Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the cumulative increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 57.25% and 51.89% respectively, but last week they decreased by 2.94% and 6.17% [4][21]. - The long - term bullish logic for gold remains intact, including a weakening US dollar and central bank gold purchases due to global political and economic instability [6]. - Short - term advice is to take profits on long gold positions, and for options, take profits on purchased call options [1][6]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - **Price Trends**: Since 2025, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices had significant increases, but declined last week [4][21]. - **Inflation**: CPI reached a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined. Since February 2024, CPI rebounded, and core inflation showed signs of slowing decline or rising. In September 2025, CPI slightly increased, while core CPI slightly decreased [4][24]. - **Interest Rates**: US medium - term Treasury yields declined from mid - October 2023 to January 2025, rebounded since February 2024, and fell below the 2024 low since September [4][28]. - **Supply and Demand**: When the gold market is in a tight supply - demand balance, it is conducive to price increases. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand situation became less loose, mainly due to increased investment demand. The domestic gold market remained in a tight balance in 2024 and 2025, with significant increases in investment demand and central bank gold purchases [4][41]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, US non - farm employment data was much weaker than expected, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. The average hourly wage of non - farm employees increased by 0.4% [4][37]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Outlook**: Gold prices opened high and closed low last Friday, with a slight decline. After a significant increase due to risk - aversion sentiment, gold prices dropped on the evening of October 21st, mainly due to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment and profit - taking from overbought technical conditions. However, the long - term upward trend of gold remains [6]. - **Strategy**: For long gold positions, consider reducing positions in the medium term and setting stop - profit levels. For call options, take profits [6]. Gold Supply and Demand - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Tables**: When the gold market is in a tight supply - demand balance, it is beneficial for price increases. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand situation became less loose, and the domestic market remained in a tight balance [38][41]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases continued to decline. The Chinese central bank has been purchasing gold since 2022, with different purchase volumes in each quarter of 2025 [45]. - **ETF Demand**: In 2023 and 2024, gold holdings in ETFs decreased. As of October 24, 2025, gold holdings in ETFs increased by 265.07 tons, but last week there was a reduction of 3.91 tons [46]. Other Market Indicators - **Exchange Rates and Dollar Index**: The report presents trends in the RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between the US dollar and other major currencies [53]. - **Gold Price Differences**: The price difference between domestic and international gold markets fluctuated significantly [69][70]. - **Precious Metal and Oil Ratios**: The report shows trends in the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio [72].

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver prices experienced significant increases on October 23, 2023, driven by strong buying interest following heavy selling pressure and market corrections, with gold futures for December 2025 rising by 1.91% to $4143.2 per ounce [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold price saw a substantial recovery after a significant drop, with a 50% increase in 2025, solidifying its position as the best-performing asset of the year [1]. - Morgan Stanley raised its gold price forecast for 2026 to $4400 per ounce, a significant increase from the previous estimate of $3313 per ounce [1]. - Technical analysis indicates that the next upward target for gold futures is to break through the strong resistance level of $4250, while the next downward target for bears is to fall below the strong support level of $4000 [1]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver futures for December delivery increased by 2.03%, closing at $48.65 per ounce [2].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is at risk of entering a mild recession, which may lead to more significant interest rate cuts and a weakening of the dollar [1] Economic Outlook - The potential for a mild recession in the U.S. economy could trigger larger interest rate reductions [1] - A weaker dollar may result from the anticipated economic downturn and subsequent monetary policy adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is at risk of entering a mild recession, which could lead to significant interest rate cuts and a weakening of the dollar [1] Economic Outlook - Growth slowdown and high valuations in U.S. equities may replicate the mild recession scenario seen in 2001 [1] - Historical context shows that the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates from 6.5% to 1.0% between 2001 and 2003, resulting in a 40% decline in the dollar index over the following seven years [1] Risks and Warnings - Concerns regarding inflation, economic growth, asset valuations, and market bubbles could push the economy towards a mild recession, potentially exceeding expectations for both interest rate and dollar declines [1]

Core Viewpoint - The capital market in China is expected to experience a more optimistic phase by 2026, with investor confidence translating into action despite external uncertainties [3][9]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The fourth quarter of each year often reflects a condensed expectation for the following year, suggesting that a positive outlook for 2026 will likely result in a favorable market in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - The current yield on equities is slightly higher than that of bonds, but this is still considered insufficient for long-term growth [6][9]. - A long-term understanding of the global competitive landscape is crucial for maintaining confidence in investments [6][10]. - The downward trend of the US dollar is anticipated to lead to a systematic increase in global risk assets [6][12]. - The rise in pricing power of leading domestic companies reflects a broader restructuring of global economic order [6][16]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - There is a growing importance of gold as an asset allocation choice amid the restructuring of monetary order, despite its recent price increases [6][15]. - The focus should shift from quantity (GDP) to price factors, as improvements in pricing power can enhance corporate profitability [16][19]. - The increase in China's manufacturing value-added share indicates a potential for price increases in Chinese goods, similar to historical trends in the US [17][18]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector, particularly artificial intelligence, is expected to see significant developments by 2026, with potential for valuation reappraisal across various industries [22][23]. - High dividend yields remain attractive, but they may not outperform high-growth technology assets in the long run [24][25]. - The long-term prospects for high ROE Chinese consumer brands remain positive, with potential for revaluation in the market [24][25]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The capital market's depth and inclusivity have significantly improved, particularly in the Hong Kong market, which is becoming a key focus for institutional investors [22]. - The liquidity environment is expected to support the equity market, with a shift in asset allocation away from real estate towards equities [21][22]. - Confidence in private enterprises is growing, supported by favorable policies and structural tools aimed at enhancing their role in technological innovation [20].

Group 1 - The US dollar index has declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, marking its worst weekly performance since July, with a current weekly drop of 0.5% [1][2] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have increased, with traders now anticipating a cumulative reduction of 53 basis points by the end of the year, up from 46 basis points previously [1][2] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a willingness to continue steady rate cuts, with discussions around a potential 25 basis point reduction to support the labor market [2] Group 2 - The decline in the dollar is also influenced by a significant drop in regional bank stock prices due to concerns over tightened lending standards, alongside easing political risks in Japan and France [2] - Analysts from ING highlight multiple negative factors impacting the dollar, including the Fed's dovish policy re-pricing, progress in Ukraine ceasefire talks, falling oil prices, and ongoing US-China trade tensions [2] - Current market sentiment remains fragile, with investors adopting short-term trading strategies as the dollar has retraced about one-third of its rebound from a three-year low [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current upward trend in gold prices is supported by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, creating a strong bullish momentum [2] - Gold prices have effectively broken through the $4200 level, indicating a dominant bullish sentiment in the market [2] - The daily RSI indicator has entered the overbought territory (>80), suggesting a potential short-term technical pullback [2] - Key support levels to watch are $4200-$4195, with further support at $4180-$4172 if the first level fails [2] - The upward target is set at $4250, with a potential move towards $4300 if this level is surpassed [2] - The overall bullish trend remains intact as long as prices hold above the $4180 support level, amidst a weak dollar and high global uncertainty [2] Group 2: Trading Strategy for Gold - The trading strategy focuses on a bullish layout, recommending to enter long positions when prices pull back to the $4218-$4115 range [4] - The $4200 level is identified as a critical defense line for both long and short positions; a break below this level suggests exiting the market [4] - The primary focus is on the breakout of the $4250 level, as the market remains in an upward trend [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is currently facing mixed factors, with short-term supply abundance putting pressure on prices, while declining Russian oil exports and cautious OPEC+ production increases may provide some support [5] - The technical outlook for WTI crude oil shows a clear bearish structure, with prices operating within a descending channel and moving averages indicating a bearish trend [5] - Key price levels to monitor include a potential drop below $58, which would lead to further support at $56.20, while a stabilization and breakout above $60 could signal a short-term rebound [5] - The current market is constrained by "oversupply" and "high inventory" pressures [5] Group 4: Demand Recovery and OPEC+ Monitoring - Short-term observations should focus on the demand recovery pace in Asian countries and the U.S.; continued weakness in demand may keep oil prices under pressure [7] - Mid-term trends will depend on OPEC+ meetings and whether stronger supply adjustment measures will be implemented, which could be a key variable in changing the current trend [7]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC believes that the US dollar is likely to weaken again and may hit bottom in early next year, driven by historical patterns when the Federal Reserve resumes easing and the US economy avoids recession [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - HSBC's global foreign exchange research head, Paul Mackel, points out that historical experience indicates a weakening dollar when the Fed restarts its easing cycle while the US economy remains resilient [1] - Discussions about a potential re-acceleration of the US economy and recent political turmoil in France and Japan have contributed to the dollar's sideways movement since July [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The market's sentiment is described as volatile, with a strong desire for a stronger dollar, but it is deemed premature to abandon bearish views at this time [1] - Mackel anticipates that the dollar will reach its lowest point in early next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Amundi's 2025 global investment outlook indicates a strong performance in the US stock market, while European markets are stabilizing, influenced by AI capital expenditure expectations and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The US stock market reached new highs in August, while European markets approached March levels, with corporate credit spreads narrowing during the summer [1] - Market sentiment is buoyed by strong earnings in the US and a relatively mild position from the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting, despite underlying economic risks [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Fiscal Policies - Key themes for the medium term include rising US inflation expectations, increased fiscal spending plans in the US and EU, and ongoing accommodative monetary policies, leading to rising yields across major economies [2] - The yield curve is steepening due to concerns over fiscal deficits, particularly in the US and Europe, with long-term yields expected to rise further due to pension reforms in some European countries [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Amid rising geopolitical risks, Amundi suggests diversifying investments away from the US market towards Europe and Japan, as Europe is better positioned to mitigate tariff-related shocks through fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a focus on financially sound companies and special risks, while also capitalizing on opportunities arising from weak stock prices [3] Group 4: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are showing signs of recovery, with improvements in economic conditions in countries like China and India, while Brazil and Indonesia's political situations are back in focus [4] - Internal tax reforms in countries like India are expected to boost domestic consumption, which is a key growth driver, and the overall positive outlook for emerging markets is supported by a dovish Federal Reserve [4] Group 5: Risk Assets and Economic Outlook - Despite a lack of extreme macroeconomic data in the US and Europe, Amundi maintains a cautious outlook on US economic growth due to deteriorating labor market conditions and potential consumption suppression from tariffs [5] - The company is slightly optimistic about risk assets, including emerging markets, and suggests allocating to gold and stock hedging tools to enhance protection against geopolitical risks and fiscal deterioration [5]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC believes that the US dollar is likely to weaken further, despite ongoing debates about whether it has already bottomed out [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - HSBC's global foreign exchange research head, Paul Mackel, indicates that historical trends show the dollar tends to weaken when the Federal Reserve resumes a loose monetary policy and the US economy avoids recession [1] - Discussions about a potential acceleration in the US economy, along with recent political turmoil in France and Japan, have prompted considerations regarding the dollar's sideways movement since July [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The market's sentiment is described as unpredictable, with a strong desire for a stronger dollar being tempting, but it is deemed premature to abandon bearish views [1] - Mackel forecasts that the dollar will likely reach its bottom by early next year [1]