Core Viewpoint - The report by Stephen King emphasizes the historical perspective on the rise and fall of reserve currencies, particularly focusing on the potential risks associated with the U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency under the Trump administration's policies [1][2][3]. Historical Perspective on Reserve Currency Decline - The report reviews the history of reserve currencies, indicating that issuing countries often sacrifice some economic sovereignty for international cooperation [5]. - Historical evidence suggests that negative policies designed to limit international currency use are more effective than positive interventions aimed at encouraging it [5]. - The collapse of the gold standard in the 1930s led to significant economic shocks, with the Federal Reserve setting low interest rates to meet international demand, resulting in a stock market bubble [7] [12]. Bretton Woods System and Its Collapse - Post-World War II, the dollar became the primary reserve currency, with the Bretton Woods system allowing dollar-to-gold convertibility [10]. - The system revealed weaknesses, as some countries benefited from fixed exchange rates while others faced crises [10]. - The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked a significant shift, with the U.S. abandoning gold convertibility, leading to financial turmoil in the 1970s [12][14]. Trump Administration's Attitude Towards the Dollar - The report highlights that the Trump administration's concerns about the dollar's reserve status may pose a greater risk than its tariff policies [17]. - Some members of the administration believe the dollar is "overvalued" and propose measures to redefine its role, including sanctions and encouraging other countries to restructure their U.S. asset holdings [21]. - The potential for the U.S. to withdraw from its role as the world's "lender of last resort" could lead to a significant shift towards gold, resulting in liquidity shortages and financial instability [23]. Future Predictions and Risks - King predicts that if the U.S. neglects international institutions, their credibility will suffer, and the transition to a new reserve currency will be challenging [22][23]. - Emerging economies may adopt a "safety first" approach to balance their international accounts, potentially leading to a decline in global demand [24]. - The report warns that if the dollar loses its trust as a reserve currency, it could trigger a massive shift towards gold, reminiscent of the financial turmoil seen in the 1930s and 1970s [23].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Stephen King from HSBC highlights the historical perspective on the rise and fall of reserve currencies, particularly focusing on the potential risks associated with the U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency under the Trump administration's policies [1][22]. Historical Perspective on Reserve Currency Decline - The report reviews the history of reserve currencies, indicating that the issuing country often sacrifices some economic sovereignty for international cooperation [3][22]. - Historical evidence suggests that negative policies designed to limit a currency's international use are more effective than positive interventions aimed at encouraging it [3]. - The collapse of the gold standard in the 1930s caused significant economic turmoil, with the Federal Reserve setting low interest rates that led to a stock market bubble [3][9]. Bretton Woods System and Dollar Resurgence - Post-World War II, the dollar emerged as the primary reserve currency, established during the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, where the dollar was pegged to gold [6][9]. - The Bretton Woods system revealed weaknesses, as some countries benefited from fixed exchange rates while others faced competitiveness issues and financing crises [6]. - The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, marked by Nixon's policies, led to significant financial instability and volatility in asset prices [9][12]. Trump Administration's Impact on Dollar's Reserve Status - The Trump administration's approach to the dollar's reserve status may pose greater risks than its tariff policies [22]. - Concerns have been raised that the U.S. government views the dollar as "overvalued" and may implement measures to redefine its role as a reserve currency [25]. - Potential measures include sanctions against countries holding dollar assets that conflict with U.S. interests and encouraging other nations to restructure their U.S. asset holdings [25][26]. Future Predictions and Risks - If the U.S. attempts to reclaim control over the dollar, it could lead to a significant shift towards gold, resulting in severe liquidity shortages and potential financial turmoil similar to the 1930s or 1970s [27][30]. - The report predicts that emerging economies may adopt a "safety first" approach to balance their international accounts, potentially leading to a decline in global demand [30].

Core Viewpoint - The decision to store a portion of China's gold reserves in the underground vaults of Manhattan, New York, rather than repatriating them, raises questions about security and trust in the context of U.S.-China relations [1][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - After World War II, the U.S. established the Bretton Woods system, linking the dollar to gold, which solidified the dollar's dominance in the international monetary system [1]. - In the 1980s, China engaged in reform and opening-up policies, deepening economic and political ties with the U.S. during a period of favorable relations [1]. Group 2: Strategic Considerations - China purchased over 600 tons of gold from countries like South Africa and Australia, storing it in the U.S. for two main reasons: the high security of the vaults and to build trust with the U.S. to attract American investment [3][4]. - The decision to store gold in the U.S. was strategically significant during a time of friendly U.S.-China relations, facilitating economic development in China [4]. Group 3: Current Situation and Concerns - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to concerns about the safety of China's gold reserves in the U.S., especially after incidents like the U.S. seizing Russian assets [4]. - However, the impact of the stored gold is minimal, as it constitutes only about 3% of China's foreign exchange reserves, and the economic interdependence between China and the U.S. serves as a deterrent against potential confiscation [4][5]. - Many countries are reconsidering their gold storage in the U.S., but China's decision is based on historical context and current national interests, with sufficient strength to handle potential changes [5].

黄金作为一种稀有贵金属，以其特有的价值，很久以来都一直充当着硬通货的角色。无论是对于一个民 族，一个国家，甚至于一个人来说，黄金的价值都是无可替代的极其重要。 截止到2013年，世界上已经开采的黄金总量大约为171300吨，其中被世界各国用作战略储备的不足4万 吨。这么一大笔财富，对任何一个国家而言，它的战略意义和安全意义都是不言而喻的。 二战爆发后，美国人依葫芦画瓢，继续赚取巨额的外汇收入，大量黄金也就顺势流入到美国境内。若不 是小日本自不量力的偷袭珍珠港，美国人也不会过早地参加二战。 1944年7月，在二战即将结束前，国际社会44个国家和地区的代表，在美国的布雷顿森林召开全球经济 会议，各与会国最终达成协议，美元与黄金挂钩，当时规定35美元兑换1盎司的黄金。各国货币不直接 兑换黄金，而与美元挂钩，汇率继续保持固定不变。 二战结束之后没多久，在丘吉尔的铁幕演说下，紧接着冷战就爆发了。于是，联邦德国就成了对抗苏联 的最前线，完全性顿时显得非常严峻。 为了保护好自己的黄金储备，西德人只好把一半左右的黄金，统统运到了大洋彼岸的美国，由他们代为 保管。这是美国第一次开始替他国保管大额的黄金储备，西德之后，好多国家也 ...

Group 1 - China's gold imports are significantly increasing, with a growth rate exceeding 71% compared to Switzerland [1] - The China Export-Import Bank has quietly signed a 100 billion RMB loan agreement with Saudi Arabia, raising questions about Saudi Arabia's sudden need for borrowing [1][12] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has expressed concerns over China's substantial gold purchases [1][10] Group 2 - Gold is recognized as a universal currency with enduring value, maintaining its status even during economic downturns like the COVID-19 pandemic [3] - Historically, gold has transitioned from being a royal asset to a widely used commodity, especially during the gold standard era in the 19th century [5] - The Bretton Woods Agreement established a new international monetary system linking currencies to the U.S. dollar, which was backed by gold [6][8] Group 3 - The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. has been deteriorating, as evidenced by Saudi Arabia's recent decision to cut oil production despite U.S. pressure [19][21] - Saudi Arabia is seeking to diversify its partnerships, moving towards China and Russia, and reducing reliance on the U.S. [25][27] - The recent loan agreement with China is seen as a strategic move for Saudi Arabia to strengthen its economic position and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar [27][28] Group 4 - The U.S. is facing economic challenges, including rising inflation and unemployment, while simultaneously trying to maintain its global influence [31][28] - Countries are increasingly moving away from the U.S. dollar, with many adopting the Chinese yuan for trade settlements [33] - China's strategy of accumulating gold reserves is aimed at stabilizing its economy and enhancing the international standing of the yuan [33][35]

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： David_Pan 来源：雪球 雪球三分法是雪球基于"长期投资+资产配置"推出的基金配置理念，通过资产分散、市场分散、时机分散 这三大分散进行基金长期投资，从而实现投资收益来源多元化和风险分散化。 | 1本投资好书，0元包邮到家 | | --- | | 7天系统课程,搭建投资框架 | | 市场深度解析,投资机会早知道 | | 高手社群交流,扫平投资认知差 | 要知道 ， 市场公认各国央行增持是本轮黄金上涨的重要推手 ， 而其中最大的中国央行暂停增持 ， 无疑会对黄金的上涨逻辑形成重大打击 。 由于历史上中国央行每轮增持黄金 ， 无一例外均 出现了黄金的大涨 ， 因此市场中有一部分很聪明的资金是紧盯着中国央行做黄金 ， 央行买他就 买 ， 央行不买他就卖 ， 这部分资金可谓从无败绩 ， 我们为什么敢于去接盘呢 ？ 先回顾上一轮央行停止增持黄金的影响 。 央行上一轮自2022年11月开始增持黄金 ， 起初黄金 价格只是温和上涨 ， 但进入2024年后黄金突然加速上涨 ， 至6月初年内涨幅就高达到15% 。 ...

围绕日美关税谈判，美国财长贝森特表示"没有寻求特定货币目标的想法"，虽然通过货币协定等进 行外汇干预的可能性降低，但特朗普提出的纠正美元升值的方针并没有改变的迹象。日美的关税谈 判也仍然面临艰难的前景…… 美国财政部长贝森特4月23日表示，在围绕关税的日美谈判中，"没有寻求特定货币目标的想法"。虽然 通过货币协定等进行外汇干预的可能性降低，但美国总统特朗普所提出的纠正美元升值的方针并没有改 变的迹象。关于日美关税谈判，美方明确表现出将贸易不均衡视为问题、优先削减贸易逆差的态度。 日本财务相加藤胜信24日（日本时间25日凌晨）在华盛顿与贝森特举行了会谈。 在此之前的23日，贝森特在与日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）等面向部分媒体进行答疑时表示， 不会为汇率水平设置目标，强行诱导美元贬值、日元升值。当被问及是否意味着不会向日本寻求特定 的"货币协定"或"货币目标"时，他回答"正是如此"。 贝森特还表示："希望日本尊重七国集团（G7）的协议"。2017年5月的G7协议提出："所有国家都不进 行竞争性货币贬值" 。 特朗普政府一直将高关税政策作为纠正贸易不均衡的手段。但4月9日启动大规模对等关税举措以后，在 金融市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing a significant surge in gold prices, with the sentiment reaching a boiling point, as evidenced by a 9.5% increase in the A-share precious metals index and multiple gold-related ETFs hitting their daily limit [1] Price Movement and Predictions - International gold prices have rebounded sharply after a three-day decline in early April, reaching a peak of $3442 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 30%. Predictions from major banks suggest potential further increases, with Morgan Stanley's forecast of $3400 already met, and Citigroup's $3500 within reach, while Goldman Sachs anticipates a rise to $4000 [3] Comparative Asset Performance - Gold has emerged as the only major asset class to reach new highs following tariff impacts. A comparative analysis of various assets shows that gold has outperformed others, with a 62% increase over the past year, while other assets like stocks and real estate have seen declines [4] Economic Context and Dollar Weakness - The primary driver behind gold's surge is the weakening of the dollar's credibility, which has enhanced gold's monetary attributes. As concerns grow over U.S. Treasury bonds, gold is increasingly viewed as a substitute reserve currency [4][5] Federal Reserve and Market Sentiment - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on economic uncertainty due to tariff policies have heightened market concerns, leading to a decline in risk appetite and further selling of U.S. assets, including the dollar and U.S. stocks [5][6] Historical Context of Dollar Crisis - The current situation can be viewed as the third dollar crisis, with historical precedents dating back to the Bretton Woods system, which established the dollar's role as the central currency linked to gold [7][8][9] Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The expansion of U.S. debt and ongoing central bank gold purchases suggest that gold prices may continue to rise. The current U.S. debt level of $36.2 trillion indicates a potential gold price of $3780 per ounce if historical ratios hold [14][15]

Group 1 - The importance of gold as a non-debt monetary asset and a cornerstone for economic security is emphasized, with most countries maintaining gold reserves [1] - Historical context shows that during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, South Korea relied on gold donations from citizens to repay foreign debts and stabilize the economy [3] Group 2 - As of April 2025, the United States holds over 8,133 tons of gold, accounting for approximately 20% of global official reserves, attributed to historical wealth accumulation and the Bretton Woods system [5][9] - The U.S. gained a significant amount of gold during the World Wars, establishing a dominant position in global gold reserves [7] - The Bretton Woods system linked the dollar to gold, further solidifying the U.S. as a global gold repository, which continues to influence international finance [9][11] Group 3 - Russia's gold reserves are approximately 2,350 tons as of 2023, with a total of $6,558 billion in gold and foreign exchange by April 2025, driven by rich mineral resources and increased mining investments [13][15] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly sanctions from the U.S. during the Ukraine conflict, has made gold reserves crucial for Russia's economic resilience [15][17] Group 4 - China's official gold reserves stand at about 2,292.33 tons, representing around 5.7% of global reserves, with growth supported by domestic production and strategic market participation [19][21] - Increasing gold reserves is seen as a means for China to enhance financial stability and assert greater influence in the global financial system [21][23] Group 5 - The competition for gold reserves among countries is expected to intensify due to the economic downturn, highlighting gold's role as a strategic resource for economic security and financial stability [23]

Core Viewpoint - In the current macroeconomic environment characterized by high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, the value of gold as a hedge against dollar risk is strengthening, highlighting an important marginal change for gold prices [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - The establishment and eventual collapse of the gold standard were influenced by the scarcity of gold and its perception as a symbol of wealth, leading to its natural monetary attributes [2]. - The collapse of the gold standard was accelerated by World War I, which resulted in high deficits and inflation, causing countries to restrict gold convertibility [2]. - The transition from the gold standard to the Bretton Woods system marked a significant shift, where the U.S. emerged as the primary beneficiary, but the system faced challenges due to the over-issuance of dollars and insufficient gold reserves [3][6]. Group 2: Evolution of the Global Monetary System - The formation of the Jamaica system in 1976 transitioned the international monetary system from a gold anchor to a credit anchor, allowing for floating exchange rates and decoupling currencies from gold [8]. - The U.S. remains the core of the global monetary system, with the Jamaica system creating a dollar circulation system contrary to the Bretton Woods framework [8]. Group 3: Current Macroeconomic Environment - The U.S. economy is currently facing challenges that affect the global monetary system, including high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, leading to a complex interplay between fiscal, economic, and monetary policies [12]. - The demand for digital currencies and gold is increasing among global central banks as they navigate these challenges [12]. Group 4: Gold's Value in the Current Monetary System - While gold cannot replace the dollar, it serves as an important asset for hedging against dollar risks, particularly in light of long-term inflation risks and concerns over U.S. policy [15]. - The attributes of gold, including its anti-inflation, safe-haven, and credit properties, are becoming increasingly influential on gold prices, alongside the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [15].