Group 1 - The Mortgage Market Index (MMI) for May reported a significant drop to 2.8%, a decrease of 74 basis points, marking a 31-month low [1] - Over 95% of new mortgage clients opted for the H mortgage plan in May, influenced by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's market interventions, which increased the banking system's surplus to HKD 174 billion [1] - The average one-month HIBOR fell sharply to 1.47% in May from 3.65% in April, contributing to the decline in MMI and easing the mortgage burden for property buyers in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was reported at 2.4%, slightly up from 2.3% in April, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is still under observation, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates for the time being [2] - There is a belief that if inflation remains manageable, there may be one opportunity for a rate cut in the second half of the year [2]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market perceives a decrease in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June, dropping from 73.7% four weeks ago to 30.2% last week [1] - U.S. non-farm payroll data for April exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in gold prices [1] - If a recession occurs in the U.S. in the second half of the year (excluding stagflation), gold prices may be negatively impacted [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Recommended strategies include shorting base metals and U.S. stocks, going long on silver, holding gold, and maintaining cash positions during market stabilization or rebound [1] - The risk of interest rate cuts hinges on persistent inflation in April and May, which may force the Federal Reserve to prioritize the dollar over economic and employment concerns [1] Group 3: Global Gold Demand and Supply - Global gold demand increased by 1% year-on-year to 1,206 tons in Q1, with central bank demand at 244 tons, remaining at the three-year quarterly average [2] - Investment demand for gold, including ETFs, surged by 170% year-on-year to 552 tons [2] - Despite a 38% increase in gold prices over the past 12 months, global mine supply only rose by 0.3% or 2.3 tons, indicating a lag in supply response to high prices [2] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Economic Policies - The geopolitical risks are expected to escalate significantly over the next two years [3] - Trump's strategy of increasing tariffs aims to influence consumer behavior while simultaneously seeking interest rate cuts to alleviate public financial burdens [3] - The relationship between tariffs and inflation is complex, as tariffs increase costs without directly correlating to currency depreciation [3]