Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the protein meal market, US soybean is growing well with a higher - than - expected good rate, leading to a continuous decline in US soybean futures prices. Concerns about domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter and the strengthening of rapeseed meal prices support domestic protein meal prices [3]. - In the oil market, Malaysian palm oil production increased in July 2025, but export volume decreased. The consensus between China and the US on tariff issues has boosted the overall strength of the oil sector [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 8240, 8982, and 9621 respectively. Their price changes were 14, 12, and 129, with price change rates of 0.17%, 0.13%, and - 3.15% respectively. For protein meals, the closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal were 3010 and 2730, with price changes of 27 and 75 and price change rates of 0.91% and 2.82% respectively. The closing price of peanuts was 8844, with a price change of 26 and a price change rate of 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: For example, the current value of Y9 - 1 spread is 52 (previous value: 38), P9 - 1 is - 4 (previous value: 2), and so on. The current M/RM09 ratio is 1.10 (previous value: 1.12) [2]. International Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4244 (Ringgit/ton), 996 (cents/bu), 56 (cents/lb), and 274 (dollars/ton) respectively. Their price changes were 14, - 12, - 1, and - 2, with price change rates of 0.33%, - 1.21%, - 1.09%, and - 0.72% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various oils and meals have different changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8410, with a price change rate of 0.72%, and the spot price of Nantong soybean meal is 2890, with a price change rate of 0.70% [2]. - **Spot Basis**: Spot basis values vary, such as 170 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and - 120 for Nantong soybean meal [2]. - **Spot Spreads**: The current value of the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 670 (same as the previous value), and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1350 (previous value: 1310) [2]. Import and Crush Profit - The current import and crush profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 355, - 197, etc. respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous values [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 13,709, 0, and 3,487 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2]. Industry Information - According to the Ministry of Commerce, China and the US have formed Geneva Consensus and London Framework in the economic and trade field, and their teams have held economic and trade talks in Stockholm [3]. - Brazil's National Supply Company predicts that the grain output in the 2024 - 2025 agricultural cycle will reach 3.396 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. From January to June this year, Brazil exported soybeans worth 1.9 billion dollars to China, accounting for 74.6% of the total soybean export value [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. [7] Summary by Category Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8420, with a basis of 180, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400. [3] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9050, with a basis of 68, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [5] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100. [5] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9700, with a basis of 79, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [6] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [6] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 9800. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production decline season. [7] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [7] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Items include import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned. [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests caution as the oils and fats market may experience a correction after the cooling of macro - sentiment, and recommends a wait - and - see approach [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Spot Price Information - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Tianjin was 9070, down 50 from July 28; in Zhangjiagang it was 9020, down 50; and in Huangpu it was 8920, down 50 [1]. - **Grade I Soybean Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Tianjin was 8270, up 20 from July 28; in Zhangjiagang it was 8370, up 20; and in Huangpu it was 8320, up 20 [1]. - **Grade IV Rapeseed Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Zhangjiagang was 9590, up 50 from July 28; in Wuhan it was 9610, up 50; and in Chengdu it was 9820, up 50 [1]. Futures Data - **Contract Spreads**: On July 29, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 744, up 82 from July 28; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1266, down 20 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On July 29, 2025, palm oil warehouse receipts were 570, unchanged; soybean oil warehouse receipts were 21113, down 382; and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487, unchanged [1]. Palm Oil Supply and Demand Information - **Indonesia**: In May, due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. Exports reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% year - on - year increase. May's crude palm oil production was 4.17 million tons, lower than April but a 7.2% increase from last year [2]. - **Malaysia**: From July 1 - 20, the yield per unit area increased 7.03% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased 0.16% month - on - month, and production increased 6.19% month - on - month. Export data from different institutions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous month [2]. - **India**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased 61% month - on - month to 953,000 tons, the highest in 11 months [2]. Other Information - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. The flowering rate was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 26% [2]. - **Australian Rapeseed**: Australian rapeseed is expected to enter the domestic market, which will alleviate the shortage of rapeseed imports caused by the tense China - Canada relationship [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market Situation**: On July 28, ICE rapeseed futures weakened due to the decline of some competitive vegetable oil prices and the good weather in Canada boosting the yield expectation of current field crops. The U.S. soybean good rate is at a high level in the same period, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks are ongoing, and the market is closely watching whether a trade agreement can be reached [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the domestic market, the high probability of oil mills operating and the continuous inventory accumulation of soybean meal suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. There is an expectation of a decline in pig inventory and the government's emphasis on reducing the use of soybean meal, which reduces the demand expectation. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases brings support to the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are scarce, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand for rapeseed meal provides some support. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to fluctuate weakly [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined in July 1 - 25, which restricts palm oil prices. However, the significant increase in Indonesian exports, low inventory levels, and positive news in the U.S. and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In the domestic market, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills restricts market prices. But the decrease in the oil mill operation rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply - side pressure. Supported by the strengthening of soybean oil, rapeseed oil prices rose synchronously, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9492 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged; the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 696.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 3.4 Canadian dollars; and the active contract of rapeseed is 5140 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (9 - 1) is 50 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (9 - 1) is 281 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 134 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 130 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 196655 lots, down 4683 lots; those of rapeseed meal are 453220 lots, down 15106 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 19614 lots, up 3865 lots; for rapeseed meal are 19712 lots, down 5128 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9540 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the average price is 9580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 4948.52 yuan/ton, down 32.85 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8340 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8920 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Price Differences**: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 570 yuan/ton, unchanged; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 320 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The oil - meal ratio is 3.63, up 0.02 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed in some regions is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 14.93%, down 0.79%. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 185 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.55 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.9 million tons, up 0.7 million tons. In the East China region, rapeseed oil inventory is 56.27 million tons, down 2.18 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory is 33.41 million tons, down 1.72 million tons. In the Guangxi region, rapeseed oil inventory is 5.55 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; in the South China region, rapeseed meal inventory is 26.1 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 3.27 million tons, up 0.36 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 3.43 million tons, up 1.11 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The current - month production of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the current - month production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The current - month total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.53%, up 0.66%; that of at - the - money put options is 24.53%, up 0.66%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.48%, down 0.04%; that of at - the - money put options is 16.48%, down 0.04% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 15.79%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 16.15%, down 0.57%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.14%, up 0.24%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.28%, up 0.14% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 28, ICE rapeseed futures weakened due to the decline of some competitive vegetable oil prices and the good weather in Canada boosting the yield expectation of current field crops. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed down 4.90 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 695.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good rate of U.S. soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, 68% in the previous week, and 67% in the same period last year. The good rate of U.S. soybeans is still at a high level in the same period, and the weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest [2].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - This week, the prices of domestic oil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract closed at 8,144 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the P2509 palm oil contract closed at 8,936 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract closed at 9,457 yuan/ton, down 1.35% [5][30]. 2. Important Information Palm Oil - The president of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said that Indonesia's palm oil exports in 2025 may fall from 29.5 million tons last year to 28 million tons, while the production of crude palm oil is expected to increase to 50 million tons, up from 48.2 million tons last year [6][30]. - Malaysian palm oil prices fell 0.93%. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from July 1 - 25 was 896,484 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.22% [6][30]. Soybean Oil - As of July 20, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 62% (47% last week, 63% last year, and a historical average of 63%), and the good - to - excellent rate was 68% (70% a week ago, 68% last year). US soybeans fell 1.28% this week [7][30]. 3. Spot Analysis - As of July 24, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,310 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at an average level compared to the past five years [9]. - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [10]. - As of July 24, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,540 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [12]. 4. Other Data - As of July 23, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 1.237 million tons, and the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 569,000 tons [16]. - As of July 24, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,756,740 tons [19]. - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 144 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [20][21]. - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 48 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [23]. 5. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, some domestic commodities rose significantly under the policy stimulus, but the oil futures prices remained stable and fluctuated. The supply - demand fundamentals of the Malaysian palm oil market are weak, lacking the impetus for active price increases [31]. - From the arrival schedule of soybeans in China, the arrival of soybeans from July to September is sufficient, and factories will continue to maintain high - volume crushing. The operating rate of key domestic oil mills remains high, with sufficient soybean oil supply, general downstream demand, and a rapid increase in domestic oil inventories. It is more likely that domestic oils will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [8][31].

油脂日报 | 2025-07-17 供需结构稳定，油脂震荡运行 策略 中性 风险 政策变化 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8722.00元/吨，环比变化+14元，幅度+0.16%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8042.00 元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.37%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9470.00元/吨，环比变化+66.00元，幅度+0.70%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8790.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.57%，现货基差P09+68.00，环比变 化+36.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8200.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.49%，现货基差Y09+158.00， 环比变化+10.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9590.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.74%，现货基差 OI09+120.00，环比变化+4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：俄罗斯农业咨询机构Sovecon表示，已将2025年谷物总产量预测上调至1.305亿吨，较此前预期 的1.295亿吨有所增加。Sovecon表示，俄罗斯小麦产量预测已从此前预期的 ...

2025 年 7 月 15 日 棕榈油：产地复产存疑，等待矛盾演化 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 SEA：印度 6 月棕榈油进口量环比激增 60%至 955683 吨，豆油进口量下降 9.8%至 359504 吨，葵花籽 油进口量增长 17.8%至 216141 吨。印度 6 月植物油进口总量为 1549825 吨，较 5 月的 1187068 吨增长 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,748 | 0.76% | 8,788 | 0.46% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,994 | 0.10% | 8,020 | 0.33% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,424 | -0.16% | 9,474 | 0.53% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,232 | 1.37% | 4,228 | -0.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: It is in a pattern of weak current situation but strong future expectations. The short - term pressure comes from the复产 situation. If there is excessive inventory accumulation from August to September or continuous poor demand sentiment in China and India, it is in the seasonally short - allocated period, with the 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy as the main approach. The price pressure still has room and time to release due to the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and potential downward pressure on crude oil. However, if the crude oil price center rises later, the weak fundamentals will not lead to much downward space. There are potential long - term positives in production and demand, and there may be opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels at the end of the third quarter [2][6]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is also in a state of weak current situation and strong future expectations. The inventory may reach a high point in July, and the opening of soybean meal imports may tighten the supply of soybean oil. After the third quarter, if there is no actual purchase of US soybeans, there is a large upward space for the crushing profit and Brazilian premium in October. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, while observing the expected change of the palm oil inventory inflection point and the change of the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5]. 3. Summary by Directory **Last Week's View and Logic** - **Palm Oil**: Its fundamental situation changed little, mainly following the fluctuations of crude oil and US soybean oil under the influence of the sentiment of the US spending bill. The 09 contract of palm oil rose 1.15% last week [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The weak current - situation trading of domestic soybean oil continued. When US soybeans and crude oil rose together, soybean oil was not significantly driven, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrowed. The 09 contract of soybean oil fell 0.72% last week [1]. **This Week's View and Logic** - **Palm Oil**: The market lacks clear trading contradictions. It shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern following crude oil and US soybean oil. The continuous increase in Malaysia's production from June to August is uncertain, and the 2025 production is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons. There is a risk that the production from July to August may be lower than that of the same period last year. The supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and the inventory - reduction expectation in Malaysia in June is very small. In Indonesia, the price of various palm oils and fruit bunches is high, and the sentiment of traders is relatively positive. The US biodiesel policy will lead to a reduction of at least 1.4 million tons of US soybean oil supply in the 25/26 period, which will drive the upward movement of the international oil market. However, it has limited improvement on the recent fundamentals of palm oil. There are different views on Malaysia's palm oil production this year. If the good yield in Malaysia and Indonesia continues from July to August, there will be a large inventory - accumulation pressure from August to September. If the crude oil price center rises, the downward space of palm oil will be limited [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. The inventory may reach a high point in July, and the opening of soybean meal imports may tighten the supply. After the third quarter, if there is no actual purchase of US soybeans, there is a large upward space for the crushing profit and Brazilian premium in October. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, while observing the expected change of the palm oil inventory inflection point and the change of the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5]. **Basic Market Data of Futures Contracts** - **Prices and Price Changes**: The main - continuous contract of palm oil closed at 8,472 yuan/ton, up 1.15%; the main - continuous contract of soybean oil closed at 7,944 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the main - continuous contract of rapeseed oil closed at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 1.49%. The main - continuous contract of Malaysian palm oil closed at 4,062 ringgit/ton, up 1.25%, and the main - continuous contract of CBOT soybean oil closed at 54.54 cents/pound, up 3.65% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main - continuous contract of palm oil was 2,596,094 lots, with a decrease of 406,426 lots; the open interest was 451,187 lots, with an increase of 679 lots. The trading volume of the main - continuous contract of soybean oil was 3,002,520 lots, with a decrease of 268,035 lots; the open interest was 544,238 lots, with a decrease of 20,407 lots. The trading volume of the main - continuous contract of rapeseed oil was 4,101,631 lots, with a decrease of 195,915 lots; the open interest was 323,968 lots, with an increase of 4,565 lots [8]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil for the 09 contract was 1,663 yuan/ton, up 13.59%; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil for the 09 contract was - 528 yuan/ton, down 41.18%. The 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was 0 yuan/ton, up 100%; the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil was 14 yuan/ton, down 68.18%; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 71 yuan/ton, up 1.43% [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 670 lots, an increase of 200 lots compared with last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 22,977 lots, an increase of 4,095 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 805 lots, an increase of 705 lots [8]. **Core Fundamental Data of Oils** - **Palm Oil in Producing Areas**: Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month in June, and the inventory remained flat. In Indonesia, the inventory level is not expected to rise further after the second quarter, and the price spread between Indonesia and Malaysia has increased. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 30 was 1,382,460 tons, a 4.7% increase compared with the same period last month [10][12]. - **Demand - Side Data**: India's palm oil import profit declined, and the profit of sunflower oil was significantly better. The CNF spread between soybean oil and palm oil in India rebounded rapidly. The EU's cumulative import of palm oil decreased by 270,000 tons in 2025, and the cumulative import of four major oils decreased by 540,000 tons [12][13]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of palm oil (in South China) for the 09 contract was 20, and the basis of soybean oil (in Jiangsu) declined [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the global oil and fat market operated in a complex and changeable pattern, with significant price differentiation among the three major oils and fats. The core drivers were the re - balancing of supply and demand, international trade policy games, and the transformation of the biodiesel industry. The global supply of oils and fats tended to be loose overall, while the structural evolution on the demand side became a key variable, with biodiesel policies dominating the long - term logic [4][101]. - The import volume of the domestic oil and fat market in the first half of the year was restricted by international trade frictions and customs clearance policies, and the consumption was weak overall. Inventory differentiation further highlighted structural contradictions [4][5][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 H1 Oil and Fat Market Review - In January, affected by the USDA report, CBOT soybeans rose, and domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures prices also increased. Spot - end basis prices changed accordingly [13]. - In February, palm oil futures prices soared due to Indonesia's policies and Brazil's soybean harvest progress, while soybean oil was affected by domestic soybean customs clearance and state - reserve sales, and rapeseed oil declined slightly [13]. - In March, after China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated, palm oil futures prices fell, and soybean oil futures prices fluctuated with the influence of South American soybeans [21]. - In April, palm oil and soybean oil futures prices declined due to factors such as OPEC + production increase and Brazilian soybean arrivals, while rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated [21]. - In May, palm oil futures prices fluctuated, soybean oil futures prices first rebounded and then declined, and rapeseed oil futures prices rose [27]. - In June, palm oil futures prices rebounded, soybean oil futures prices rose, and rapeseed oil futures prices fell. Spot - end basis prices generally weakened [29]. Global Oil and Fat Supply Analysis Global Soybean Supply Remains Loose - Global soybeans have had three consecutive years of production increases. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 426.8 million tons, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The global soybean ending inventory is expected to reach 125.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise to 22.08% [30][33]. - The weather in the US soybean - corn belt has improved, and the soybean good - to - excellent rate is at a good level, with a high probability of a bumper harvest [37]. Global Rapeseed Supply Recovers Significantly - In the 2024/25 season, global rapeseed production decreased due to frost in Europe and the Black Sea region. However, in the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 89.773 million tons, with significant increases in major producing countries [42][45]. - The overall growth of Canadian rapeseed is good, although there are some risks in the Manitoba region [53]. Global Palm Oil Enters the Seasonal Production Increase Period - In the first half of 2025, Malaysian palm oil production recovered after a low in January - February, and Indonesian palm oil production also reached multi - year highs in March - April [54]. - Indonesia raised the export tax on crude palm oil in May, and Malaysia lowered the export tariff in July. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy is restricted by subsidy funds [57][58]. Overseas Biodiesel Demand Analysis Global Biodiesel Production Trend - In 2025, global biodiesel production is expected to decline, with only Indonesia and Brazil showing an increase. The EU, the US, China, and India are expected to see a decrease in demand [61][62]. - Brazil will increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% starting from August 1, which will boost soybean oil consumption [62]. Current Situation of the US Biodiesel Industry - In the first half of 2025, the US biodiesel industry faced pressure from falling crude oil prices and the 45Z policy. Industry profits were poor, and production was low. However, US soybean oil exports increased [64][67]. Impact of Future US Biodiesel Policies - The proposed US RVO plan for 2026 and 2027 will significantly increase the mandatory biodiesel blending volume, and the new 45Z policy will enhance the competitive advantage of US soybean oil. If implemented, it will have a long - term positive impact on the global oil and fat market [74][75]. Domestic Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Analysis Import - From January to April 2025, domestic direct imports of soybean oil decreased, and soybean imports decreased in the first four months and then increased in May. Rapeseed oil direct imports increased, while rapeseed imports decreased. Palm oil imports decreased in the first four months, and the import volume may gradually recover after June [76][81][86]. Consumption - The overall consumption of domestic oils and fats in the first half of 2025 was weak. Soybean oil consumption was affected by supply, and consumption is expected to pick up in the second half of the year. Rapeseed oil consumption was constrained by high inventory, and palm oil consumption was affected by price differentials and is expected to increase in the second half [87][88][92]. Inventory - As of June 20, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The national commercial inventory of rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, and the palm oil inventory decreased in the first half of the year and then rebounded [93][95][100].

短期，预计 6 月马棕继续小幅累库，三季度产地仍处增产周期，棕榈油 报价或震荡偏弱运行。目前市场仍关注美国生柴的落地情况，将对盘面造成 较大扰动。当前美豆主产区天气良好，后期继续关注产地天气和季度报告。 国内豆油开始累库，但预计库存仍不会宽松。欧洲菜籽临近上市，另外加拿 大上调旧作菜籽库存，国内菜油基本面变化不大，菜油供大于求的格局持续， 不过国内菜油进入逐渐去库阶段，菜油在国内基本面边际好转的预期下以及 中加关系不确定性仍存，对菜油盘面提供一定支撑。 【策略推荐】 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、 | 行情回顾 3 | | | 二、 | 棕榈油出口表现欠佳，库存整体保持紧平衡 | 4 | | 三、 | 印度阶段性进口高峰有望来临，但本年度整体进口或将明显下滑 | 9 | | 四、 | 提议增加美国生柴义务 12 巴西上调生柴掺混至 B15，EPA | | | 五、 | 国内油脂库存持续累库 油脂基差稳中偏弱运行 ...