在美国明尼苏达州又一居民24日遭联邦执法人员枪击身亡后，多名民主党籍联邦参议员表示，将投票反对包含给国土安全部拨款的政府拨 款法案，这使得联邦政府在1月底因资金耗尽再次部分"停摆"的可能性大为增加。 参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默24日晚表示，如果将国土安全部拨款纳入政府拨款法案，民主党人将阻止该法案在参议院通过。舒默说，移 民与海关执法局和边境巡逻队在明尼阿波利斯的行为"令人震惊"，"在美国任何一个城市都不可接受"。 1月25日，在美国加利福尼亚州旧金山，人们为亚历克斯·普雷蒂举行烛光悼念活动。明尼苏达州最大城市明尼阿波利斯24日再次发生联邦 执法人员开枪杀人事件，造成37岁白人男子亚历克斯·普雷蒂死亡。普雷蒂是该市退伍军人医院一名重症监护室护士。新华社发（朱子于摄） 此次两党因移民执法问题引发的争端距离上一次联邦政府停摆仅过了两个多月。 0:00 / 0:53 面临再次"停摆" 美国国会每年通过拨款法案向联邦政府部门或机构拨款。若没有获得拨款，这些部门或机构必须停止所有被视作"不必要"的工作。上一次 美国联邦政府"停摆"始于2025年10月1日，持续43天到2025年11月12日才结束，创下历史记录。 目前， ...

在美国明尼苏达州又一居民24日遭联邦执法人员枪击身亡后，多名民主党籍联邦参议员表示，将投票反 对包含给国土安全部拨款的政府拨款法案，这使得联邦政府在1月底因资金耗尽再次部分"停摆"的可能 性大为增加。 聚焦移民执法部门 参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默24日晚表示，如果将国土安全部拨款纳入政府拨款法案，民主党人将阻止 该法案在参议院通过。舒默说，移民与海关执法局和边境巡逻队在明尼阿波利斯的行为"令人震 惊"，"在美国任何一个城市都不可接受"。 报道说，参议院民主党人向共和党人提出"拆分"这一拨款法案，以避免围绕国土安全部的纠纷"伤及"其 他机构。国土安全部下辖多个负责移民事务的机构，包括移民与海关执法局、海关与边境保护局。此 外，海岸警卫队、特勤局、负责网络安全、机场安全和反恐事务的诸多机构同样隶属国土安全部。 此次两党因移民执法问题引发的争端距离上一次联邦政府停摆仅过了两个多月。 面临再次"停摆" 美国国会每年通过拨款法案向联邦政府部门或机构拨款。若没有获得拨款，这些部门或机构必须停止所 有被视作"不必要"的工作。上一次美国联邦政府"停摆"始于2025年10月1日，持续43天到2025年11月12 日才结束，创下 ...

根据彭博社最新的月度经济学家调查，经济学家们目前预计，美联储最早要到6月才会降息。就在上个 月，经济学家们还预测今年的首次降息将在3月到来。 在经历了美国自2021年以来最强劲的连续两个季度经济增长之后，美联储也并未面临立即降息的压力。 此外，预测人士认为，美国政府停摆对GDP的拖累程度将小于此前预期。美国第四季度GDP增速预计为 2.1%，不仅较此前经济学家的预测翻了一倍以上，也与美国经济的长期趋势水平一致。 在今年应当多快、以及降息多少的问题上，美联储官员内部仍存在分歧，其中持保留态度者主要担心通 胀风险。剔除食品和能源价格的核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数预计今年平均为2.7%，并在2027年 年中前回落至2.2%。 彭博社于1月15日至21日对75位经济学家进行了调查，调查期间，来自特朗普政府、对美联储独立性的 威胁不断加剧。就在调查开始前几天，美国司法部向美联储发出了传票；与此同时，美国最高法院本周 就特朗普是否有权解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）举行了听证。 随着通胀压力仍未完全消退，以及美国劳动力市场出现企稳迹象，经济学家们的降息时间表被进一步推 后。美联储政策制定者偏好的通胀指 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 核心观点： 风险提示： 1)美国经济超预期回落，通胀超预期回升；2)全球地缘政治风险超预期，俄乌危机、巴以冲突 等升级；3)国内经济超预期下行，政策出台力度不及预期；4)中美关税摩擦进一步升级。 发布日期：2026-01-21 免责声明 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号均不是光大证 券研究所的官方订阅号。 1月30日的两党临时预算截止日期将近，美国政府将再次面临停摆考验，但我们认为本轮"关门"风险明显 低于2025年，一季度美国经济数据仍有支撑。 原因一： ...

Group 1: Economic Impact - The actual tariff levels in the U.S. reached the highest in nearly a century during Trump's second term, leading to increased uncertainty in global trade [1][2] - The U.S. soybean growers expressed concerns over escalating tariffs on China, hoping for a new trade agreement to protect their market [3] - Small retailers are forced to raise prices due to the burden of additional tariffs, which has not resulted in the expected economic restructuring [2][3] Group 2: Military Actions - Trump’s administration conducted military strikes in seven countries, with at least 626 airstrikes, significantly exceeding the data from Biden's four-year term [3][4] - The administration's military interventions are seen as contradictory to Trump's earlier claims of ending endless wars, impacting his political legacy negatively [3][4] Group 3: Public Sentiment - Trump's approval rating dropped from 47% to 36% within a year, marking the lowest first-year approval rating for any U.S. president since modern polling began [5] - A significant portion of the public views Trump's first year as a failure, with 58% expressing dissatisfaction with his presidency [5] - Trust in the federal government to make correct decisions has plummeted to 17%, the lowest since 1960 [5] Group 4: Protests and Civil Unrest - Over 33,000 protests and gatherings occurred in the U.S. since January 2025, nearly four times the number during Trump's first term [7][8] - The protests were largely in response to aggressive immigration policies and federal actions, indicating a rise in civil unrest [7][8] Group 5: Government Shutdown - The U.S. government experienced a historic 43-day shutdown due to budget negotiations, affecting around 1.4 million federal employees and leading to significant public discontent [9] - During the shutdown, approximately 42 million people faced food assistance challenges, highlighting the impact on low-income populations [9] Group 6: Future Projections - Analysts predict that Trump's administration will increasingly focus on aggressive foreign policy, moving away from previous diplomatic approaches [10] - The shift towards a more violent and unilateral approach to U.S. foreign policy is expected to continue, undermining the established global order [10]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. is significantly lower than in 2025, with six departmental budgets already passed and preliminary consensus on the remaining six [2] - The Trump administration's focus on foreign issues may lead to a more stable domestic policy environment, reducing the likelihood of a "hard landing" in political negotiations [2] Group 2: Banking Sector - The new "package" loan interest subsidy policy is expected to increase the subsidy scale to between 100 billion and 200 billion, significantly higher than previous rounds, which will support investment and consumption [3] - This policy is anticipated to catalyze a positive market trend for the banking sector, particularly benefiting small and micro enterprises and retail-focused companies [3] Group 3: Real Estate Market - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, while the average transaction price increased by 3.4% [4] - The core 30 cities saw a 8.7% decline in residential land transaction area, with an average price increase of 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in the market [4] - The article suggests that leading state-owned enterprises in real estate will see a recovery in operational performance as supply-side adjustments take effect [4] Group 4: Medical Sector - The surgical robot industry has significant growth potential with low penetration rates, and clearer policy guidelines are expected to drive industry growth [5] - The industry is transitioning from a "consumables-driven" model to a more mature "technology and consumables separation" model, which may enhance profitability [5] - Focus is recommended on segments that meet high-value definitions in the new guidelines, particularly in the laparoscopic robot sector [5] Group 5: Company Analysis - Yanjing Beer is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.584 to 1.742 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 65% [7] - The company's profit is further bolstered by land reserve payments, and product optimization along with channel expansion is driving high sales growth [7] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is set at 1.596, 1.886, and 2.178 billion yuan respectively, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 22x, 18x, and 16x [7]

Economic Performance - In November 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 0.4%[6] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.5%, also above the expected 0.4%[5] - The consumer confidence index reached 54.0 in January 2026, up from 51.0 in October 2025 and 52.9 in November 2025, indicating improved consumer sentiment[23] Market Reactions - Following the release of retail data, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.09%, 0.53%, and 1.00% respectively[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3 basis points to 4.15%, while the 2-year yield fell by 2 basis points to 3.51%[2] Future Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to decline to 1.1% from 4.3% in Q3, but a rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in Q1 2026 due to a low base effect[8] - Tax refunds in Q1 2026 are projected to total between $100 billion and $150 billion, potentially boosting GDP growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points[9] Interest Rate Projections - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve may first cut interest rates in June 2026, with a 47.0% probability of a 25 basis point reduction[26] - The likelihood of a government shutdown at the end of January 2026 is currently estimated at 30%, considered a low probability event[10]

Group 1 - The potential for a new government shutdown poses risks to the airline industry, federal workers, and the release of critical economic data [1][3] - The last government shutdown lasted 43 days and ended in November 2025, during which the S&P 500 index rose by 2.4% [1] - Some government funding bills have already been passed, which may mitigate the impact of a new shutdown [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the more funding bills passed, the smaller the potential impact of a new government shutdown [2][3] - Essential services such as military operations, postal services, and social security payments will continue unaffected during a shutdown [3] - The previous shutdown was primarily due to disputes over subsidies related to the Affordable Care Act, which will be revisited in January [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's FOMC meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity has further heated up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate, Hasset, has an increasing probability of being nominated. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for the trading of liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic macro: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December analyzed and studied the economic work for 2026. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, and the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance will continue. Food prices have rebounded significantly, and prices of household appliances, clothing, airplane tickets, domestic services, and catering have also increased [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous metals like tin and lithium carbonate. Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for industrial commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. On the equity side, the stock index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings have set the tone and is relatively defensive [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Stock index futures**: CSI 300 futures are at 4499.4 with a daily increase of 1.02%, a weekly decrease of 0.14%, a monthly decrease of 2.57%, a quarterly increase of 14.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.75%. Other stock index futures also show different price changes and trends [2]. - **Treasury bond futures**: 2 - year treasury bond futures are at 102.43 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.04%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, a quarterly increase of 0.14%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.53%. Different - term treasury bond futures have different performance [2]. - **Foreign exchange**: The US dollar index is at 98.28 with a daily increase of 0.10%, a weekly increase of 0.226%, a monthly increase of 3%, a quarterly increase of 0.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.40%. Exchange rates between different currencies also show various changes [2]. - **Interest rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is at 1.48 with a daily change of 0 bp, a weekly increase of 2 bp, a monthly decrease of 2 bp, a quarterly increase of 3 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 27 bp. Other interest rates also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Hot industries**: Industries such as comprehensive finance, commerce and trade retail, and consumer services show different price movements and gains or losses in different time periods. For example, the comprehensive finance index is at 880 with a daily increase of 1.139%, a weekly increase of 1.13%, a monthly decrease of 1.78%, a quarterly decrease of 6.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.08% [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 56.68 with a daily decrease of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 51.48%, a monthly decrease of 3.08%, a quarterly increase of 20.225%, and a year - to - date decrease of 21.2%. Different overseas commodities have different price trends [2]. 3.2 Viewpoints on Different Sectors | Sector | Variety | Recent Market Logic | Attention Points | Short - term Judgment | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial | Stock index futures | Technology events catalyze the activity of the growth style | Crowded funds in small - cap stocks | Oscillatory rise | | | Stock index options | The overall market turnover has slightly declined | Insufficient liquidity in the options market | Oscillation | | | Treasury bond futures | The bond market remains weak | Policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises | Oscillation | | Precious metals | Gold/Silver | Geopolitical and trade relations have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals | US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends | Oscillation | | Shipping | Container shipping to Europe | The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and loading pressure lacks upward driving force | The rate of freight decline in September | Oscillation | | Black building materials | Steel, iron ore | The market is still weak, and attention is paid to cost support and demand changes | Special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics | Oscillation | | | Coke | Cost support is strong, and the market oscillates | Steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Coking coal | Supply is difficult to improve, and spot prices continue to rise | Steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Ferrosilicon | Cost support exists, but upward driving force is insufficient | Raw material costs and steel procurement | Oscillation | | | Manganese silicon | Supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the market is under pressure | Cost prices and overseas quotes | Oscillation | | | Glass | Supply cuts have been implemented, and spot prices have risen | Spot sales | Oscillation | | | Soda ash | Downstream replenishment at low prices, and spot prices have slightly increased | Soda ash inventory | Oscillation | | Non - ferrous metals | Copper | Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term | Supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession | Oscillation | | | Aluminum oxide | The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure | Insufficient ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends | Oscillation | | | Aluminum | Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are rising oscillatingly | Macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand | Oscillatory rise | | | Zinc | Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly | Macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply | Oscillation | | Energy and chemical | Crude oil | Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist | OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations | Oscillation | | | LPG | Supply is still in surplus, and attention is paid to cost developments | Cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane | Oscillation | | | Asphalt | Asphalt futures prices may test the 3200 resistance level again | Sanctions and supply disruptions | Oscillatory decline | | | High - sulfur fuel oil | The fuel oil market oscillates weakly | Geopolitics and crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Low - sulfur fuel oil | Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates weakly | Crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Methanol | There is some support at the 2100 level, and methanol oscillates | Macro - energy and overseas dynamics | Oscillation | | | Urea | High inventory suppresses while cost supports, and it oscillates narrowly | Coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference | Oscillation | | | Ethylene glycol | The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimism is hard to reverse | Fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions | Oscillatory decline | | | PX | The market lacks clear guidance, and cost and sentiment compete to maintain oscillation | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | PTA | Xin Fengming starts new and stops old, and short - term new supply is limited | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | Short - fiber | Downstream factories are digesting previous inventories, and processing fees are expected to be compressed | Downstream yarn mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand | Oscillation | | | Bottle - grade polyester chips | Cost is stalemate, and supply - demand driving force is limited | Implementation of bottle - grade polyester chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning | Oscillation | | | Propylene | Downstream transactions have limited improvement, and the market oscillates | Oil prices and domestic macro - situation | Oscillation | | | PP | Fundamental support is limited, and PP weakens | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Plastic | Maintenance has decreased in the short term, and the plastic market is in a weak pattern | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Styrene | There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene oscillates weakly | Oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics | Oscillatory decline | | | PVC | Market sentiment has cooled, and PVC oscillates weakly | Expectations, costs, and supply | Oscillation | | | Caustic soda | Low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates | Market sentiment, production start - up, and demand | Oscillation | | Agriculture | Oils and fats | Market sentiment has improved, waiting for positive factors to ferment | US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data | Oscillation | | | Protein meal | Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong | Weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars | Oscillatory rise | | | Corn/starch | Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates | Demand, macro - situation, and weather | Oscillation | | | Live pigs | Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices oscillate | Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies | Oscillatory decline | | | Natural rubber | The market oscillates and adjusts, and the bearish sentiment remains | Producing area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes | Oscillatory decline | | | Synthetic rubber | It has rebounded from the bottom, and attention is paid to changes in trading sentiment | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil | Oscillatory decline | | | Cotton | The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space | Demand and inventory | Oscillation | | | Sugar | The idea of shorting at high prices is maintained | Imports and Brazilian production | Oscillatory decline | | | Pulp | The market volume has increased, and the enthusiasm for spot - futures arbitrage has risen | Macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes | Oscillation | | | Offset printing paper | Offset printing paper follows the pulp market and strengthens | Production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production start - up dynamics | Oscillation | | | Logs | Logs oscillate at the bottom | Special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume | Oscillation | [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation is that major central banks will maintain accommodative policies in the first half of 2026 to stabilize the economy, with potential support for emerging markets and Hong Kong stock markets [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. tariff policy and record number of government shutdown days are expected to have a short-term impact on market sentiment [1] - A potential interest rate cut in the U.S. in the first half of next year is anticipated to support capital flows into emerging markets [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - There is an opportunity for the Hang Seng Index to exceed 30,000 points again next year [1] - Key sectors to watch for investment opportunities in 2026 include Chinese financials, smart technology, energy and non-ferrous metals, and local financials [1]