[Table_Reportdate] 2025年11月28日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251128 重点推荐 财经要闻 ➢ 1.国家发改委：要注意防范重复度高的人形机器人产品"扎堆"上市 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.基数压力显现，行业亦有分化——国内观察：2025年10月工业企业利润数据 ➢ 2.10月挖掘机外销持续向好，龙头推进电动化全球化——机械设备行业简评 晨会纪要 1.重点推荐 1.1.基数压力显现，行业亦有分化——国内观察：2025 年 10 月工业企业利润数据 | 1. 重点推荐 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1. 基数压力显现，行业亦有分化——国内观察：2025 | 年 10 月工业企业利润数 | | | 据 | | 3 | ...

Core Insights - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 59,502.9 billion yuan from January to October, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with growth sustained for three consecutive months since August [1] Group 1: Profit Growth and Industry Performance - The operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.8% year-on-year, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [2] - Profit growth is notably driven by the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors, with equipment manufacturing profits rising by 7.8%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [3] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 8%, significantly outpacing the average profit growth of all industrial enterprises by 6.1 percentage points [4] Group 2: Enterprise Type Performance - State-owned enterprises' profits remained flat year-on-year, while joint-stock enterprises saw a profit increase of 1.5%, foreign and Hong Kong-Macau-Taiwan invested enterprises grew by 3.5%, and private enterprises experienced a profit growth of 1.9% [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Challenges - Industrial production activities remained active, with an industrial added value growth of 6.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the PPI for production materials both showed negative year-on-year growth, indicating ongoing pressure on industrial enterprise profits [5] - The accounts receivable for industrial enterprises stood at 27.69 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, while finished goods inventory rose by 3.7% to 6.82 trillion yuan, indicating challenges in sales collection and inventory reduction [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future profit trajectory for enterprises is expected to remain stable and positive, supported by demand and supply-side policies [6][8] - The recovery in industrial enterprise profits is attributed to export boosts and policy enhancements, although challenges remain due to slowing export growth and structural imbalances in supply and demand [7] - Analysts predict that the overall profit growth for industrial enterprises may continue to show positive growth for the year, with potential for the first annual profit increase in four years [9]

Profit Trends - In October, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, a significant drop from the previous value of 21.6%[6] - The decline in profit growth is attributed to a combination of falling production volumes and rising prices, alongside a decrease in profit margins[7] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in October was approximately 5.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from September, deviating from the typical seasonal increase observed in previous years[12] Sector Analysis - The mining sector experienced a revenue decline, with coal mining and non-metallic mineral extraction showing monthly revenue growth rates of -13.9% and -23.9%, respectively[20] - The beverage and alcohol manufacturing sector saw a profit growth rate of 3.0%, up 27.8 percentage points from the previous value, but the profit margin fell to 13.5%, down 4.8 percentage points[20] - Equipment manufacturing continues to lead in revenue growth and maintains a relatively high profit margin, benefiting from overseas expansion and supply chain restructuring[20] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in October showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, a slight improvement from September's decline of 2.3%[8] - Seasonal factors related to winter heating demand contributed to price increases in coal mining and processing, with prices rising by 1.6% and 0.8% respectively in October[20] - The overall industrial profit total for October was 577.1 billion yuan, marking a 103.1 billion yuan decrease from September, the lowest level for the same period since 2020[12] Future Outlook - Excluding base effects, there may be a marginal recovery in industrial enterprise profits in November and December, although the base effect could continue to exert downward pressure[21] - Factors such as prolonged holidays and trade tensions have impacted October's industrial profits, but these disturbances are expected to dissipate[21] Risk Factors - Potential risks include the possibility that domestic policy measures may not achieve the desired effects, and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations could arise[25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy attitude. Given the weakening economic fundamentals, interest rates are expected to remain low for a certain period. Mid - term bottom positions should be held, and new long positions can be gradually established on dips, with price intervals widened [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.盘面点评 - On Thursday, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. TS closed up, TF and T closed down, and TL remained flat. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.31%. Open - market reverse repurchase was 356.4 billion yuan, with a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan [1]. 3.2.重要资讯 - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 17 basis points to 7.0779, reaching the highest level since October 14, 2024. China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in October decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months. Vanke announced that it will hold a meeting to review matters related to bond extension [2]. 3.3.行情研判 - Today, Treasury bond futures showed weak fluctuations after a sharp decline, and the trading volume of the main contracts of each variety decreased significantly. In terms of data, industrial enterprise profits in October decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative growth rate of profits from January to October slowed down. The weakening economic fundamentals determine that interest rates need to remain low for a certain period. Operationally, mid - term bottom positions should be held, and new long positions can be gradually established on dips, with price intervals widened [3]. 3.4.国债期货日度数据 - **Price and price change**: TS2603 closed at 102.394, up 0.012; TF2603 closed at 105.78, down 0.005; T2603 closed at 107.905, down 0.05; TL2603 closed at 114.43, unchanged [4]. - **Position change**: TS contract positions decreased by 4,339 to 66,382; TF contract positions decreased by 15,019 to 146,639; T contract positions decreased by 27,648 to 237,119; TL contract positions decreased by 14,248 to 169,380 [4]. - **Base - spread change**: TS basis (CTD) increased by 0.0302 to - 0.0566; TF basis (CTD) increased by 0.1322 to 0.0093; T basis (CTD) increased by 0.1048 to 0.0632; TL basis (CTD) increased by 0.3829 to 0.6666 [4][5]. - **Trading volume change**: TS main contract trading volume decreased by 6,816 to 29,291; TF main contract trading volume decreased by 18,744 to 58,494; T main contract trading volume decreased by 34,131 to 75,691; TL main contract trading volume decreased by 40,220 to 99,298 [4][5].

Group 1: Profit Growth Analysis - Profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to October 2025 is 1.9%, down from 3.2% in the previous period[1] - The main reasons for the narrowing profit growth are the weakening low base effect and declining production[1] - Industrial production in October 2025 decreased by 4.9%, a drop of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: Price and Profit Margin Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slight improvement in October 2025, increasing by 0.1% compared to a decline of 2.1% in the previous month[1] - Profit margins slightly decreased to 5.25% from 5.26% in the previous month[1] - Mining industry profit margins improved slightly, while manufacturing and utility sectors saw a decline compared to September[1] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Dynamics - Weak demand has led to passive inventory accumulation, with inventory levels increasing by 6.82% in October 2025[1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell by 1.2 percentage points to 47.3% in October 2025, indicating contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Implications - Future profit trends are expected to stabilize after short-term fluctuations, supported by domestic demand expansion policies[2] - External demand and geopolitical risks will also influence future profit trajectories[2] - Equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors remain the main drivers of profit growth[1]

Core Insights - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [1] Textile Industry - The total profit of the textile industry amounted to 54.08 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.1% [1] - The total profit of the textile and apparel industry was 35.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 23.4% [1] - The leather, fur, feather, and related products and footwear industry reported a total profit of 31.02 billion yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year [1] Chemical Fiber Manufacturing - The chemical fiber manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 20.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1]

1—10月份，规模以上工业企业实现营业收入113.37万亿元，同比增长1.8%；发生营业成本97.00万亿 元，增长2.0%；营业收入利润率为5.25%，同比提高0.01个百分点。 10月末，规模以上工业企业资产总计187.23万亿元，同比增长4.7%；负债合计108.59万亿元，增长 5.0%；所有者权益合计78.64万亿元，增长4.3%；资产负债率为58.0%，同比上升0.2个百分点。 1—10月份，采矿业实现利润总额7123.3亿元，同比下降27.8%；制造业实现利润总额45050.3亿元，增 长7.7%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额7329.3亿元，增长9.5%。 1—10月份，主要行业利润情况如下：有色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润同比增长14.0%，电力、热力生 产和供应业增长13.1%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长12.8%，农副食品加工业增长8.5%， 电气机械和器材制造业增长7.0%，通用设备制造业增长6.2%，专用设备制造业增长5.0%，汽车制造业 增长4.4%，非金属矿物制品业增长1.0%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业同比由亏转盈，石油、煤炭及其 他燃料加工业同比减亏，化学 ...

Core Insights - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [1] Group 1: Overall Profit Performance - State-owned enterprises achieved a total profit of 18,490.2 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year [1] - Joint-stock enterprises reported a total profit of 44,328.3 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5% [1] - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises realized a total profit of 14,848.6 billion yuan, growing by 3.5% [1] - Private enterprises recorded a total profit of 16,995.6 billion yuan, up by 1.9% [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Profit Analysis - The mining industry saw a total profit of 7,123.3 billion yuan, a decline of 27.8% year-on-year [1] - The manufacturing sector achieved a total profit of 45,050.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.7% [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry reported a total profit of 7,329.3 billion yuan, increasing by 9.5% [1] Group 3: Major Industry Profit Changes - The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry experienced a profit increase of 14.0% [2] - The electricity and heat production and supply industry grew by 13.1% [2] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry saw a profit rise of 12.8% [2] - The agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 8.5% [2] - The automotive manufacturing industry grew by 4.4% [2] - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry turned from loss to profit, totaling 105.3 billion yuan [2] - The petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries reported a reduction in losses, while the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry declined by 5.4% [2]

1—10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%（按可比口径计算，详见附注二）。 1—10月份，采矿业实现利润总额7123.3亿元，同比下降27.8%；制造业实现利润总额45050.3亿元，增长7.7%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利 润总额7329.3亿元，增长9.5%。 1—10月份，主要行业利润情况如下：有色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润同比增长14.0%，电力、热力生产和供应业增长13.1%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备 制造业增长12.8%，农副食品加工业增长8.5%，电气机械和器材制造业增长7.0%，通用设备制造业增长6.2%，专用设备制造业增长5.0%，汽车制造业增长 4.4%，非金属矿物制品业增长1.0%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业同比由亏转盈，石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业同比减亏，化学原料和化学制品制造业下降 5.4%，纺织业下降6.1%，石油和天然气开采业下降12.5%，煤炭开采和洗选业下降49.2%。 1—10月份，规模以上工业企业实现营业收入113.37万亿元，同比增长1.8%；发生营业成本97.00万亿元，增长2.0%；营业收入利润率为5.25%，同比提 ...

Core Insights - Industrial enterprises in China experienced stable profit growth from January to October 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, marking three consecutive months of growth since August 2025 [2] - The mining sector saw a decline of 27.8%, although the drop was 1.5 percentage points less than the previous period; manufacturing grew by 7.7%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector increased by 9.5% [2] - In October, profits for industrial enterprises fell by 5.5% year-on-year due to a higher base from the previous year and rising financial costs [2] Revenue Growth - From January to October, the revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.8% year-on-year, contributing positively to the recovery of industrial profits [2] Equipment Manufacturing Sector - The profit of large-scale equipment manufacturing increased by 7.8% year-on-year, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector accounted for 38.5% of total profits in large-scale industrial enterprises, an increase of 2.0 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] - Among the eight major categories in equipment manufacturing, seven reported profit growth, with significant increases in the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and electronics sectors, achieving growth rates of 32.0% and 12.8% respectively [3] High-Tech Manufacturing Sector - High-tech manufacturing profits rose by 8.0% year-on-year, surpassing the average growth rate of large-scale industrial enterprises by 6.1 percentage points [3] - Notable growth was observed in smart electronics manufacturing, with profits from smart unmanned aerial vehicles and smart vehicle-mounted equipment increasing by 116.1% and 114.9% respectively [3] - The semiconductor manufacturing sector also showed strong performance, with profits in integrated circuit manufacturing, electronic specialty materials, and semiconductor discrete devices growing by 89.2%, 86.0%, and 17.4% respectively [3] Traditional Industries - Traditional industries demonstrated significant improvements, with profits notably exceeding the industry average [4] - In the raw materials sector, industries such as graphite and carbon products, biochemical pesticides, and cultural information chemicals saw profit increases of 77.7%, 73.4%, and 19.1% respectively, all surpassing their respective industry averages [4] - The chemical fiber, rubber, and plastic products sectors also reported strong profit growth, with bio-based chemical fiber and recycled rubber manufacturing increasing by 61.2% and 15.4% respectively [4]