Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 30th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress and net financing scale of various types of bonds as of July 27, 2025 [2][4]. 3. Summary by Bond Type 3.1 New Special Bonds - As of July 27, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 59.0%. This week, 205.4 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a week - on - week increase of 44 billion yuan. In July, a total of 433.7 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued [4]. 3.2 New General Bonds - As of July 27, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 64.7%. This week, 23.3 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week - on - week decrease of 4.4 billion yuan. In July, a total of 65.4 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued [4][7][9]. 3.3 Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 292.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 139.5 billion yuan. As of July 27, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 59.8% [11]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 1.07 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 4.74 billion yuan. As of July 27, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 57.2% [16][18]. 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 303.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 92 billion yuan. As of July 27, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 58.4% [20].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 29th week of 2025, presenting data on the issuance and net financing of various types of bonds and their progress as of July 20, 2025 [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Bond Type 3.1 Special - Purpose Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special - purpose bonds was 161.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 97.4 billion yuan [4]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new special - purpose bonds was 54.3% [4]. - As of July 20, the cumulative issuance of new special - purpose bonds in July was 228.3 billion yuan [5]. 3.2 General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 27.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 13.1 billion yuan [7]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 61.8% [9]. - As of July 20, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in July was 42.1 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Local Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 152.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 45.1 billion yuan [12]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 55.4% [12]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 58.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 135 billion yuan [17]. - As of July 20, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 57.1% [18]. 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 211.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 89.8 billion yuan [21]. - As of July 20, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local government bond issuance was 56.4% [21].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for June indicates a significant increase in M1 and M2 growth rates, reflecting heightened liquidity and economic activity, primarily driven by government financing and seasonal factors, while consumer confidence remains cautious [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Data - In June, the new social financing scale reached 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900 billion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.9% for the social financing stock, up from 8.7% [1][2]. - M1 growth accelerated from 2.3% in May to 4.6% in June, while M2 increased from 7.9% to 8.3%, indicating improved liquidity and economic activity [1][3]. - The M2-M1 gap narrowed to 3.7% from 5.6% in the previous month, suggesting a more optimistic market outlook and enhanced production and consumption investment intentions [1][3]. Group 2: Financing Data - Government bond issuance remains robust, with net financing of 1.3548 trillion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, contributing to a total issuance of 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 65% of the annual target [2][4]. - Corporate loan demand showed signs of recovery, with new corporate loans in June totaling 1.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 140 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a strong seasonal performance [4][5]. - Resident loans increased moderately, with short-term loans rising due to seasonal consumption patterns, but overall performance remains weak compared to historical averages [5].

Report Summary Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoint The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 27th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress and scale changes of various types of bonds. Key Points by Bond Type New Special Bonds - As of July 6, the issuance progress of new special bonds is 49.2% [2] - As of July 6, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in July is 2.9 billion [3] - This week, the issuance of new special bonds is 5.08 billion, a decrease of 37.15 billion from the previous week [20] New General Bonds - As of July 6, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 56.5% [6] - As of July 6, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in July is 0 [3] - This week, the issuance of new general bonds is 660 million, a decrease of 5.06 billion from the previous week [4] Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds is 2.17 billion, a decrease of 53.87 billion from the previous week [8] - As of July 6, the issuance progress of new local bonds is 50.3% [8] Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds is 19.99 billion, an increase of 8.89 billion from the previous week [12] - As of July 6, the net financing progress of treasury bonds is 53.3% [14] Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds is 22.16 billion, a decrease of 44.98 billion from the previous week [16] - As of July 6, the progress of treasury bond net financing + new local bond issuance is 52.0% [16]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the **Chinese bond market** and its dynamics, including interest rates, government debt supply, and macroeconomic factors affecting the market. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Performance**: In June, the bond market experienced overall fluctuations, with real bond yields slightly decreasing to approximately 1.65%. The central bank's unexpected reverse repurchase operations supported liquidity, while U.S.-China tariff negotiations and geopolitical conflicts influenced market sentiment [1][5][16]. 2. **Interest Rate Trends**: The bond market's yield rates have shown a trend of first rising and then falling throughout the year, stabilizing at lower levels due to the long-term U.S.-China trade tensions and the central bank's growth-stabilizing policies [3][19]. 3. **Government Debt Supply**: It is anticipated that the supply of government bonds will peak in July 2025, with special government bonds expected to exceed 190 billion and ordinary bonds net financing around 280 billion. The net supply of government bonds in July could reach approximately 3 trillion, which is expected to have a minimal impact on the market [4][14]. 4. **Inflation and CPI Predictions**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to hover around 0% year-on-year, with pork prices declining and oil prices rising due to geopolitical tensions. Core CPI is projected to recover moderately, influenced by seasonal factors, but the internal driving force for consumption recovery remains weak [7][8]. 5. **Export Growth Outlook**: Exports maintained a positive growth of 4.8% in May, supported by resilient demand from ASEAN, India, and Europe. However, there is a risk of negative growth in export rates in the second half of the year, particularly as the U.S. stance on tariffs may change as the tariff exemption period approaches its end [9][2]. 6. **Institutional Investment Behavior**: Public funds became the largest holders of interest rate bonds in June, increasing their holdings by approximately 500 billion compared to May. They shifted their strategy from short-term bonds to longer-term and ultra-long-term bonds [18][17]. 7. **Market Liquidity and Central Bank Policies**: The liquidity in the financial market remains relatively loose, with the central bank's actions expected to maintain this trend. The overall monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with a focus on potential structural monetary policy tools to support key projects [15][19]. 8. **PMI and Economic Activity**: The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is close to the threshold line, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity. However, corporate profit data suggests ongoing pressures in production and operations, which may limit further PMI recovery [11]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The notes highlight the importance of monitoring the upcoming political bureau meeting for potential new policies that could impact the market [19]. - The potential for a shift in investment strategies among institutions as they respond to changing market conditions and central bank policies is emphasized [10][17].

Group 1: Government Debt Issuance - In June, government debt issuance remained high at 2.8 trillion yuan, up from 2.3 trillion yuan in the previous period, with net financing of 1.41 trillion yuan[5] - By the end of June 2025, the net financing scale of government debt is projected to reach 7.8 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 56.2%[5] - The cumulative issuance progress for various types of government bonds is 52.0% for general bonds, 47.5% for special bonds, and 85.2% for special refinancing bonds[5] Group 2: Automotive Market Trends - From June 1 to June 22, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.269 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 8%[8] - The price war in the automotive sector ended in June, with BYD offering discounts of up to 34% on certain models, boosting consumer purchasing intentions[8] - The automotive industry faces risks from intense competition, which may affect product quality and future maintenance services[4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The BCI index fell to 49.3 in June, indicating a cautious outlook among enterprises, with sales and profit expectations declining by 2.7 and 2.9 percentage points respectively[11] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 points to 49.7% in June, with production and new orders indices improving to 51 and 50.2 respectively[19] - GDP growth for the second quarter is expected to be between 5.3% and 5.4%[20]

Report Overview - Report Title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification Number: F3083989, Investment Consulting Number: Z0018635 [3] Key Data Points New Special Bond Issuance - This week, new special bond issuance reached 422.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 379.8 billion yuan [4] - As of June 29, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 48.0% [4] - In June as of June 29, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 479.1 billion yuan [4] New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 57.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 29.9 billion yuan [7] - As of June 29, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 55.7% [8] - In June as of June 29, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 94.4 billion yuan [4] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 560.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 436.1 billion yuan [11] - As of June 29, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 49.2% [13] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the treasury bond net financing scale was 111 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 24.1 billion yuan [16] - As of June 29, the treasury bond net financing progress was 50.3% [17] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was 671.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 412.1 billion yuan [20] - As of June 29, the progress of treasury bond net financing + new local bond issuance was 49.8% [21]

Group 1 - The issuance of government bonds accelerated in May, with a total of 2.3 trillion yuan issued, bringing the net financing scale to 6.4 trillion yuan by the end of May, achieving a progress rate of 46.1% [5] - The cumulative issuance progress for various types of bonds includes: general government bonds at 39.4%, special government bonds at 42.1%, new special bonds at 37.1%, special refinancing bonds at 81.5%, and new general bonds at 43.9% [5] Group 2 - The consumption of old-for-new products accelerated in May, driven by pre-promotional policies for the 618 shopping festival, with total sales reaching 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories [7] - The estimated usage of funds for the "old-for-new" program by the end of May is between 143.9 billion to 163.2 billion yuan, nearing the allocated scale for the program [7] Group 3 - China's export rebound in May may be temporary, as mid-May port import data showed a recovery linked to increased export container bookings due to improved China-US trade relations, but the sustainability of this rebound is limited [10] - Container ship departures from China to the US decreased by 22.6% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year in May, indicating potential challenges ahead [10] Group 4 - South Korea experienced a negative export growth of 1.3% in May, marking the first decline in four months, with decreases noted across exports to ASEAN, the US, China, and Japan [12] - Despite the overall decline, the Bank of Korea reported a slight increase of 1% in daily average exports when accounting for working days in May, suggesting some resilience in the export sector [12]

Core Insights - The overall fiscal revenue and expenditure for the first four months of 2025 show a mixed trend, with total public budget revenue at 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while total expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% [1][4] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for the first four months was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 7.7% to 15,060 billion yuan [2] - Central government budget revenue was 33,928 billion yuan, a decline of 3.8%, while local government revenue rose by 2.2% to 46,688 billion yuan [2] - The completion rate of public fiscal revenue for the first four months was 36.7%, higher than the same period in 2024 and in line with the five-year average [2] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax and consumption tax both grew by 1.8%, while corporate income tax fell by 3.1% and personal income tax rose by 7.4% [2][3] - Real estate-related taxes showed mixed results, with deed tax down 15.7% and property tax up 11.2% [2][3] Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure for the first four months was 93,581 billion yuan, with central government expenditure at 12,282 billion yuan (up 9%) and local government expenditure at 81,299 billion yuan (up 3.9%) [4] - Key expenditure areas included social security and employment (up 8.5%), education (up 7.4%), and health (up 3.9%), while spending on urban and rural communities and agriculture showed a decline [4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal deficit target for the year is set at around 4%, allowing for flexibility in future policy adjustments [3] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds is expected to support infrastructure spending, with a significant amount of local special bonds pending issuance [5]

Revenue Insights - In April, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 20,427 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.89%[1] - From January to April, public fiscal revenue declined by 0.4% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed[1] - Tax revenue showed signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9% in April, while cumulative tax revenue decreased by 2.1%[1] Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal expenditure in April was CNY 20,766 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%[2] - Cumulative expenditure from January to April grew by 4.6%, slightly above the annual budget target of 4%[2] - By the end of April, 31.5% of the annual expenditure target had been completed, surpassing the progress of the same period from 2020 to 2024[2] Sectoral Analysis - Social security and employment expenditures rose by 9.6%, while health expenditures increased by 10% in April[2] - Infrastructure spending accelerated, with urban and rural community affairs and transportation expenditures growing by 6.8% and 10.6%, respectively[2] - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 8% in April, driven by a recovery in land sales[3] Debt and Funding - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, supporting broad fiscal expenditure, with CNY 1.19 trillion in new special bonds issued from January to April[3] - The issuance of long-term special government bonds began in April, providing strong support for government fund expenditures[3] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns and policy execution falling short of expectations[4]