Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the final GDP for the first quarter in the United States, preliminary durable goods orders for May, and the trade balance for goods [1] - Additionally, it mentions the weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending June 21 [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit significantly narrowed in April, dropping by 55.5% to $61.6 billion, marking the lowest level in 2023 and reversing the previous quarter's expansion [1] - Imports fell sharply by 16.3%, achieving a record decline, while exports unexpectedly increased by 3% [1] - The reduction in trade deficit is expected to positively impact U.S. GDP in the second quarter, despite potential inventory issues from prior import surges [1][4] Trade Dynamics - The sharp decline in imports was attributed to the implementation of high tariffs, which led to a sudden halt in the "rush to ship" goods before the tariffs took effect [1] - The U.S. trade deficit with China decreased to $19.7 billion, the lowest since the early pandemic, reflecting the impact of tariff policies aimed at achieving fair trade [5] - The trade balance with Canada and Mexico also improved, while the deficit with Switzerland turned into a surplus due to reduced gold exports to the U.S. [5] Economic Indicators - The April trade data suggests a potential positive contribution to GDP, following a 0.2 percentage point decline in the previous quarter [1][4] - However, rising unemployment claims, which reached 247,000, indicate a cooling labor market that could affect economic growth [4] - Adjusted for inflation, the trade deficit narrowed to $85.6 billion, the lowest since the end of 2023 [5]

美国财长贝森特：似乎AI开支正驱动美国GDP增长至多1%。 ...

美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率修正值为下降0.2%，预期下降0.3%，前值为下降0.3%。 ...

美国第一季度年化实际GDP 235280亿美元，前值235261亿美元。 ...

美国一季度实际GDP年化季环比修正值 -0.2%，预期 -0.3%，初值 -0.3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expects economic data to be revised, indicating potential changes in economic outlook [1] Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP showed strong performance in the first quarter, with expectations for data revisions [1] Inflation Policy - The current policies are aimed at reducing inflation [1] Interest Rates - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds is below the federal funds rate, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates [1]

消费支出（占GDP的三分之二）增长1.8%，是自2023年年中以来的最低水平。企业设备支出是报告中 的一个亮点，按年率计算增长22.5%。 展望未来，许多经济学家预计，更高的关税将导致供应冲击，给企业带来挑战，并导致需求下降，因为 价格上涨将现金短缺的美国人推向了崩溃的边缘。 预测者目前认为，美国在明年陷入衰退的几率几乎为50%。消费者也越来越担心关税会对劳动力市场造 成影响，推高生活成本。美国金融交易和预测市场平台Kalshi目前预期今年美国经济衰退的概率为 74%。 最新的GDP数据显示，进口折合成年率激增约41%，是近五年来的最大增幅。因为这些商品和服务不是 在美国生产的，所以在GDP中需要减去。经济学家预计，美国贸易逆差急剧扩大的趋势将在第二季度逆 转。 通常情况下，进口商品会进入仓库或直接进入店面。然而，该报告显示，该季度企业库存对GDP的贡献 为2.25个百分点，为2021年底以来的最高水平。近期大量进口可能会在未来几个月体现为更高的库存， 再加上贸易逆差的缩小，将提振美国第二季度GDP。 由于贸易和库存的波动有时会扭曲整体GDP，经济学家更倾向于关注面向国内私人购买者的最终销售， 以便更好地了解 ...

美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率初值 -0.3%，预期0.3%，前值2.40%。 ...