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鲍威尔不当救星、例外主义不再,美股向上靠什么?
海豚投研· 2025-06-23 11:47
Core Viewpoint - The overall market outlook for US stocks is expected to oscillate between a stagnant and declining trend until the end of the third quarter, with potential investment opportunities arising after a significant market correction and the opening of the US debt ceiling [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates during the June 18 meeting, reflecting a hawkish stance on economic outlook despite previous expectations [3][5] - Key updates from the Fed include a downward revision of GDP growth forecasts for the next two years, an upward adjustment of unemployment rates, and an increase in inflation expectations [5][6] - The Fed's projections suggest a stagflation-like economic outlook, with a tolerance for rising unemployment rates while maintaining a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [6][7] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong dollar remains near the weak side of its peg, with liquidity conditions expected to remain ample despite potential tightening in the future [9][11] - The current market environment indicates that even with abundant liquidity, asset selection remains critical, as evidenced by the recent IPO of Haitian Flavoring and Food, which underperformed due to high valuations despite favorable market conditions [11][12] Group 3: Portfolio Performance - The Alpha Dolphin virtual portfolio experienced a decline of 1.3% last week, underperforming compared to the S&P 500 and CSI 300 indices, but outperforming MSCI China and Hang Seng Tech [12][14] - Since its inception, the portfolio has achieved an absolute return of 88%, significantly outperforming MSCI China by 87% [14] Group 4: Individual Stock Contributions - Notable stock performances included Netflix, which rose by 1.6% due to a content partnership, and Pinduoduo, which saw a slight increase of 0.6% amid a competitive retail landscape [16] - Conversely, stocks like Google and Pop Mart faced declines of 4.6% and 12.1%, respectively, due to regulatory pressures and market competition [16]
镍周报:供给或有扰动,镍价小幅反弹-20250623
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic situation: US economic soft data shows signs of weakening, with the labor market remaining stable overall. The Fed maintains the current policy rate but emphasizes future economic uncertainty, raising inflation expectations and lowering economic growth forecasts. There are stagflation risks, and macro - pressure persists [3]. - Fundamental situation: Nickel ore prices stay high, with most Indonesian ferronickel plants in a cost - upside - down state, and some plan to cut production. Traditional terminals remain weak, stainless - steel prices decline, suppressing steel mills' restocking. New - energy consumption performs well, and overall demand is slightly weak. Supply shows signs of narrowing, but the export window is open, keeping supply at a relatively high level [3]. - Future outlook: With the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict and the potential rise in global crude oil prices, US inflation pressure may increase. Fundamentals may be revised, mainly driven by production - cut expectations due to low corporate profits. Consumption may remain stable, with traditional sectors weak and the new - energy sector potentially having an increase. Nickel prices may rebound slightly [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Summary - SHFE nickel price decreased from 119,690 yuan/ton to 118,280 yuan/ton, a drop of 1,410 yuan/ton; LME nickel price fell from 15,069 dollars/ton to 15,011 dollars/ton, a decrease of 58 dollars/ton [5]. - LME inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 681 tons to 21,669 tons [5]. - Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,650 yuan/ton, and Russian nickel premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton [5]. - High - nickel pig iron average price decreased from 947 yuan/nickel point to 942 yuan/nickel point [5]. - Stainless - steel inventory increased from 91.7 tons to 92.6 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons [5]. 2. Market Review - **Nickel ore**: Philippine nickel ore prices rose, while Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices declined. The acceptance of high - priced ore by downstream is weak, and July pre - sales transactions are scarce [6]. - **Ferronickel**: High - nickel pig iron prices dropped. Chinese ferronickel production in May increased, and imports decreased. Indonesian ferronickel production in May increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. Ferronickel may face the most pressure in the industry chain, with high upstream costs and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Nickel sulfate**: Battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices decreased. June production is expected to decline year - on - year and month - on - month. Ternary material production increased. Downstream inventory decreased, and upstream inventory increased. Nickel sulfate prices may continue to be weak [8]. - **Macro and fundamentals**: US economic soft data weakened, with consumption and output growth rates declining. The Fed maintains the current interest rate policy but raises inflation expectations and lowers economic growth forecasts. In terms of supply, domestic production capacity is stable in June, but smelter production schedules decline. In terms of consumption, new - energy vehicle sales in the first half of June increased year - on - year, but the growth rate in the second week weakened. Inventory shows a mixed trend, with LME inventory increasing and SHFE inventory decreasing [8][9][10]. 3. Industry News - Indonesia lowers the reference price for the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade in June by about 1.19% compared to the first - phase [14]. - Indonesia plans to punish a nickel park suspected of violating environmental regulations, which may affect some major nickel suppliers [14]. - Toyota Tsusho and LG Energy Solution plan to establish a joint venture for automotive battery recycling in North America, aiming to recycle valuable metals from battery waste [14]. 4. Relevant Charts The report provides charts on domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [16][18].
广发早知道:汇总版-20250620
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 00:58
广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88830760 E-Mail:zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录: 金融衍生品: 金融期货: 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属: 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货: 有色金属: 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属: 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品: 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工: 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品: 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 20 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292 号 刘珂(投资咨询资格:Z0016336) 电话:020-88818026 邮箱:qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁(投资咨询资格:Z0016628) 电话:020- 88818017 邮箱:yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波(投资咨询资格:Z0010559) 电话:020-81868743 邮箱:zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供参考,请务必阅读正文之后的免责声 ...
美联储继续暂停降息,滞涨担忧利好黄金走势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-20 00:38
一方面,点阵图给出的降息预期较3月边际偏鹰。虽然年内维持两次降息不变,但2026年降息预期从2次 变为1次。此外,支持年内不降息的官员数量从4名增加至7名(共19名),反映出美联储官员对待降息 更加谨慎。 另一方面,"滞涨"预期有所增加。美联储在6月上修了2025年和2026年的失业率和PCE的预测,同时下 修了经济预期。其中名义PCE和核心PCE均回升至3%以上,当前美国核心PCE同比2.52%,名义PCE同 比2.15%。 会后鲍威尔称,关税对通胀的影响需要时间传导,预计未来几个月通胀将明显上升;当前利率并不算很 高,鉴于通胀形势,仍需要货币政策保持一定的限制性。 6月19日凌晨,美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议,宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持 在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 美联储此次维持利率不变,符合市场预期,但表态略显鹰派。 展望后市,光大证券认为,6月议息会议后,市场降息预期变化不大。利率期货隐含的全年降息次数仍 维持2次,7月降息概率维持10%左右,9月降息概率维持70%左右。未来仍需关注贸易谈判结果、减税 法案的落地及伊以局势的 ...
2025年6月美国FOMC会议:维持鹰派立场,内部分歧加剧
Donghai Securities· 2025-06-19 08:12
Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the June FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations[2] - The dot plot indicates a more hawkish stance compared to March, with increased internal dissent among officials regarding future rate decisions[2] - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 were downgraded by 30 basis points to 1.4%, while inflation predictions were raised by 30 basis points to 3.0% for PCE and 3.1% for core PCE[2] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Outlook - Chairman Powell revised the "transitory inflation" narrative, acknowledging the potential for persistent inflation effects and rising inflation expectations[2] - The unemployment rate forecast was increased by 10 basis points to 4.5%, indicating concerns about economic conditions[2] - Private final consumption remains strong at a growth rate of 2.5%, reflecting confidence in employment and economic growth[2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. stock markets initially fell but later stabilized, while bond yields rose before slightly retreating[2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July decreased from 14.5% to 10.3%, while the likelihood of a cut in September increased from 54.8% to 60.1%[2] - Risks include potential inflation increases due to tariff negotiations and unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy[2]
美联储按兵不动 经济与通胀预期现滞涨风险
智通财经网· 2025-06-18 22:26
美联储在声明中表示,美国经济整体仍以"稳健步伐"增长,就业市场维持"低失业率",但通胀仍"略显 高企"。尽管近期贸易政策与中东局势引发市场波动,委员会认为经济前景的不确定性"有所缓和,但仍 处于高位"。 鲍威尔在会后记者会上表示,当前政策"具备充足的空间和耐心",美联储将继续观望经济数据演 化,"在作出任何调整前等待更明确的信号"。 智通财经APP获悉,美联储在周三(6月)的议息会议上决定维持联邦基金利率在4.25%至4.5%的目标区间 不变,符合市场此前的普遍预期。这也是自去年12月以来,连续第六次维持利率不变。尽管美联储指出 未来通胀上行与经济增长放缓并存的风险,委员会仍维持"年内降息两次"的预期。 此次会议发布的"点阵图"显示,美联储官员对利率走向的看法仍存在显著分歧。19位与会者中有7人表 示今年不支持降息,比3月时的4人有所增加。然而,委员会对政策声明的投票结果仍为一致通过,显示 美联储内部在应对当前宏观环境方面保持一定程度共识。 与此同时,美联储对中长期利率路径进行了调整:削减了对2026年和2027年各一次的降息预期,意味着 2025年以后降息节奏可能趋缓。最新的预测显示,到2027年,联邦基金 ...
美联储主席鲍威尔:关税影响正在显现 利率政策需继续观望
智通财经网· 2025-06-18 22:26
智通财经APP获悉,美联储鲍威尔在最新新闻发布会上重申,美联储目前最关心的依旧是"让经济稳健 运行并保持物价稳定"。面对记者转述总统特朗普长期对"利率迟迟不降"的批评,鲍威尔拒绝正面回 应,只表示:"这对我们而言并不复杂,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的所有成员都希望看到一个稳固的 经济和稳定的物价,这就是全部重点。" 与此同时,FOMC将今明两年失业率预测小幅上调,并首次在公开场合提及"挑战性场景",当通胀回落 速度慢于就业市场降温时,联储或陷入目标冲突。"若出现这种情况,我们会考虑离双重目标各有多 远,以及各自回归正常的时间维度。" 随着通胀、失业率双升的可能性增加,市场对滞涨担忧升温。JanusHenderson投资组合经理DanSiluk指 出,通胀预测上修意味着激进降息空间受限,而若就业继续走软,美联储或被迫在两难中权衡。 鲍威尔则给出了"静观其变"的基调:"在进一步了解经济路径之前,我们拥有充足的耐心。"FOMC维持 联邦基金利率在4.25%–4.5%区间不变,并保留"年内两次降息"的前瞻指引,但鲍威尔明言时点尚无定 论。 鲍威尔警告,4月初宣布的大规模关税仍在链式传导:"关税渗透到消费者端需要时 ...
关税再次生变,预计短期震荡偏弱
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 09:06
关税再次生变,预计短期震荡偏弱 研究员:王艳红 投资咨询号:Z0010675 研究员:袁 棋 投资咨询号:Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观:美国5月芝加哥PMI录得40.5,远低于预期值45和前值44.6,5月一年期通胀率预期终值录得6.6%,低于预期值7.1%,但仍属于偏高位置,滞 涨概率加大;国内汽车价格战遭到官方制止,库存偏高经济偏弱的情况下,有待相关刺激政策出台;特朗普称将把进口钢铁和铝关税翻倍至50%,多 国进行对等关税回应,贸易关税不确定性再次增强。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结: 电解铝-产业基本面总结: 供给:4月,在产产能环比减少390万吨,开工率大幅下滑;矿石端,国内到港量维持正常,几内亚出港量暂维持正常 进口: 2025年4月中国氧化铝净出口24.93万吨,环比小幅减少,连续13个月净出口;进口转为小幅盈利 需求:电解铝在产产能持续增加且维持高位,短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润:氧化铝目前冶炼成本在每吨2997,每吨盈利313元,成本小幅上移,利润小幅走阔;烧碱价格最新价3700元/吨,周度环比上涨50元/吨 ...
服务PMI预警滞涨风险
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-06-06 01:14
2025 年 6 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 服务 PMI 预警滞涨风险 2025 年 6 月 6 日 美国 5 月服务业 PMI 意外收缩,需求大幅走弱,物价扩张速度创 22 年以来新 高,经济面临滞涨风险。制造业 PMI 收缩幅度扩大,交付时间变长,关税同时对 需求和供应链产生扰动。进口指数大幅下跌,自有库存转向收缩,美国企业为规 避关税而提前囤货的影响可能逐渐消退。下半年美国经济预计将小幅滞涨。未来 3 个月,政策环境仍不友好,白宫可能延续施压交易对手,美联储可能继续暂停 降息。第 4 季度政策环境可能改善,美国与主要贸易伙伴可能达成协定,通胀见 顶回落,美联储重启降息,白宫重心转向减税去监管。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报告 1 MN 服务业 PMI 近 1 年来首 ...
【UNFX课堂】滞涨的阴影:70年代的美国经济、市场表现与政策博弈
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 03:22
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of stagflation, characterized by the coexistence of high inflation and high unemployment, which challenges traditional economic theories and policies [2][9]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Stagflation - Stagflation is defined as an economic condition where stagnation (slow or negative growth) and inflation (rising prices) occur simultaneously [3]. - It disrupts the traditional trade-off between inflation and unemployment, leading to a complex economic environment [2]. Group 2: Causes of Stagflation - Supply shocks, such as sudden increases in oil prices, are classic causes of stagflation, leading to higher costs and reduced economic activity [2][7]. - Poor economic policies, including overly loose monetary and fiscal measures, can exacerbate inflation without addressing stagnation [2][7]. - Other contributing factors include restrictive production policies, wage-price spirals, and self-fulfilling inflation expectations [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The 1970s in the U.S. serve as a historical example of stagflation, marked by high inflation rates reaching nearly 15% and unemployment rates exceeding 8% [6][8]. - The stock market suffered significantly during this period, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing little to no growth, and many previously popular stocks collapsing [6][8]. - Bond markets also faced challenges, with rising interest rates leading to falling bond prices and negative real yields [8][12]. Group 4: Policy Responses to Stagflation - Initial policy responses included price and wage controls, which failed to resolve underlying issues and led to market distortions [8]. - The later approach involved aggressive monetary tightening under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, which successfully reduced inflation but resulted in a severe economic recession [8][9]. - The experience of the 1970s highlights the dilemma policymakers face: stimulating the economy can worsen inflation, while tightening can deepen stagnation [9]. Group 5: Implications for Current Economic Conditions - Understanding the causes and historical responses to stagflation is crucial for analyzing current economic conditions in the U.S. and globally [10].