文/ 国盛证券首席经济学家 熊园 ， 国盛证券宏观分析师 朱慧 按惯例，4月底将召开经济工作相关的政治局会议，基于一季度经济表现、对等关税进展，近期总理座 谈会、国常会、国新办发布会等系列会议，我们有4点前瞻： 按 惯 例 ， 4 月 底 将 召 开 经 济 工 作 相 关 的 政 治 局 会 议 ， 基 于 一 季 度 经 济 表 现 、 对 等 关 税 进 展 。 本 文前 瞻 认 为 ，会 议总 基 调应 会 更 加 积 极 、 更 加 扩 张、应会有"真金白银"（实际规模与节奏相机抉择），立足当下、着眼长 远 ， 全 力 " 稳 预 期 、 稳 增 长 、 稳 外 贸 、 稳 就 业 、 稳 股 市 、 稳 楼 市 " 等 各 种"稳"，应会加力推动既定的存量政策落地，也应会推出一批增量政策， 尤其是"更大力度的中央加杠杆、更持续的稳股市稳楼市、更精准的扩内 需促消费、更大范围的扩开放、更针对性的强产业促改革"等。 前瞻1 经济形势上，应会肯定一季度经济起步平稳、开局良好、延续回升向好态势，但应也会直面困难，着重 强调"今年的形势比较特殊"，包括外部环境更趋严峻复杂、外部冲击对我国经济平稳运行造成一定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of long-term special government bonds in China, amounting to 1.3 trillion yuan, is aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, thereby strengthening the domestic economic cycle [2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - This year, China will issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special government bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to last year [2]. - The first issuance will focus on 20-year and 30-year bonds, starting on April 24 [2]. - Of the total, 800 billion yuan will support "two major" projects, while 500 billion yuan will be allocated to expand the "two new" policies [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The early disclosure of bond issuance plans and rapid financing is intended to enhance expectations for economic improvement and stimulate consumption [2]. - In the first quarter, supported by the "two new" and "two major" policies, related consumer goods experienced double-digit growth, indicating progress in expanding domestic demand [2]. Group 3: Role of Government Bonds - Long-term special government bonds will enable more fiscal funds to promote consumption and expand domestic demand, converting private savings into effective demand to support economic growth [3]. - These bonds will also provide greater support for technological innovation and industrial development in "two major" construction projects, laying a solid foundation for high-quality development [3]. Group 4: Market Implications - The issuance of long-term special government bonds will increase the supply of safe assets in the market, alleviating the "asset shortage" issue in a low-interest-rate environment [3]. - China's government bonds, as high-grade securities, have the potential to become significant global safe assets, attracting international investors [3]. - As of April 15, foreign institutions have increased their holdings of Chinese bonds by over 270 billion yuan, reflecting a positive attitude towards the Chinese bond market [3].

在4月7日暴跌之时，汇金、中国诚通、中国国新纷纷出手增持中国股票资产，坚决维护资 本市场平稳运行。并将持续大额增持央国企股票和科技创新类股票。 4月8日， 中国电科坚定看好资本市场 ， 增持回购旗下上市公司股票。 继 昨 天 大 跌 后 ， 今 日 A 股 三 大 指 数 集 体 上 涨 ， 截 至 收 盘 ， 沪 指 涨 1.58% ， 深 成 指 涨 0 . 6 4%，创业板指涨1.83%，北证5 0指数涨4.73%。全市场成交额16532亿元，较上日放 量3 52亿元； 融资余额减少477亿，融资盘是本轮最大的恐慌盘。 盘面上，农业板块持续走强，秋乐种业等20余股涨停，转内销的零售商业百货，食品，白 酒，旅游等大涨。下跌方面，苹果概念股延续跌势，歌尔股份连续3个交易日跌停。 反制概念大涨，其主要是 美国发布所谓"对等关税"细则之后，遭到全球多个国家的反对 和批评，我国也在第一时间做出反击，推出关税反制细则，迅速有效的维护了自身权益。 在我们强硬反制之后，A股国家队护盘机制快速启动！ 正如国际货币基金组织（IMF）评价：中国此次反制重新定义了大国博弈的速度与深度， 为全球贸易治理提供了新范式。 0 1 国 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a rebound after a significant drop, with major indices showing gains, driven by strong government intervention and market confidence restoration efforts [1][2][3]. Market Performance - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.83%, with total market turnover reaching 1.6532 trillion yuan, an increase of 35.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The financing balance decreased by 47.7 billion yuan, indicating a significant panic selling in the financing market [1]. Sector Performance - The agricultural sector continued to strengthen, with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while retail, food, liquor, and tourism sectors also saw substantial gains [1]. - Conversely, Apple-related stocks continued to decline, with GoerTek experiencing three consecutive days of limit down [1]. Government and Institutional Actions - Following the market drop, the "national team" initiated protective measures, with major state-owned enterprises and funds actively increasing their stock holdings to stabilize the market [3][4]. - On April 8, multiple state-owned enterprises announced stock repurchase and increase plans, with total investment exceeding 10 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in the market's future [4][5]. - The National Social Security Fund also expressed its commitment to long-term and value investing, actively increasing its domestic stock holdings [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a liquidity boost from potential reserve requirement ratio cuts by the central bank, releasing approximately 1.5 trillion yuan [7]. - The government's countermeasures against trade tensions are anticipated to create conditions for market sentiment recovery [8]. - Historical data suggests that after a drop exceeding 5%, the market has a 78% probability of rebounding within a month, with an average increase of 12% [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - Current valuations in the A-share market are at attractive levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-earnings ratio at 14 times, indicating a significant discount compared to historical averages [10]. - Key sectors to focus on include agriculture, rare earths, and technology, which are expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [10][11].