Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global stock market will yield positive returns by 2026, although the forecasted index return rate will be lower than in 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The expected stock market return rate in USD is 13%, with a total return including dividends of 15%, primarily driven by profit growth rather than valuation increases [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in March and June of next year [1] Group 2: Comparative Market Performance - The U.S. stock market has underperformed compared to other markets for the first time in 15 years, with higher returns coming from Europe, Asia, and emerging markets [1] - This trend of U.S. stock market underperformance is expected to continue, with a slight lag anticipated again in 2026 [1] Group 3: Sector Insights - There is a noted shift in technology capital expenditure towards "old economy" sectors, which is expected to boost growth prospects in infrastructure-related industries [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month forecast for the European STOXX index from 595 points to 615 points [1]

- The report covers the period from December 8, 2025, to December 12, 2025[2][10] - The A-share market showed limited incremental funds and a characteristic of stock game due to seasonal tightening of funds towards the end of the year[3][10] - In the stock market, the style was biased towards small-cap and growth, with decreased volatility in the small-cap style and increased volatility in the growth style[11][13] - The market structure showed a decrease in industry excess return dispersion, industry rotation speed, and the proportion of rising constituent stocks[11][13] - The trading concentration increased for the top 100 stocks but decreased for the top 5 industries[11][13] - Market activity showed a decline in both market volatility and turnover rate[12][13] - In the commodity market, trend strength increased, especially in precious metals and non-ferrous metals, while the basis momentum rose in the energy and chemical sectors but fell in others[26][33] - Volatility increased in all sectors except energy and chemicals, with precious metals maintaining high volatility, and liquidity rose slightly in all sectors except black metals[26][33] - In the options market, the implied volatility of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 further declined to historical lows, with the put skew decreasing for the SSE 50 and increasing for the CSI 1000[37] - In the convertible bond market, the market showed low volatility, with the premium rate of bonds convertible at par remaining high, the pure bond premium rate decreasing, and the proportion of low premium convertible bonds declining[41]

Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the current bull market from September 2024 has similarities and differences compared to the liquidity bull market from May 2014 to June 2015, particularly in market sentiment metrics [1] - The current bull market's trading volume and turnover rate are similar to the peak levels of the previous bull market, but indicators related to funds, valuation, and risk premium still show a gap [1][24] - A comprehensive sentiment index is constructed from five dimensions: volume, price, funds, valuation, and risk premium, with a total of 12 indicators used to measure market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The comprehensive market sentiment index currently stands at 63.9%, reflecting a decrease of 8.0% from the previous period [2] - The trading volume indicator is at 87.3% and turnover rate at 83.9%, both showing slight decreases [2] - The number of stocks rising on the day is at 28.5%, a significant drop of 60.0%, indicating weaker price sentiment [2] Group 3 - Historical backtesting shows that the sentiment index closely follows stock index trends and has leading characteristics, with the sentiment index peaking before the stock index in both the 2014-2015 and 2024 bull markets [6] - The first bull market's sentiment index peaked at 95.5%, while the current bull market has reached a maximum of 78.7% [17][18] Group 4 - The current bull market's sentiment indicators for volume are at levels comparable to the previous bull market's peak, while indicators for funds, valuation, and risk premium remain below previous highs [19][21][22] - The strong trading volume is attributed to declining yields in the bond market, deposits, and real estate, which have drawn significant capital into the equity market [24] Group 5 - The sentiment indicators suggest that the current bull market is structurally complex, with strong volume metrics but weaker indicators for funds, valuation, and risk premium [23] - The technology sector shows significantly higher sentiment compared to the overall market, indicating a structural shift within the current bull market [32]

银行板块则受益于可观的增量资金，一方面被动指数的持续扩容带来了稳定的资金流入，银行高权重的 特征仍将持续推动资金的流入，另一方面银行板块低波高股息的特征更易获得险资等中长期资金的青 睐，结合监管一系列引导中长期资金入市的措施，预计银行的股息配置价值吸引力仍将持续。 值得一提的是，在今年以来的牛市行情中，券商与银行都是"人少的地方"。尤其是券商板块年内明显滞 涨，截至今日，券商ETF（512000）跟踪的中证全指证券公司指数年内仅微涨1.78%，同期上证指数、 深证成指、创业板指分别上涨15.4%、25.9%和46.52%，券商表现明显落后于大盘，与高增业绩显著背 离，补涨需求强烈！ | 序号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首日] 本年初 | | | | | | [区间尾日] 最新收盘日 | | | | | | [単位] % ↑ | | | 399975.SZ | 1 证券公司 | | | 1.7800 | | 2 000001.SH 上证指数 | | | | 15.3996 | | 3 399001.S ...

华尔街正流传一个令人不安的猜想：在经历多年辉煌涨幅后，美国股市未来十年可能基本持平。 "即便对于明年，历史数据也不容乐观：标普500指数在连续3年涨幅超15%后，年均回报率将比历史均 值低2.3个百分点。投资者可能需要国内生产总值（GDP）和每股收益（EPS）超预期，才能避免第七 个'失落的十年'，"美国银行在给客户的报告中写道。 阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo）首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克（Torsten Sløk）也表示，他预计未来十 年标普500指数将相对持平。他周四表示，这一预测基于标普500指数当前的远期市盈率水平。 "标普500指数远期市盈率与后续十年年化回报率的历史关系表明，投资者应预期未来十年标普500指数 回报率为零，"斯洛克说。 周四，美股涨幅仍在持续。由于投资者担忧甲骨文（Oracle）财报而撤离科技股，转而推动标普500指 数（SPX）和道指（DJI）创下历史新高。 但越来越多预测人士认为，这场盛宴可能即将落幕，他们指出市场可能受两大因素拖累： 首先是估值高企。美股估值正处于历史高位。据全球市盈率（World PE Ratio）分析，标普500指数当前 市盈率约为27倍，高于5年均值 ...

Group 1 - The global macroeconomic environment has gradually improved since 2025, leading to a steady upward trend in the A-share market, with major indices like the CSI 300 and ChiNext Index rising over 20% [2] - The technology, consumer, and new energy sectors have been the main drivers of this market rally, with daily trading volume increasing by approximately 15% compared to the same period last year [2] - Equity funds have benefited from asset value growth and optimized investment strategies, with average returns for equity mixed funds exceeding 25% this year, and some thematic funds, such as those focused on artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing, seeing gains over 40% [2] Group 2 - The Dachen Yuexiang Life Mixed A fund, managed by Qi Weizhong, has underperformed despite the bullish market, with a return of -12.18% since its inception on December 10, 2021 [5] - The fund's heavy allocation to traditional consumer sectors like liquor and duty-free has not performed well, as these sectors face demand ceilings, while emerging consumption areas have not been adequately represented in the portfolio [5] - The fund's performance has been negatively impacted by the weakening competitive edge of some leading companies in its holdings, while new consumer brands have rapidly gained market share [5] Group 3 - The Dachen Consumption Selected Stock A fund has also struggled, with a return of -18.82% since its inception on May 24, 2021, and a year-to-date return of 16.55% [18] - The fund has seen a consistent decline in its asset size, with net assets decreasing to 2.69 billion yuan by September 30, 2025, due to ongoing redemptions [30] - The fund's investment strategy has been criticized for not adapting to the significant changes in the consumer industry, necessitating a reassessment of its thematic focus and investment approach [5][30]

行情的级别与走向 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 research.95579.com 2 2025-11-26 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% 算法说明 区间最大涨幅：该时间段内从最低点到最高点曾经涨过的最大幅度 第一轮牛市：2005年6月6日至2007年10月16日 数据及算法说明 数据说明 若无特别说明，本文所用数据时间段均为2005至2025年11月14日 %% research.95579.com 3 第二轮牛市：2012年12月4日至2015年6月3日 第三轮牛市：2018年10月19日至2021年7月21日 本轮牛市：2024年2月5日至2025年11月14日 剔除检测服务行业 以一轮周线级别的行情的起点和终点定义牛熊市 全面牛市 vs 结构性牛市：不在不均，而在寡 通常认为前两轮为全面牛市，第三轮为结构性牛市 表1：四轮牛市中长江一级行业区间最大涨幅 | 名称 | 第一轮区间最大涨幅 | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown lasted for 43 days, breaking the previous record of 35 days, and has resulted in an estimated loss of $1.5 trillion [1] - The temporary funding bill signed by Trump only includes three annual budget appropriations, leaving nine unresolved, which may lead to another shutdown after January 30, 2026 [1] - The uncertainty from the shutdown is expected to delay long-term investment decisions by businesses and reduce consumer spending, potentially weakening the intrinsic growth of the U.S. economy [1] Group 2 - The gold price closed down 0.29% at 953.2 yuan per gram, indicating a slight decline in the precious metals market [3] - The U.S. economy and job market are facing challenges due to the government shutdown and trade tensions, leading to increased policy uncertainty from the Federal Reserve [4] - Central banks are increasing gold holdings, and there is a potential for a bull market in precious metals similar to the 1970s, although price corrections may occur after reaching new highs [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong bullish trend, with significant foreign investment interest and optimistic forecasts from major financial institutions regarding future index performance [3][4][7]. Foreign Investment Trends - Goldman Sachs predicts a 30% increase in major Chinese stock indices by the end of 2027, driven by 12% trend-based profit growth and a 5%-10% valuation adjustment [4]. - Morgan Stanley holds a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, with a total investment of approximately 75.70 billion yuan across 154 companies [7]. - JPMorgan has doubled its A-share holdings to approximately 79.31 billion yuan, indicating strong confidence in the market [10]. Institutional Holdings - As of October 30, 2025, Goldman Sachs has increased its holdings in A-shares to approximately 93.42 billion yuan, with 14 stocks valued over 1 billion yuan [6]. - Morgan Stanley's top holdings include companies like Si Yuan Electric and Jinko Solar, with significant year-to-date price increases [9]. - Barclays Bank has invested around 29.04 billion yuan in A-shares, focusing on technology, healthcare, and mining sectors [13]. Performance of Key Stocks - Goldman Sachs' top holdings include Hao Wei Group, Hua Gong Technology, and Xie Chuang Data, with average stock price increases of 52.97% this year [5][6]. - Morgan Stanley's top-performing stocks include Bei Fang Long Chuang and Shi Kong Technology, with increases of 360.29% and 341.75% respectively [8][9]. - UBS has invested heavily in San Huan Group, with a holding value of approximately 85.30 billion yuan, reflecting a focus on electronic components [16][17]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment among foreign investors is positive, with many believing that the A-share market is still in the early stages of a bull market, supported by ongoing asset reallocation by Chinese households [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The current market trend shows similarities to the 2013-2017 period, characterized by a weak fundamental environment and stimulus policies, leading to potential investment opportunities in certain sectors [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the second half of 2014, the securities market experienced a significant rise, marking the beginning of a bull market [2]. - In the first half of 2015, small-cap and growth stocks surged, reaching bubble valuations by June 2015, followed by a sharp decline [2]. - From 2016 to 2017, a recovery in fundamentals led to increases in large-cap value and consumer stocks, surpassing previous highs by the end of 2017 [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The fundamental environment is currently weak, with A-share listed companies experiencing a year-on-year decline in profits in 2024 [3]. - Stimulus policies were introduced in September 2024, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut, which included significant reductions in deposit rates [3]. Group 3: Recovery Signs - From late September to November 2024, the securities market saw a strong rebound, returning to normal valuations, with small-cap stocks showing robust growth starting in 2025 [4]. - Early signs of recovery in certain sectors, such as technology and pharmaceuticals, have been noted, with significant year-on-year profit growth [4]. Group 4: Key Differences - Unlike 2015, where leveraged financing led to a bubble in small-cap stocks, current management of leveraged financing remains strict [5]. - The real estate market is still in a bearish cycle, contrasting with the significant price increases observed in 2016-2017, which supported the real estate industry chain [5].