9月14日晚间，一度飘红的比特币等加密货币突然跳水下跌。 截至14日22：39，比特币、以太坊的加密货币纷纷飘绿。Coinglass网站数据显示，过去24小时内，虚拟货币共有近13万人爆仓。 | 1小时爆仓 | $2331.63万 | 4小时爆仓 | $4655.34万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参展 | $2221.12万 | 参展 | $4264.83万 | | 空車 | $110.52万 | 空車 | $390.51万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $1.27亿 | 24小时爆仓 | $2.97 亿 | | 念東 | $7700.02万 | 念車 | $2.04 7, | | 空車 | $4975.09万 | 空車 | $9297.06万 | | 最近24小时,全球共有 125,700人被爆仓 | | 爆仓总金额为 $2.97 亿 | | | | 司 - - | | | 消息面上，加密货币公司 "Gemini 空间站"创始人、亿万富翁温克莱沃斯兄弟认为，比特币的涨势不会很快停止。事实上，他们预计这 种加密货币在未来十年内将达到100万美元。 分析认为，司法部强调要在9月15 ...

晚间，一度飘红的比特币等加密货币突然跳水下跌。 截至发稿，比特币、以太坊的加密货币纷纷飘绿。Coinglass网站数据显示，过去24小时内，虚拟货币共有近13万人爆仓。 | 总爆仓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1小时爆仓 | $2331.63万 | 4小时爆仓 | $4655.34万 | | 念東 | $2221.12万 | 名車 | $4264.83万 | | 空車 | $110.52万 | 空車 | $390.51 万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $1.27亿 | 24小时爆仓 | $2.97 乙 | | を車 | $7700.02万 | を東 | $2.04 Z | | 空車 | $4975.09万 | 空单 | $9297.06万 | | 最近24小时,全球共有 125,700人被爆仓 | | 爆仓总全额为 $2.97 亿 | | | | 绿天 - | | | 消息面上，加密货币公司"Gemini空间站"创始人、亿万富翁温克莱沃斯兄弟认为，比特币的涨势不会很快停止。事实上，他们预计这种 加密货币在未来十年内将达到100万美元。 此外，美联储理事库克被解职一事又 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global fiscal landscape, particularly focusing on developed economies such as the United States, Japan, Germany, and the European Union. Core Insights and Arguments - Political turbulence in multiple countries is closely linked to fiscal policies, with governments facing pressure to adjust their fiscal strategies due to declining public support [1][3] - The long-term and ultra-long-term interest rates in developed economies have risen significantly, indicating market pricing for potential fiscal expansion [1][4] - A collective fiscal expansion across multiple economies is anticipated in 2026, with significant stimulus measures expected from the US, Japan, Germany, and the EU [1][6] - The trend of de-globalization is increasing inflationary pressures and limiting monetary easing, making large-scale fiscal expansion a necessary response to economic downturns [1][7] - Political polarization poses challenges to timely implementation of fiscal policies, potentially destabilizing the bond market and reducing the effectiveness of fiscal expansion [1][8][9] - Structural issues in developed economies, such as Japan's aging population and Europe's investment shortfalls, limit the effectiveness of fiscal policies [1][10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The US faces rapidly rising interest expenditures, which could strain fiscal sustainability, while Europe and Japan are constrained by mandatory social security expenditures [2][11] - The effectiveness of fiscal stimulus may be compromised by political polarization and the inability to convert fiscal measures into effective economic growth [1][8] - Gold is highlighted as a reliable safe-haven asset amid rising inflation concerns and fiscal expansion, with industrial metals also presenting potential investment opportunities in the near future [1][12]

Core Viewpoint - If Takashi Asami is selected as the successor to Shigeru Ishiba, the Japanese stock market may benefit due to her likely inclination towards fiscal expansion [1] Group 1: Market Implications - Analysts from Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities suggest that Takashi Asami is perceived to have a strong tendency towards expansionary fiscal policies, which could be favorable for the Japanese stock market [1] - Foreign investors are particularly optimistic that Japan's fiscal and monetary policies will shift towards expansion if she becomes the next Prime Minister [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The core inflation rate in Japan has risen to around 3%, making it unlikely for Takashi Asami to implement "excessively loose monetary policies" this year [1] - Takashi Asami's support for nuclear power is expected to positively impact stocks in the electricity and natural gas sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major economies are trapped in a "debt addiction," with expanding fiscal policies leading to a prolonged "debt test" [1] Group 1: Political Uncertainty and Debt Concerns - The surge in global long-term bond yields is ignited by specific political and fiscal events in various countries [4] - France's government faces a confidence vote, raising doubts about its fiscal tightening plans, leading to increased market concerns [5][6] - The yield on 30-year French bonds rose by 8 basis points, with the spread between French and German bonds widening from 70 to 77 basis points [7] Group 2: Persistent High Deficits - Persistent high deficits have become a norm rather than an exception in many countries [12] - Historical data indicates that large-scale deficits were once a wartime phenomenon, but now they are common in countries like the UK, France, and the US [13] - France has not achieved a budget surplus since 1974, while Italy's last surplus dates back to 1925 [14][16] - Moody's predicts that the US fiscal deficit will rise to 9% of GDP over the next decade, even without considering the extension of tax cuts from the Trump era [19] Group 3: Structural Issues Behind Debt Addiction - The rise in long-term bond yields is driven by both cyclical and structural factors [21] - Inflation is a key determinant of short-term interest rates, with UK service sector inflation rising from 4.73% to 4.98%, complicating monetary policy [22][23] - The correlation between sovereign bonds and stocks is increasing, diminishing the hedging value of bonds and leading investors to demand higher long-term yields [28] - Even if short-term rates decline due to economic cycles, long-term rates are unlikely to return to previous low levels due to high government debt and rising term premiums [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Analysis** - **Macro Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, with a short - term downturn. For major global debtors, the expansion of US fiscal spending means the economic aggregate is entering an expansion cycle, but the expansion rhythm is uncertain. If fiscal spending is faster than economic downward pressure, it is "preventive"; otherwise, the risk of a short - term downward cycle increases [2]. - **Price Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and price resilience needs to be eliminated. The "inflation - deflation" relationship between the two major global economies depends on the distribution of the production and consumption systems. In the context of the China - US game, the spill - over effect of US fiscal expansion on China will weaken, promoting the establishment of China's domestic "internal - cycle" debt - consumption system. Before the new cycle starts in October, the "inflation - deflation" contradiction may intensify in the short term [2]. - **Policy Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and there is a policy window period. From the perspective of the US dollar cycle, the liquidity expansion (liabilities) driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle requires corresponding financial market pools (assets). For the US financial sector, the leverage will be released in October, and China's fiscal policy also needs further guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session in October. In September, the Fed's policy easing may face a macro - reality of "lack of assets" or even "asset shocks" [2]. - **Strategy** - **Strategic**: The macro - strategy maintains a positive right - side judgment. Both the US and China have released clear fiscal expansion signals, driving macro - allocation to turn positive. However, the rhythm of policy release is uncertain, causing short - term disturbances. Short - term market adjustments may provide space for medium - term asset allocation [3]. - **Tactical**: In September, maintain a low - risk allocation and hold volatility - hedging positions, actively waiting for the market low point. In the short term, market pressure may continue to flatten the yield curve [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Economic Status: Supply - Driven Improvement in Prosperity - The short - term pressure has eased according to the Huatai Macro Heat Tracking. International trade activities have improved due to tariff relaxation, and short - term production activity repairs have driven the improvement of macro - prosperity. However, the internal consumption demand of major economies is still below the "water level" [7]. Price Factors: Attention to Japan's Inflation Resilience - Prices have stabilized in the short term. The inflation heat value in August was - 0.64, a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The US inflation data in August showed certain resilience, but the Fed has downplayed the consideration of inflation in its policy framework, shifting the focus to the labor market. Globally, Japan's inflation resilience is worthy of attention, which may drive its monetary policy to remain relatively tight and put further pressure on Asian currency liquidity [13]. Policy Conditions: Short - Term Pressure May Increase - **External**: US economic policies have shifted from uncertainty to certainty. In September, there is a risk of increased market volatility during the policy transition period. The passage of the "Great Beauty Act" in July means that US fiscal expectations have shifted from contraction to expansion, with uncertainty only in the impact of the spending implementation rhythm on US Treasury supply. The Fed's relatively dovish monetary policy statement in late August and the implementation of a large - bank leverage - increasing policy in late August (effective in October) have increased the demand for US Treasuries in a context of loose Fed liquidity [19]. - **Internal**: The macro - policy has shifted to a self - centered approach, waiting for the implementation of relevant fiscal and monetary policies in October. The second - quarter monetary policy implementation report in mid - August shows that the monetary policy remains loose, with the focus on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. However, the central bank has strengthened the policy requirement of "preventing capital idling" in the short term, which may cause short - term disturbances to the capital flow. Considering the external policy transition and the resulting increase in market uncertainty, market volatility may rise in September [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that after 2020, the fiscal policies of the US, Europe, and Japan have shifted towards proactive expansion, marking a new era of fiscal activism that directly influences their economic strength and stability [1][6][64] - The fiscal policies of developed economies are no longer limited to being passive stabilizers; they are now actively guiding economic development, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and defense [1][6][64] - The tolerance for high deficits is increasing among Western countries, with the US political parties showing a narrowing gap in their attitudes towards fiscal deficits, and Japan delaying its budget surplus targets [1][6][15] Group 2 - The correlation between fiscal deficit rates and GDP growth rates has been positive from 2019 to 2025, indicating that higher deficits lead to higher GDP growth, with the US benefiting the most from this trend [2][20] - The US is expected to expand its fiscal spending significantly through the "Inflation Reduction Act," which includes tax cuts and increased defense spending, potentially raising its deficit rate to around 7% [3][25][34] - Europe is also shifting towards a more expansionary fiscal stance, with Germany loosening its debt brake rules and establishing a special fund of €500 billion for direct investments and climate transition [3][34][38] Group 3 - The expected economic growth rates for 2026 are projected to be 2.0% for the US, 1.2% for the Eurozone, and 0.5% for Japan, with the US maintaining a lead in growth due to its fiscal policies [4][56] - Germany is anticipated to see a significant improvement in its GDP growth rate, potentially reaching 0.9% in 2026, driven by increased defense and infrastructure spending [4][56] - The fiscal stimulus effects are expected to be 0.6% for the US, 0.2% for the Eurozone, and only 0.1% for Japan, indicating varying levels of fiscal impact across these regions [4][52][56]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that after 2020, the fiscal policies of the US, Europe, and Japan have shifted towards proactive expansion, marking a new era of fiscal activism that directly influences their economic strength and stability [1][6][64] - The fiscal policies of developed economies are no longer limited to being passive stabilizers; they are now actively guiding economic development, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and defense [1][6][64] - The tolerance for high deficits has increased among Western countries, with the US political parties showing a narrowing gap in their attitudes towards fiscal deficits, and Japan delaying its budget surplus targets [1][6][15] Group 2 - The correlation between fiscal deficit rates and GDP growth rates has been established, indicating that higher deficits lead to higher GDP growth. The US has benefited the most from this trend, with its GDP growth outpacing that of the EU by 4 percentage points from 2019 to 2023 due to stronger fiscal stimulus [2][20][64] - The US is expected to extend and expand tax cuts and defense spending through the "Inflation Reduction Act," with an anticipated deficit rate of around 7% next year [3][25][34] - Europe is shifting towards a more expansionary fiscal stance, increasing defense, infrastructure, and clean energy spending, with Germany establishing a special fund of €500 billion to support these initiatives [3][34][38] Group 3 - The expected economic growth rates for the US, Europe, and Japan in the coming year are projected to be 2.0%, 1.2%, and 0.5% respectively, with the US maintaining a lead in growth due to its fiscal policies [4][56][64] - Germany is expected to see a significant improvement in its GDP growth rate, projected to increase by 0.9% in 2026, driven by its relaxed fiscal stance and increased defense and infrastructure spending [4][56][64] - The fiscal multiplier effects are anticipated to be strongest in the US, with a projected impact of 0.6% on GDP growth, while the effects in Europe and Japan are expected to be weaker at 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [4][52][56]

Profit Trends - In July, the year-on-year decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed for the second consecutive month, decreasing by 2.8 percentage points to -1.5%[3] - Cumulative year-on-year profit decline was -1.7%, slightly narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to June[3] - The main driver for profit recovery in July was a significant reduction in operating costs, which fell by 1.1 percentage points to 0.8%, marking a new low since September 2024[3] Revenue and Costs - July revenue saw a slight year-on-year decline of 0.5%, with cumulative revenue also dropping by 0.2 percentage points to 2.3%, the lowest since the beginning of the year[3] - Cumulative expenses per 100 yuan of revenue remained stable at 8.38 yuan, with operating expenses further dragging down profits by 0.1 percentage points[3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing and public utilities saw slight improvements in cumulative profits, rising by 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points to 4.8% and 3.9% respectively[4] - Conversely, the mining sector experienced a worsening cumulative profit decline of 1.3 percentage points to -31.6%, a new low due to previous price competition pressures[4] Inventory and Market Conditions - Finished goods inventory saw a significant year-on-year decline of 0.7 percentage points to 2.4%, with actual inventory dropping by 0.8 percentage points to 6.2%, the lowest since the beginning of the year[4] - The ongoing downturn in the real estate market and strict control over new hidden debts are suppressing production confidence among industrial enterprises[4] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that effective governance of chaotic price competition and continuous cost reductions are key to the slight recovery in industrial profits[5] - However, insufficient domestic demand and declining revenue growth pose challenges for sustainable profit increases in industrial enterprises[5] - Monetary policy may consider slight interest rate cuts to stabilize the real estate market and support durable consumer goods demand[5]

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally is primarily driven by government fiscal expansion rather than improvements in the fundamental economy, leading to concerns about sustainability and potential adjustments in the near future [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stock market's rise this year is attributed to significant government intervention, with an estimated 3.5 trillion yuan injected into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks through various channels [2]. - Institutional confidence has increased following government investments, prompting further buying activity, while retail investors are still hesitant to enter the market [2][5]. - The current market sentiment is cautious, with many retail investors recalling past experiences of buying at market peaks and facing losses [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Despite the stock market's performance, key economic indicators such as GDP growth and employment have not shown significant improvement compared to last year, leading to skepticism about the market's upward trajectory [1][4]. - The government has increased the fiscal deficit rate from 3% to 4%, with net financing of government bonds reaching 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, indicating a need for careful fiscal management moving forward [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the stock market rally is contingent on continued government support and retail investor participation; without these, a market correction may be imminent [6][8]. - The government's focus on investing in projects with future returns suggests a cautious approach to fiscal spending, which could impact market dynamics if not aligned with corporate profitability [7][8].