期现价差

Search documents
硅铁:宏观情绪提振,震荡偏强,锰硅,宏观情绪提振,震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:51
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the silicon iron and manganese silicon industries are both "shockingly strong due to the boost of macro - sentiment" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are affected by macro - sentiment and are expected to show a shockingly strong trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing prices of SiFe2508 and SiFe2509 are 5446 and 5436 respectively, up 166 from the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 8,955 and 274,236, and the open interests are 21,646 and 195,900. For manganese silicon, the closing prices of MnSi2508 and MnSi2509 are 5712 and 5726 respectively, up 96 and 102. Their trading volumes are 6,962 and 305,351, and the open interests are 13,908 and 382,828 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5100 yuan/ton, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5500 yuan/ton, manganese ore Mn44 block is 38.5 yuan/ton - degree (up 0.2), and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 580 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - 08 futures price difference of silicon iron is - 346 yuan/ton (down 166), the spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese silicon is - 226 yuan/ton (down 102). The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2508 - 2509 is 10 yuan/ton (unchanged), and that of manganese silicon 2508 - 2509 is - 16 yuan/ton (up 4). The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2508 - silicon iron 2508 is 266 yuan/ton (down 70), and that of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 is 290 yuan/ton (down 64) [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 2, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions was reported, with Inner Mongolia's price range of 5100 - 5150 (down 50). The price range of 75 silicon iron was also reported. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron were 1000 - 1030 and 1080 - 1110 US dollars/ton respectively. The price range of 6517 silicon manganese in the north was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton (down 50), and in the south was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton (down 50) [2] - According to the latest data from the South African Trade Statistics Bureau, South Africa's manganese ore exports in May were 2,429,691 tons, a slight increase of 0.82% month - on - month and a slight decrease of 6.14% year - on - year. From January to May 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 10.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% compared with 9.92 million tons in the same period last year, reaching a new high in the past 8 years [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 1, and that of manganese silicon is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]
《金融》日报-20250701
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 03:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data on various futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and shipping futures, along with their price changes, spreads, and related economic indicators. These data can help investors understand the market trends and make investment decisions [1][2][6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Changes**: The latest prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts show different degrees of change compared to the previous day, with some spreads increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: The historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of various spreads are provided, which can help investors evaluate the current spread levels [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts and their inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads are presented, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day and the percentiles since listing [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Domestic and Foreign Prices**: The domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and price ratios of gold and silver are given, as well as the changes in interest rates and exchange rates [6]. - **Inventory and Position**: The inventory and position data of domestic and foreign precious metal futures are provided, including the changes in inventory and position compared to the previous period [6]. Shipping Futures - **Freight Rates**: The Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates, settlement price indices, and Shanghai export container freight rates are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes [9]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The futures prices of different contracts and the basis of the main contract are given, as well as their changes compared to the previous period [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The data on global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, port berthing conditions, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are provided [9]. Data and Information - **Overseas Data**: The economic indicators and financial events of the eurozone and the United States, such as PMI, CPI, and job vacancies, are presented [12]. - **Domestic Data**: The economic indicators and financial events in China, including PMI, port inventories, and product sales rates, are provided [12].
《金融》日报-20250627
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:58
Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Presents detailed data on stock index futures spreads, including price differences, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles for various futures contracts and cross - variety ratios [1] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Spread Data**: Displays current and historical quantiles of price differences for multiple futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures spreads, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1] - **Quantile Analysis**: Compares current spread values with historical data, showing the position of the current value within the historical distribution [1] Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Provides information on the basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures, along with their changes and historical quantiles [2] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Basis Data**: Lists the basis values of different treasury bond futures contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) and their changes from the previous day, along with historical quantiles [2] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: Presents inter - period spreads for different contract months and their changes and historical quantiles [2] - **Cross - variety Spread Data**: Shows cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures contracts and their changes [2] Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Analyzes the prices, basis, ratios, and related market indicators of domestic and foreign precious metals futures and spot markets [7] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Price Data**: Compares the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures and spot markets on different days, showing price changes and percentage changes [7] - **Basis Data**: Calculates the basis between different precious metals contracts and their historical quantiles [7] - **Ratio Data**: Presents the ratios between different precious metals contracts and their changes [7] - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Data**: Lists the current and previous values of interest rates and exchange rates and their changes [7] Report 4: Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Analyzes the shipping industry's freight rates, index data, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data [12] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Freight Rate Data**: Compares the shipping freight rates of different shipping companies between different days, showing price changes and percentage changes [12] - **Index Data**: Presents the settlement price indices of different shipping routes and their changes [12] - **Futures Price and Basis Data**: Lists the futures prices of different contracts and the basis of the main contract and their changes [12] - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic indicators [12] Report 5: Data/Information Calendar Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Lists overseas and domestic economic indicator data and financial events for different time periods [15] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Overseas Data/Information**: Includes macro - data, agricultural product - related data, and CFTC position reports from different countries and regions [15] - **Domestic Data/Information**: Contains economic indicators and financial events for different domestic commodity sectors such as black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities [15]
广发期货《金融》日报-20250625
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:40
| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月25日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 服新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -51.63 | 8.87 | 6.50% | 4.70% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -33.92 | -1.95 | 2.40% | 1.20% | | | IC期现价差 | -39.44 | 8.93 | 27.40% | 30.20% | | | IM期现价差 | -199.67 | 27.36 | 15.00% | 1.80% | | | 次月-当月 | -13.20 | 1.80 | 23.30% | 31.00% | | | 季月-当月 | -19.80 | 6.20 | 36.00% | 40.20% | | | 远月-当月 | -50.40 | 3.20 | 41.30% | 35.70% | | ...
《金融》日报-20250623
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:43
| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年6月23日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | F期现价差 | -73.04 | -70.35 | 1.60% | 2.40% | | | | | | | H期现价差 | -32.00 | 1.60% | -38.32 | 0.60% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -51.11 | -52.08 | 17.60% | 18.80% | IM期到价差 | 1.20% | -211.79 | -213.97 | 5.00% | | -44.80 | 5.80% | 次月-景月 | -2.80 | 0.40% | -75.60 ...
广发期货《金融》日报-20250619
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 02:25
| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月19日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 服新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -2.77 | -0.99 | 59.8096 | 53.20% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -2.52 | 0.63 | 42.20% | 45.60% | | | IC期现价差 | -7.87 | -5.36 | 81.90% | 72.30% | | | IM期现价差 | -11.19 | 0.28 | 90.00% | 63.40% | | | 次月-当月 | -41.00 | 0.00 | 1.20% | 6.70% | | | 季月-崇月 | -70.60 | -1.20 | 10.6096 | 14.30% | | | 远月-当月 | -99.20 | 2.00 | 17.20% | 19.00% ...
日度策略参考-20250617
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 05:42
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]
广发期货《金融》日报-20250617
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:56
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report No overall core view is presented in the reports. The documents mainly offer data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals futures, and container shipping futures, along with some economic indicators and market information. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **IF期现价差**: Latest value -4.00, changed by 50.0096 compared to the previous day, with historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of 3.79 and 55.30% respectively [1]. - **IH期现价差**: Latest value -6.61, changed by 4.62, with historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of 31.10% and 31.90% respectively [1]. - **IC期现价差**: Latest value -11.61, changed by -0.37, with historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of 75.00% and 66.30% respectively [1]. - **IM期现价差**: Latest value 1.75, with historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of 90.00% and 50.20% respectively [1]. - **跨品种比值**: For example, 中证500/沪深300 is 1.4889, changed by 0.0034, with historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of 64.70% and 42.30% respectively [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **基差**: TS基差 is 1.7699, changed by -0.0486, with a 33.80% percentile since listing; TF基差 is 1.6670, changed by 0.0449, with a 45.40% percentile since listing; T基差 is 1.7095, changed by 0.0064, with a 58.60% percentile since listing; TL基差 is 1.7864, changed by 0.3188, with a 63.80% percentile since listing [2]. - **跨期价差**: Different contracts have various values and changes, such as TS当季 - 下季 is -0.1180, changed by 0.0200, with an 8.00% percentile [2]. - **跨品种价差**: TS - TF is -3.6790, changed by 0.0320, with a 3.20% percentile; TS - T is -6.5490, changed by 0.0070, with a 1.40% percentile; TF - T is -2.8700, changed by -0.0250, with a 1.00% percentile [2]. Precious Metals Futures - **国内期货收盘价**: AU2508合约 is 792.30 yuan/gram, down 2.06 yuan (-0.26%) from June 13; AG2508合约 is 8858 yuan/kilogram, up 67 yuan (0.76%) [5]. - **外盘期货收盘价**: COMEX黄金主力合约 is 3404.30 dollars/ounce, down 48.30 dollars (-1.40%); COMEX白银主力合约 is 36.37 dollars, unchanged [5]. - **现货价格**: London gold is 3383.62 dollars/ounce, down 49.73 dollars (-1.45%); London silver is 36.29 dollars, unchanged [5]. - **基差**: 黄金TD - 沪金主力 is -4.37, down 0.87, with a 5.20% historical 1 - year percentile; 白银TD - 沪银主力 is -23, down 25, with a 46.10% historical 1 - year percentile [5]. - **比价**: COMEX金/银 is 93.60, down 1.33 (-1.40%); 上期所金/银 is 89.44, down 0.92 (-1.01%) [5]. Container Shipping Futures - **现货报价**: MAERSK马士基's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate is 2796 dollars/FEU, down 28 dollars (-2.03%); CMA达飞 is 3857 dollars/FEU, up 71 dollars (1.88%) [8]. - **集运指数**: SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 1697.63, up 74.8 (4.61%); SCFIS (US West route) is 2908.68, up 723.6 (33.12%) [8]. - **期货价格及基差**: EC2602 is 1453.6, down 19.2 (-1.30%); EC2508 (主力) is 2030.0, down 38.0 (-1.84%); 基差 (主力) is -236.7, up 78.4 (-24.89%) [8]. - **基本面数据**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3248.57 FILEU, unchanged; Shanghai port on - time rate is 42.50, up 13.48 (46.45%) compared to April [8]. Data and Information - **海外数据/资讯**: Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, US May import price index monthly rate, US May industrial production monthly rate, etc. are to be released [10]. - **国内数据/资讯**: There is 1820 billion yuan of 1 - year medium - term lending facility (MLF) due today; various inventory and production data of different commodities are to be updated [10].
金融期货早班车-20250613
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 03:23
Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On June 12, the four major A-share stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3402.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11% to 10234.33 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.26% to 2067.15 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.3% to 977.97 points. Market turnover was 13,036 billion yuan, an increase of 169 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non-ferrous metals (+1.4%), media (+1.33%), and beauty care (+1.31%) led the gains, while household appliances (-1.77%), coal (-1.14%), and food and beverages (-1.13%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IH > IF, with the number of rising/flat/falling stocks being 2,325/224/2,864 respectively. Institutions, main players, large investors, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -5 billion, -87 billion, -18 billion, and 111 billion yuan respectively, with changes of 0, -43 billion, +34 billion, and +9 billion yuan [2]. - For the basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH, they were 132.42, 99.53, 50.6, and 45.28 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -19.8%, -15.89%, -12.04%, and -15.58%, and three-year historical quantiles of 4%, 6%, 2%, and 1% respectively. The futures-spot price difference remained at a relatively low level [2]. - On June 12, most yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two-year bond was 1.347, up 1.06 bps from the previous day; the five-year bond was 1.472, up 0.84 bps; the ten-year bond was 1.581, up 0.6 bps; and the thirty-year bond was 1.934, down 0.32 bps [3]. 2. Trading Strategies - For stock index futures, in the short term, due to the deep discount of small-cap stock indices, it is speculated to be the result of the scale expansion of neutral products since this year. With the bond bull market not restarted yet, the proportion of short positions in neutral strategies may still be high, so the deep discount may continue, leading to market fluctuations. A short-cycle band strategy is recommended. In the medium to long term, the view of being bullish on the economy is maintained. Buying IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips is recommended. For near-month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro-cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [3]. - For treasury bond futures, the current spot bonds show a characteristic of strong supply and weak demand, but this pattern is expected to change. Firstly, the maturity scale of government bonds in June has increased, and the net supply rhythm of government bonds may flatten. Secondly, there is a possibility of a reduction in the long-term liability cost of insurance in July. Thirdly, the domestic market risk preference has returned to a defensive style, and the allocation demand for the bond market may increase. In the futures market, the price of the CTD bond of near-month contracts is low, and combined with the relatively high IRR level recently, the short-side delivery willingness is strong, putting pressure on the price of near-month contracts and leading to a premium in far-month contracts. The positions of T and TL have increased, while those of TF and TS have decreased, indicating strong long-side strength at the long end, possibly betting on a further decline in future policy interest rates. A strategy of short-term long and long-term short is recommended, buying T and TL on dips in the short term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long term [5]. 3. Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the recent import and export sentiment has rebounded [13].
《金融》日报-20250611
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:08
o eo 2025-05-09 2025-01-09 2025-03-09 2025-04-09 2025 - TS00-TS01 — TS00-TS02 — TS01-TS02 TL跨期价差 -0. AH 2025-04-09 2025-05-09 2025-01-09 2025-02-09 2025-03-09 | 股指期货价差日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 Z0016628 叶倩宁 | | 价差 品种 最新值 较前一日变化 历史1年分位数 | | F期现价差 -24.47 -7.02 25.00% 17.40% | | 期现价差 IC期现价差 -39.79 -0.54 30.20% | | 26.20% | | 次月-当月 -36.80 -1.20 6.50% 8.80% | | 李月-崇月 -67.20 -1.80 12.70% 16.00% 元月-当月 -95.80 2.00 15.90% 19.70% | | IF跨期价差 李月-次月 -30.40 -0.60 14.30% 21.50% | | 元月-次月 -59.00 3.20 33.10% 26 ...