01、美元 "退烧" 早有信号？ 王爷说财经讯：9月28 日紧急提醒：美元撑不住了！今天1美元只能换 7.1349 人民币，比起9月4 日的 7.1426 已经连跌8天。 更关键的是，美元兑欧元、英镑甚至离岸人民币全在跌，仅今天对卢旺达法郎就跌了 5.57 个点。 美元这波走弱是暂时波动还是大趋势反转？对我们投资者又会有何影响呢？今天就一起来看看！ 其实从9 月17 日就该警觉了——美联储突然出手，把联邦基金利率从 4.25%-4.5% 降到了 4%-4.25%。 这是美联储今年第一次降息，背后藏着美国经济的大问题：8 月非农就业只增 2.2 万人，比 7 月少了近 6 万人，连去年的就业数据都下修了 91.1 万。 更要命的是全球央行都在 "用脚投票"。 据国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新的数据显示，现在美元在全球外汇储备里只占 57.74%，是 15 年来最低，而黄金储备占比却从 6.41% 涨到 14.8%。 而最近瑞士央行更是直接，坦言正在把美元换成欧元，毕竟它 1 万亿美元储备里，美元占比已从高位降了 2 个点。 02、为啥美元突然不香了？ 那么问题来了：为什么美元突然就变成这样了呢？ 王爷说财经认为 ...

上周五（9月19日）税期影响渐退，资金面边际转松，当日央行净投放1243亿元。本周一14天逆回购操 作重启，资金面延续暖意，主要资金价格小幅下行，当日央行净投放2605亿元。本周二资金面维持均衡 态势，主要资金价格继续小幅下行，当日央行净回笼109亿元。本周三央行延续净回笼，资金面边际收 敛，主要资金价格有所抬升，央行当日回笼170亿元。本周四受季末影响，周四资金面延续收敛，资金 利率整体上行，当日央行净投放2965亿元。本周四（9月25日）相较于上周五，DR001上行1bp收于 1.47%，DR007上行9bp收于 1.60%。 海外方面，欧元区9月制造业PMI初值49.5，为3个月低位，预期50.7，8月终值50.7；综合PMI初值 51.2，预期51.1，8月终值51；服务业PMI初值51.4，预期50.5，8月终值50.5。美联储主席鲍威尔表示， 联储的双重使命——充分就业和价格稳定均面临威胁，两面的风险意味着没有毫无风险的政策路径；重 申合理预期是关税一次性推升价格，称要确保关税不会持续影响；无法再认为美国劳动力市场是稳健 的，现在的确看到劳动力市场实质性疲软的现象；金融稳定的风险并未增加；银行业资 ...

摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强在2025年《财富》世界500强峰会上表示，最近美联储开启了降息 的历程，但这个降息的决定非常拧巴，因为美国短期会面临滞胀的风险，不管是收紧移民缺了劳动力， 还是对外加关税产品价格涨了，其实经济未来几个季度要回落，但与此同时其通胀居高不下。在这个过 程中开启降息，可能会使得未来整个美元资产实际效益不断下降，导致美元资产吸引力下降，全球资金 越来越寻求多元化配置。 在美联储降息落地、美国最新公布的就业和消费数据双双超预期等多重因素影响下，近段时间以来美元 指数起伏震荡加剧。从市场表现来看，美元指数收盘价从9月23日的97.232飙升至9月26日的98.347。 华福证券在最新研报中强调，美联储主席鲍威尔和美联储多位委员最新表态强调通胀上行风险，在经济 边际改善背景下持续推升实际利率，令美元指数开始呈现较大的回升弹性，并可能持续。 市场分析人士普遍认为，避险资金的惯性回流是驱动此轮美元指数强势回升的关键，不过中长期来看， 美元走弱趋势依然难改。 中信证券分析指出，预计2025年年内美元将继续弱势，需警惕的是若后续美国通胀意外升温以及美国经 济意外好转，导致美联储放缓降息，则美元或存 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have reached a historical high of $3,790.82 per ounce, driven by various factors including geopolitical uncertainty, monetary policy changes, and increased demand from central banks [1][2] - Geopolitical uncertainty has led to a rise in safe-haven demand for gold, as investors seek to protect their wealth during times of political and economic turmoil [1] - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have made gold more attractive, as lower interest rates decrease the returns on fixed-income products, prompting investors to shift towards gold [1][2] Group 2 - Central banks around the world have been increasing their gold reserves, further driving up demand and prices, as countries aim to hedge against dollar fluctuations and inflation risks [1][2] - A weaker US dollar has also contributed to the rise in gold prices, as it lowers the cost of gold for buyers using other currencies, especially in light of recent data indicating a sluggish US economy [2] - Despite the current high prices, economists predict a potential short-term correction, but Deutsche Bank forecasts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 if macroeconomic conditions remain unchanged [2]

辛格称，美联储近期虽小幅降息，但在主席鲍威尔任期将于明年5月结束的背景下，未来货币政策走向 存在不确定性。他警告，若宽松政策与财政扩张叠加，可能推高通胀，并使美元在全球货币政策分化中 进一步走弱。（央视新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间9月26日，美国资产管理公司PGIM固定收益部门副主席、首席全球经济学家戴 利普·辛格表示，美元的主要短期风险来自总统特朗普对美联储的持续施压。他指出，市场担心美联储 在政治压力下采取过度鸽派立场，从而放松货币政策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected weakening of the US dollar since the implementation of Trump's tariffs on April 2, while the Chinese yuan remains under pressure. It analyzes the reasons behind the dollar's decline and the potential future trends for both the dollar and yuan [1]. Group 1: Recent Weakness of the US Dollar - Since January 10, the US dollar has been continuously weakening, with the dollar index dropping to 99.4 by April 17, a decline of 9.3%. The dollar's performance has shown a clear divergence against developed and emerging market currencies, with declines of 7.6% and 1.4% respectively [2][7]. - Prior to April 7, the primary reason for the dollar's weakness was the rising expectations of a US recession, as indicated by a drop in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index from 14.5 to -19.5. This led to an increase in market expectations for interest rate cuts, which rose from 1.2 to 4.2 times by April 4, causing a significant drop of 62 basis points in the 10-year US Treasury yield [2][17]. - After April 7, despite a rebound in Treasury yields, the dollar continued to weaken, possibly due to overseas capital fleeing the US. This shift in market sentiment transitioned from "flight to safety" to "flight to non-US" assets [2][28]. Group 2: Future Outlook for the US Dollar - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and other policies may continue to exert downward pressure on the US economy, potentially leading to further dollar weakness. The tariffs are expected to increase economic and trade uncertainties, impacting corporate activities and consumer confidence [3][39]. - The GTAP model suggests that the tariffs could reduce US GDP by approximately 3 percentage points. Historical patterns indicate that during recessions, the dollar typically strengthens; however, current concerns about US debt sustainability and Trump's isolationist policies may weaken the dollar's safe-haven status [3][52]. - The outflow of funds from US assets could diminish the likelihood of the dollar's typical "smile curve" behavior during a recession, as capital flows towards non-US assets increase [3][52]. Group 3: Implications for the Chinese Yuan - Despite the weakening dollar, the Chinese yuan has also depreciated, primarily due to the direct impact of tariff policies. Since April 2, while the dollar index fell by 4.1%, the onshore yuan depreciated by 0.4%, reaching a new low since the 2015 reform [4][61]. - Looking ahead, the depreciation pressure on the yuan may ease as external shocks diminish. The ongoing US economic downturn and capital outflows from the US could alleviate external pressures on the yuan [4][92]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has tools to counter cyclical behaviors in the market, and the accumulation of approximately $123.9 billion in pending foreign exchange settlements since 2023 may provide a buffer for the yuan's stability [4][77].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The international gold price has risen significantly, leading to an increase in domestic gold jewelry prices, with some brands reaching 1100 yuan per gram as of September 23 [1] - The current high gold prices coincide with the traditional consumption peak season, prompting changes in consumer behavior in the gold market [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior in Xiamen - In Xiamen, there is a notable trend of consumers opting for larger wedding gold ornaments, with heavier pieces (35-50 grams) currently in high demand and often sold out [5][7] - Many consumers are bringing old gold to exchange for new pieces, taking advantage of promotions that waive additional costs except for labor fees [7] Group 3: Product Offerings and Market Dynamics - Various gold brands are launching co-branded products to capture market share, although these items often come with a premium price and are typically smaller in weight [9] - Products priced between 1000 to 3000 yuan are particularly popular, along with 1-gram gold notes and bars that appeal to younger consumers as gifts [11] Group 4: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy, with market expectations for two more rate cuts this year [12] - The dollar has weakened significantly, with the dollar index dropping over 10% this year, which has positively impacted gold prices, which have increased by over 40% [12][14] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - Experts predict that the dollar may continue to weaken, as the economic advantages of the U.S. compared to emerging markets are diminishing [14] - There is a growing trend among global investors to diversify away from U.S. assets, which may further support gold prices as central banks increase their gold reserves [16]

来源：@央视财经微博 【#金价飙涨原因找到了#↓ #冈拉克称金价年底前达4000美元#】近日，#金价大涨再创纪录#，有"新债 王"之称的冈拉克预测金价将在今年年底前达到每盎司4000美元。黄金表现亮眼，背后有多重因素交织 影响。首先，短期上，受到了近期美联储放松货币政策的推动。数据显示，目前市场押注美联储今年还 将分别在10月和12月再降息两次，每次25个基点；其次，长期来看，在美国经济前景急剧变化的背景 下，美元走弱持续利好黄金。今年衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数迄今为止已下跌超10%，而与此 同时现货金价年内则已涨超40%；另外，全球央行多元化储备的需求也支撑了金价。戳视频↓ ...

Group 1 - The core driver of market growth is a loose financial environment, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and fiscal stimulus providing ample buyback funds for companies [1] - The Swedish central bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2.0%, indicating that the current rate cut cycle may have ended due to persistent inflation and alleviated economic concerns [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the weak performance of the Korean won is partly due to domestic retail investors withdrawing funds from the stock market and reduced foreign exchange hedging by the National Pension Service [1] Group 2 - Monex Europe suggests that if the Federal Reserve implements faster and larger rate cuts, the USD/CAD exchange rate may decline in the medium term, driven by risk sentiment and U.S. data in the short term [2] - The Swiss National Bank is taking a cautious approach to negative interest rates, with expectations of a strong Swiss franc supported by progress in U.S.-Swiss trade negotiations [2] - Julius Baer indicates that the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from ETF and REIT holdings will have minimal long-term impact on the stock market due to the small proportion of holdings [2] Group 3 - Historical data shows that emerging market bonds have averaged returns of 6%-8% following Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a current overweight in emerging market assets by JPMorgan Asset Management [3] - The actions of the Federal Reserve have reinforced expectations of a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, benefiting both emerging market equities and bonds [3] - There is a clear demand for non-dollar assets, with investors showing unprecedented interest in emerging market local currency bonds since 2012, indicating a need for diversified allocations [3]

Group 1 - The price of silver has surpassed $43.50 per ounce, reaching a new high since August 2011, while the main contract for silver in Shanghai rose by over 4%, breaking through 10,336.00 yuan per kilogram, setting a historical record [1] - HSBC's precious metals analyst James Steel noted that the price increase has attracted buyers of silver, particularly those who have not fully capitalized on the rise in gold prices [2] - The global trade landscape is shifting, with threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, leading investors to flock to gold and silver markets [2] Group 2 - On September 22, domestic main contracts showed mixed results, with Shanghai silver rising over 3%, while Shanghai gold and European shipping contracts increased by over 2% [3] - Other commodities such as tin, soybean meal, and rubber also saw increases of over 1%, while polysilicon dropped over 3%, and LPG and silicon iron fell by more than 2% [3]