Economic Overview - On October 21, 2025, Sanna Marin became Japan's first female Prime Minister, coinciding with a critical phase of structural reform and cyclical adjustment in the Japanese economy[1] - Japan's inflation has gradually moved out of a long-term low range, with the monthly CPI maintaining a year-on-year growth of 2%-4% since April 2022[2] - Average wage growth from spring negotiations is expected to exceed 5% for two consecutive years in 2024 and 2025, marking the highest level in nearly 30 years[2] Inflation Dynamics - Current inflation is primarily driven by short-term factors such as rising food, energy, and import prices, with the CPI growth rate at 3.1% in July 2025, while excluding energy and food, the inflation rate is only 1.6%[2] - The wage-price interaction mechanism in Japan is still fragile, with potential disruptions from external shocks affecting corporate profits and investment willingness[2] Economic Policy Framework - Sanna Marin's economic policy, termed "Marin Economics," continues the legacy of Abenomics, emphasizing active policy intervention to address structural stagnation[1] - The policy framework retains Abenomics' "three arrows": accommodative monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy, and structural reforms, but with a stronger focus on strategic investments and structural guidance[1][6] Market Implications - If Marin's policies are effectively implemented, fiscal expansion may increase government bond supply, potentially steepening the yield curve[1] - The normalization pace of Japan's monetary policy may slow, exerting short-term pressure on the yen, but medium-term support is expected as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle[1] Regional Impact - Japanese asset performance has significant spillover effects on Asian markets, with structural trends in the Japanese stock market often signaling global capital reallocation towards Asian risk assets[1][6]

文/ 工银国际首席经济学家 程实 、工银国际宏观分析师 周烨 2 0 25年1 0月2 1日，高市早苗成为日本史上首位女性首相，象征意义非 凡。她延续安倍三支箭，却以"早苗经济学"加码战略投资与产业升级，力 图破解通胀回温、增长乏力的结构性困局。财政扩张、货币维稳、供应链 强化共振，日债收益率曲线或陡峭化，日元短期承压、中长期仍获支撑， 更牵动亚洲资金再配置。 2025年10月21日，高市早苗当选为日本史上首位女性首相。这一具有象征意义的历史时刻，恰逢日本经济处于结构改革与周期调整交织的关键阶段，也令 外界对新政府的政策取向充满期待与关注。当前，日本通胀水平已逐步摆脱长期低迷区间，但其结构性特征仍存不确定性，内生需求与生产率提升的动力 尚显不足。面对通胀回升而增长乏力的局面，早苗经济学既是安倍经济学的传承，也是对当前经济结构的适应与创新。 总体理念上，高市延续了安倍时期的宏观政策思路，认为日本经济需要通过积极的政策干预来应对结构性停滞。在政策框架上，她依然保留安倍三支箭 ——宽松的货币政策、扩张性的财政政策以及结构性改革。然而，与安倍经济学相比，早苗经济学更加强调政策的结构导向与战略投资功能：在维持宽松 金融 ...

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.0% and SoftBank Group falling more than 10% [1][2][4] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 3.135% [3] Company Performance - Notable declines in major companies include: - SoftBank Group: down 10.37% to 22,335.0 yen [2] - Sumitomo Metal Mining: down 6.09% to 4,977.0 yen [2] - SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both fell over 1% [4] - Other companies with significant drops include: - Scully Group: down 5.04% [2] - Fujikura: down 3.54% [2] - Kuroda Electric Industry: down 3.21% [2] - LASERTEC Semiconductor: down 3.14% [2] - Mitsui Mining: down 3.14% [2] Economic Policy Impact - The appointment of Fumio Kishida as Japan's first female Prime Minister has led to a surge in the Nikkei 225 index, reaching historical highs [5] - Experts suggest that Kishida's expansionary economic policies may stimulate short-term growth but could lead to long-term risks, including increased debt and inflation [5] Gold Market Fluctuations - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, with spot gold dropping over 2% before rebounding above $4,070 per ounce [5] - On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,100 per ounce for the first time since October 14, marking a daily drop of 6.3%, the largest since April 2013 [7] - Factors influencing gold prices include reduced safe-haven demand, a stronger dollar, and profit-taking by investors [7]

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.0% and SoftBank Group falling more than 10% [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index reached historical highs recently, influenced by the appointment of Japan's first female Prime Minister, but experts warn of potential long-term risks associated with her economic policies [2] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices saw significant volatility, with spot gold dropping over 2% before rebounding above $4,070 per ounce, marking a daily decline of approximately 1% [2] - On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,100 per ounce for the first time since October 14, experiencing a single-day drop of $250, or 6.3%, the largest since April 2013 [4] - The silver market also faced pressure, with spot silver dropping over 1.17% [2] Influencing Factors - Market analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to reduced risk appetite, a strengthening dollar, and profit-taking by investors concerned about overvaluation following recent historic highs [5] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, including a joint statement from European leaders supporting negotiations for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has further diminished safe-haven demand [5] - Despite the recent downturn, long-term factors supporting gold prices, such as central bank purchases, remain intact, with analysts expecting a recovery in gold prices in the coming months [5]

Core Points - Japan's first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has been elected as the 104th Prime Minister after overcoming significant political challenges [2][5] - Takaichi's election has triggered a market phenomenon known as "Takaichi trade," characterized by a surge in the Nikkei 225 index and a decline in the yen [2][9] - The new administration will face numerous challenges, including a weak foundation within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and insufficient parliamentary seats [2][8] Political Landscape - Takaichi won the Prime Minister election with 237 votes, marking a significant political milestone [5] - The LDP's coalition with the Komeito party has collapsed, leading to a new alliance with the Japan Innovation Party to secure governance [6][8] - The coalition's stability is uncertain, as policy disagreements may arise, particularly regarding political funding reforms [7][8] Economic Policies - Takaichi aims to continue and strengthen "Abenomics," focusing on expansive fiscal and monetary policies, which she refers to as "Sanae economics" [10][11] - The market anticipates that her policies will inject momentum into the Japanese economy, particularly in strategic sectors like semiconductors and AI [10][11] - However, there are concerns about the long-term risks associated with increased national debt and potential inflationary pressures [11][12] Market Reactions - Following Takaichi's election, the Nikkei 225 index reached historical highs, reflecting investor optimism regarding her economic policies [9][10] - The yen has depreciated against the dollar, indicating market expectations of continued monetary easing [9][10] - Experts caution that the "Takaichi trade" may only be a short-term phenomenon, dependent on her ability to implement significant reforms and manage inflation [12]

日本首位女首相诞生。 当地时间10月21日，日本自民党总裁高市早苗在临时国会众议院和参议院首相指名选举中均胜出，当选 日本第104任首相。 上海市日本学会会长、上海对外经贸大学日本经济研究中心主任陈子雷也向21世纪经济报道记者表示， 维新会与自民党结盟能实现其政策目标的最大化，包括指定大阪为"副首都"的构想，废除企业和团体政 治献金等问题。 虽然在大选前夕，高市早苗已基本锁定胜局，但她的拜相之路颇为曲折。10月4日当选自民党总裁后， 高市早苗相继遭遇执政联盟破裂、被在野党联合狙击等困局。直至本月20日，自民党与日本维新会签署 了两党联合执政的协议文件，高市早苗获得维新会支持，才得以在首相指名选举中险中取胜。 由于高市早苗向来主张实施扩张性的财政政策，日本首相指名选举的消息还触发了日元弱、日股强 的"高市交易"。21日，日股继续狂飙，日经225指数盘中一度接近5万点，连续两日收盘创历史新高。与 此同时，日元兑美元继续呈现出缓慢下跌的态势。 在首相选举"涉险过关"后，接下来，高市早苗将不得不面临一系列严峻考验，包括如何应对自民党内根 基脆弱、国会席位不足、日本经济复苏仍缺乏动力等问题以及美国关税挑战等。自民党总裁 ...

高市早苗以女性的身份创下多项政坛纪录。安倍第二次担任首相后，高市被任命为自民党政调会长，这是自民党内号称"三驾马车"之一的要职，高市也成为 首位担任此职的女性。2014年，她担任总务大臣，不仅是首位女性总务大臣，也成为迄今为止在任时间最长的总务大臣。 安倍遇刺身亡后，高市早苗也被日本舆论视为"安倍路线"的头号继承者，也被称为"安倍女孩"。她以鲜明的右翼保守立场著称，在意识形态上主张日本传统 价值观与民族自豪感，强调修宪、强化安保、维护天皇制权威等。 中国国际问题研究院副研究员唐奇芳表示，高市上任，自民党新内阁的政策可能不会发生重大变化。高市早苗一直以政策鲜明著称，自民党选择她为总裁就 是力图以其极右翼形象挽回保守选民支持。因此，其执政后，只会在政策细节和落实部署上更加务实，但纲领不会有重大调整。可以预见，她的政策应该仍 然遵循积极财政经济、鹰派安保外交、保守社会价值、科技联西抑中的大方向。 "早苗经济学" 自1885年日本内阁制度创立以来，该国首位女性首相诞生。10月21日下午，日本国会举行首相指名选举。64岁的自民党新总裁高市早苗在众议院获得过半票 数，提前宣告成为日本第104任首相。这位在政治倾向上有着浓 ...

记者丨胡慧茵 视频丨柳润瑛 日本首位女首相诞生。 当地时间10月21日，日本自民党总裁高市早苗在临时国会众议院和参议院首相指名选举中均胜 出，当选日本第104任首相。 编辑丨李莹亮 虽然在大选前夕，高市早苗已基本锁定胜局，但她的拜相之路颇为曲折。10月4日当选自民党 总裁后，高市早苗相继遭遇执政联盟破裂、被在野党联合狙击等困局。直至本月20日，自民党 与日本维新会签署了两党联合执政的协议文件，高市早苗获得维新会支持，才得以在首相指名 选举中险中取胜。 由于高市早苗向来主张实施扩张性的财政政策，日本首相指名选举的消息还触发了日元弱、日 股强的"高市交易"。 21日，日股继续狂飙，日经225指数盘中一度接近5万点，连续两日收盘 创历史新高。与此同时，日元兑美元继续呈现出缓慢下跌的态势。 在首相选举"涉险过关"后，接下来，高市早苗将不得不面临一系列严峻考验，包括如何应对自 民党内根基脆弱、国会席位不足、日本经济复苏仍缺乏动力等问题以及美国关税挑战等。自民 党总裁竞选期间，高市喊出"日本回来了"的口号。外界都在关注，她想带回一个怎样的日本， 还将带领日本走向何方。 图源：新华社 上海市日本学会会长、上海对外经贸大学日 ...

Core Points - Japan has elected its first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, who won the election on October 21, becoming the 104th Prime Minister of Japan [1][2] - Takaichi's election was marked by challenges, including a fractured ruling coalition and opposition from rival parties, but she secured support from the Japan Innovation Party [1][2] - The election results have led to a significant market reaction, with the Nikkei 225 index reaching historical highs, while the yen continues to depreciate against the dollar [1][6] Political Landscape - Takaichi's political stance is characterized by a strong conservative approach, closely aligned with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's policies, particularly in economic and security matters [2][7] - The coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party is seen as a strategic move to maintain political power and facilitate policy implementation in a context of reduced parliamentary majority [3][4] - The partnership is not without its challenges, as there are unresolved issues regarding political funding reforms, which could lead to tensions between the coalition partners [4][5] Economic Policies - Takaichi aims to continue and enhance "Abenomics," focusing on aggressive monetary easing and fiscal expansion, which she refers to as "Sanae Economics" [7][8] - The market has reacted positively to her proposed policies, anticipating increased government spending in key sectors like semiconductors, AI, and defense, which could stimulate economic growth [7][8] - However, there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of these policies, particularly regarding Japan's rising national debt and potential inflationary pressures [8][9] Market Reactions - The stock market has shown optimism, with the Nikkei 225 index hitting record highs, driven by expectations of Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policies [6][7] - The yen has depreciated against the dollar, reflecting market sentiment regarding the anticipated economic policies and their implications for inflation and currency stability [6][9] - Analysts caution that the current market enthusiasm may be short-lived if Takaichi faces significant obstacles in implementing her agenda due to her minority government status [9]

这些天，小通看到日网上对日本首相的预测是反转又反转。两周前，自民党与公明党"分家"，高市早苗在选举中少了，媒体与大众纷纷猜测下一任首相会是 国民民主党的玉木雄一郎。但就在昨天晚上，自民党与维新会签署政权合意书，维新会将在大选中从第一轮起就为高市早苗投票。 经纬各异 十几天前，高市早苗当选日本自民党新一任总裁。这些风云诡谲的形势和多重猜测，让高市成为首个日本女性首相的可能性变得时而晦暗，又时而明亮。当 然，不论风风雨雨，她想逆风翻盘的野心仍然不灭。 高市早苗的行为和形象，不难让人联想到英国的前首相——撒切尔夫人。而高市自年轻时，就把这位女性当作自己的偶像。在10天前的自民党总裁大选中， 她身穿蓝色正装，或许也是在向她的偶像致敬。 她已经连续赢得自民党总裁与日本首相的选举，这个疑问也浮出日本人的脑海里：高市早苗能不能成为日本版的"撒切尔夫人"呢？她的"铁拳"会打向中国 吗？ 自强女性成长史 实际上，高市早苗与撒切尔夫人在成长与个性方面的确有显著相似的地方。年龄差将近40岁的两位女性都是小镇女孩起手，通过自己的实力一步步走向权力 巅峰，靠才智与韧性打破男性垄断的政坛壁垒。而这种存在共鸣的成长背景，也或许解释了她公开 ...