants betting on yen depreciation expect Kishida to yield to opposition-driven tax cuts to boost support for the ruling coalition [2] - Barclays strategists suggest that regardless of the political outcome, fiscal policy is likely to become more expansionary, potentially pushing the dollar/yen pair above the 150 level [2] Group 3: Central Bank Policy and Economic Impact - The Bank of Japan is set to announce its policy decision, which will be a key factor influencing the yen's short-term trajectory, with investors closely watching Governor Ueda's comments for indications of future rate hikes [3] - Overnight index swaps currently price in a 74% probability of a rate hike this year, up from 59% prior to the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement [3] - Analysts believe the Bank of Japan will need time to assess the actual impact of the tariffs, suggesting that the yen may depreciate above 150 this year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has underperformed against all major competitors over the past three months, with increasing political risks potentially leading to further depreciation [1] Group 1: Currency Performance and Market Sentiment - Strategists hold a bearish outlook on the yen, anticipating that election results will prompt increased government spending and that U.S. tariff policies may delay interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1] - As of July 22, the yen has depreciated approximately 6% against the dollar since reaching a seven-month high in April, now trading at 148.27 yen per dollar [4] - The ratio of bullish to bearish options for the dollar-yen pair is about 4:1, indicating a strong sentiment for further appreciation of the dollar against the yen [4] Group 2: Political Factors and Economic Implications - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito faced significant losses in the July 20 Senate elections, raising concerns about potential populist spending measures from Prime Minister Kishida [1] - Analysts suggest that if Kishida were to resign, he might be succeeded by a leader favoring fiscal and monetary stimulus, which could lead to more expansive fiscal policies [4] - Barclays strategists predict that if expansionary fiscal policies are implemented, the dollar-yen exchange rate could exceed 150 due to sensitivity to long-term premium changes [4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan's upcoming policy decision is expected to influence the yen's near-term performance, with a 74% probability of a rate hike by year-end [7] - Despite potential capital outflows from the proposed U.S. investment fund, some analysts believe the yen could strengthen to levels between 142 and 143 against the dollar if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [7] - Market participants are closely monitoring comments from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda regarding the timing of future interest rate hikes, as current conditions do not favor the yen [7]