Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the global oil and fat market operated in a complex and changeable pattern, with significant price differentiation among the three major oils and fats. The core drivers were the re - balancing of supply and demand, international trade policy games, and the transformation of the biodiesel industry. The global supply of oils and fats tended to be loose overall, while the structural evolution on the demand side became a key variable, with biodiesel policies dominating the long - term logic [4][101]. - The import volume of the domestic oil and fat market in the first half of the year was restricted by international trade frictions and customs clearance policies, and the consumption was weak overall. Inventory differentiation further highlighted structural contradictions [4][5][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 H1 Oil and Fat Market Review - In January, affected by the USDA report, CBOT soybeans rose, and domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures prices also increased. Spot - end basis prices changed accordingly [13]. - In February, palm oil futures prices soared due to Indonesia's policies and Brazil's soybean harvest progress, while soybean oil was affected by domestic soybean customs clearance and state - reserve sales, and rapeseed oil declined slightly [13]. - In March, after China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated, palm oil futures prices fell, and soybean oil futures prices fluctuated with the influence of South American soybeans [21]. - In April, palm oil and soybean oil futures prices declined due to factors such as OPEC + production increase and Brazilian soybean arrivals, while rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated [21]. - In May, palm oil futures prices fluctuated, soybean oil futures prices first rebounded and then declined, and rapeseed oil futures prices rose [27]. - In June, palm oil futures prices rebounded, soybean oil futures prices rose, and rapeseed oil futures prices fell. Spot - end basis prices generally weakened [29]. Global Oil and Fat Supply Analysis Global Soybean Supply Remains Loose - Global soybeans have had three consecutive years of production increases. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 426.8 million tons, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The global soybean ending inventory is expected to reach 125.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise to 22.08% [30][33]. - The weather in the US soybean - corn belt has improved, and the soybean good - to - excellent rate is at a good level, with a high probability of a bumper harvest [37]. Global Rapeseed Supply Recovers Significantly - In the 2024/25 season, global rapeseed production decreased due to frost in Europe and the Black Sea region. However, in the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 89.773 million tons, with significant increases in major producing countries [42][45]. - The overall growth of Canadian rapeseed is good, although there are some risks in the Manitoba region [53]. Global Palm Oil Enters the Seasonal Production Increase Period - In the first half of 2025, Malaysian palm oil production recovered after a low in January - February, and Indonesian palm oil production also reached multi - year highs in March - April [54]. - Indonesia raised the export tax on crude palm oil in May, and Malaysia lowered the export tariff in July. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy is restricted by subsidy funds [57][58]. Overseas Biodiesel Demand Analysis Global Biodiesel Production Trend - In 2025, global biodiesel production is expected to decline, with only Indonesia and Brazil showing an increase. The EU, the US, China, and India are expected to see a decrease in demand [61][62]. - Brazil will increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% starting from August 1, which will boost soybean oil consumption [62]. Current Situation of the US Biodiesel Industry - In the first half of 2025, the US biodiesel industry faced pressure from falling crude oil prices and the 45Z policy. Industry profits were poor, and production was low. However, US soybean oil exports increased [64][67]. Impact of Future US Biodiesel Policies - The proposed US RVO plan for 2026 and 2027 will significantly increase the mandatory biodiesel blending volume, and the new 45Z policy will enhance the competitive advantage of US soybean oil. If implemented, it will have a long - term positive impact on the global oil and fat market [74][75]. Domestic Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Analysis Import - From January to April 2025, domestic direct imports of soybean oil decreased, and soybean imports decreased in the first four months and then increased in May. Rapeseed oil direct imports increased, while rapeseed imports decreased. Palm oil imports decreased in the first four months, and the import volume may gradually recover after June [76][81][86]. Consumption - The overall consumption of domestic oils and fats in the first half of 2025 was weak. Soybean oil consumption was affected by supply, and consumption is expected to pick up in the second half of the year. Rapeseed oil consumption was constrained by high inventory, and palm oil consumption was affected by price differentials and is expected to increase in the second half [87][88][92]. Inventory - As of June 20, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The national commercial inventory of rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, and the palm oil inventory decreased in the first half of the year and then rebounded [93][95][100].

短期，预计 6 月马棕继续小幅累库，三季度产地仍处增产周期，棕榈油 报价或震荡偏弱运行。目前市场仍关注美国生柴的落地情况，将对盘面造成 较大扰动。当前美豆主产区天气良好，后期继续关注产地天气和季度报告。 国内豆油开始累库，但预计库存仍不会宽松。欧洲菜籽临近上市，另外加拿 大上调旧作菜籽库存，国内菜油基本面变化不大，菜油供大于求的格局持续， 不过国内菜油进入逐渐去库阶段，菜油在国内基本面边际好转的预期下以及 中加关系不确定性仍存，对菜油盘面提供一定支撑。 【策略推荐】 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、 | 行情回顾 3 | | | 二、 | 棕榈油出口表现欠佳，库存整体保持紧平衡 | 4 | | 三、 | 印度阶段性进口高峰有望来临，但本年度整体进口或将明显下滑 | 9 | | 四、 | 提议增加美国生柴义务 12 巴西上调生柴掺混至 B15，EPA | | | 五、 | 国内油脂库存持续累库 油脂基差稳中偏弱运行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but international biodiesel profits are low and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian canola has led to a rise in the canola sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations ease and have a macro-level impact on the market [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is the El Niño weather [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Imported soybean inventory: Mentioned but no specific data or analysis provided [6]. - Soybean oil inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2]. - Soybean meal inventory: Mentioned but no specific data or analysis provided [10]. - Oil mill soybean crushing: Mentioned but no specific data or analysis provided [12]. - Palm oil inventory: On June 2, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Canola oil inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of canola oil was 650,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4]. - Rapeseed inventory: Mentioned but no specific data or analysis provided [22]. - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats: Mentioned but no specific data or analysis provided [24]. Demand - Apparent consumption of soybean oil: Mentioned but no specific data or analysis provided [14]. Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,800 - 8,200 [2]. - Palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [3]. - Canola oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [4]. Recent利多利空 Analysis -利多 factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production reduction season [5]. -利空 factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5].

油脂日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 银河期货油脂日报 2025/6/25 | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 2509收盘价 各品种地区现货价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | 豆油 | 7984 | 34 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8224 | | | | 8234 | 8184 | | 250 | 0 240 | 0 | 200 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8344 | 18 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8564 | | | | 8584 | 8644 | | 220 | 0 240 | 0 | 300 | -20 | | 菜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and the price of crude oil may remain strong in the new week. The trading of U.S. biodiesel continues, and external disturbances outweigh the industrial fundamentals, leading to a short - term bullish trend in both domestic and foreign oils and fats. It is recommended to pay attention to the Middle East situation. The September spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil has returned above 1,200, and the previous position for widening the spread should be held cautiously. Attention should also be paid to the January soybean contract. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Points - Last week, the price centers of both domestic and foreign oils and fats moved significantly higher. In the producing areas, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 10 - 17% in the first 20 days of June, and production decreased by 4% in the first half - month. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 43.3% month - on - month in May. The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, the U.S. soybean crush in May was 192.829 million bushels, and the U.S. soybean oil inventory was 1.373 billion pounds. In China, the imports of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseeds in May were 180,000 tons, 110,000 tons, and 336,000 tons respectively. Last week, the spot trading of soybean oil was good, and downstream palm oil buyers restocked. The inventories of soybean oil and palm oil increased to 850,000 tons and 410,000 tons respectively. [7] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price centers of both domestic and foreign oils and fats moved significantly higher. [9] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **External Factors**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and the policy of U.S. biodiesel is becoming clearer, continuously disturbing the crude oil and oils and fats markets. The POGO spread has continued to decline. [12][13] - **U.S. Soybeans**: The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, lower than expected. The NOPA's U.S. soybean crush in May was 192.829 million bushels, the highest in the same period over the years, and the U.S. soybean oil inventory in May was at a multi - year low. The premium of Brazilian soybeans rose to 100 cents per bushel. [12] - **Palm Oil**: In the first half - month of June, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4%, and exports increased by 10 - 17% in the first 20 days. Indonesia's palm oil exports continued to increase in May. India lowered the basic import tax on crude edible oils and cancelled some palm oil orders for July - September. [12] - **Imports and Crushing**: China imported 1.3918 million tons of soybeans in May, with a cumulative import of 3.7108 million tons from January to May, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The imports of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseeds in May were 180,000 tons, 110,000 tons, and 335,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 8.4%, - 20.3%, and - 26.12%. The soybean crushing rate continued to rise, and the soybean inventory in oil mills stopped increasing. The rapeseed crushing rate was low, and the rapeseed inventory in oil mills continued to decline. [12] - **Inventory**: As of mid - June, the soybean oil inventory increased for 7 consecutive weeks to 850,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 810,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous month; the palm oil inventory increased slightly to 410,000 tons. The total inventory of the three major oils and fats increased to 1.94 million tons, compared with 1.66 million tons in the same period last year. [12] - **Spot Prices**: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats rose. As of June 20, the price of soybean oil was 8,400 yuan/ton, a 4.5% increase from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 8,863 yuan/ton, a 3.2% increase; the price of rapeseed oil was 9,936 yuan/ton, a 4.22% increase. [12] - **Demand**: Last week, the spot trading volume of soybean and rapeseed oils increased, and palm oil was purchased for rigid demand. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 138,200 tons, compared with 106,600 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 2,308 tons, compared with 12,965 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 47,000 tons, compared with 20,000 tons in the previous week. [12] 3.4 Spread Tracking No detailed content provided other than the section title.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, it is expected that the oil and fat market will be volatile and bullish due to external factors, but there is a risk of a high - level pullback after the event changes and the sentiment fades [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2509 for soybean oil was 8084 with a rise of 112; palm oil was 8518 with a rise of 72; and rapeseed oil was 9703 with a rise of 120. The basis of different oils in various regions showed different changes, such as the basis of soybean oil in Tianjin decreased by 10 [4] - **Monthly Spread**: For the 9 - 1 monthly spread, soybean oil was 70 with a rise of 12, palm oil was 42 with a rise of 2, and rapeseed oil was 130 with a rise of 6 [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was 434 with a rise of 40, the OI - Y spread was 1619, and the OI - P spread was 1185 with a rise of 48. The oil - meal ratio was 2.64 with a rise of 0.05 [4] - **Import Profit**: The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 190, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1238 [4] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 24th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 41.0 (compared with 37.3 last week and 84.7 last year), palm oil was 39.2, and rapeseed oil was 75.8 (compared with 76.9 last week and 41.5 last year) [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: According to ITS data, Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 43.3% month - on - month, an increase of 59.9 million tons, and the exports of crude palm oil increased by more than four times month - on - month [6] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of June 13, 2025 (the 24th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 40.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%. The inventory was still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation was stable with a slight increase, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight decrease [6] - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 225.87 million tons, and the operating rate was 63.49%. As of June 13, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 84.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level in the same period of history, and the basis was stable [6][8] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 7.15 million tons, and the operating rate was 19.06%. As of June 6, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 76.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 million tons, still at a high level in the same period of history. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation was around 1050 US dollars, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1400. The spot market was light, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight increase [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: In the short - term, it is expected that the oil and fat market will be volatile and bullish due to external factors, but beware of a high - level pullback after the event changes and the sentiment fades [10] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [11] - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [12] 3.4 Related Attached Figures - The report provides multiple figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil; the monthly spreads of Y 9 - 1, P 5 - 9, and OI 5 - 9; and the cross - variety spreads of Y - P 05 and OI - Y 05 [15][18]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 15 日 棕榈油：美国生柴政策利好，带动油脂上行 豆油：压榨恢复较好，国内油脂弱于国际 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马来 4-5 月超预期增产利空逐步被市场消化，短期矛盾不明显，跟随原油、中加及中美关系 影响下的油脂板块震荡筑底为主，棕榈油 09 合约周涨 0.37%。周五晚上跟随美豆油大幅上涨，下周一预 计保持上行势头。 豆油：豆系市场驱动不明显，供应问题淡化，但中美缓和给美豆市场带来利多情绪，同时现货端有储 备消息扰动，豆油 09 合约周涨 0.62%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马来 4-5 月产量超预期恢复提前带来 200 万吨的库存水平，印尼虽一季度库存维持低位，但 4 月库存有望随出口大减而累至 300 万吨以上，故二季度印马产地库存有恢复至 550 万吨的正常水平，因 此基本面看在至三季度产地报价可能还会出现松动以进一步释放压力。虽暂维持基本面有压力尚未释放的 判断，但下跌过程中存在较强支撑，资金对于棕榈油的多配基于宏观配置、油品对冲、提前布局下半年行 情等考虑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - The Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed sharply lower on Monday, with the benchmark contract down 3.42%, breaking below the recent support level due to speculative long - position liquidation [2]. - The U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate as of June 1, 2025, was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The fast planting progress and good good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans continue to constrain the U.S. soybean market. However, heavy rains in Argentina in mid - to - late May may damage the soybean harvest, which boosts the market [2]. - In the domestic market, since this month, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil mill operating rate has significantly increased, and the supply has become more ample, putting pressure on the meal market prices. For rapeseed meal, after the tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal is increased, the direct import pressure will significantly decline, and the supply is likely to tighten later. But the new import of Indian rapeseed meal and relatively high short - term inventory pressure drag on the rapeseed meal market price [2]. - The short - term market still focuses on the tight inventory of old - crop Canadian rapeseed. The growth of Canadian rapeseed has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. Last week, the weather in the Canadian prairie region was hot, dry, and with little precipitation, raising concerns about drought risks. However, the weather forecast shows that there will be beneficial rainfall in the prairie region this week [2]. - The palm oil producing areas have entered the seasonal production - increasing season, with increased output pressure. However, the improvement in export demand supports the palm oil market. India's reduction of CPO import tariffs may further benefit Malaysian palm oil exports, which boosts the domestic oil market. In the domestic market, the high inventory pressure of oil mills continues to constrain the market price, but the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides cost support for the domestic rapeseed oil market [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9272 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2557 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 686.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 24.9 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5266 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 162 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 244 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil main contract positions were 295183 hands, down 2199 hands; rapeseed meal main contract positions were 552037 hands, down 18839 hands [2]. - Top 20 futures positions: Net long positions of rapeseed oil were 26574 hands, down 3638 hands; net long positions of rapeseed meal were - 27832 hands, down 25527 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 27429, down 162 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8020 yuan/ton, unchanged; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8750 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; oil - meal ratio was 3.64, down 0.06 [2]. - Average price: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9563.75 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5095.95 yuan/ton, down 157.35 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 212 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 23.72%, up 5.86 percentage points; the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 15.04 million tons, down 0.51 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2 million tons, down 0.35 million tons [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 55 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.96%, down 1.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 20.97%, down 1.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.61%, down 0.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.63%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.88%, up 1.93 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 27.09%, up 0.33 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 10.84%, up 0.66 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 15.92%, down 0.17 percentage points [2].

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-06-03投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货7950，基差312，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月23日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲 软。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美关系恶化关税 问题影响市 ...

油脂：市场紧张情绪缓和 油脂小幅回升 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 3、据外媒报道，咨询公司 Datagro 预估巴西 2024/25 年度大豆产量将达到 1.720 亿吨， 此前预测为 1.712 亿吨。预估巴西 2024/25 年度玉米产量为 1.327 亿吨，此前预测为 1.317 亿吨。 4、加拿大油籽加工商协会（COPA）发布的油籽压榨数据显示，2025 年 04 月，加拿大 油菜籽压榨量为 919345.0 吨，环比降 10.27%；菜籽油产量为 390276.0 吨，环比降 10.5%； 数据来源：Wind、金石期货研究所 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、上周我国菜油、棕榈油商业库存下降，豆油增加，三大油脂库存整体下降。5 月 23 日，三大油脂商业库存 185 万吨，周环比下降 1 万吨，月环比上升 8 万吨，同比上升 10 万 吨。其中豆油库存 70 万吨，周环比上升 6 万吨，月环比上升 10 万吨，同比下降 22 万吨； 菜籽油 79 万吨，周环比下降 2 万吨，月环比上升 2 万吨，同比上升 35 万吨；棕榈 ...