Report Summary 1. Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 40, 2025 [2] 2. Researcher and Report Date - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification Number: F3083989, Investment Consultation Number: Z0018635 - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [3] 3. Key Data New Special Bond - This week's new special bond issuance was 16 billion yuan, a decrease of 133.6 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week's planned issuance is 0 billion yuan. As of October 5, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.6%. In September, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 413.1 billion yuan [4]. New General Bond - This week's new general bond issuance was 9.9 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week's planned issuance is 0 billion yuan. As of October 5, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0% [5][7]. Local Bond Net Financing - This week's local bond net financing scale was 63.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.3 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week's net financing is expected to be about -24.6 billion yuan. As of October 5, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6% [10]. Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week's treasury bond net financing scale was 0 billion yuan, an increase of 144.1 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week's net financing is expected to be about 184.4 billion yuan. As of October 5, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 80.6% [15]. 4. Data Sources - Wind, iFinD, CITIC Futures Research Institute, updated to October 5, 2025 [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The capital market in September 2025 tightened slightly compared to August, but the tightening amplitude was limited compared to the historical average. The central bank's net capital injection was relatively high, and the capital stratification pressure remained low. In October, the capital market may maintain a marginal tightening trend, with the capital center likely to remain stable or rise slightly [2][6] 9 - Month Review: Marginal Tightening Compared to August - **Capital Rate Central Uplift**: In September, the central points of various - term capital rates increased slightly. The operating central points of DR001, DR007, and DR014 rose by 4bp, 1bp, and 3bp respectively. The upward deviation of DR007 from the OMO 7 - day rate widened slightly to 9bp [2][12] - **Limited Tightening Compared to History**: Historically, the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate in September usually widens compared to August. However, in 2025, the tightening amplitude of the capital rate was lower than the historical average since 2016 [2][17] - **High Central Bank Net Investment**: As of the 28th, the central bank's net capital injection in September reached 97.6 billion yuan, second only to September 2023. The capital market showed a different trend from previous years, with an upward trend around the tax period and a slight decline at the end of the month [2][20] - **Increase in Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Yields**: The central points of inter - bank certificate of deposit yields for various terms increased significantly compared to August. The issuance rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit of various banks also showed an upward trend, indicating some pressure on the liability side of banks before the quarter - end [3][23] - **Low Capital Stratification Pressure**: The R - DR spread remained at a low level. The spread between R001 and DR001 narrowed slightly, while the spread between R007 and DR007 widened slightly, but overall, the stratification pressure was at a historical low [3] 10 - Month Outlook: May Maintain a Marginal Tightening Trend - **Historical Experience of Horizontal Movement of Shibor 3M**: Since May 2025, Shibor 3M has been horizontally moving for nearly 90 days and started to rise at the end of September. Historically, after horizontal movement, capital rates mostly declined, but the two instances of decline within 30 days after horizontal movement both occurred in October [4] - **Seasonal Pattern in October**: Seasonally, the capital market in October usually tightens. The spread between Shibor 3M and the OMO 7 - day rate in October usually widens compared to September, with an average increase of 10bp since 2018. The capital rate often shows a flat trend in the first half of the month and an upward trend in the second half [5] - **Credit and Capital Relationship**: If credit rebounds in the fourth quarter, the capital rate may rise. The growth rate of social financing stock peaked and declined in August. As debt replacement ends in the fourth quarter, corporate credit may bottom out and rebound. Historically, the trend of Shibor 3M is generally consistent with the growth rates of social financing stock and corporate medium - and long - term loans [5] - **Analysis of Liquidity Gap**: In October, the net financing pressure of government bonds will decrease significantly. However, as it is a large tax - paying month at the beginning of the quarter, the liquidity gap may be about 90 billion yuan. Considering the maturity of various monetary tools, the liquidity gap will increase to 3.1 trillion yuan. Assuming equal - amount renewal, the estimated excess reserve ratio in September is about 1.06% [52][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 39th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, net financing scale, and their changes compared to the previous week and historical data for various types of bonds [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content New Special Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.2% [4] - This week, new special bonds issued were 149.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 51.8 billion yuan [4] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in September was 397.1 billion yuan [4] New General Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 82.7% [9] - This week, new general bonds issued were 5.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 billion yuan [7] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 4.11 billion yuan [4] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 122.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 91.6 billion yuan [12] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.1% [12] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was - 144.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 431.2 billion yuan [17] - As of September 28, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 80.6% [18] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was - 21.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 339.6 billion yuan [20] - As of September 28, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 81.7% [20]

Group 1 - Report Overview - Report title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 39, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] - Report date: September 29, 2025 [3] Group 2 - New Special Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds is 83.2% [4] - This week, new special bond issuance was 149.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 51.8 billion yuan [4] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in September was 397.1 billion yuan [4] Group 3 - New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 5.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 billion yuan [7] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 82.7% [9] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 4.11 billion yuan [4] Group 4 - Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 122.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 91.6 billion yuan [12] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds is 83.1% [12] Group 5 - Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the treasury bond net financing scale was - 144.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 431.2 billion yuan [17] - As of September 28, the treasury bond net financing progress is 80.6% [18] Group 6 - Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was - 21.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 339.6 billion yuan [20] - As of September 28, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance is 81.7% [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 31.79 billion, a decrease of 29.04 billion compared to the previous week. As of September 21, the progress of net financing of national bonds plus new local bond issuance was 81.6% [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog New Special Bond Issuance - This week, the new special bond issuance was 97.8 billion, a decrease of 34 billion compared to the previous week [3]. - As of September 21, the progress of new special bond issuance was 79.8% [3]. - As of September 21, the cumulative new special bond issuance in September was 247.5 billion [5]. New General Bond Issuance - This week, the new general bond issuance was 20.7 billion, an increase of 6 billion compared to the previous week [7]. - As of September 21, the progress of new general bond issuance was 82.0% [9]. - As of September 21, the cumulative new general bond issuance in September was 35.4 billion [5]. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 3.09 billion, a decrease of 161.9 billion compared to the previous week [11]. - As of September 21, the progress of new local bond issuance was 80.2% [11]. National Bond Net Financing - This week, the national bond net financing scale was 287.1 billion, a decrease of 128.5 billion compared to the previous week [14]. - As of September 21, the progress of national bond net financing was 82.8% [16].

Report Summary 1. Key Data for This Week - New special bond issuance this week was 97.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 34 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - New general bond issuance this week was 20.7 billion yuan, an increase of 6 billion yuan from the previous week [7] - Local government bond net financing scale this week was 3.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 161.9 billion yuan from the previous week [11] - Treasury bond net financing scale this week was 287.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 128.5 billion yuan from the previous week [14] - Government bond net financing this week was 317.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 290.4 billion yuan from the previous week [18] 2. Issuance Progress as of September 21 - New special bond issuance progress was 79.8% [3] - New general bond issuance progress was 82.0% [9] - New local government bond issuance progress was 80.2% [11] - Treasury bond net financing progress was 82.8% [16] - Treasury bond net financing + new local government bond issuance progress was 81.6% [18] 3. Cumulative Issuance in September as of September 21 - Cumulative new special bond issuance in September was 247.5 billion yuan [5] - Cumulative new general bond issuance in September was 35.4 billion yuan [5]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the combined revenue growth rate of the first and second accounts was 0% (previous value 0%) while the combined expenditure growth rate was 8.9% (previous value 9.3%) indicating stable revenue and a slight slowdown in expenditure growth[2] - The revenue improvement was primarily driven by a significant increase in stamp duty, which contributed 0.8 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[5] Tax Revenue Insights - Stamp duty (including securities transaction stamp duty) saw a year-on-year growth of 27.4% (previous value 20.7%), with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 81.7% (previous value 62.5%)[15] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August reached 2.6503 million, a 165% increase compared to the same period last year, reflecting strong market activity[15] Government Fund and Land Revenue - Government fund revenue showed a cumulative growth rate of -1.4% (previous value -0.7%), with land transfer revenue in August amounting to 231.3 billion yuan (previous value 267.9 billion yuan) and a cumulative growth rate of -4.7% (previous value -4.6%) indicating seasonal low performance[17] - The land market's performance is expected to depend heavily on the recovery of the real estate market, which currently shows weak demand[17] Debt Issuance and Expenditure Dynamics - The issuance of government bonds slowed down, with a total of 10.46 trillion yuan issued from January to August, representing a progress rate of 66.4%, which is lower than the previous year's rate by 1.9 percentage points[20] - Expenditure growth for the first account was 3.1% (previous value 3.4%), while the second account's expenditure growth rate was 30% (previous value 31.7%) indicating a slight decline in expenditure growth due to the slowdown in special bond issuance[21] Economic Risks - Risks include the potential for domestic economic recovery to fall short of expectations, policy implementation delays, and significant weaknesses in the real estate market[23]

Report Summary Report Title Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 37, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the issuance of new special bonds reached 131.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 114 billion yuan. As of September 14, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 77.6% [4]. - As of September 14, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 14.7 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 149.7 billion yuan [4]. - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 14.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 14.7 billion yuan [7]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 192.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 156.1 billion yuan. As of September 14, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 77.9% [10]. - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 415.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 245.8 billion yuan [13]. - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 608.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 401.8 billion yuan. As of September 14, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 78.2% [16]. - As of September 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 79.4%, and the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 78.5% [21]. Data Details Special Bonds - New special bond issuance this week: 131.9 billion yuan, up 114 billion yuan week - on - week [4]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 77.6% [4]. - Cumulative issuance in September as of September 14: 149.7 billion yuan [4]. General Bonds - New general bond issuance this week: 14.7 billion yuan, up 14.7 billion yuan week - on - week [7]. - Cumulative issuance in September as of September 14: 14.7 billion yuan [4]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 79.4% [21]. Local Bonds - Net financing scale this week: 192.8 billion yuan, up 156.1 billion yuan week - on - week [10]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 77.9% [10]. Treasury Bonds - Net financing scale this week: 415.6 billion yuan, up 245.8 billion yuan week - on - week [13]. - Net financing progress as of September 14: 78.5% [21]. Government Bonds - Net financing this week: 608.4 billion yuan, up 401.8 billion yuan week - on - week [16]. - Progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance as of September 14: 78.2% [16].

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's OMO net injection was 196.1 billion CNY, and MLF net injection was 300 billion CNY, leading to a continued loose liquidity environment[7] - DR001 and DR007 both reached new year-to-date lows, with DR001 averaging 1.35% and DR007 averaging 1.48% for August[19] - The liquidity injection for the month reached 600 billion CNY, reflecting the central bank's stabilizing attitude amid market volatility[19] Institutional Behavior - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.06 trillion CNY to 7.07 trillion CNY, with significant fluctuations observed on the last trading day of the month[15] - The new adjusted capital gap index fell to -630.2 billion CNY, the lowest level this year, indicating a slow pace of institutional cross-month activities[15] - The demand for interbank certificates of deposit remained stable, but the issuance success rate for various banks showed mixed results, with state-owned banks performing better[4] Government Debt and Financing - The expected government bond payment scale for next week is approximately 121.6 billion CNY, down from 211.4 billion CNY this week[20] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds reached 620.8 billion CNY, while new special bonds totaled 32,641 billion CNY[20] - The net financing scale for government bonds is projected to decrease to about 1.2 trillion CNY in September[20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the factors affecting the bond market. The positive factors include a stable and loose capital supply, which provides continuous liquidity support and eases the pressure on the bond market, and the slower - than - expected issuance of government bonds, which reduces supply and eases concerns about the "asset shortage". The negative factors are that the manufacturing PMI has risen above 50, enhancing the expectation of economic improvement and suppressing the demand for bonds, and the 10 - year treasury bond variety has undergone shock adjustments, increasing the potential profit - taking pressure and weighing on market sentiment. The trading advice is to pay attention to the allocation value of the 10 - year treasury bond yield in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% and seize the trading opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Figures 3.1 Bond Yields - The report presents the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/04 [4]. 3.2 Interest Rates - The trends of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase by deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are shown [4]. 3.3 Bond Term Spreads - The trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [4]. 3.4 Bond Futures Positions - The positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are shown [6]. 3.5 Bond Futures Trading Volumes - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [7]. 3.6 Bond Futures Basis - The trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current - quarter contracts are shown from different time periods: 02/29 - 10/31 for 2 - year, 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 5 - year, 02/29 - 10/31 for 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [8][9][10][14]. 3.7 Bond Futures Inter - delivery Spreads - The trends of the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented from different time periods: 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [12][13][15][16]. 3.8 Bond Futures Cross - variety Spreads - The trends of the cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/04 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are presented [17][18].