Core Points - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has ended after 43 days, with President Trump signing a temporary funding bill [1][2] - The new bill provides funding for most federal agencies until January 30, 2026, but leaves nine budget items unresolved, indicating a potential future shutdown [4][6] - The shutdown has caused significant economic damage, with a projected 1.5% decrease in GDP growth for the quarter and an estimated permanent economic loss of $11 billion [1][2] Funding and Economic Impact - The temporary funding bill includes provisions for the Department of Agriculture, Department of Veterans Affairs, military construction projects, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [2][4] - The Congressional Budget Office predicted that a six-week shutdown would lead to a 1.5% drop in GDP growth, highlighting the economic repercussions of the standoff [1][2] - The inability to collect key economic data during the shutdown may lead to long-term damage to the U.S. economic analysis and decision-making processes [7][8] Political Dynamics - The shutdown has intensified partisan divisions in Washington, with both parties blaming each other for the impasse [6][9] - The Democratic Party's core demand for healthcare benefits was not fully addressed in the final agreement, leading to internal dissent among party members [3][4] - The political fallout from the shutdown may influence the upcoming midterm elections, although past shutdowns have shown that public memory of such events tends to fade quickly [6][9] International Implications - The prolonged shutdown has damaged the U.S.'s credibility on the global stage, potentially affecting its position as a leader in the international economic order [9] - The shutdown has raised concerns among international investors regarding the reliability of the U.S. as a stable market and financial system arbiter [9]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping over 1% at one point. As of the report, the Dow Jones fell by 0.1%, the Nasdaq declined by 0.89%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.49% [1][2] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese concept stocks showed resilience against the market downturn, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index recovering from an initial drop to gain 0.45% [2] - Leading Chinese tech stocks such as BYD, Alibaba, and Tencent saw increases of over 2%, while other popular Chinese stocks like Canadian Solar and Bawang Tea gained over 6% and 4% respectively [4] Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown lasted for 43 days, resulting in an estimated loss of $1.5 trillion, with significant impacts on the economy, including a projected 1.5 percentage point reduction in Q4 GDP growth [6] - The shutdown affected the release of key economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment reports, which are crucial for investment decisions and Federal Reserve policy-making [10][11] Consumer Confidence - The U.S. consumer confidence index plummeted to a three-year low in November, declining by 6% from the previous month and nearly 30% year-on-year [7]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of critical economic data, including the October CPI, which is essential for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1][2] - The shutdown began on October 1 due to a failure to reach an agreement on a temporary spending bill between the Republican and Democratic parties, and it officially ended on November 12 when President Trump signed a temporary funding bill [1] - During the shutdown, the release of September and October non-farm employment data was also delayed, and the September CPI data was released nearly 10 days late [2] Economic Data Impact - The October CPI data, which typically reflects inflation trends for the previous month, was expected to be crucial for economic analysis but may never be published due to the shutdown [1] - The September CPI showed a year-over-year increase of 3%, which was below market expectations of 3.1%, and the previous value was 2.9% [2] - The core CPI for September also rose by 3% year-over-year, again falling short of the anticipated 3.1% [2]

Core Points - The recent U.S. federal government shutdown lasted for 43 days, breaking the previous record of 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019, and was resolved when Congress passed a temporary funding bill that was signed by President Trump [1][2] - The shutdown had significant economic and social impacts, affecting over one million federal employees who faced financial pressure due to unpaid wages, and causing widespread disruptions in air travel, with approximately 5.2 million passengers affected by delays or cancellations [1] - The shutdown also marked the first suspension of the 60-year-old Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, impacting around 42 million low-income individuals, many of whom live below the poverty line [1] Political Implications - Both parties in Congress engaged in mutual blame, focusing on advancing their political agendas rather than resolving the shutdown to alleviate public suffering [2] - Public sentiment has shifted negatively, with 65% of respondents expressing disappointment in the Trump administration's performance, particularly regarding economic management and inflation [2] - A significant portion of the population perceives increasing political polarization, with 66% expressing distrust in the government and 59% believing that political divisions have worsened over the past five years [2] Economic Impact - The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the six-week shutdown would result in an economic loss of approximately $11 billion for the U.S. economy [2] - The shutdown has been characterized as sending a dangerous signal to the world about the U.S.'s reliability as a partner, as stated by Kansas Republican Senator Jerry Moran [2]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 futures increased following the conclusion of a record 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which reinstated hundreds of thousands of government employees and allowed for the resumption of data [1] Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown lasted for 43 days, marking a record duration [1] - The end of the shutdown resulted in the return of hundreds of thousands of government staff to work [1] - The resumption of data collection and reporting is expected to impact market dynamics positively [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil relatively strong. Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. Corn prices are in short - term high - level oscillations. Pig prices are weak due to loose supply and demand. Natural rubber may have a pulse upward movement, and synthetic rubber will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Cotton prices decline slightly, sugar prices fluctuate narrowly, pulp is dominated by capital with the long - side advantage unchanged, double - offset paper will stabilize in November, and logs are in a destocking cycle and oscillate [1][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper technical resistance. - **Logic**: The US soybean market is waiting for the clarity of export demand. The US federal government may resume operation this week, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates again this year. The USDA will release a report on Friday. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and there is a possibility of a decrease in yield per unit. Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress lags behind last year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to be at a high level, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. Malaysian palm oil production and exports have declined in November, and Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low. Domestic rapeseed supply is tight, and rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, but future supply is expected to increase [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil will oscillate, palm oil will oscillate, and rapeseed oil will oscillate strongly. The positive driving factors in the vegetable oil market include tight domestic rapeseed supply, declining rapeseed oil inventory, the palm oil production - reduction season, and rising domestic soybean import costs [2][7]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: US soybeans are testing the upper pressure level, and the reverse spread of Dalian soybean meal should be held. - **Logic**: The USDA will release a supply - and - demand report on November 15. The market expects a possible decrease in US soybean yield per unit. China's purchase of US soybeans has been digested, and the premium of US soybeans has loosened. Brazilian soybean exports are seasonally decreasing, but exports to China in November are expected to increase year - on - year. Brazilian and Argentine soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. Domestically, the de - stocking of soybean meal in oil mills is slow in the short term, and downstream inventory has decreased. In the medium term, the purchase of December shipments is advancing, but the January import is still at a loss. In the long term, the supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, and there may be a soybean shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips, not chase after highs, and sell near - term contracts and buy far - term contracts [9]. 3. Corn and Starch - **View**: The market is in a stage of tight supply, and prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are rising, with low arrival volume. The cold weather has increased farmers' reluctance to sell. The demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the railway freight adjustment has increased the trading cost. The central reserve grain rotation is ongoing. In the fourth quarter, there is pressure on spot prices due to the new - grain listing [11]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate strongly. There may be an opportunity to short when the price rebounds to around 2200 [11]. 4. Hogs - **View**: Supply and demand are loose, and pig prices are weak. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of commercial pigs in November is still large. In the medium term, the number of live - weight pigs for slaughter is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is being reduced, and the supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026. The ratio of meat to pig price has increased, the average slaughter weight has increased, and the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has increased [12]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate weakly. The near - term contracts are under pressure, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the reverse - spread strategy [12]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: With the approaching expiration of the 11 - contract, attention should be paid to the possible pulse upward movement. - **Logic**: The rubber futures market rose slightly yesterday, which may be related to the upcoming expiration of the RU11 contract. The supply in overseas production areas is affected by the weather, and the demand has not changed significantly recently. Seasonally, without strong expectations and macro - driving factors, rubber prices may face downward pressure [12][14]. - **Outlook**: Rubber prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating and high - elasticity trend. Attention should be paid to widening the spread between RU and NR [14]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The raw - material trading is stable, and the futures market rebounds strongly. - **Logic**: The BR futures market rebounded strongly yesterday due to the good trading of butadiene in recent days. The price of butadiene stopped falling and consolidated this week. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. The market has a short - term bottom support [15][16]. - **Outlook**: Given the large pressure on the fundamentals and raw - material side, it is recommended to short on rallies before the obvious supply - and - demand contradiction of butadiene appears [16]. 7. Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices decline slightly. - **Logic**: The positive factors in the cotton market have been digested, and the expected increase in supply and the peak - season listing of new cotton have brought downward pressure on prices. The cost of new cotton provides support [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 - contract will oscillate within a range. In the long term, the cotton market may destock, driving prices upward [16]. 8. Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuate narrowly. - **Logic**: Internationally, the focus of sugar supply has shifted from Brazil to the Northern Hemisphere. New - season sugar production in India, Thailand, and Brazil is expected to increase. Domestically, the new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and the tightening of import policies supports the domestic market, but the increase in supply during the peak - production period will bring downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, prices will oscillate weakly. In the short term, prices will fluctuate between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The futures market is dominated by capital, and the long - side advantage remains unchanged. - **Logic**: The futures market is oscillating at a high level, and the long - side funds are dominant. The positive factors include the rise in packaging paper prices, the increase in import costs, the good production - and - sales expectations of white cardboard and cultural paper, and the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts. The negative factors include low demand for softwood pulp, slow procurement by downstream enterprises, the disturbance of warehouse - receipt issues, and weak downstream consumption [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate. The spot market is dominated by warehouse - receipt and weak - supply - and - demand factors, while the futures market is driven by capital. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 10. Double - Offset Paper - **View**: November is the tender peak season, and prices will stabilize in an oscillating manner. - **Logic**: In November, supported by the tender season and cost pressure, paper mills are strongly willing to support prices, and the market may stop falling and rebound. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market. In the first quarter of 2026, the market will enter a stage of narrow - amplitude oscillation [19]. - **Outlook**: The tender for double - offset paper is starting, and prices will stop falling and stabilize [19]. 11. Logs - **View**: Logs are in a destocking cycle and will oscillate. - **Logic**: In the short term, the increase in shipments from New Zealand will lead to an increase in arrivals in December, and the import pressure will ease seasonally in the first quarter of 2026. In the long term, there is still supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a small increase in inventory replenishment in the fourth quarter and a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The real - estate industry cannot strongly drive the demand for logs, and prices will oscillate weakly around the cost line [21]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs are weakening, and spot prices are under pressure, with a recent bottom - oscillating trend [21].

随着美国政府"停摆"临近结束,市场焦点正从政治僵局迅速转向即将重启的宏观经济数据。此次停摆造 成的大量经济数据延迟发布,使投资者短暂失去了政策与市场的导航仪,如今随着政府运作恢复在即,积压 已久的"数据洪流"即将释放,金融市场正进入一个关键的观察窗口。 第三季度GDP初值 —— 预计在停摆结束后约两周发布; 10月就业报告 —— 有望赶在美联储12月会议前夕公布。 鉴于本次停摆时间长、覆盖面广,部分10月数据如CPI、零售销售可能推迟至12月中下旬才能见到,这也 意味着,美联储在12月会议前掌握的经济信息仍将极为有限。 12月利率决议:数据拼图未完待续 在12月9日至10日即将召开的政策会议上,美联储将面临前所未有的"信息稀缺期"。按目前进度判断,决策 者能看到的核心数据主要集中在三方面: 数据堆积后的"洪水闸门" 本轮停摆自10月初持续至今,涵盖了整个10月份的数据收集周期,就业、通胀、零售销售等关键指标被迫 推迟,造成信息真空,随着政府恢复运作,市场预计数据将呈"阶梯式回归": 首波公布 —— 预计首份重要数据将是9月非农就业报告,或在停摆结束后约3个工作日发布; 第二波释放 —— 9月零售销售与生产者物 ...

从10月1日开始的这次美国史上最长联邦政府停摆已持续43天，并已导致食品券福利中断、数十万联邦 雇员无薪工作，空中交通管制系统也几乎陷入瘫痪。 白宫于当地时间周三（12日）晚间宣布，美国总统特朗普签署法案重新启动政府运作。白宫的声明称， 特朗普签署的这份《2026年持续拨款、农业、立法部门、军事建设和退伍军人事务及延期法案》将为联 邦政府提供持续拨款，使大部分政府机构获得资金直至2026年1月30日。 当晚2个小时前，美国国会众议院通过临时拨款法案，投票结果为216票赞成，207票反对，还有几名缺 席。6位民主党议员同共和党人一起投了赞成票。 众议院拨款委员会资深民主党议员德劳罗称，同样的问题可能在明年1月再次触发政府停摆。 恢复正常仍需数周？ 有航空专家表示，即使美国政府重新开放，美国境内的商业航空旅行预计也不会立即恢复正常。专家 称，国会投票决定重新开放政府对消费者以及在政府停摆期间无薪工作的空中交通管制员和其他交通部 工作人员来说都是一种解脱，但整个系统需要一段时间才能恢复。 "我估计需要几周时间。"伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校计算机科学教授、航空安全专家雅各布森 （Sheldon Jacobson）表 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown lasted for a record 43 days and has now ended with the passing of a temporary funding bill, but the economic and social impacts are significant and lasting [1][3] Economic Impact - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown could lead to a $11 billion economic loss if it lasts for 6 weeks, and up to $14 billion if it extends to 8 weeks, with a potential decrease in GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4 [7] - The shutdown has exacerbated an already weak U.S. economy, with canceled flights and delayed consumer spending contributing to long-term economic repercussions [7] Social Impact - Approximately 42 million Americans are affected by disruptions in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program due to the shutdown, leading to significant hardship for low-income families [2] - Federal employees have also faced wage delays, with some relying on food assistance programs during the shutdown [2] Transportation Sector Impact - The shutdown has caused significant disruptions in the aviation sector, with thousands of flights delayed or canceled, leading to operational chaos at airports [4][6] - The Federal Aviation Administration has reduced flight numbers at 40 major airports, with daily cancellations reaching nearly 3,000 and delays exceeding 10,000 flights on certain days [4][6] Political Context - The shutdown reflects deep political polarization in the U.S., with both parties blaming each other for the suffering of the public, particularly low-income individuals [2][3] - The political stalemate has made it increasingly difficult to reach compromises on critical issues such as government funding [7]

Core Points - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasted 43 days and has ended, but the damage caused is largely irreversible [1] - The shutdown resulted in a significant economic impact, with an estimated GDP growth reduction of 1.5 percentage points for Q4, translating to an economic loss of approximately $7 to $15 billion [4] - The shutdown particularly affected Washington D.C., where over 40% of the workforce are government employees, leading to a 50% drop in restaurant revenues during this period [4] Economic Impact - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated that the shutdown caused a permanent economic loss equivalent to the cost of building a new aircraft carrier, approximately $13 billion [4] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has plummeted to a three-year low, decreasing by 6% from the previous month and nearly 30% year-over-year [6][7] Government Operations - The reopening of government does not mean an immediate return to normal operations, as agencies need time to recall personnel and process backlogged work [9] - The backlog includes critical reports on inflation and labor markets that may never be published due to the shutdown [9] Future Risks - The temporary funding measure only extends government operations until January 30, raising concerns about another potential shutdown in less than three months if budget negotiations fail [10] - Key issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding the extension of Obamacare subsidies, which could lead to significant increases in healthcare costs for millions of Americans [10][12] Political Landscape - The political divide remains significant, with increasing difficulty for bipartisan agreements, as evidenced by tensions within the Democratic Party following the shutdown [13] - The next potential shutdown crisis looms as leaders may have to choose between maintaining government operations and preserving their political positions [13]