Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The continuous weakening of the US dollar has led to generally strong commodity prices. A strike at a 344,000 - ton zinc smelter in Peru has affected production and boosted zinc prices. However, the spot market has become increasingly冷清, with a significant decline in spot premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped significantly, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. Although the upward space is limited, the zinc price still maintains a strong trend. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and if social inventory continues to increase, it will exert significant downward pressure [3] Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$17.39/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 65 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 90 yuan/ton to 22,220 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 35 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton to 22,190 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 75 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,090 yuan/ton and closed at 22,240 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,109 lots, an increase of 9,578 lots, and the open interest was 135,638 lots, an increase of 5,773 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,030 - 22,400 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 79,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 119,850 tons, a decrease of 3,025 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The weakening US dollar and the strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter have pushed up zinc prices. However, the spot market is cold, with a significant decline in premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. TC remains stable, and overseas zinc ore shipments are increasing. Although the upward space is limited, the strong trend remains. There is still smelting profit, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the increase in social inventory will bring downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - V2509 rose and then fell, closing at 4,833 yuan/ton. The supply side was affected by the extended impact of previously shut - down devices such as Qilu Petrochemical and Fujian Wanhua. Last week, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.47% to 79.25% week - on - week. - On the demand side, last week, the downstream PVC operating rate decreased by 0.47% to 45.8% week - on - week. Among them, the pipe operating rate decreased by 1.44% to 42.94% week - on - week, and the profile operating rate decreased by 0.5% to 37.55% week - on - week. - In terms of inventory, last week, the PVC social inventory decreased by 2.59% to 573,600 tons week - on - week, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. - In June, there were many domestic PVC annual inspection devices. This week, the 200,000 - ton device of Henan Yuhang was planned for annual inspection, and the capacity utilization rate was expected to continue to decline. - The domestic downstream demand was in the off - season, and the Indian market was affected by uncertainties such as BIS certification and anti - dumping duties and the rainy season. - In terms of cost, domestic calcium carbide shut - down devices remained, and some devices had indefinite production restrictions, supporting the calcium carbide price. The import volume of ethylene decreased, and the price might be strongly sorted. PVC had weak supply and demand, and the strong cost provided support for the futures price. The daily K - line of V2509 should pay attention to the support near 4,790 and the pressure near 4,900 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC was 4,833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan. The trading volume was 834,032 lots, a decrease of 360,614 lots. The open interest was 962,017 lots, a decrease of 16,925 lots. - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 762,413 lots, an increase of 6,957 lots. The sell order volume was 778,513 lots, an increase of 9,691 lots. The net buy order volume was - 16,100 lots, a decrease of 2,734 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,755.38 yuan/ton, unchanged. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,955 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,822.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 176 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 178 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 79.25%, a decrease of 1.47%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.77%, a decrease of 0.54%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 72.59%, a decrease of 3.94%. - The total social inventory of PVC was 354,800 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 312,200 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons. The total social inventory in the South China region was 42,600 tons, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.86, a decrease of 0.1. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 178.3584 million square meters, an increase of 48.3938 million square meters. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.2031505 billion square meters, an increase of 66.0961 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 148.7313 billion yuan, an increase of 387.111 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 14.06%, an increase of 0.04%. The 40 - day historical volatility was 16.55%, an increase of 0.04%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.59%, a decrease of 0.18%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.58%, a decrease of 0.19% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 17, the cash - spot price of Changzhou PVCSG5 in the warehouse remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4,720 to 4,790 yuan/ton. - From June 6th to 12th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.25%, a decrease of 1.47% compared with the previous period. - As of June 12th, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 2.59% to 573,600 tons week - on - week and decreased by 36.83% year - on - year [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic spot prices and transaction spreads have shown fluctuations, with significant changes in the market sentiment due to easing U.S. inflation and favorable tariff policies [1][2] - The overall market sentiment has improved, supported by a series of stimulus policies in China, including interest rate cuts and capital market reforms, leading to a marginal macroeconomic improvement [1] - Social inventory continues to decline, although the pace of inventory reduction has slowed down, indicating resilience in the market despite high copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side is facing challenges as rising copper prices have suppressed downstream orders, with customers primarily focused on inventory digestion, leading to a noticeable decline in new orders [1][2] - The current market is characterized by a tight supply situation, but the demand release has not been significant, resulting in a cautious purchasing stance from downstream buyers [2] - The expectation for next week’s price spread is between a premium of 200 to 300 yuan/ton, reflecting ongoing concerns about demand weakness [1][2] Group 3: Inventory Changes - As of May 16, the total national electrolytic copper social inventory is 128,000 tons, showing an increase of 10,100 tons from the previous week [3][5] - In Guangdong, the electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 800 tons to 13,600 tons, while in Shanghai, it increased by 6,700 tons to 98,200 tons [3][5] - Global inventory, including the Shanghai bonded zone, stands at 527,000 tons, which is an increase of 8,200 tons compared to the previous week [5]

Group 1 - After the Labor Day holiday, Shanghai aluminum futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 19,300 yuan/ton, driven by market uncertainty and expectations of weaker future demand [1] - Analysts indicate that the bearish sentiment in the market is partly due to the transition from the peak consumption season to a period of lower demand, as well as the impact of U.S. tariff policies on exports [1][3] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains at historically high levels, while downstream processing rates have begun to decline, leading to an accumulation of nearly 40,000 tons of aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventory during the holiday [1][3] Group 2 - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum is around 16,500 yuan/ton, influenced by a significant drop in alumina prices, which may exert further downward pressure on aluminum prices amid weakening consumption expectations [3][5] - The macroeconomic environment, including potential monetary easing and the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, could provide some support for aluminum prices, although concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on global demand persist [4][5] - The market is closely monitoring the performance of inventory and the spot market, as well as the upstream alumina prices, to gauge future trends in aluminum pricing [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of the main varieties in the market shows different characteristics. For the livestock and soft commodities sectors, the supply of pigs is strong and demand is weak in the short - term, while the sugar market is in a state of weak oscillation. In the energy - chemical sector, the oil price has a complex supply - demand relationship and is expected to be under pressure in the medium - term, and the PVC market has marginal improvement in fundamentals but lacks a strong upward drive [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Pig**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The pig price center is moving down, and the 07 and 09 contracts on the futures market are still bearish. It presents a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom for downside. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in the cumulative sales option products [1][2]. - **Sugar**: Both the short - term and medium - term trends are weakly oscillating. International factors such as Brazil's new - season sugar supply increase and India's production reduction co - exist. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been fulfilled, and there may be additional imports. It is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, pay attention to the phased rebound, and in the medium - term, it will run under pressure. The supply side has certain supporting factors, and the demand side has some positive signals, but the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to buy futures contracts and buy put options for protection [4][5]. - **PVC**: It shows a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, and lacks an upward drive in the medium - term. The cost has rebounded, supply has increased slightly, demand has some speculative factors, and inventory has decreased. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on PVC at an appropriate time [6][7].