Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core Viewpoint**: The report is bullish on the coking coal main contract and provides technical analysis and trading suggestions for multiple futures products Reasons for Bullish on Coking Coal Main Contract - Valuation has reached a low level with a cumulative decline of over 20% in December, hitting a new low for the year, and the current price is below the Mongolian coal import cost line, with significant valuation repair space [3] - Policy support from six - department documents and "Qiushi" magazine, which is expected to improve industry order and boost market sentiment [3] - Approaching restocking demand as steel mills' coking coal inventory is 12% lower than in previous years, and there will be a pre - Spring Festival winter storage restocking window [3] - Supply is tightening marginally as some coal mines have limited production after completing annual capacity tasks, and Mongolian coal port clearance is affected by winter weather [3] - Market sentiment is being repaired, with short - selling funds flowing out and a strong technical rebound momentum [3] Technical Analysis of Various Futures Stock Index Futures - The 15 - minute cycle continues an upward - trending oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips rather than chase the rise [6] Gold - After a period of sideways oscillation, there are signs of an upward movement, and going long can be attempted [11] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, supply is expected to be more abundant. Demand from domestic sectors is weak except for exports. It is recommended to trade within a wide - range oscillation, selling high and buying low [12][13] Glass - The daily - line level has consecutive negative closes, and a bearish - leaning oscillation view is recommended [15][16] Methanol - Freight rates have increased significantly, increasing the arrival cost in sales areas. Demand is increasing due to a new olefin project. The market in sales areas is strong due to multiple positive factors [18] Pulp - With domestic policies boosting domestic demand, overseas pulp mills reducing production, and the elimination of backward papermaking capacity, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve. An oscillatory trend is expected [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that there is a strong focus on upcoming domestic and overseas meetings, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, leading to a cautious market sentiment and reduced trading volume [1] - The domestic real estate sector is weakening, and the recovery is slightly below expectations, suggesting that proactive policies are likely to be implemented [1] - The Federal Reserve's direction towards interest rate cuts remains unchanged, which is expected to positively influence market conditions [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy includes a high proportion of high-quality combinations at 25% and low-quality combinations at 30%, indicating a balanced approach to risk and return [1] - There is a positive outlook on the innovative pharmaceutical investment sector, with adjustments made to include the "Jia Shi Zhong Zheng Hong Guo Tong Innovation Drug ETF" in the portfolio [1][3] - Current market indicators show a valuation temperature of 47.39°, a fear and greed index of 38, and a stock-bond value ratio temperature of 44°, suggesting that the stock market valuation is moderate [1]

Report Information - Report Name: GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD Daily Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Report Author: GOLDTRUST FUTURES Research Institute Group 1: PVC Investment Analysis - Investment Rating: Bullish on PVC second - tier contract - Core View: There are four reasons to be bullish on the PVC second - tier contract - Detailed Points: - Valuation and cost support: Current PVC prices are at a near - decade low, with the entire industry in losses (700 yuan/ton loss for calcium carbide method and 560 yuan/ton for ethylene method). There is a strong demand for valuation repair and limited downside. Rising coal prices lift the cost center, and the falling caustic soda price weakens the "alkali - chlorine compensation" support, leading to an expected supply contraction [3]. - Export demand increment: India has a demand gap of 3 million tons/year, and China's exports to India account for over 40%. From January to September 2025, exports increased by 47.78% year - on - year. After India cancelled the BIS certification, an additional 200,000 - 300,000 tons of exports to India are expected in the fourth quarter, which can digest domestic high inventories [3]. - Policy and supply - demand marginal improvement: The implementation of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" and urban village renovation policies is accelerating, which will boost the demand for downstream pipes and profiles in the real estate industry. On the supply side, new capacity has been put into production, and some enterprises have reduced their loads due to profit compression, with the operating rate declining month - on - month, thus alleviating supply pressure [3]. - Sentiment and capital drive: Frequent release of positive macro - policies has increased market risk appetite. Capital inflows have promoted the repair of futures prices. Previous negative factors have been fully digested, and the cost - effectiveness of going long is prominent [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis of Various Futures Stock Index Futures - Core View: Technically, from a 5 - minute cycle, it is expected that there will be an upward rush in the early trading session tomorrow. Overall, chasing the rise is not recommended [7]. Gold Futures - Core View: Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. The strategy is not to chase the rise or kill the fall [11]. Iron Ore Futures - Core View: Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation idea, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [13]. Glass Futures - Core View: Technically, there have been many glass factory overhauls recently, and sentiment has improved. It can be viewed with an oscillation - bullish idea [15]. Methanol Futures - Core View: As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons from the previous period. This week, there was a significant destocking of methanol port inventory. Long - term long opportunities should be grasped [18]. Pulp Futures - Core View: As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%. The inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks. The futures market has recently shown an oscillation - bearish trend [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly range - bound, with the short - term sentiment of taking profits rising in the stock market. The medium - term view is that the stock index is in a range - bound state, and in the long - term, the positive policy expectations and the trend of continuous capital inflow remain unchanged. After short - term shock consolidation, the outlook for the stock index in the long - term is not pessimistic [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term view is range - bound, the medium - term view is range - bound, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that the willingness of funds to settle profits increases in the short term [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is weak, the medium - term view is range - bound, and the reference view is range - bound. The main reason for the recent stock index correction is that the marginal driving force of domestic policy benefits weakens, and there is risk transmission from overseas stock markets. On November 24, the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 1983.6 billion yuan, an increase of 261 billion yuan from the previous day. In the short term, the stock index is mainly range - bound due to intensified market games, but in the long - term, the positive policy expectations and the trend of continuous capital inflow remain unchanged [5]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term advantages of gold as a safe-haven and investment asset are becoming more prominent, driven by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and trade tensions, leading to sustained growth in gold and jewelry demand [1] Group 1: Gold and Jewelry Market Trends - The demand for gold jewelry is expected to continue growing, influenced by the rise of ancient-style gold and IP gold jewelry, which are leading new trends [1] - The consumption logic in the industry is being restructured, with a decline in wedding-related demand and a rise in self-indulgent consumption, alongside a shift in investment demand [1] - Adjustments in gold tax policies are expected to optimize the market's investment and consumption structure, encouraging regulated trading and promoting a transition from "off-market dispersion" to "on-market concentration" [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Price Outlook - In the non-ferrous metals sector, policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are showing effectiveness, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) in October rising by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first increase of the year [1] - The medium to long-term outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with investors advised to consider participating in subsequent pullbacks and gradually building positions [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on direct investments in physical gold and tax-exempt gold fund ETFs (518800), as well as gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a short - term rebound supported by policy and environmental protection expectations, but its sustainability is to be observed. The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile, and the coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon markets are also likely to be in a volatile state [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The demand for hot - rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. - Iron - making water production rebounded, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient, the proportion of steel - mill losses increased, and there is a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. - Real - estate investment decline continued to expand, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports declined from a high level. - The previous adjustment of the futures was relatively sufficient, the support at the lower edge of the shock range increased, and short - term rebound was supported by policy and environmental protection expectations [2] Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures rebounded today and fluctuated recently. - On the supply side, global iron - ore shipments increased significantly this period, reaching a high level in the same period in recent years. Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries also rebounded to a high level. The domestic arrival volume decreased to below the annual average. - On the demand side, steel demand was weak in the off - season, steel - mill losses intensified, and iron - making water was in a seasonal production - cut trend. - The iron - ore fundamentals became looser, and the futures are expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price rose today. Coking profits were still average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream purchasing on demand and weak trader purchasing willingness. - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron - making water was at a high level, but steel - mill profits were average, and there was strong willingness to cut raw - material prices. The coke futures were at a premium, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4] Coking Coal - The coking - coal price rose strongly today. The output of coking - coal mines increased slightly, spot auction transactions were normal, and transaction prices varied. Terminal inventory increased slightly. - The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly, and production - end inventory also increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal - producing areas. - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron - making water was at a high level, but steel - mill profits were average, and there was strong willingness to cut raw - material prices. The coke futures were at a premium, the coking - coal futures were at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price rose today. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high level. The weekly output of silicon manganese continued to decline slightly but was still at a high level, and inventory increased slowly. - The forward price of manganese ore from Comilog increased slightly, and the spot ore price fluctuated quickly. Manganese - ore inventory increased slightly, and contradictions were not prominent. The price had strong bottom support [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price rose today. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high level. Export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, and the marginal impact was small. The output of magnesium metal increased, and secondary demand increased marginally. - Ferrosilicon supply decreased but remained at a high level, and on - balance inventory continued to decline. Due to the increase in electricity and semi - coke prices, the price is expected to be more likely to rise [7]

Core Insights - The public fund issuance market in China is experiencing a significant recovery, with a notable increase in the number of new funds launched in November 2023, indicating a resurgence in investor interest [2][3][4] Fund Issuance Trends - As of November 13, 2023, a total of 1,386 new public funds have been established this year, marking a 9.48% increase compared to 1,266 funds in 2022 and a 21.26% increase from 1,143 funds in 2024, setting a three-year high [4][6] - The average fundraising period for new funds has decreased to 16.92 days, down from 19 days the previous week, reflecting increased investor confidence in new fund products [3][4] Product Structure - Equity funds dominate the new fund issuance, with 39 new funds launched in the second week of November, of which 28 are equity products, accounting for 71.79% of the total [3][6] - Among the new equity funds, passive index funds and enhanced index funds are particularly popular, with 15 and 7 funds launched respectively, making up 56.41% of the new equity fund issuance [3][6] Market Dynamics - The issuance of stock funds has reached a 14-year high, with 767 stock funds launched this year, representing 55.34% of the total new funds and 36.95% of the total issuance volume [6][7] - Conversely, bond funds have seen a significant decline, with only 248 new bond funds launched, accounting for 17.89% of the total, and their issuance volume dropping to the lowest level in four years [7][8] FOF Fund Performance - FOF (Fund of Funds) funds have achieved a historic milestone, with 74 new FOF funds launched this year, representing 5.8% of the total issuance volume, the highest recorded since data collection began [8]

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown a strong rebound driven by technology stocks and favorable policies, with major indices closing with long lower shadow candlesticks, indicating strong buying support at lower levels and a short-term technical recovery [4]. Market Performance - The market exhibited a broad-based rally, with a good profit-making effect, particularly in the energy storage and new energy sectors, leading to a surge in stocks related to electric power and grid equipment, as well as significant gains in photovoltaic and lithium battery concepts [5]. - The total trading volume in the two markets was 8 trillion, down 2.36%, indicating a continuous decrease in trading volume and a cautious stance from investors, with a lack of willingness to chase high prices [6]. Fund Flow and Sentiment - There was a net outflow of institutional funds while retail investors showed a net inflow, reflecting a cautious optimism among institutions focusing on sectors with clear policy support and performance certainty, such as electric grid equipment and regional themes [7]. - Retail investor sentiment has improved, with increased participation in speculative trading, particularly in electric grid equipment and Hainan Free Trade Zone stocks, as the market's strong rebound after a deep bottom has boosted retail investors' expectations for further gains [8]. Index and Positioning - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3969.25, reflecting the overall market performance [9]. - As of November 5, 27.76% of investors increased their positions, while 17.17% reduced their holdings, indicating a general inclination towards adding to positions [11].

Group 1 - The lithium battery industry is showing signs of volume and price resonance, with some negative electrode companies initiating order price increases and the capacity utilization rate in the graphitization segment improving [1] - XINWANDA has released a 400Wh/kg polymer all-solid-state battery and has trial-produced a laboratory sample of a 520Wh/kg lithium metal super battery [1] - In the wind and storage sector, the "Beijing Wind Energy Declaration 2.0" proposes that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the annual new wind power installation should not be less than 120GW (with 15GW from offshore wind), driving market expectations upward [1] Group 2 - The new energy vehicle ETF (159806) tracks the CS New Energy Vehicle Index (399976), which selects 50 listed companies related to the new energy vehicle industry chain from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering key areas such as lithium batteries, charging piles, and new energy vehicles [1] - The new energy storage policy in Henan increases the revenue certainty for independent energy storage stations, validating the logic of high growth in domestic large storage demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 4000 points for the first time in 10 years, driven by significant leverage in the market and a rapid increase in margin trading balances, indicating a recovery in market sentiment and investment activity [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 27, the total margin trading balance in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.48 trillion yuan, with a financing balance of 2.46 trillion yuan and a securities lending balance of 177.25 billion yuan [1][3]. - The margin trading balance has increased by over 620 billion yuan since the beginning of 2025, reflecting a growth rate that exceeds market expectations [1]. - The proportion of margin trading balance to the A-share market's circulating market value is 2.5%, and the trading volume of margin transactions accounts for 11.39% of total A-share trading volume, both significantly lower than the peak levels in 2015 [3]. Group 2: Investor Participation - Individual investors remain the primary participants in the margin trading market, with their numbers increasing to 7.74 million, while institutional investors have also shown a steady rise, totaling 50,200 [3]. - The sectors attracting the most net buying through margin trading include electronic components, semiconductors, communication equipment, and software development, with net buying amounts of 4.52 billion yuan and 4.30 billion yuan for electronic components and semiconductors, respectively [3]. Group 3: Brokerage Strategies - Brokerages are focusing on expanding their margin trading client base and increasing market share, with many raising their credit business limits to accommodate growing investor demand [4][5]. - Several brokerages, including Zheshang Securities and Huaxin Securities, have announced increases in their credit business limits, indicating a competitive push to enhance service levels and market presence [5]. - The overall increase in trading volume and margin balances has strengthened the performance certainty of brokerage firms, with analysts noting a significant rise in daily trading volume compared to the previous year [5]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing intensified competition characterized by a "volume increase, price decrease" phenomenon, as brokerages engage in a pricing war for margin trading services [6]. - Some brokerages are optimizing their service mechanisms and leveraging technology to differentiate their offerings, aiming to provide specialized and precise services to high-net-worth and strategic clients [6]. - Risk management measures are being reinforced by most brokerages to ensure the stable operation of margin trading businesses, with some increasing the margin requirements for financing to balance growth and risk control [7].