Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US dollar index, which is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and political concerns regarding tariffs proposed by President Trump [1] Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - As of August 29, the US dollar index is at 97.99, with a slight increase of 0.12% from an opening price of 97.87 [1] - The dollar index experienced a decline of 0.17% the previous day due to heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] Group 2: Currency Strength - The weakening of the dollar has led to a strengthening of major currencies, with the euro rising by 0.24%, the yen increasing by 0.33%, and the pound gaining 0.13% [1] Group 3: Market Focus - Market attention is shifting from previous discussions between Trump and the Federal Reserve to the upcoming release of the core PCE price index, which is a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve [1] - Despite the market's cautious stance ahead of this critical data release, overall trading volume in the forex market remains low [1] Group 4: Political Influence - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in the dollar is not only due to rate cut expectations but also concerns stemming from Trump's tariff comments, which have raised fears about political interference in the Federal Reserve's independence [1] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The dollar index has shown signs of support near previous lows and has started to rebound, although it still faces strong resistance above [1] - An upward trend has been observed in the hourly chart, but the overall movement is constrained by key resistance levels, necessitating close monitoring of these levels to determine the short-term direction of the dollar index [1]

Group 1 - National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference on August 29 [1] - Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will hold a press conference regarding the overall arrangements for the 2025 Chinese Farmers' Harvest Festival [2] - A total of 12.47 billion shares will be unlocked today, with a total market value of 13.171 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - 39 companies have disclosed stock repurchase progress, with 21 companies announcing new repurchase plans [4] - The highest repurchase plan amounts are from Daqin Railway, Shengtun Mining, and Spring Airlines, with proposed repurchase amounts of 1.5 billion yuan, 600 million yuan, and 500 million yuan respectively [4] - 361.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos will mature today [5] Group 3 - Key economic data to be released includes the U.S. July core PCE price index year-on-year and Germany's August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate [6]

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a rebound of 0.2%, reaching around 97.9 during early Asian trading hours [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance at the annual economic policy seminar, suggesting a likely rate cut in September, which led to a 1.2% drop in the USD/EUR exchange rate, hitting a four-week low [3] - Market expectations indicate an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, a 22% increase from the beginning of the month [3] Group 2 - Emerging market bond funds saw a net inflow of $4.7 billion in the first three weeks of August, with Chinese government bonds receiving $1.2 billion, marking the highest monthly allocation [4] - The yield curve in the Eurozone steepened, with the spread between German and US ten-year government bond yields widening to 140 basis points, the highest since Q4 2023, indirectly supporting the strength of the euro [3] - Retail trader sentiment indicators show a current dollar long-to-short position ratio of 1:1.3, the lowest level for this period in three years, indicating a gradual withdrawal of retail investors from dollar assets [3]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's interest rate strategy team questions U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset's claims regarding the Federal Reserve's policy rate, stating that his assertions lack model support [1] - Basset suggested on August 13 that the current Federal Reserve policy rate should be lowered by 150 to 175 basis points, but the specific models backing this claim remain unclear [1] - The Deutsche Bank team, led by Matthew Luzkin, indicates that the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report does not provide justification for significant rate cuts, especially to the extent proposed by Basset [1] Group 2 - The current federal funds rate is in a reasonable range of 4% to 4.65%, aligning with results derived from traditional monetary policy models like the Taylor rule [1] - The analysis shows that the current interest rate level is generally consistent with economic fundamentals, allowing for only a minor adjustment of 25 basis points [1] - The report specifically excludes the "first difference rule," which suggests further tightening of monetary policy in the context of persistent inflation above target and no significant rise in unemployment [1] Group 3 - Since December of the previous year, the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points [4] - Historical trends indicate that policymakers typically lean towards early rate cuts when there are signs of labor market downturns, yet Fed Chair Powell has emphasized a restrictive policy stance [4] - There is a divergence between Powell's cautious approach and the support for rate cuts expressed by two Federal Reserve governors during the July monetary policy meeting [4] Group 4 - Treasury Secretary's advisor Joseph Lavorgna clarifies that Basset's "model" refers to the Fed's long-term neutral rate forecast range of 2.6% to 3.6%, which does not directly correlate with the current policy rate [4] - The Deutsche Bank strategy team reiterates that policy adjustments should be based on real-time economic data rather than long-term forecasts, arguing that substantial rate cuts are not sufficiently justified given ongoing inflation pressures and the labor market's lack of significant deterioration [4]

·日本央行维持0.5%的利率不变 【市场资讯】 ·特朗普批评鲍威尔："太愤怒、愚蠢且政治化" ·韩美达成协议：美国对韩国的关税率调整至15% 【资讯导读】 ·香港《稳定币条例》正式实施 ·8月1日，香港《稳定币条例》正式实施。香港金融管理局发布了一系列配套指引，包括《持牌稳定币 发行人监管指引》，明确了牌照申请条件。 ·美国总统特朗普强烈批评美联储主席鲍威尔，认为他"太愤怒、愚蠢且政治化"，不适合其职位。美国 财长贝森特指出美联储理事会内部存在分歧，并预计新任主席提名将在年底前公布。 ·特朗普致函全球17家主要制药公司，如礼来、诺和诺德及辉瑞，要求将美国的新药价格降至与特定国 家相同的最低水平。他还要求立即下调Medicaid药品价格，并保证未来药品价格与海外一致。 ·韩美经贸磋商达成协议，美方将对韩国征收的"对等关税"和汽车关税税率一律下调至15%，韩国将不再 进一步开放大米和牛肉市场。韩美商定成立规模达3500亿美元的对美投资基金，涉及造船、半导体、核 电等多个领域。 ·日本央行维持0.5%的利率不变，并上调2025年核心CPI预期至2.7%。行长植田和男表示当前无通胀应对 滞后风险，减弱了近期加息预期。 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market opened higher with all three major indices rising, with the Dow Jones up 0.17%, Nasdaq up 1.55%, and S&P 500 up 0.82% [1] - Microsoft shares surged over 10% after earnings, making it the second tech giant globally to surpass a market capitalization of $4 trillion [1] - Meta's stock rose over 6% following earnings, driven by AI boosting core business growth [1] Group 2 - Qualcomm's stock fell over 3% in pre-market trading due to the announcement that it will lose Apple as a customer for its modem business in the coming years [8] - Meta's pre-market stock increased by over 11%, reporting a 22% year-on-year revenue growth and a net profit of $18.3 billion, up 36% [9] - Microsoft's pre-market stock rose nearly 9% after reporting Q4 FY2025 revenue of $76.44 billion, compared to $64.7 billion in the same period last year [10] Group 3 - The US core PCE price index for June increased by 2.8% year-on-year, up from a previous value of 2.7% [11] - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 26 was reported at 218,000, slightly up from the previous week's 217,000 [12][13] - The number of layoffs reported by Challenger companies in July was 62,075, an increase from the previous value of 47,999 [14]

美国6月核心PCE物价指数年率2.8%，预期2.7%，前值由2.7%修正为2.8%。美国6月核心PCE物价指数月 率0.3%，预期0.3%，前值0.2%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Economic Indicators - The June PCE price index in the US increased by 2.6% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%, with the previous value revised up to 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February, with the previous value also revised up to 2.8% [3] Inflation Trends - Service sector inflation is accelerating, with rising costs for durable goods also noted [4] - Prices for household goods have surged due to the impact of the trade war [6] - Healthcare costs are beginning to rise [8] Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Real consumer spending adjusted for inflation grew by only 0.1% in June, failing to reverse the decline from the previous month [10] - Durable goods spending has declined for three consecutive months, the longest downturn since 2021, while service spending remains low, indicating weak discretionary spending [10] - Real disposable income remained flat in June after a decline in May, with weak wage growth limiting consumer spending willingness [10] - The savings rate is steady at 4.5%, reflecting household caution amid economic uncertainty [10] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with rising core inflation raising concerns, while weak consumer and labor market conditions prompt calls for interest rate cuts [12] - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, with some members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal divisions [12] - Recent trade policies and potential tariffs proposed by former President Trump are viewed as risks that could further elevate inflation [12] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock index futures maintained an upward trend, while Treasury yields declined, and the dollar remained stable, indicating market caution regarding the Fed's policy direction [13] - The June PCE data has intensified policy divisions within the Fed, as core inflation remains above target while consumer and income growth show signs of weakness [13]

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the June PCE price index year-on-year increased to 2.6%, surpassing the expected 2.5%, marking the highest level since December 2024 [1] - The previous value was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3% [1] - Month-on-month, the PCE price index remained flat at 0.3%, aligning with expectations, while the previous value was revised from 0.1% to 0.2% [1] Core PCE Insights - The June core PCE price index year-on-year rose to 2.8%, exceeding the expected 2.7%, returning to the highest level since October 2024 [1] - The previous value was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8% [1] - Month-on-month, the core PCE price index also held steady at 0.3%, matching expectations, with the previous value at 0.2% [1]

Core Insights - The core PCE inflation appears to be worsening, not better than when the Federal Reserve began lowering interest rates last year [1] - The three-month annualized rate of the core PCE price index in June was 2.6%, compared to 2.3% in the same month last year [1] - The six-month annualized rate for the core PCE was 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3% in the same period last year [1]