南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 吉隆坡报道 数据显示，马来西亚今年第三季度GDP增长5.2%，高于二季度的4.4%。马来西亚总理安瓦尔表示，凭借国内强劲需求和对高增长高价值领域 的持续投资等，国家稳步朝着今年底实现4%至4.8%的增长目标迈进。 在全球经济面临众多不确定性的背景下，马来西亚靠着怎样的经济结构保持增长韧性？随着马来西亚政府大力推动产业链向高端化转型，在马 运营的企业将迎来哪些发展机遇？其中，持续深耕当地市场的中资企业，在转型中扮演着怎样的角色？ (马来西亚国家石油公司双塔 资料图） 在马来西亚槟城的深圳垦拓流体生产车间，一幅活力迸发的现代智能制造图景正徐徐展开：年轻员工们凝神操作着精密仪器，进行高精度流体 部件的组装；在数字系统操作区，团队成员专注应对实时数据与信息的高效录入。 "对马来西亚的年轻人来说，这不仅是一份工作，还是掌握先进技术的成长过程。"垦拓马来西亚总经理张记福在槟城接受21世纪经济报道记者 采访时表示，垦拓应该是马来西亚唯一一家从事流体控制领域的企业，"接触精密制造技术为当地年轻人开拓了更广阔的职业道路，也让他们 的未来充满更多可能性。" 近年来，以垦拓为代表的中国高新科技 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new bull market in Chinese equity assets, driven by a decline in systemic risks in the Chinese economy and the global AI industry trend, suggesting that historical patterns may be broken in this new market phase [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is experiencing a bull market that aligns with global equity trends, characterized by a focus on technology and resources, with valuation-driven growth and increasing market concentration [2][4]. - Historical patterns, such as the tendency for industries to not lead for more than three consecutive years, may be challenged, particularly in the technology and communication sectors [7][9]. Group 2: Profitability and Valuation - A significant adjustment in the profitability assessment framework is necessary, as A-share non-financial companies have stabilized their return on equity (ROE) for three consecutive quarters despite traditional economic sectors showing no significant improvement [6][20]. - The current market conditions suggest that A-shares may break the historical trend of not achieving valuation increases for more than two consecutive years, with expectations for continued moderate valuation growth [26][30]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The technology sector has seen a historic increase in institutional holdings, surpassing the previous threshold of 20% that was thought to indicate a market peak, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [12][14]. - The contribution to profit improvement in the first three quarters of the year has been predominantly from technology-related sectors, indicating a shift in the economic drivers towards technology and global demand [20][78]. Group 4: Economic Transformation - The transformation of the Chinese economy is reflected in the changing profit structure of A-share companies, moving away from traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure towards technology-driven productivity and global market integration [19][30]. - The current economic environment is characterized by a high-quality development narrative, with companies demonstrating resilience in profitability that exceeds macroeconomic data [20][78]. Group 5: Global Market Context - The global equity market is experiencing a bull market with distinct characteristics of differentiation, synchronization, and concentration, with A-shares showing a relatively lower proportion of declining stocks compared to other markets [41][45]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding the evolving global economic landscape, particularly in relation to the AI-driven technological revolution and its impact on market dynamics [29][51].

12月11日，渣打银行召开全球及中国经济展望线上媒体座谈会。渣打银行大中华区及北亚首席经济 学家丁爽指出，随着外部环境变化，中国的经济工作已经从短期的风险应对模式转换成长期的经济转型 模式，更加倾向于通过技术投资、产业升级培育新的经济增长点。 消费方面，服务消费预计保持平稳增长；商品消费受此前"以旧换新"政策带动的部分需求提前释放 影响，增速或出现小幅回落。 投资方面，2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，财政资金对基建投资的投入将有所增加；制造业投 资在政策引导下有望得到恢复；服务业投资受益于对内对外开放将持续深化；房地产投资或仍将负增 长。综合来看，投资对GDP的贡献有望小幅上升。 具体而言，财政政策方面，丁爽预计2026年赤字率将回落至3.8%，广义财政赤字占GDP比重将回 调至8.5%，中央和地方政府的一般债、专项债发行规模预计仍接近2025年水平。 "适度宽松的货币政策更多是配合财政政策，降息空间相对有限。"丁爽预计，2026年一季度将降准 25个基点；二季度将降息10个基点，更多发挥信号作用。同时，央行在二级市场买卖国债的操作将常态 化，以此保持流动性合理充裕。 在部署2026年重点任务时，中央经 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant economic events of 2025 and anticipates the changes in 2026, highlighting the emergence of new productive forces, the upward trend of A-shares, and shifts in consumer behavior and marketing strategies [1] Group 1: Economic Trends - The global economy has experienced notable events in 2025 that will influence daily life and economic conditions moving into 2026 [1] - There is a call for professional insights on economic trends for 2026, inviting contributions from various financial commentators and analysts [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes the shift in consumer preferences towards personalized experiences, particularly in the digital product sector, indicating potential new market opportunities [5] - The emergence of products that cater to specific unmet consumer needs could lead to the creation of new market categories [5] Group 3: Technological Innovations - The introduction of the "Doubao" phone is highlighted as a potential disruptor to traditional app ecosystems, suggesting a shift in how users interact with applications [6] - The competition among major tech companies to respond to innovations like the Doubao phone may lead to a significant transformation in the industry [6][7]

21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 广州报道 "今年前三季度上市公司盈利增长了5.2%，成绩来之不易，也是 可贺可庆。"在南方财经论坛2025年会现场，中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷如是表示。 12月6日，南方财经论坛分论坛证券业年会暨2025年21世纪金牌分析师发布典礼在广州举行，李迅雷在 主题演讲中围绕"如何让物价合理回升"这一核心议题，系统阐述了对2026年经济走势的深度思考。 在"十五五"规划开局之年，如何实现"让物价合理回升"的政策目标，将成为影响2026年经济与资本市场 走势的关键变量。 在李迅雷看来，破局之道在于供需再平衡与服务业突破，通过积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 推动经济从"量增"向"质升"转变。 李迅雷特别提到，"十五五"规划建议提出"保持制造业合理比重，构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产 业体系"，这为产能优化指明了方向。产能收缩有利于"反内卷"，但收缩幅度过大又会影响GDP增速和 就业。关键是要找到一个平衡点，实现产能的优化升级而非简单收缩。 供需结构：产能优化与消费潜力释放的新平衡 李迅雷深入剖析了当前经济中的供需结构问题。从供给端看，中国制造业增加值占全球1/3，产能占全 球40% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of industrial production, construction, and demand trends in China, highlighting weak performance in various sectors while noting some marginal improvements in construction and consumer activity. Industrial Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.1% to 81.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2] - Steel apparent consumption has also decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 2.68% and a year-on-year drop of 2.4 percentage points to 1.2% [2] - Social inventory of steel continues to decline, down 2.9% week-on-week [2] Construction Industry - Cement production and demand show marginal improvement, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 0.5% week-on-week to 38.9% [23] - Cement shipment rates decreased by 0.8% week-on-week to 44.4%, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [23] - Cement inventory ratio continues to decline, down 1.9% week-on-week [23] Demand Trends - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 24% week-on-week and 20.8 percentage points year-on-year [46] - The migration scale index remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points to 19.8% [58] - Movie attendance and box office revenue saw significant increases, with attendance up 322.0% year-on-year and revenue up 313.9% [64] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally rising, with vegetable prices increasing by 2.1% week-on-week, while pork prices fell by 0.7% [88] - The South China industrial product price index rose by 1% week-on-week, with energy prices up 0.3% and metal prices up 1.7% [100]

瓦塔拉在就职讲话中回顾科特迪瓦近15年来取得的成就，指出这个西非国家仍面临恐怖主义威胁和粮食 安全等挑战，同时强调致力于将科特迪瓦建设为区域能源枢纽，并将青年与妇女发展议题置于政策核 心。 瓦塔拉还说，今后五年，科特迪瓦将着力推动经济转型，发展更具竞争力的工业体系，培育更有活力的 私营部门，并建设现代化能源、交通和数字基础设施。 科特迪瓦现任总统阿拉萨内·瓦塔拉8日在经济首都阿比让宣誓就职，开始新一届五年总统任期。 在总统府举行的就职仪式上，科宪法委员会发布10月25日总统选举最终结果公告，瓦塔拉诵读总统就职 誓词。10多名非洲国家元首、多名非洲前国家元首和政府首脑出席仪式。 11月4日，科特迪瓦宪法委员会宣布，统一党候选人瓦塔拉在总统选举中获得89.77%的选票，赢得连 任。 瓦塔拉现年83岁，曾经担任西非国家中央银行行长、国际货币基金组织副总裁等职。1990年至1993年担 任科特迪瓦总理；2010年参加总统选举获胜，次年正式就职；2015年和2020年两次连任科特迪瓦总统。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Core Insights - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is viewed as a critical event for interpreting China's economic direction, especially as it coincides with key policy signals and development tasks [1][3] Economic Context - China's economy is currently facing challenges with a slowdown in traditional growth engines and emerging industries still in the early stages of development, compounded by global geopolitical tensions and shrinking external demand [3][5] - Economic indicators show significant pressure, with real estate development investment down 23% year-on-year in October and a 24.3% decline in commodity housing sales, indicating ongoing adjustments in the housing market [5][7] Policy Focus - The conference will address three core issues: adjustment of the deficit ratio, real estate relief, and support for emerging industries, as 2025 marks a transitional year between the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [5][9] - There is a strong emphasis on enhancing public spending through a potential increase in the deficit ratio, which could fund infrastructure, social welfare, and technological innovation, thereby stimulating economic growth [9][11] Monetary Policy - The continued issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds aims to alleviate short-term fiscal pressures and direct social capital towards strategic emerging industries, achieving both growth stabilization and structural adjustment [11][12] - Monetary policy tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are anticipated to lower financing costs for businesses and stimulate consumer spending [11][12] Consumer and Housing Market - Consumer price index (CPI) showed a negative growth of 0.1% in the first half of the year, reflecting weak domestic demand, while the producer price index (PPI) has been in a downward trend for 33 consecutive months [7][9] - Housing policies may shift focus from stabilizing prices to supporting rigid and improved housing demand, potentially through relaxed purchasing and lending policies [16][20] Industry Development - The conference will outline policies to accelerate the industrialization of AI and support traditional industries' transformation, aiming to create a modern industrial system that balances emerging and traditional sectors [18][20] - A stable supply chain and enhanced innovation capabilities are expected to drive high-quality economic development and create more quality jobs, ultimately improving income levels [20][21] Conclusion - The conference serves as a guide for national economic development and a reference for families planning their futures, emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts among the government, businesses, and consumers to drive economic growth [20][21][25]

Core Viewpoint - The conference focused on "Finding the Path to Breakthrough for the Chinese Economy," addressing key issues such as macroeconomic trends, technological innovation, and capital market restructuring in the context of global changes [1]. Group 1: Economic Challenges and Opportunities - The chairman of Hexun, Zhang Zhifang, highlighted the vibrant growth in China's tech and cultural sectors, exemplified by the success of AI and film industries, while also noting challenges such as unbalanced development and risks in key areas [4]. - Huang Qifan pointed out that China's urbanization has transitioned from a 1.0 version (1980-2020) with an urbanization rate increase from 18% to 38% to a 2.0 version aiming for a further 30% increase, targeting a rate of 78% [6]. - Liu Shijun emphasized that the shift from investment and export-driven growth to innovation and consumption-driven growth is crucial during the 14th Five-Year Plan, necessitating a focus on expanding consumption and improving livelihoods [9]. Group 2: Future Economic Outlook - Yao Yang suggested that stabilizing the real estate market and local government finances is essential for supporting short-term demand and restoring economic vitality [10]. - Li Xunlei discussed the need for structural adjustments and reforms to address the intertwined issues of real estate cycles and structural problems, advocating for a technology-led growth model [11]. - Liang Hong noted that improvements in production efficiency are foundational for the revaluation of RMB assets and strengthening of the currency [11]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and AI Impact - Li Yang indicated that low interest rates may become a norm in China's financial landscape, with monetary policy increasingly focusing on asset prices and systematic interventions in the bond market [14]. - Cai Fang addressed the structural employment challenges posed by AI, advocating for policies that align AI development with employment strategies [16]. - Yao Xin highlighted that AI's impact extends beyond technology, affecting societal paradigms and economic models, while Cai Hongping expressed skepticism about the immediate applicability of humanoid robots in complex environments [19][20]. Group 4: Capital Market and Investment Strategies - Wang Qing stated that the Chinese capital market is not synchronizing with the real economy, predicting a shift towards performance-driven stock market dynamics [22]. - Xing Ziqiang noted that historical patterns of over-investment during technological revolutions suggest that the current AI boom will ultimately enhance global productivity [22]. - Wu Xiaoqiu emphasized the need to transition from a financing-centered approach to one that prioritizes investor rights in the restructuring of China's capital market ecosystem [24].

Group 1: Global Governance and Economic Shifts - The current global governance structure is undergoing significant changes, with emerging economies, represented by BRICS, rapidly rising while developed economies resist relinquishing their central positions [2][3] - Russia's Finance Minister Siluanov emphasized that the traditional "developed-developing" binary classification is weakening, and emerging economies are gaining momentum, advocating for their increased representation in international institutions [2][4] - The forum discussed the role of Russia in the new global governance order, aligning with China's global governance initiatives, highlighting the importance of equitable global governance and the active participation of Global South countries [3][4] Group 2: Economic Transformation and New Financial Mechanisms - The world economy is in a profound transitional phase, with new financial mechanisms emerging to replace traditional systems like SWIFT, driven by the weaponization of existing financial tools [5][6] - The focus of discussions included addressing climate crises, debt issues, energy transitions, and ensuring food security, reflecting both traditional concerns and new challenges in global governance [5][6] - A new form of globalization characterized by regional integration and cooperation among friendly nations is replacing the previous model of comprehensive globalization, as trade disputes and tariff barriers rise [6][7] Group 3: Technological Transformation and AI Development - Russia recognizes the need for economic transformation beyond fossil fuels, emphasizing the importance of technology as a key driver for future economic growth [7][8] - The competition in economic development is increasingly centered around the application and advancement of artificial intelligence, with a focus on achieving technological sovereignty [7][8] - The Russian government plans to shift its budget priorities towards supporting key technology sectors, including microelectronics and robotics, to enhance its technological capabilities [8]