Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar (USD), driven by diverging monetary policy expectations between Australia and the US, alongside strong economic fundamentals in Australia [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of January 12, 2026, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at 0.6697, having increased by 0.1945% during the day, with a trading range between 0.6671 and 0.6706 [1]. - The AUD has shown a significant upward movement since the end of 2025, reaching a peak of approximately 0.68 on January 7, 2026, marking the highest level since mid-2025 [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The divergence in monetary policy expectations is a key driver of the AUD/USD exchange rate, with the market anticipating a cumulative 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2026, which is suppressing the USD [2]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) faces uncertainty regarding its policy direction, having cut rates three times in 2025, while inflation rates have rebounded significantly, with the overall inflation rate reaching 3.2% in Q3 2025 and 3.8% in October 2025, exceeding the target range of 2%-3% [2]. Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - Australia's economy is performing robustly, with GDP growth increasing to 2.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by a recovery in private demand [3]. - The labor market remains tight, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.3% as of November 2025 [3]. - The AUD, as a commodity currency, is closely linked to commodity prices, particularly iron ore, which has seen a significant rebound since late 2025, positively impacting the AUD and Australian export levels [3]. Group 4: External Factors and Market Sentiment - Global risk sentiment and external risks significantly influence the AUD/USD exchange rate, with changes in risk appetite affecting the performance of the AUD [3]. - China's demand, particularly for iron ore, is crucial for Australian exports and the AUD's performance, as China is a major importer of Australian iron ore [3]. - Factors such as rising global trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions may increase short-term volatility in the AUD [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the AUD/USD exchange rate will depend on several key variables, including upcoming RBA monetary policy meetings, the pace of Fed rate cuts, and US economic data [4]. - The prices of iron ore and other commodities, changes in Chinese demand, and global trade and geopolitical dynamics will continue to play significant roles in influencing the exchange rate [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,580 per ounce, is driven by a combination of economic expectations and geopolitical tensions [1][3][4] Economic Factors - The U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, reinforcing market predictions for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Lower interest rates reduce the holding costs for non-yielding assets like gold, increasing their attractiveness [3] - Since the Fed's three consecutive rate cuts in the second half of last year, the market has prepared for a more accommodative monetary environment [3] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing domestic unrest in Iran has created political uncertainty, triggering increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Heightened geopolitical risks typically lead investors to seek traditional "safe havens" during times of instability [3] Market Trends - Silver prices have also reached historical highs, continuing a nearly 10% increase from the previous week, while palladium and platinum have strengthened as well [3] - This indicates that current capital flows are not solely focused on gold but are reassessing the entire precious metals sector [3] Long-term Perspectives - Despite significant gains in gold over the past year, funds have not rushed to exit, with some asset management firms choosing to maintain their positions, reflecting a recognition of gold's long-term value [3] - A long-term examination of the U.S. dollar's credibility is also contributing to gold's status as a strategic asset [3] Potential Variables - A forthcoming Supreme Court ruling on key tariff policies from the previous administration may impact policy continuity and market stability expectations, adding another layer of global risk sentiment [3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】2026 年第 1 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要： Let the future tell the truth, and evaluate each one according to his work and accomplishments. —Nikola Tesla 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2026 年 01 月 06 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《开年话躁动——总量"创"辩第 119 期》 2026-01-06 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 57 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-12-29 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 56 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-12-15 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 55 期：美联储继续降 息，同时重启扩表——12 月美联储议息会议点评 2025 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Euro/USD exchange rate is stable around 1.1770, with support near the three-month high of 1.1800, reflecting cautious market sentiment as the year-end approaches [1] - The mid-term structure of Euro/USD remains favorable, with a weak performance of the dollar and differing policy expectations between major economies supporting the exchange rate [1] - Investors are focusing on the upcoming December monetary policy meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve, as previous internal disagreements on rate cuts have led to cautious market sentiment regarding U.S. long-term interest rates [1] Group 2 - Technically, Euro/USD has found support near 1.1760 after a slight pullback from the recent high of 1.1808, with the upward trend line from mid-November still providing effective support [3] - Short-term indicators show neutral to slightly weak momentum, with the RSI hovering in the neutral zone and MACD indicating a need for time to repair momentum [3] - Key support is concentrated around the trend line at 1.1760 and the 1.1750 level, while the important resistance area is at 1.1805, with potential targets for further upward movement at 1.1820 and 1.1863 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of precious metal futures, particularly platinum futures hitting the limit up, and silver prices surging by 8% [1][2] - The report from Nanhua Futures indicates that the precious metals market is experiencing limited supply, shallow inventory, and strong demand from investment and allocation, driven by global competition for pricing and inventory [1][2] - Geopolitical complexities are boosting the demand for precious metals as a safe haven and for inflation hedging [1][2] Group 2 - The silver market is characterized by a smaller scale, rigid industrial demand, and a tight spot market, making prices highly sensitive to increased investment and speculative demand [1][2] - Future attention should be given to the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman and how data may influence monetary policy expectations [1][2] - In the short term, gold remains strong after breaking previous highs, while silver exhibits high volatility, indicating significant price risks [1][2]

Group 1 - The bond market experienced fluctuations in December, with weak performance particularly in the ultra-long end, and the year-end allocation market has not yet emerged [1] - As of December 24, the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields were reported at 1.8370% and 2.22%, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.8 and 4 basis points since the end of November [1] - The yield spread between the 30-year and 10-year government bonds has generally trended upward since September 2024, with significant fluctuations observed [1][2] Group 2 - The relationship between yield spreads and economic cycles indicates that a strengthening economic outlook and monetary easing can support the recovery of yield spreads [2] - The demand for ultra-long government bonds has changed, with a weakening trading volume observed, despite the expectation of a rebound in yields in 2025 [2] - Factors supporting the further widening of the yield spread include changes in asset allocation by insurance institutions and reduced demand from banks for ultra-long bonds [2][3] Group 3 - The current global liquidity environment remains loose, and the domestic economic and policy landscape is stabilizing, leading to continued pressure on the bond market in the short term [3] - The short-term volatility of the 30-year government bond is expected to increase, with the possibility of further widening of the yield spread against the 10-year bond [3]

现货黄金： 12月24日，消息面：周三亚洲交易时段，黄金价格（XAU/USD）延续强劲涨势，突破每盎司4520美元 关口，创出历史新高，随后回落。当前市场环境下，黄金的上涨逻辑主要由避险需求和货币政策预期共 同驱动。首先，地缘不确定性持续发酵，显著抬升市场避险情绪。近期围绕委内瑞拉的紧张局势不断升 级，与原油运输和国际航运相关的不稳定因素，促使资金持续流入避险资产。 技术面：从日线结构来看，黄金延续明显的多头趋势。价格稳稳运行在100日指数均线之上，中期趋势 保持完好；布林带持续向上张口，显示趋势性行情仍在延伸。不过，14日RSI已运行至70上方，进入超 买区间，提示短线存在技术性整理或高位震荡的可能。若价格能够持续站稳4500美元心理关口，上方目 标有望指向4550美元，甚至测试4600美元整数位；反之，一旦出现回调，4470美元和4430美元区域将成 为重要支撑带。晚间重点关注上方4520-4550美元一线压力，下方关注4450-4420美元一线支撑。个人预 计：高空为主，低多为辅。GOLD分水岭：4470美元/盎司！ 黄金中线参考策略： 空单：激进4515±5区间进场，稳健等4544±5区间再做，止损： ...

前言：富格林立足大中华市场合规运营近16年来，依靠领跑行业的资深分析经验和雄厚企业实力，斩获亚洲500强名企美誉，完善的市场分析 师专家团队坚持科学引导为广大投资者构建可信高效操作套路，运筹帷幄金市获利先机。周三(12月24日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格短线突然暴 涨，金价最高触及4525美元/盎司。尽管在强于预期的美国GDP数据公布后，金价自日内高位明显回落，但在假期缩短的交易周中，避险情绪 依然占据主导，主要源于美国与委内瑞拉之间不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势。投资者可即时线上联系富格林专家老师，合规获取即时策略市况 分析及可信盈利套路指导。 富格林资深分析师指出，在当前环境下黄金的需求驱动更加多元且流动。一方面，黄金继续扮演货币贬值对冲工具的角色，用于抵御通胀或货 币购买力下降。另一方面，它仍是美元资产的竞争产品。央行与投资者持续强劲的黄金需求预计仍将持续，成为支持黄金价格的核心要素。各 国央行增加实物黄金储备，以对冲经济不确定性、降低对美元的依赖并实现投资组合多元化。世界黄金协会数据显示，除5月外今年黄金ETF 总持仓量每个月都在增加。与此同时，国际社会对黄金在地缘政治和金融体系中的作用愈发关注，甚至在一定程 ...

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Recent bond market fluctuations have increased due to intense fluctuations in monetary policy expectations, leading to frequent band - trading by trading funds and amplifying market volatility. The market's view is that funds are difficult to tighten, and the bond market is difficult to rise significantly. Trading funds can conduct band operations based on changes in monetary policy expectations, but the bond market has limited space until the factors restricting the entry of allocation funds subside [6][9]. - The main reason for the cautious attitude of long - term bond - allocating funds such as banks and insurance companies towards the 2026 bond market includes expectations of a "good start" in financial, inflation, and economic data at the beginning of the year, government bond issuance front - loading, insurance "good start" product structure, weakening bond profit - making effects, and the spread of credit risks in some industries [6][12]. - After entering 2026, attention can be paid to whether there are changes in bank behavior. On one hand, banks' indicator pressure eases, which may enhance their bond - allocating motivation; on the other hand, strong credit reserve at the beginning of the year may put pressure on the capital side and restrict their bond - allocating demand. Near the end of the year, changes in the certificate of deposit market can be observed [6][13]. Group 2: This Week's Fixed - Income Market Concerns Overseas Data Release - This week, the US will release data such as the October durable goods orders monthly rate, and Japan will release the November unemployment rate [14][15]. Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds is expected to be 240 billion yuan, at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to be issued with a scale of about 188 billion yuan, local bonds with a scale of 2.04 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds with a scale of about 50 billion yuan [15]. Group 3: Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook 14 - Day Reverse Repurchase Initiation - Near the end of the year, the central bank initiated 14 - day reverse repurchases on Thursday and Friday, with a total reverse - repurchase investment of 657.5 billion yuan and a net withdrawal of 11 billion yuan. After adding the 30 - billion - yuan maturity of central bank bills, the open - market operations had a net investment of 19 billion yuan. The money market showed an increase in volume and a decrease in price [17][18]. Bond Market Sentiment Repair - Last week, the bond market's optimistic sentiment increased, and with the central bank's support for the year - end, most bond market interest rates were repaired. The extremely long - term bonds fluctuated greatly, rising significantly and then falling back to the previous week's level. The yields of most periodic interest - rate bonds were repaired, with the 3 - year China Development Bank bonds and Export - Import Bank bonds having the largest decline of about 5.5bp [32]. Group 4: High - Frequency Data Production End - Most of the operating rates declined. The blast furnace operating rate decreased from 78.6% to 78.5%, the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased from 71.6% to 71.4%, the PTA operating rate remained flat at 73.8%, and the asphalt operating rate slightly decreased from 27.8% to 27.6%. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early December narrowed, with a reading of - 11.3% [36]. Demand End - The year - on - year decline in the wholesale and retail sales of passenger car manufacturers both improved compared to last week. The year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area remained large. The land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction area increased. The export indices SCFI and CCFI increased by 3.1% and 0.6% respectively [36]. Price End - Crude oil prices declined, while copper and aluminum prices increased. Coal prices were divided, with the thermal coal futures settlement price remaining flat and the coking coal futures settlement price increasing by 7.9%. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index, cement index, and glass index changed by 0.7%, 0.4%, and - 1.1% respectively. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory decreased rapidly to 3.13 million tons, with the futures price increasing by 1.4%. In the downstream consumer end, the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by - 1.3%, 1.6%, and 0.2% respectively [37].

摘要今日周二(12月23日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于1016元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 1012.36元/克，涨幅0.85%，最高上探至1016.31元/克，最低触及1003.67元/克。目前来看，现货黄金短 线偏向看涨走势。黄金在段延续涨势，价格再创历史新高。因地缘政治风险升温，市场敏感度显著增 强，资金加速涌入避险资产，推动金价走高。 今日周二(12月23日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于1016元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报1012.36 元/克，涨幅0.85%，最高上探至1016.31元/克，最低触及1003.67元/克。目前来看，现货黄金短线偏向看 涨走势。黄金在段延续涨势，价格再创历史新高。因地缘政治风险升温，市场敏感度显著增强，资金加 速涌入避险资产，推动金价走高。 【要闻速递】 近期多地局势趋紧，直接威胁能源与航运安全，令全球经济前景更添变数，为黄金构筑稳固需求底座。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 从日线级别观察，黄金依旧维持强势多头格局。价格稳稳运行于100日指数移动均线之上，中期向上的 趋势清晰可见；布林带持续扩张，表明趋势性行情仍在推进。 动能指标方面，14日RSI已攀升至70以上 ...