猪价下行趋势依然延续 图片来源：摄图网 近日，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）创始人王宁家族身家超越牧原股份（002714）的秦英林家族，登顶"河南新首富"。 原因除了泡泡玛特风光无限、股价蹭蹭上涨以外，也与牧原股份股价踌躇不前有关，这背后反映的是两个行业景气度的冰火两重天，前者因核心IP Labubu在全球范围内火热而备受瞩目，后者则依然受制于生猪价格不断下行。 牧原与泡泡玛特2024年初以来的股价走势及区间涨幅对比 来源：Choice数据 此外，牧原股份5月底还递交了H股上市申请的资料，距离港股上市又近了一步。 01 2022年至2024年，牧原股份收入分别为1248.26亿元，1108.61亿元、1379.47亿元，净利润分别为149.33亿元、-41.68亿元、189.25亿元。 2025年一季度，牧原股份实现营业收入360.61亿元，同比+37.26%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润44.91亿元，归母扣非净利润为45.09亿元，同比均大 幅扭亏为盈。 可以看出，牧原股份的业绩波动较大。这和生猪养殖行业作为强周期行业有关。 2021年中至最新全国大中城市生猪出场价格走势 来源：Wind 即使抛开2019 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Shaanxi Black Cat reported a significant decline in revenue and an increase in losses, marking the largest annual loss since its listing, with a net profit loss of 1.158 billion yuan [1][5]. Company Performance - Shaanxi Black Cat's revenue fell by 21.58% year-on-year, with a net profit loss expanding from 512 million yuan to 1.158 billion yuan [1]. - The company's Q1 2025 report showed a revenue of 2.585 billion yuan, down 37.31% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 261.6 million yuan, a 23.21% decline [1]. - The company's stock price dropped from a peak of 11.04 yuan in 2021 to around 3 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization reduction from over 20 billion yuan to approximately 6 billion yuan [1]. Business Background - Established in 2003, Shaanxi Black Cat primarily engages in coal coking and chemical product production, with key products including coke, methanol, and coal tar [1][3]. - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2014 and was the first private company in Weinan, Shaanxi [1]. Expansion and Challenges - Following a peak in 2021, the company aggressively expanded its coking projects in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, with a significant investment of 4.7 billion yuan in a 2 million-ton coking project in Xinjiang [5]. - The downturn in the coking industry, characterized by falling coke prices and reduced steel production, has severely impacted the company's financial health [5][7]. Financial Struggles - In 2024, the company recorded nearly 3 billion yuan in asset impairments, significantly affecting its net profit [5]. - The coke business saw a revenue decline of over 20%, with a negative gross margin of 17.12% [5][6]. - Despite a slight decrease in coke sales volume, the revenue drop indicates a substantial decline in product prices [6]. Product Diversification - The sales of by-products such as crude benzene and LNG have become a highlight, generating approximately 3.506 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 24.04% of total revenue [6]. - However, reliance on by-products for profitability is risky due to price volatility and unstable demand, failing to offset the decline in the main coke business [6]. Industry Context - The coking industry has entered a downturn since 2023, with significant impacts on profitability due to reduced steel demand and pricing pressures [7]. - The average price of coke has dropped over 30% from its peak in 2021, with capacity utilization rates remaining low [7]. - Future recovery in the coking industry is uncertain, with expectations of continued pressure on prices and profitability [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company held an earnings presentation for the fiscal year 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, addressing investor inquiries and discussing future growth drivers and challenges in the dye industry [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Presentation Overview - The earnings presentation was conducted online, featuring key executives including the Chairman and General Manager, Financial Director, and independent directors, who engaged with investors on various topics [1]. - The company reported a 21.61% year-on-year increase in revenue from high wash/high sunlight fastness dyes, which now account for over 60% of total revenue [1][2]. Group 2: Future Growth Drivers - The company aims to enhance profitability by focusing on two main strategies: transitioning from low-margin traditional products to high-value eco-friendly dye products, and expanding its customer base by targeting small to medium-sized dyeing enterprises [1][2]. - The company has established itself as a leading player in the dispersed dye industry, which is currently experiencing a gradual recovery from a bottom phase, supported by its technological and customer base advantages [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - The company experienced a 17.57% decline in revenue and a 9.13% drop in net profit for the first quarter, primarily due to industry cycle impacts and losses in the photovoltaic business [2][3]. - The company’s gross and net profit margins improved by nearly 2% year-on-year, attributed to the optimization of its business structure and a focus on high-end dye products [3]. - The first quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was reported at 13.7254 million yuan, a decrease of 9.13% compared to the previous year, influenced by a reduction in government subsidies [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The company anticipates stable operations with minimal external impacts, maintaining an export ratio of 20%-35% and planning to further develop its overseas business [2][3].

Group 1 - Nintendo's stock price has been continuously rising, reaching a historic high with a market value surpassing $100 billion, making it the seventh largest company in Japan [1] - The upcoming launch of Switch 2 is a significant factor boosting investor confidence and driving the company's market value [1][3] - The pre-order demand for Switch 2 is strong, with 2.2 million pre-orders in Japan and high interest in the domestic market [3] Group 2 - Switch 2 features significant upgrades, including a larger screen size of 7.9 inches, 1080P resolution, 120Hz refresh rate, and 4K output in docked mode [3] - The pricing of Switch 2 has increased by approximately 50% compared to the original Switch, with the new model priced at around $3250 RMB for the US version [3] - Despite the excitement surrounding Switch 2, Nintendo faces challenges from competitors like Sony's PS5 and Microsoft's Xbox, as well as declining sales figures for its current hardware and games [4] Group 3 - Nintendo's financial performance has shown a decline, with a 31.4% drop in total sales revenue and a 46.7% decrease in operating profit year-over-year [4] - The company sold 9.54 million Switch units in the first nine months of the fiscal year, a decrease of 30.6% compared to the previous year [4] - Industry experts suggest that Nintendo must adapt to new technologies and changing consumer trends to maintain its market position and drive innovation [5]

以下文章来源于HaoHao学习 ，作者Kerkie李昊@坤初 HaoHao学习 . 一个VC行业创业者的观察、思考、试错和心路历程。Kerkie李昊@坤初产业投资，聚焦泛航空技术的 孵化、投资、产业运营与人才支持。 这篇文章想聊聊行业冰点中的个人选择问题。屁股依然坐在VC/一级市场的里面，但是其实道 理，在任何行业，我觉得都是通的。 先回到VC，行业进入2 0 2 5了。首先说一句，今年VC行业肯定好不了，依然在下行通道。VC 行业真正回暖就看两个指标， 一个IPO市场真正开始活跃起来或者开始市场化，让人有相对稳 定的赚钱预期，一个是市场化的有钱人（不光是个人，包括市场化的FOF、家办等）开始有信 心把钱挪到这个市场里下注 。除此之外，其他措施都只能缓解下滑趋势（当然，这个也非常非 常重要，我觉得国资是有担当的），包括鼓励耐心资本、鼓励国资进场，都不足以企稳。 流动 性是VC的命脉，不解决流动性问题，吃更多/投更多，不能拉出来，一定一肚子粑粑 。另一方 面，VC下行缩窄了，再恶化太多的空间，也不大了。 关于行业周期与个人的选择 当然，今天重点想谈的是个人选择问题。我觉得对于很多行业的个人来说，包括我们自己所在 ...