Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Views - The release of the new "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" indicates a tightening of safety supervision in the coal mining sector, with significant revisions made to the previous regulations [1]. - Recent trends show an increase in coal prices at ports, while international oil and gas prices have decreased [2]. - The operating rates of coking coal mines remain low, but the average daily pig iron output is at a high level compared to the same period last year [3]. - Coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port and the Bohai Rim ports are at high levels compared to the same period last year [4]. - The report suggests that recent news regarding "anti-involution" and "checking overproduction" has positively impacted the medium to long-term expectations for coal prices, indicating significant upside potential for coal stocks [4]. Summary by Sections Safety Regulations - The new "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" consist of 34 chapters and 777 articles, with 56 new articles added and 353 articles substantially revised, marking the most comprehensive revision to date [1]. Price Trends - Qinhuangdao Port's average price for thermal coal (5500 kcal) is 692 RMB/ton, up by 18 RMB/ton (+2.61%) week-on-week [2]. - The average price for thermal mixed coal in Yulin, Shaanxi (5800 kcal) is 547 RMB/ton, up by 4 RMB/ton (+0.74%) [2]. - Newcastle Port's thermal coal FOB price (5500 kcal) is 69 USD/ton, up by 2.05% [2]. Production and Utilization Rates - The capacity utilization rate for 462 thermal coal mines is 93.9%, up by 0.54 percentage points week-on-week but down by 1.57 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The operating rate for 523 coking coal mines is 83.7%, down by 0.19 percentage points week-on-week and down by 7.14 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Inventory Levels - As of August 15, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port is 5.67 million tons, up by 3.66% week-on-week and up by 5.78% year-on-year [4]. - Bohai Rim ports have a total coal inventory of 23.635 million tons, down by 4.15% week-on-week and down by 4.64% year-on-year [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends accumulating shares of China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, with a focus on coking coal stocks such as Lu'an Environmental Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [4].

Group 1: Production Expectations - The expectation of production restrictions in steel mills remains, with a recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizing the governance of disorderly competition rather than merely reducing capacity, leading to a cooling sentiment regarding "anti-involution" in the market [1] - Steel profits have reached a new high for the year as steel prices rise, with the profitability rate of steel enterprises at 68.4%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points week-on-week, marking eight consecutive weeks of growth [1] - Rebar production was reported at 2.21 million tons, an increase of 101,200 tons week-on-week, indicating strong production willingness among steel mills [1] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite seasonal impacts leading to a slight decline in terminal demand, overall demand remains resilient, with a week-on-week increase in rebar apparent consumption of 73,800 tons, totaling 2.11 million tons [2] - The total inventory of rebar reached 5.57 million tons, an increase of 103,900 tons week-on-week, but still at a low level compared to previous years [2] - The market has not yet seen a decline in steel exports due to tariff concerns, with July exports at 9.84 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month [2] Group 3: Cost Support - The impact of "anti-involution" on coking coal is becoming evident, with slow recovery in coal mine production following the end of the safety production month in June [3] - The utilization rate of coking coal mines was reported at 83.9%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points week-on-week, indicating limited supply and ongoing checks on overproduction [3] - Despite the demand season being weak, the low inventory levels of rebar and tight coking coal supply provide cost support for steel prices, with expectations of a stable to slightly strong price trend as the market approaches the peak season [3]

Group 1: Production and Market Sentiment - The expectation of production restrictions in steel mills remains, with a recent meeting by the Central Political Bureau emphasizing the governance of disorderly competition rather than merely reducing capacity, leading to a cooling sentiment regarding "anti-involution" in the market [1] - Steel profits have reached a new high for the year due to rising steel prices, with the profitability rate of steel enterprises at 68.4%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points week-on-week, marking eight consecutive weeks of growth [1] - Rebar production was reported at 2.2118 million tons, an increase of 101,200 tons week-on-week, indicating strong production willingness among steel mills [1] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite seasonal impacts leading to a slight decline in terminal demand, overall demand remains resilient, with rebar apparent consumption at 2.1079 million tons, an increase of 73,800 tons week-on-week [2] - The total inventory of rebar was 5.5668 million tons, up 103,900 tons week-on-week, but still at a low level compared to previous years [2] - Concerns regarding tariffs affecting steel exports have not materialized, with steel exports in July 2025 reaching 9.836 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month [2] Group 3: Cost Support - The impact of "anti-involution" on coking coal is becoming evident, with slow recovery in coal mine production following safety inspections, and a decrease in the utilization rate of coking coal mines to 83.9%, down 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [3] - Coking coal supply remains constrained, limiting the potential for significant price declines, thus providing cost support for steel prices [3] - Although there may be resistance to rising rebar prices during the off-season, low inventory levels and the upcoming peak season in September and October suggest a balanced supply-demand scenario, with potential for early replenishment of demand [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - In the short term, as the anti - involution sentiment cools down, the pricing logic of coking coal and coke returns to fundamentals. The supply of coking coal is affected by the "over - production inspection" policy and pre - parade restrictions in September, while the cost support for coke remains. On the demand side, steel mills have high profits and no production cuts, with rigid demand remaining high. For coking coal, the price is expected to run in a wide and strong range of 1030 - 1300. For coke, the price is expected to run in a wide and volatile range of 1600 - 1800 [5][83] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Frequent market news amplifies market sentiment. Policies such as the coal production inspection notice issued by the National Energy Administration in 2025 and the "276 - workday production plan" of Wanjie Coal Industry have affected the market [8][9] - **Coal Supply**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of raw coal increased year - on - year, but the daily output of sample mines decreased month - on - month. Although coal mine profits have improved and there is a possibility of increased production, the impact of the "over - production inspection" policy and pre - parade restrictions needs to be continuously monitored [10] - **Coking Coal Imports and Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal decreased year - on - year but increased slightly month - on - month. The import volume of Mongolian, Australian, Russian, and Canadian coking coal all increased marginally [16] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of sample mines and ports decreased, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises increased. The inventory has shifted downward, and the coking coal price is supported [26] - **Coke Supply**: From January to June 2025, the coke output increased year - on - year. As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of independent coking enterprises remained flat, while that of steel enterprises decreased slightly. Affected by the rising price of coking coal, the profit of coking enterprises has shrunk, and the market supply has tightened marginally [35] - **Coke Imports and Exports**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of coke decreased year - on - year. Global economic slowdown and other factors suppress the export demand for coke, but the impact on the domestic market is small [44] - **Coke Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total coke inventory decreased, with the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreasing significantly, that of steel enterprises decreasing slightly, and that of ports increasing. The inventory has shifted downstream, and the market has shifted to on - demand procurement [47] - **Iron Element Demand**: As of August 7, 2025, the daily output of molten iron by steel enterprises remained high, and the consumption of five major steel products was at a low level in recent years. The inventory of five major steel products was in the process of destocking. Although some steel mills had short - term maintenance, the overall production willingness of steel mills did not decline significantly [56] - **Iron Element Terminal Demand**: From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased year - on - year, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment increasing and real estate development investment decreasing. High - temperature and rainy weather and weak capital improvement restricted the recovery of demand. The apparent demand for rebar in August is expected to decline [64] - **Basis and Term Structure**: Recently, the coking coal and coke futures have fluctuated at low levels. The basis of coking coal and coke has fallen from high levels. For both, the contango structure has steepened, and cross - month arbitrage can conduct reverse arbitrage. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage entry opportunities when the basis strengthens [74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the near term [6]. Core Insights - Significant decrease in port coal inventories and sustained increase in thermal coal prices during the peak season. The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (5500 kcal weekly average) increased by 9 CNY/ton (+1.36%) this week, marking six consecutive weeks of upward movement. Port coal inventory at Qinhuangdao is now at 5.22 million tons, down 10.77% week-on-week, returning to normal levels for this time of year, suggesting a tightening supply-demand situation [1][2]. - The coal supply-demand structure is expected to continue improving due to policies aimed at reducing overproduction, which may support further price increases for port coal [1]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 658 CNY/ton, up 9 CNY/ton (+1.36%) week-on-week. The average price of mixed thermal coal in Yulin, Shaanxi (5800 kcal) is 510 CNY/ton, up 23 CNY/ton (+4.72%) [2]. Inventory Levels - As of August 1, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port is 5.22 million tons, down 10.77% week-on-week, and up 1.36% year-on-year. The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports is 24.73 million tons, down 8.22% week-on-week, and up 0.64% year-on-year [4]. Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants is 61.5%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week and down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces is 90.24%, down 0.57 percentage points week-on-week, but up 1.37 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that recent policies aimed at reducing overproduction and the peak season for coal may lead to significant improvements in coal price expectations. It recommends stocks such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, with a particular focus on coking coal stocks like Lu'an Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [4].

Report Overview - This is a black metal research report released by the Commodity Research Institute on July 29, 2025, covering steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys [3][7][12] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market lacks price drivers and follows raw material trends in the short term. The trading logic of coking coal and coke may shift to fundamental factors, with short - term downward adjustment space for coking coal prices. Iron ore prices are expected to remain high, and the ferroalloy market is affected by the coking coal market [4][11][17] Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Trump may impose 15% - 20% tariffs on imports from countries without separate trade agreements with the US. In H1 2025, China completed 1.6474 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment. Shanghai rebar is 3390 yuan/ton (-40), Beijing rebar is 3300 yuan/ton (-60), Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3440 yuan/ton (-60), and Tianjin hot - rolled coil is 3380 yuan/ton (-60) [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector oscillated weakly at night. Steel production cuts slowed, rebar destocked while hot - rolled coil stocked up. Steel exports remained high, but hot - rolled apparent demand declined in July. The market sentiment improved, but steel may lack price drivers and follow raw material trends. If over - production checks are implemented, steel prices may rise. The exchange's coking coal position limit may lead to steel price adjustments [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel will oscillate, and long positions are advised to be closed. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][6][8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On July 28, the auction price of coking coal in Lvliang and Linfen decreased. Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipt is 1435 yuan/ton, etc. [9][10] - **Logic Analysis**: After the sentiment cools down, the trading logic may shift to fundamentals. The short - term supply - demand gap of coking coal may ease, and there is short - term downward adjustment space for prices. Mid - term, focus on over - production checks and inventory release [11][13] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Coking coal prices may adjust downward in the short term, with intense market competition. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see [14] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On July 28, China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. Trump may impose tariffs. From July 21 - 27, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. Qingdao Port PB powder is 770 yuan/ton (-12) [15] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. The market sentiment cooled due to coking coal price drops. Supply from mainstream mines is in a seasonal low, and non - mainstream mine shipments are high. Iron ore demand remains resilient. Current prices are at a reasonable level, and short - term prices are expected to remain high [17] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: High - level operation. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [18] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate average price is 35 yuan/ton - degree. A Jiangsu steel mill set the 75B silicon iron purchase price at 6170 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [19] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, silicon iron spot prices were weak. Supply increased with price rises, and demand was supported by steel production. The coking coal market adjustment affected market sentiment, and long positions are advised to be closed [20] Manganese Silicon - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate price increased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree [21] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, manganese ore spot prices were strong, and manganese silicon spot prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was supported by steel profits, and the coking coal adjustment affected sentiment. Long positions are advised to be closed [23] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Close long positions due to coking coal impact. Arbitrage: Close long - silicon - iron short - manganese - silicon positions, and consider spot - futures positive arbitrage at low basis. Options: Wait and see [24]