Macro Economic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% this week, with the asset allocation sequence favoring stocks over commodities, bonds, and cash [1][4] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to stabilize investment and address the "price stagnation" issue, highlighting fixed asset investment as a core solution [3][22] Asset Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.95%, while the Shanghai 300 stock index futures rose by 2.46%. In contrast, coking coal futures fell by 0.72% and iron ore contracts decreased by 0.06% [2][13] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao increased by 1 basis point to 1.04%, and the ten-year government bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.84% [2][46] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains the asset allocation order as stocks > commodities > bonds > cash, with a focus on the implementation of incremental policies [3][4] - The report suggests that the demand for fixed investment remains crucial in addressing the issue of "price stagnation," with real estate investment continuing to drag down fixed asset investment performance [3][24] Sector Insights - The report highlights that the industrial product prices are influenced by fluctuations in international commodity prices and domestic investment shortfalls, particularly in the coal mining and washing industry [3][28] - The automotive sector is noted for a decline in wholesale and retail sales, with a year-on-year drop of 9% and 11% respectively, indicating a potential for recovery driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [38][44] Key Economic Indicators - The report mentions that the GDP for 2024 was finalized at 13,480.66 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year [6][26] - The report also tracks high-frequency data, indicating a decrease in the operating rates of major steel mills and a decline in social inventory of construction materials [28][29]

财政部有关负责人在解读《意见》时表示，财政部指导融担基金发挥体系引领作用，凝聚1500余家担保 机构力量，累计再担保合作业务规模超过6.7万亿元，年均增长约40%，合作机构平均担保费率降至1% 以下，小微企业综合融资成本降至5%以下。 近日，财政部等四部门发布《关于进一步发挥政府性融资担保体系作用 加力支持就业创业的指导意 见》（下称《意见》），核心内容是引导政府性融资担保加大对就业的贡献力度，从而稳就业、扩内 需。 小微企业是吸纳和拉动就业的主力军，部分小微企业有效抵质押物较少、资信较弱，出现融资难、融资 贵等问题。而政府性融资担保具有"增信、分险、中介"重要功能，是助力小微企业融资发展的重要政策 工具，也发挥了重要作用。 【#万亿级政府融资担保支持稳就业#：#1亿担保可稳就业800人#】就业是最基本民生，中国在万亿级政 府融资担保资源分配方面将更多地考虑稳就业因素。 "在服务就业方面，据融资担保行业估算，每提供1亿元担保可稳定就业超过800人。财政部指导融担基 金优化业务结构，引领体系加力支持劳动密集型企业，融担基金累计服务小微企业等经营主体超过570 万户次，稳定就业约5900万人次。"上述负责人称。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Urban and Rural Residents Income Increase Plan" emphasizes a systematic approach to income growth, focusing on reducing urban-rural disparities and improving income distribution through institutional arrangements, responding to the current demand for expanding domestic consumption and promoting spending [1][2]. Policy Signals - The shift from "promoting resident income growth" to a concrete "income increase plan" indicates a transition from abstract goals to actionable policies, highlighting a stronger execution orientation and accountability [2]. - The explicit mention of "urban and rural residents" reflects a comprehensive consideration of income structure, moving the focus from merely increasing average income to addressing income inequality and ensuring shared development outcomes [2]. Relationship Between Income Increase and Domestic Demand - There is an intrinsic consistency between "resident income increase" and "expanding domestic demand," where income levels directly influence consumption patterns and willingness [3]. - Enhancing income is fundamental for sustainable domestic demand, as it creates a self-reinforcing cycle of income, consumption, employment, and further income [3][4]. Implementation Strategies - The income increase plan requires a coordinated approach across various policies, including employment, income distribution, fiscal, social security, financial, and regional policies [6][7]. - Employment policies should focus on stabilizing and expanding job opportunities, particularly in labor-intensive and modern service sectors, while ensuring job stability through regular support measures [6]. - Income distribution policies must enhance labor remuneration's share in initial distribution, improve minimum wage standards, and ensure that wage growth aligns with productivity [6][7]. Pathways for Income Increase - Increasing wage income through targeted industrial policies that direct resources to sectors with high employment potential, while ensuring wage growth mechanisms are in place [8]. - Enhancing human capital returns through vocational training aligned with industry needs, particularly for low-skilled workers and those in transition [9]. - Improving operational and property income by reforming land use policies and optimizing the business environment for small enterprises [9]. - Strengthening social security systems to provide a safety net for low-income groups, thereby indirectly increasing disposable income and consumption capacity [10].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 熊园观察 国盛证券首席经济学家，熊园 博士 国盛证券宏观分析师，朱慧 事件：近期各部门各地陆续学习中央经济工作会议精神，并结合各部门职能定位和各地实际细化落实， 中财办也接受采访解读会议精神。 核心观点：各部委各地学习传达中央经济工作会议精神，是跟踪会议精神落地的重要窗口，会"披露"更 多细节和工作抓手。总体看，有不少亮点、新提法和增量信息，包括：靠前发力，拿出更多实招硬招， 持续讲好"股市叙事"，合理加快资金下达拨付，继续支持"两新"，培育万亿级消费新增长点，加大消费 基建和民生类投资，靠前实施"十五五"重大项目，各级各类规划都要追求"实实在在、没有水分"的增长 等。继续提示，2026年政策大基调已确定，多部门也已部署政策靠前发力、确保年初"开门红"，短期重 点关注：1）2026年"以旧换新"、重大项目的"吹风"与部署，各地重大项目可能的早开工、早建设，各 地稳地产的举措、尤其是北上深等一线城市（北京于12.24放松限购）；2）财政节奏大概率前置，可能 的包括加快财政支出进度、提前下达一批消费"国补"额度、延续消费贴息，加快专项债发行 ...

来源：熊园-国盛证券首席经济学家 国盛证券宏观分析师，朱慧 事件：近期各部门各地陆续学习中央经济工作会议精神，并结合各部门职能定位和各地实际细化落实，中财办也接受采访解读会议精神。 核心观点：各部委各地学习传达中央经济工作会议精神，是跟踪会议精神落地的重要窗口，会"披露"更多细节和工作抓手。总体看，有不少亮点、新提法 和增量信息，包括：靠前发力，拿出更多实招硬招，持续讲好"股市叙事"，合理加快资金下达拨付，继续支持"两新"，培育万亿级消费新增长点，加大消 费基建和民生类投资，靠前实施"十五五"重大项目，各级各类规划都要追求"实实在在、没有水分"的增长等。继续提示，2026年政策大基调已确定，多部 门也已部署政策靠前发力、确保年初"开门红"，短期重点关注：1）2026年"以旧换新"、重大项目的"吹风"与部署，各地重大项目可能的早开工、早建 设，各地稳地产的举措、尤其是北上深等一线城市（北京于12.24放松限购）；2）财政节奏大概率前置，可能的包括加快财政支出进度、提前下达一批消 费"国补"额度、延续消费贴息，加快专项债发行、并优化投向等；3）央行一季度可能的降准降息，推出更多结构性工具；4）2026年1月地方两 ...

Group 1: Policy Implementation - Various departments are refining their implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit, focusing on "stability while seeking progress" and "quality improvement" as the main themes[3] - Emphasis on accelerating the disbursement of funds and implementing major projects ahead of schedule to ensure a strong start in 2026[2] - The central government plans to maintain a necessary fiscal deficit and debt scale, with the overall fiscal deficit expected to be similar to that of 2025[4] Group 2: Economic Growth Strategies - Aiming to cultivate new consumption growth points worth trillions, with increased investment in consumer infrastructure and social welfare projects[6] - The government is focusing on expanding domestic demand, supporting "two new" and "two heavy" projects, and implementing the "15th Five-Year Plan" major projects[6] - The central bank may consider lowering reserve requirements and interest rates in the first quarter of 2026 to stimulate economic activity[2] Group 3: Risk Management and Market Stability - A commitment to prevent financial risks, ensuring that no major defaults occur, particularly in the real estate sector[10] - The government is taking measures to stabilize the real estate market while balancing the needs of residents and property companies[10] - Continuous efforts to promote the stock market narrative and attract long-term investments, including reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and commercial real estate REITs pilot programs[10]

扩内需：食品饮料行业投资机会 20151223 摘要 食品饮料行业迎来系统性机会，科技企业涨薪与中央经济工作会议精神 相符，城乡居民增收计划及新增长点打造将利好消费。 白酒行业深度调整，2025 年进入杀 EPS 阶段，扩内需政策有望加速筑 底，高端白酒如茅台、老窖及调整后的汾酒、洋河值得关注。 乳制品行业供需调整完成，生育和增收政策催化需求，奶粉和液态奶需 求预计增加，关注伊利、新乳业等盈利复苏机会。 休闲食品受益于口红效应、新渠道及健康化趋势，居民增收政策推动回 暖，推荐盐津铺子、卫龙、万辰食品和洽洽食品。 饮料赛道健康化趋势明显，非现饮渠道占比增加，东鹏饮料等高成长公 司值得关注，其"补水啦"有望成为第二增长极。 成本波动影响大众品企业业绩，葵花籽种植面积恢复，瓜子成本下降， 洽洽食品毛利率有望修复；魔芋精粉价格高位，卫龙、盐津成本压力有 望缓解。 创新驱动型公司通过产品和渠道创新推动增长，农夫山泉、立高、卫龙、 新乳业和统一值得关注；高效供应链管理对企业至关重要，东鹏表现突 出。 Q&A 2026 年中央经济工作会议对食品饮料行业的影响如何？ 2026 年中央经济工作会议将扩内需作为首要任务，预计会出 ...

北京商报讯（记者 翟枫瑞）12月24日，装修建材板块小幅增长，以16406.45点收盘，涨幅为0.85%。在 板块带动下，多只装修建材股股价实现增长。濮耐股份以6.05元/股收盘，涨幅为5.58%，领涨装修建材 股。*ST松发以85.01元/股收盘，涨幅为5.00%，涨幅位列装修建材股第二。*ST亚振以40.95元/股收盘， 涨幅为5.00%，涨幅位列装修建材股第三。除此之外，皮阿诺以21.88元/股收盘，跌幅为4.04%，领跌装 修建材股。瑞泰科技以18.85元/股收盘，跌幅为2.94%，跌幅位列装修建材股第二。恒林股份以32.16元/ 股收盘，跌幅为1.05%，跌幅位列装修建材股第三。 中国银河在研报中表示，消费、投资共同发力扩内需，消费升级推动建材高品质转型。消费端，中央经 济工作会议提到，2026年要"深入实施提振消费专项行动，清理消费领域不合理限制措施"，与十五五规 划建议稿中提到的"清理汽车、住房等消费不合理"相呼应，预计26年各地区居民住房限购政策将逐步放 开，家装市场回暖预期增强，有望带动消费建材需求恢复。 ...

在12月23日举行的国务院新闻发布会上，交通运输部副部长李扬等负责人介绍了相关情况。 2025年我国交通固定资产投资预计超3.6万亿元，保持高位运行；完成营业性货运量超580亿吨，同比增 长约3.5%，港口外贸集装箱吞吐量增长约9.6%，国际航空货运增长20%。服务能力稳步提升，全社会跨 区域人员流动量预计超660亿人次，54个城市轨道交通运营里程超1.1万公里，日均客运量超9000万人 次，枢纽机场轨道交通接入率达83.3%。 这些数据背后，是交通运输以重大工程牵引投资、以设备更新撬动消费、以服务升级拓展内需的深度实 践。 "十五五"开局之年，交通运输如何更好服务促消费、扩内需？ 这些项目共同构成了"十五五"现代化综合交通运输体系的骨架，它们不仅在建设期创造大量投资与就 业，更将在运营期通过降本增效、拓展市场、激活产业，持续为促消费、扩内需提供稳固支撑。 此外，现代化交通基础设施体系建设也将加速。推进跨区域跨流域大通道建设，加快贯通国家综合立体 交通网"6轴7廊8通道"主骨架；实施内河水运体系联通工程，加快形成由"八纵八横"高速铁路主通道为 骨架、区域性高速铁路衔接的高速铁路网；实施新一轮农村公路提升行动。 ...

中新网成都12月23日电(单鹏)四川省委经济工作会议23日在成都召开。会议部署了四川明年经济工作六 个方面的重点任务。其中，扩大有效需求、拓展内需增长新空间被列为首要任务。 "内需是中国经济发展的根本动力，扩内需是当前稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期的必然要求。"西南 财经大学中国西部经济研究院教授朱雨可接受采访时谈道。 扩内需，关键要把促消费和扩投资有效统筹起来。其中，促消费是扩内需的重中之重。四川拥有广阔消 费市场和消费升级潜力，通过稳定传统消费、培育新型消费，大力发展数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费 等新增长点，能够让消费更好发挥对经济增长的基础性作用。 能源汽车展台人气旺。 记者 张浪 摄 在创新消费业态的同时，会议还指出要大力促进服务消费，扩大医疗健康、养老托育、居住服务等领域 服务供给，特别是要推动文旅深度融合发展。 当前，四川省消费市场提质扩容还有很大空间。会议指出，明年四川要进一步优化政策供给，深入实施 提振消费专项行动。 图为第二十八届成都国际汽车展览会期间，国产新 今年以来，以旧换新政策在四川消费市场持续显效发力。四川省统计局数据显示，今年前三季度，在以 旧换新政策加力扩围带动下，四川省限额以上 ...