Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a 4.44% increase in the week from October 3 to October 10, ranking first among all primary industries. The industrial metals segment rose by 5.35%, while precious metals also saw significant gains [1][15]. - The report highlights that the ongoing decline in real interest rates, coupled with overseas fiscal and tariff pressures, has heightened risk aversion, leading to new highs in precious metals [1][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 4.08 percentage points [15]. - The industrial metals sector saw a 5.35% increase, while precious metals rose by 4.00% [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of October 10, LME copper closed at $10,374 per ton, down 3.05% week-on-week, while SHFE copper rose to ¥85,910 per ton, up 3.37% [2][31]. Supply issues persist, with Freeport indicating a reduction of approximately 470,000 tons due to an incident at Grasberg [2][31]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,746 per ton, up 1.63%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,980 per ton, up 1.45% [3][35]. Social inventory increased by 7.71% to 642,500 tons, indicating potential short-term pressure on prices [3][37]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,985 per ton, down 1.52%, while SHFE zinc rose to ¥22,270 per ton, up 2.04% [39]. Inventory levels fluctuated, with LME inventory decreasing by 4.65% [39]. - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,350 per ton, down 4.85%, while SHFE tin rose to ¥286,350 per ton, up 4.10% [45]. Supply constraints from Indonesia are tightening the market [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,035.50 per ounce, up 3.15%, and SHFE gold at ¥901.56 per gram, up 5.48% [4][48]. The report notes that the downtrend in real interest rates and ongoing fiscal pressures are beneficial for gold prices [4][48]. Economic Context - The report discusses the impact of U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's consensus on interest rate cuts, which are expected to further influence the metals market [26][48]. The potential for renewed tariffs on Chinese imports adds uncertainty to the market dynamics [4][49].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing significant gains, with notable increases in stock prices for companies such as Western Gold, Xiaocheng Technology, Zhaojin Gold, and Chifeng Gold, driven by macroeconomic factors and expectations of continued monetary easing [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the morning of October 13, the precious metals sector is active and strong, with Western Gold rising over 7%, Xiaocheng Technology up over 6%, Zhaojin Gold increasing over 5%, and Chifeng Gold gaining over 2% [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Dongwu Securities highlights that following the key changes in the Federal Reserve's stance during the global central bank conference in August, the persistence of re-inflation and the decline in non-violent service sector inflation have become central to the current macroeconomic narrative [1] - The interplay between tariffs causing inflation to rise and the expectations of interest rate cuts leading to a decrease in nominal rates will continue to influence the market, indicating a period of rapidly declining real interest rates [1] - The outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations for continued strength in the sector [1]

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed performance, with the main contract for Shanghai gold leading the gains [1] - As of the market close at 15:00, Shanghai gold, international copper, and Shanghai copper rose over 4%, while soybean oil, Shanghai nickel, and Shanghai silver increased over 2% [1] - Factors supporting the long-term upward trend of gold include the reconstruction of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and structural supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2 - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has increased market uncertainty regarding economic direction and Federal Reserve policy, leading to heightened investment risk and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy has raised expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, contributing to a downward trend in real interest rates [2] - Given the support from macroeconomic slowdown, monetary policy easing, and geopolitical factors, precious metal prices are expected to maintain a bullish outlook in the long term [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts Tongguan Gold's (00340) EPS for 2025-2026 to be HKD 0.16 and HKD 0.23, with a CAGR of 121% from 2024-2026, indicating strong growth potential [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company emphasizes the strategic importance of exploration and resource expansion, holding a total gold resource of 55.0 tons with an average grade of 8.26 g/t [2] - Tongguan Gold's production is expected to increase, with projected gold sales of 2.8 tons and 3.4 tons for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - The acquisition of Xi'an Hongshang, a mining engineering supplier, is anticipated to lower production costs through industry chain integration [2] Group 2: Strategic Investments - Zijin Mining's strategic investment includes acquiring 3.82% of the company through its wholly-owned subsidiary, reflecting confidence in the company's asset quality and strategic direction [3] - The partnership with Zijin is expected to enhance the company's cash flow and provide potential for future mergers and acquisitions [3] Group 3: Market Conditions - The decline in real interest rates and the trend of central bank gold purchases are expected to support rising gold prices [4] - The anticipated continuation of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China is likely to replicate previous successful operations [4] - Potential catalysts for growth include sustained increases in gold prices and successful transitions in mining operations at Tongguan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in spot gold prices, reaching a new high of $3831 per ounce, is driven by various factors including liquidity, inflation trends, and seasonal demand for gold jewelry [1] Group 1: Short-term Analysis - Most metals are experiencing price increases due to ample liquidity, which is expected to further support gold prices [1] - The financial attributes of gold are likely to enhance its upward trajectory in the short term [1] Group 2: Mid-term Outlook - If market sentiment shifts, gold will serve as a strong safe-haven asset, especially if other metals show signs of reversal [1] - The potential for increased demand for gold as a hedge against market volatility is anticipated [1] Group 3: Long-term Perspective - The decline in the credibility of the US dollar is identified as a primary narrative for the current bull market in gold [1] - Future policies from the Trump administration may contribute to further depreciation of the dollar's value [1] Group 4: Inflation and Interest Rates - The ongoing upward trend in US commodity inflation, coupled with a slowdown in service sector inflation, is noted [1] - The Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market suggests that moderate commodity inflation will not alter its interest rate reduction strategy [1] - The combination of rising tariffs and declining nominal interest rates is expected to benefit precious metals in the near future [1] Group 5: Seasonal Demand - The recent increase in international gold prices coincides with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which is likely to sustain demand for gold jewelry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking it lower among all primary industries. Precious metals outperformed with a 5.55% increase, while industrial metals rose by 5.15% [1][15]. - Economic data from the U.S. exceeded expectations, leading to a decline in interest rate cut expectations. Precious metals are expected to benefit from the rapid decline in real interest rates since August [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, with the non-ferrous metals sector increasing by 3.52%, outperforming the index by 3.31 percentage points [15]. - Among the sub-sectors, precious metals increased by 5.55%, industrial metals by 5.15%, while small metals and new materials declined [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper rose due to supply concerns from the Grasberg mine incident in Indonesia. As of September 26, LME copper was priced at $10,205 per ton, up 2.09% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥82,470 per ton, up 3.20% [2][34]. Supply is tightening due to significant maintenance in domestic smelting plants and the mine incident affecting production [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices recorded a slight decline, with LME aluminum at $2,649 per ton, down 1.01%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,745 per ton, down 0.24% [3][39]. Demand remains weak despite pre-holiday stocking, and overall theoretical demand has decreased [3]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell, with LME zinc at $2,887 per ton, down 0.41%, and SHFE zinc at ¥21,980 per ton, down 0.29% [42]. Inventory levels showed mixed trends, with LME inventory decreasing while SHFE inventory increased [42]. - **Tin**: Tin prices increased slightly, with LME tin at $34,415 per ton, up 0.57%, and SHFE tin at ¥274,070 per ton, up 1.97% [47]. Supply issues persist due to slow recovery in Myanmar and ongoing maintenance in domestic production [47]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Gold prices reached new highs, with COMEX gold at $3,789.80 per ounce, up 1.89%, and SHFE gold at ¥856.06 per gram, up 3.07% [4][51]. Positive U.S. economic data has led to a slight reduction in interest rate cut expectations, supporting gold prices [4][52]. The report emphasizes that the current macro narrative favors precious metals due to the expected continuation of declining real interest rates [4][52].

2025年初买的黄金，赚疯了！ 2025年无疑是黄金的大年，仅在前三个季度，国际黄金就已上演一场"史诗级"行情。根据Wind数据统计，伦敦现货黄金价格从2024年最后一个交易日的 2624.16美元/盎司，一路飙升至2025年9月16日盘中3702.93美元/盎司，涨幅超过40%。 如果有人在年初布局黄金并坚定持有，那轻松跑赢一些基金和理财产品则不成问题。 数据来源：Wind、统计截至：2025/9/17 这一轮黄金的强势上涨，可谓占尽"天时、地利、人和"。 年初特朗普就任美国总统后，市场对其政策不确定性的担忧迅速发酵，伦敦现货金价在1月突破2800美元/盎司、2月站上2900美元/盎司关口。随后，美国 债务问题与地缘政治风险轮番助推，黄金作为传统避险资产持续受到资金青睐。 然而，真正点燃金价行情的，是特朗普挑起的全球关税摩擦。进入4月，市场对贸易冲突的担忧达到高峰，国际金价单月实现"三级跳"，连续突破3300美 元/盎司、3400美元/盎司和3500美元/盎司三大整数关口，强势尽显。 随后的四个月，尽管中东地缘冲突等事件不时扰动，但由于前期涨势过大，金价进入高位震荡整固阶段。 图片来源：利得研究院 "靴子" ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a decline of 4.02% from September 15 to September 19, ranking low among all primary industries, with various sub-sectors showing mixed performance [2][5]. Summary by Category Overall Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector fell by 4.02% during the week, ranking low among all primary industries [2]. - Among the sub-sectors, energy metals increased by 1.25%, while metal new materials, industrial metals, precious metals, and small metals declined by 3.06%, 3.90%, 6.17%, and 7.66% respectively [2]. Industrial Metals - Demand for industrial metals is slowly recovering as the peak season approaches, but the recovery is weak. The recent interest rate cut in the U.S. led to profit-taking, resulting in a pullback in industrial metals [2]. - As of September 19, copper prices fell, with LME copper at $9,997 per ton (down 0.71%) and SHFE copper at ¥79,910 per ton (down 1.42%) [3]. - Supply constraints are expected as domestic copper smelting plants undergo maintenance, and the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is temporarily shut down due to an accident [3]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices recorded a decline due to dissipating sanctions sentiment against Russia and profit-taking following the interest rate cut. LME aluminum closed at $2,676 per ton (down 0.93%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,795 per ton (down 1.54%) as of September 19 [4][5]. - The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry remained unchanged at 44.085 million tons, with slight increases in production utilization rates for aluminum products [4]. Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a pullback due to profit-taking after the interest rate cut, with COMEX gold closing at $3,719.40 per ounce (up 1.05%) and SHFE gold at ¥830.56 per gram (down 0.44%) [6]. - The U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, contributing to the market's reaction to the interest rate cut, which is expected to benefit precious metals in the medium term [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's preventive interest rate cut was less dovish than expected, leading to a pullback in gold prices, although market expectations for further rate cuts this year continue to support gold prices [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated two more cuts totaling 50 basis points for the year [1] - The Fed removed the statement regarding a robust labor market and acknowledged rising risks to employment, admitting to an economic slowdown and soft consumer spending [1] - The Fed's future rate path will depend on economic data, indicating a shift towards prioritizing employment over inflation [1] Group 2: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices reached a historical high but faced pressure and declined, with a significant drop of nearly $40 from $3670 to a low of $3628 [1] - Current support levels for gold are at $3652, $3633, and $3600, while resistance levels are at $3674 and $3700 [1][3] - Despite the recent pullback, gold remains above $3600, indicating that the overall upward trend has not been compromised [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Short-term technical indicators suggest a need for adjustment after consecutive price increases, aligning with the current high-level fluctuations in gold prices [3] - The 5-day moving average is showing signs of slowing, and MACD indicators are turning down, indicating potential short-term weakness [3] - The market is advised to adopt a range-bound trading strategy, focusing on key support and resistance levels [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold experienced short - term profit - taking after the Fed's September rate cut, but maintains a long - term bullish outlook. The Fed's dot - plot shows a further 50bp rate cut this year and continued easing in 2025, which, along with other factors, supports the mid - term upward momentum of gold prices [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and hinted at further rate cuts for the rest of the year in response to concerns about the weakening job market [2]. - US President Trump paid a second state visit to the UK and praised the special relationship between the two countries [2]. - US Congressman John Moolenaar expressed concerns about the TikTok framework agreement between China and the US [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold has been oscillating in the range of 3,660 - 3,700 after the Fed's September rate cut. It has risen about 39% since the beginning of the year, and although there is short - term profit - taking, mid - term upward momentum remains [3]. - Driving factors include the Fed's expected 50bp rate cut this year and continued easing in 2025, global central banks' continuous gold purchases, Trump's pressure on the Fed's independence, and escalating geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The global ETF gold holdings are still about 3,000 tons, with room to recover to the 2020 high of 3,500 tons [3]. - In the short term, focus on the 3500 - 3800 oscillation range, and maintain a long - term bullish view [3]. 3.3 Outlook - Weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3500, 3800], and weekly London silver spot in the range of [39, 45] [3]. 3.4 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of commodities on September 18, 2025: the commodity 20 index was 2489.53, down 1.04%; the industrial products index was 2246.67, down 1.06% [42]. 3.5 Precious Metals Index - On September 18, 2025, the precious metals index was 2878.86, with a daily decline of 1.22%, a 5 - day decline of 1.53%, a 1 - month increase of 6.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 30.12% [44].