公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源：内容编译自msn 。 台积电长期以来一直是全球芯片制造业的领军企业。作为英伟达、苹果、AMD 和高通等科技巨头的 主要半导体供应商，其制造工厂（或称"晶圆厂"）代表着现代数字经济的心脏。但如今，台积电决定 将业务拓展至多个大洲，这不仅考验着其战略带宽的极限，也考验着投资者的耐心。 美国扩张是有代价的 台积电对美国1650亿美元的巨额投资承诺已成为政治噱头。该公司计划在美国境内建设三座芯片工 厂，其中包括一座备受期待的亚利桑那州工厂，该工厂的目标是到2028年采用其尖端的2纳米工艺生 产芯片。 但有一个问题。这一时间表比中国台湾同类技术的生产推广晚了数年。这意味着，即使美国科技公司 在美国设有实体工厂，他们可能仍然需要直接从台湾进口最先进的芯片——至少目前如此。 与此同时，台积电的国际化雄心在诸多优先事项的重压下开始受挫。据报道，作为一项200亿美元计 划的一部分，位于日本熊本县的第二家工厂正面临延期，因为该公司将重心和资源重新分配给美国市 场的发展。这预示着一个更深层次的挑战：在政治绥靖、物流执行和技术领先地位之间取得平衡，可 能无法在太多国家之间持续下去 ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 IH 升水，IC 及 IM 贴水扩大，中小盘短期 偏多对待 分红对期指的影响 20250704 研究结论 | 上证50股指期货 | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2507 | 2723.00 | 22.58 | -17.44 | 5.14 | | IH2508 | 2717.20 | 25.93 | -23.24 | 2.68 | | IH2509 | 2717.20 | 26.99 | -23.24 | 3.75 | | IH2512 | 2715.00 | 26.99 | -25.44 | 1.55 | | 沪深300股指期货 | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | IF2507 | 3963.80 | 22.56 | -18.40 | 4.16 | | IF2508 | 3944.80 | 29.39 | -37.40 | -8.02 | | IF2509 | 3936.00 | 33.20 | -46.20 | -13.01 | | IF2512 | 389 ...

- Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy; Model Construction Idea: The strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies; Model Construction Process: The strategy involves holding the corresponding total return index on the spot side and shorting the corresponding stock index futures contracts on the futures side, with specific parameters and settings for backtesting, including the backtesting period, spot side, futures side, and rebalancing rules[44][45] - Model Name: Minimum Discount Strategy; Model Construction Idea: The strategy selects the futures contract with the smallest annualized basis discount for opening positions; Model Construction Process: The strategy involves holding the corresponding total return index on the spot side and shorting the corresponding stock index futures contracts on the futures side, with specific parameters and settings for backtesting, including the backtesting period, spot side, futures side, and rebalancing rules[44][46] - Factor Name: Cinda-VIX; Factor Construction Idea: The factor reflects the market's expectation of future volatility of the underlying asset; Factor Construction Process: The factor is based on the methodology from the research report series "Exploring Market Sentiment Implied in the Options Market" and reflects the volatility expectations of investors in the options market for different periods[62] - Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW; Factor Construction Idea: The factor captures the skewness of implied volatility (IV) of options with different strike prices; Factor Construction Process: The factor measures the degree of skewness in volatility, providing insights into market expectations of future returns distribution of the underlying asset[70][71] - Continuous Hedging Strategy, Annualized Return: -2.73% (monthly), -1.93% (quarterly), -0.95% (minimum discount); Volatility: 3.88% (monthly), 4.77% (quarterly), 4.68% (minimum discount); Maximum Drawdown: -8.15% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly), -7.97% (minimum discount); Net Value: 0.9221 (monthly), 0.9446 (quarterly), 0.9725 (minimum discount); Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 17.40 (minimum discount); 2025 YTD Return: -3.24% (monthly), -0.94% (quarterly), -0.63% (minimum discount)[48] - Continuous Hedging Strategy, Annualized Return: 0.54% (monthly), 0.80% (quarterly), 1.37% (minimum discount); Volatility: 3.02% (monthly), 3.36% (quarterly), 3.15% (minimum discount); Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly), -4.06% (minimum discount); Net Value: 1.0159 (monthly), 1.0237 (quarterly), 1.0406 (minimum discount); Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 15.36 (minimum discount); 2025 YTD Return: -0.75% (monthly), 0.39% (quarterly), 0.70% (minimum discount)[53] - Continuous Hedging Strategy, Annualized Return: 1.07% (monthly), 2.04% (quarterly), 1.76% (minimum discount); Volatility: 3.13% (monthly), 3.56% (quarterly), 3.15% (minimum discount); Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly), -3.91% (minimum discount); Net Value: 1.0316 (monthly), 1.0609 (quarterly), 1.0526 (minimum discount); Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 16.04 (minimum discount); 2025 YTD Return: 0.08% (monthly), 1.15% (quarterly), 1.14% (minimum discount)[57] - Continuous Hedging Strategy, Annualized Return: -5.96% (monthly), -4.33% (quarterly), -3.76% (minimum discount); Volatility: 4.74% (monthly), 5.79% (quarterly), 5.60% (minimum discount); Maximum Drawdown: -14.00% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly), -11.11% (minimum discount); Net Value: 0.8521 (monthly), 0.8849 (quarterly), 0.9009 (minimum discount); Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 15.96 (minimum discount); 2025 YTD Return: -8.68% (monthly), -3.91% (quarterly), -3.47% (minimum discount)[59] - Cinda-VIX, 30-day VIX values: 17.29 (SSE 50), 15.95 (CSI 300), 23.13 (CSI 500), 21.70 (CSI 1000)[62] - Cinda-SKEW, 30-day SKEW values: 100.62 (SSE 50), 101.40 (CSI 300), 96.04 (CSI 500), 102.73 (CSI 1000)[71]

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图 查看详情 ） 融升基金简介 山东融升私募基金 自2013年由资深基金经理侯茂林先生创立以来，始终坚守"诚信、专业、进取"的核心价值观。作为中国证券投资 基金业协会会员单位（管理人登记号：P1018279），公司以严谨的风控体系、卓越的投研能力，力求为投资者创造长期可持续的财 富增值。 融升基金 "全天候多资产对冲策略" ，融合西方经济周期理论、风险平价模型与中国市场特色，通过宏观政策解读、货币趋势研判及 资产估值分析，动态捕捉高性价比投资机会。历史业绩持续领跑大盘，旗下二十余只产品均以亮眼表现回报客户信任，屡获行业权威 赛事殊荣。（ 点击查看策略详情 ） 私募排排网数据显示，截至5月16日，连续5年分红的私募产品仅有14只， 「 融升稳健1号 」 以***%收益位列前5。 （ 点此查看收 益 ） 私募排排网数据显示，截至2024年底，5-20亿规模私募中，连续5年实现正收益的私募产品， 「 融升稳健1号 」 以***%收益位列 Top20 （ 点此查看收益 ） 融升基金始终以客户资本成长为己任。管理规模稳步提升的背后，是团队对每一份托付的极致专注。融升以科学 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the popularity of quantitative trading continues to rise amid increased activity in small-cap stocks and market volatility, with a significant number of quantitative funds showing positive returns [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Quantitative Funds - As of June 30, 2025, there are 1,258 quantitative funds with an average return of 4.72% and a median return of 3.74%, with 86.15% of these funds achieving positive returns [1]. - Among the three categories of public quantitative funds, active quantitative funds have the highest returns, with average and median returns of 7.5% and 5.91% respectively [1]. - Index-enhanced funds, while slightly lower in returns, have the highest proportion of positive returns at 92.09% [1]. Group 2: Top Performing Funds - The threshold for the top 10 index-enhanced quantitative funds is set at 18.77%, with all top 10 funds tracking small-cap stock indices [3]. - The top three funds in the index-enhanced category are managed by 创金合信基金, 招商基金, and 长盛基金 [3]. - The top-performing index-enhanced fund, 创金合信北证50成份指数增强A, achieved a return of 37.17% in the first half of 2025 [5]. Group 3: Active Quantitative Funds - The threshold for the top 10 active quantitative funds is the highest at 24.64%, with the top three funds managed by 诺安基金, 中加基金, and 汇安基金 [8]. - The leading active quantitative fund, 诺安多策略A, recorded a return of 40.62% [10]. - The second-ranked fund, 中加专精特新量化选股A, achieved a return of 35.55% [11]. Group 4: Quantitative Hedge Funds - The threshold for the top 10 quantitative hedge funds is 0.82%, with 中邮基金, 富国基金, and 申万菱信基金 managing the top three funds [12]. - 工银瑞信基金 has two funds listed among the top 10 [12].

机构：美股屡创新高之际空头仓位持续攀升 金十数据7月3日讯，华尔街空头仓位追踪机构S3 Partners最新研报显示，尽管美股年内经历25%暴跌后 强势反弹，标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数的空头仓位今年都在继续稳步上升。研究人员指出，这种与 上涨行情同步的空头加仓，可能反映投资者正采取"逆向策略"——逢高做空以对冲风险，或表达对复苏 可持续性的质疑。具体数据显示，标普500指数空头仓位占流通股比例已从年初的5.4%攀升至5.8%上 方，纳斯达克100指数空头比例更从不足5.2%扩大至约6.1%。值得注意的是，虽然标普500指数近期屡 创新高，但截至周三，年内累计涨幅仅6%，远逊于全球主要市场15%-20%的平均涨幅。S3特别强 调："全球主要股指中，仅少数表现逊于标普500指数，使其涨幅显著落后于全球均值。" ...

消息面上，中国人民银行于6月30日印发《贵金属和宝石从业机构反洗钱和反恐怖融资管理办法》，自 2025年8月1日起施行。相较于早前监管部门提出的贵金属行业反洗钱要求，本次《管理办法》从适用对 象、起点金额、客户尽职调查具体情形等方面进行明确规定，将贵金属和宝石全产业链都纳入反洗钱监 管。从变化来看，《管理办法》中，将提交大额交易报告的起点金额由5万元提升至10万元，数量庞大 的贵金属、宝石经营门店等也应被纳入其中。 黄金基金ETF（518800）跟踪的是黄金现货(Au99.99合约)，该指数直接关联国内高纯度（99.99%）实物 黄金的交易价格，反映黄金现货市场的实时行情，其价格走势与国际金价及人民币汇率高度相关，适合 注重资产保值、寻求风险分散或对冲通胀压力的投资者进行配置，值得关注。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 相关机构表示，近期中东局势有所缓和，不过区域和贸易冲突的风险仍然存在，特别是海外市场情绪较 好，已经完全修复了"对等关税"以来的跌幅，容易出现预期差。美股主要股指在Q2结束时恰好创下年 内新高，但涨幅集中于头部标的，罗素2000仍比前高低11%。Huang & Kilic (2019) 认为，黄金 ...

1～6月美元贬值10.7%，以半年为单位来看，与广场协议后的贬值幅度持平。在美国股市创出 新高、美国国债被回购的情况下，美元却在贬值。贬值的契机是特朗普的关税政策和美国财政隐忧，而 让贬值加剧的原因是…… 在外汇市场，美元的贬值仍未踩下刹车。1～6月美元的跌幅达到10%，以半年为单位来看，与广场协议 后的贬值幅度持平。美元贬值的契机是美国总统特朗普的高关税政策和美国财政隐忧，而美国以外投资 者的"汇率套期保值（汇率对冲）"则在加剧贬值趋势。 显示美元对主要货币的综合强弱的美元指数6月30日为96点左右。1～6月的降幅为10.7%。半年下跌超 过10%可以追溯到各国携手纠正美元升值的广场协议之后的局面和1991年美国经济低迷时期。如果仅限 于上半年，则是1971年尼克松冲击后美元处于贬值局面的1973年以来的首次。 在美国股市创出新高、美国国债被回购的情况下，美元却在贬值。其背景是通过金融衍生产品等降低汇 率风险的汇率对冲增加。 "认为特朗普关税将导致汇率波动率上升，因此从3月前后开始提高了对冲比率"，朝日生命保险的固定 收益投资部长河上和弘如此表示。 如果以美元资产进行投资，美元贬值时就会产生汇兑损失。通常会 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that overseas asset management institutions and pension funds are accelerating the construction of a firewall against a weakening dollar to mitigate the dual impact of exchange rate fluctuations on U.S. stock portfolios [1] - The traditional logic that "when U.S. stocks fall, the dollar strengthens to provide a buffer" has been challenged, particularly after the dollar index dropped 6.5% to a three-year low due to the Trump administration's global tariff policy [1] - Russell Investments revealed that about 10% of asset portfolios among pension clients in Europe and the UK have increased their hedging ratio for international stock investments, with some aggressive investors raising their risk coverage from 50% to 75% [1] Group 2 - BNP Paribas Asset Management is systematically reducing its dollar exposure by selling dollars through both equity and fixed income portfolios while building long positions in euros, yen, and Australian dollars [2] - Different institutions have varying judgments on dollar valuation; for instance, St. James's Place Capital has maintained its GBP hedging cap while reducing dollar hedging, believing the current dollar exchange rate is close to its long-term fair value [2] - The increase in hedging demand is driven by the widening cracks in asset risk correlation, as noted by Northern Trust's global currency management head [2] Group 3 - Data shows that the euro-hedged version of the MSCI U.S. Index achieved zero returns over the past 12 months, while the unhedged version plummeted by 8.3%, coinciding with a 13% drop in the dollar against the euro [3] - The volume of dollar forward contract sales has reached a four-year high, indicating that investors are opting to "vote with their feet" despite potential dollar rebounds from tariff policy fluctuations or geopolitical conflicts [3] - Asset managers are using foreign exchange derivatives as a core weapon in this currency defense strategy, employing forward contracts and options to build risk barriers against dollar depreciation [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to have a significant impact on the direction of the US dollar, with a potential for a stronger euro and other non-USD currencies if the data is weak [1][2][4] - Citigroup's global foreign exchange strategy team predicts that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.4% with only 85,000 new jobs added, which could trigger widespread selling of the dollar [1][5] - The report indicates that even if the non-farm data is weak, the dollar's decline may be limited due to high expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and pre-existing short positions on the dollar by leveraged funds [1][7] Group 2 - Citigroup maintains a bearish outlook on the dollar, emphasizing that the current market environment presents ongoing asymmetric risks for the dollar [2][4] - The report suggests that if the non-farm data aligns with Citigroup's predictions, the market's pricing for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve could increase significantly, potentially reaching a 50% probability [5][6] - The euro-to-dollar exchange rate is unlikely to break the 1.20 level without additional catalysts, as the unemployment rate is expected to rise and non-farm employment growth is projected to slow [6][9] Group 3 - Key factors limiting the euro's rise include the high threshold for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, market positioning with increased dollar short positions, and the upcoming Independence Day holiday which may lead to profit-taking [7][9] - Citigroup believes that for the euro to stabilize above 1.20, clearer signals are needed, such as the unemployment rate approaching 5% by year-end or adjustments in foreign exchange hedging ratios due to lower hedging costs [9]