Group 1 - National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference on August 29 [1] - Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will hold a press conference regarding the overall arrangements for the 2025 Chinese Farmers' Harvest Festival [2] - A total of 12.47 billion shares will be unlocked today, with a total market value of 13.171 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - 39 companies have disclosed stock repurchase progress, with 21 companies announcing new repurchase plans [4] - The highest repurchase plan amounts are from Daqin Railway, Shengtun Mining, and Spring Airlines, with proposed repurchase amounts of 1.5 billion yuan, 600 million yuan, and 500 million yuan respectively [4] - 361.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos will mature today [5] Group 3 - Key economic data to be released includes the U.S. July core PCE price index year-on-year and Germany's August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate [6]

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a rebound of 0.2%, reaching around 97.9 during early Asian trading hours [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance at the annual economic policy seminar, suggesting a likely rate cut in September, which led to a 1.2% drop in the USD/EUR exchange rate, hitting a four-week low [3] - Market expectations indicate an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, a 22% increase from the beginning of the month [3] Group 2 - Emerging market bond funds saw a net inflow of $4.7 billion in the first three weeks of August, with Chinese government bonds receiving $1.2 billion, marking the highest monthly allocation [4] - The yield curve in the Eurozone steepened, with the spread between German and US ten-year government bond yields widening to 140 basis points, the highest since Q4 2023, indirectly supporting the strength of the euro [3] - Retail trader sentiment indicators show a current dollar long-to-short position ratio of 1:1.3, the lowest level for this period in three years, indicating a gradual withdrawal of retail investors from dollar assets [3]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's interest rate strategy team questions U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset's claims regarding the Federal Reserve's policy rate, stating that his assertions lack model support [1] - Basset suggested on August 13 that the current Federal Reserve policy rate should be lowered by 150 to 175 basis points, but the specific models backing this claim remain unclear [1] - The Deutsche Bank team, led by Matthew Luzkin, indicates that the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report does not provide justification for significant rate cuts, especially to the extent proposed by Basset [1] Group 2 - The current federal funds rate is in a reasonable range of 4% to 4.65%, aligning with results derived from traditional monetary policy models like the Taylor rule [1] - The analysis shows that the current interest rate level is generally consistent with economic fundamentals, allowing for only a minor adjustment of 25 basis points [1] - The report specifically excludes the "first difference rule," which suggests further tightening of monetary policy in the context of persistent inflation above target and no significant rise in unemployment [1] Group 3 - Since December of the previous year, the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points [4] - Historical trends indicate that policymakers typically lean towards early rate cuts when there are signs of labor market downturns, yet Fed Chair Powell has emphasized a restrictive policy stance [4] - There is a divergence between Powell's cautious approach and the support for rate cuts expressed by two Federal Reserve governors during the July monetary policy meeting [4] Group 4 - Treasury Secretary's advisor Joseph Lavorgna clarifies that Basset's "model" refers to the Fed's long-term neutral rate forecast range of 2.6% to 3.6%, which does not directly correlate with the current policy rate [4] - The Deutsche Bank strategy team reiterates that policy adjustments should be based on real-time economic data rather than long-term forecasts, arguing that substantial rate cuts are not sufficiently justified given ongoing inflation pressures and the labor market's lack of significant deterioration [4]

·日本央行维持0.5%的利率不变 【市场资讯】 ·特朗普批评鲍威尔："太愤怒、愚蠢且政治化" ·韩美达成协议：美国对韩国的关税率调整至15% 【资讯导读】 ·香港《稳定币条例》正式实施 ·8月1日，香港《稳定币条例》正式实施。香港金融管理局发布了一系列配套指引，包括《持牌稳定币 发行人监管指引》，明确了牌照申请条件。 ·美国总统特朗普强烈批评美联储主席鲍威尔，认为他"太愤怒、愚蠢且政治化"，不适合其职位。美国 财长贝森特指出美联储理事会内部存在分歧，并预计新任主席提名将在年底前公布。 ·特朗普致函全球17家主要制药公司，如礼来、诺和诺德及辉瑞，要求将美国的新药价格降至与特定国 家相同的最低水平。他还要求立即下调Medicaid药品价格，并保证未来药品价格与海外一致。 ·韩美经贸磋商达成协议，美方将对韩国征收的"对等关税"和汽车关税税率一律下调至15%，韩国将不再 进一步开放大米和牛肉市场。韩美商定成立规模达3500亿美元的对美投资基金，涉及造船、半导体、核 电等多个领域。 ·日本央行维持0.5%的利率不变，并上调2025年核心CPI预期至2.7%。行长植田和男表示当前无通胀应对 滞后风险，减弱了近期加息预期。 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market opened higher with all three major indices rising, with the Dow Jones up 0.17%, Nasdaq up 1.55%, and S&P 500 up 0.82% [1] - Microsoft shares surged over 10% after earnings, making it the second tech giant globally to surpass a market capitalization of $4 trillion [1] - Meta's stock rose over 6% following earnings, driven by AI boosting core business growth [1] Group 2 - Qualcomm's stock fell over 3% in pre-market trading due to the announcement that it will lose Apple as a customer for its modem business in the coming years [8] - Meta's pre-market stock increased by over 11%, reporting a 22% year-on-year revenue growth and a net profit of $18.3 billion, up 36% [9] - Microsoft's pre-market stock rose nearly 9% after reporting Q4 FY2025 revenue of $76.44 billion, compared to $64.7 billion in the same period last year [10] Group 3 - The US core PCE price index for June increased by 2.8% year-on-year, up from a previous value of 2.7% [11] - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 26 was reported at 218,000, slightly up from the previous week's 217,000 [12][13] - The number of layoffs reported by Challenger companies in July was 62,075, an increase from the previous value of 47,999 [14]

美国6月核心PCE物价指数年率2.8%，预期2.7%，前值由2.7%修正为2.8%。美国6月核心PCE物价指数月 率0.3%，预期0.3%，前值0.2%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Economic Indicators - The June PCE price index in the US increased by 2.6% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%, with the previous value revised up to 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February, with the previous value also revised up to 2.8% [3] Inflation Trends - Service sector inflation is accelerating, with rising costs for durable goods also noted [4] - Prices for household goods have surged due to the impact of the trade war [6] - Healthcare costs are beginning to rise [8] Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Real consumer spending adjusted for inflation grew by only 0.1% in June, failing to reverse the decline from the previous month [10] - Durable goods spending has declined for three consecutive months, the longest downturn since 2021, while service spending remains low, indicating weak discretionary spending [10] - Real disposable income remained flat in June after a decline in May, with weak wage growth limiting consumer spending willingness [10] - The savings rate is steady at 4.5%, reflecting household caution amid economic uncertainty [10] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with rising core inflation raising concerns, while weak consumer and labor market conditions prompt calls for interest rate cuts [12] - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, with some members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal divisions [12] - Recent trade policies and potential tariffs proposed by former President Trump are viewed as risks that could further elevate inflation [12] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock index futures maintained an upward trend, while Treasury yields declined, and the dollar remained stable, indicating market caution regarding the Fed's policy direction [13] - The June PCE data has intensified policy divisions within the Fed, as core inflation remains above target while consumer and income growth show signs of weakness [13]

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the June PCE price index year-on-year increased to 2.6%, surpassing the expected 2.5%, marking the highest level since December 2024 [1] - The previous value was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3% [1] - Month-on-month, the PCE price index remained flat at 0.3%, aligning with expectations, while the previous value was revised from 0.1% to 0.2% [1] Core PCE Insights - The June core PCE price index year-on-year rose to 2.8%, exceeding the expected 2.7%, returning to the highest level since October 2024 [1] - The previous value was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8% [1] - Month-on-month, the core PCE price index also held steady at 0.3%, matching expectations, with the previous value at 0.2% [1]

Core Insights - The core PCE inflation appears to be worsening, not better than when the Federal Reserve began lowering interest rates last year [1] - The three-month annualized rate of the core PCE price index in June was 2.6%, compared to 2.3% in the same month last year [1] - The six-month annualized rate for the core PCE was 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3% in the same period last year [1]

美国6月核心PCE通胀升温 美联储9月降息前景再添变数 金十数据7月31日讯，美国6月通胀数据略超预期，为美联储降息时间表再添变数。美联储青睐的核心 PCE物价指数环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.8%，略高于市场预测的0.29%和2.7%。包含食品能源的整体 PCE指数环比上升0.3%，同比上涨2.6%，亦高于市场预期的0.23%和2.5%。这份超预期的通胀报告使美 联储降息路径更趋复杂。政策制定者此前强调，需要看到通胀持续向2%目标回落的更多证据，而最新 数据可能延缓这一进程。 ...