Core Market Data - On October 21, 2025, the international precious metals market experienced a significant downturn, with London spot gold prices dropping by as much as 6.3%, reaching a low of $4003.43 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013 [1] - Concurrently, spot silver saw an even steeper decline of 8.7%, setting a record for single-day drops since 2021. This plunge triggered a chain reaction in global markets, leading to a 1.98% drop in the A-share gold concept sector on October 22, with individual stocks like Western Gold and Zhaojin Mining falling over 5% [1] Market Performance - As of October 23, 2025, a phase of rebound was observed, with London gold rising to $4112.45 per ounce, a 2.7% increase from the low point. New York gold futures reached $4121.6 per ounce, reversing the daily change to a positive 1.38% [2] - The Shanghai gold T+D closed at 940.05 yuan per gram, and Shanghai gold futures at 942.28 yuan per gram, showing significant recovery from the intraday lows, although still below pre-crash levels [2] - The volatility of London gold reached 8.9% from October 21 to 23, far exceeding the average volatility of 2.1% in the third quarter [2] Market Linkage - During the gold price crash, global asset prices exhibited a notable "risk appetite recovery" characteristic, with the three major U.S. stock indices rebounding: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite saw weekly gains of 1.56%, 1.70%, and 2.14%, respectively [3] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell from 25.31 to 21.5, indicating a clear trend of funds moving from safe-haven assets to risk assets [3] - In the commodity market, silver followed gold's decline but rebounded more strongly, with London silver rising by 2.00% on October 23. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil prices increased from $55.96 per barrel on October 21 to $60.74 per barrel on October 23, a three-day increase of 8.5% [3] Core Driving Factors - The easing of geopolitical risks, particularly the temporary de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contributed to the decline in gold prices. A joint statement from leaders of Germany, France, and the UK on October 21 called for an immediate halt to military actions, which alleviated tensions [4] - However, this situation reversed within 48 hours as the U.S. announced significant sanctions against major Russian oil companies, leading to a rebound in gold prices on October 23, reflecting the "pulse-like" nature of geopolitical impacts on gold prices [4] Market Structure and Dynamics - The gold market had experienced a "historic" rise in 2025, with prices soaring from $2500 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $4380 per ounce by mid-October, a cumulative increase of over 75% [10] - The extreme rise in prices led to significant profit-taking pressure, with speculative positions reaching historical highs, indicating that the market was nearing a critical adjustment point [10][11] - The technical breakdown on October 21, where gold prices fell below the $4120 per ounce level, triggered a wave of stop-loss orders, exacerbating the decline [12] Industry Impact - The sharp decline in gold prices directly affected the profitability of gold mining companies. For instance, Barrick Gold's production cost in Q3 2025 was $1250 per ounce, and if gold prices remain below $4000 per ounce, profit margins could drop significantly [19] - Midstream refining and processing companies faced inventory devaluation pressures, with significant drops in processing orders observed shortly after the price crash [20] - Retail markets showed a split response, with some investors viewing the drop as a buying opportunity, while others chose to wait, leading to varied sales performance across different brands [21] Global Financial Market Effects - The gold price crash triggered capital outflows from emerging markets, particularly affecting stock markets in gold-consuming countries like India and Turkey [22] - Some localized risks emerged in the derivatives market, with a European investment bank reporting significant losses due to client defaults on gold forward contracts [23] - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term trend of central banks increasing gold reserves remained intact, with significant net purchases continuing [24] Historical Comparison - The current gold price decline contrasts with the April 2013 crash, which was driven by fundamental shifts in monetary policy, while the recent decline is attributed to short-term factors and market sentiment [25] - The ongoing increase in central bank gold purchases is expected to provide a stabilizing effect on the market, suggesting that the current adjustment may be a temporary phase within a broader bullish trend [26] Future Outlook - Short-term price movements are expected to oscillate between $3950 and $4300 per ounce, influenced by upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical developments [28] - Long-term structural factors, including the acceleration of de-dollarization and ongoing central bank gold purchases, are likely to support gold prices moving forward [31]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the tactical overweight view on A/H shares due to multiple supporting factors such as China's technological breakthroughs, stable total policy expectations, and capital market reforms that enhance market risk appetite [1] - The article notes that the trade risk boundaries are clearer, with China's countermeasures directly targeting key issues, making further U.S. tariffs less meaningful [1] - There is a continuous demand for quality assets in China, driven by the need to "find assets," which may provide allocation opportunities amid external market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The article maintains a tactical benchmark view on U.S. Treasuries, anticipating a mild decline in actual interest rates due to the Fed's increasingly dovish monetary policy guidance [1] - The article highlights that the imbalance between credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market, despite previous adjustments [2] - The article expresses a positive outlook on gold, noting that it has surpassed key resistance levels and is supported by global geopolitical tensions and ongoing purchases by the Chinese central bank [2] Group 3 - The article asserts that the resilience of the Chinese economy and the decreasing risk of extreme geopolitical conflicts support the stability and appreciation of the RMB exchange rate [3] - It predicts that the RMB will exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with a stable appreciation trend amid a complex global macro environment [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant drop in gold prices, with a record decline of 5.3% on October 21, marking the largest single-day drop since August 2020, driven by profit-taking, reduced safe-haven demand, and macroeconomic changes [1][2][7] - Gold prices reached a high of $4381 per ounce earlier in the year but fell to a low of $4083.15 within a single day, reflecting a nearly $300 drop [1][2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its 21st day, has created a data vacuum, increasing market anxiety ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [4] Group 2 - The market is reacting to the potential for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China, with optimism surrounding negotiations resuming in Malaysia [5] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has also influenced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with expectations of a possible ceasefire reducing demand for gold [5][7] - The Federal Reserve's dovish outlook and expectations for interest rate cuts in the coming months may provide some support for gold prices, despite the recent downturn [4][7] Group 3 - The articles suggest that the recent drop in gold prices may present a buying opportunity for investors, as the long-term fundamentals supporting gold remain intact [7] - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming economic indicators, including CPI data and developments in U.S.-China trade talks, as these will significantly impact gold price movements [7] - The oil market is also experiencing fluctuations, with WTI crude oil prices rising due to U.S. plans to purchase oil for strategic reserves, indicating a complex interplay between different commodities [10]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with a daily decline of 5.3% on October 21, closing at $4124 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop since August 2020 [1][3] - The price of gold reached a low of $4083.15 during the day, falling nearly $300 from its intraday high, which has caused concern among investors [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased approximately 60%, reaching a record high of $4381.21 on October 20, before the dramatic reversal [1][3] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors, reduced safe-haven demand, and subtle changes in the macroeconomic environment [1][3] Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.34% to 98.98, increasing the cost of gold for holders of other currencies, thereby suppressing demand [3] - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29, with expectations for further cuts in December [3] - The sharp decline in gold prices is primarily driven by collective profit-taking at high levels, following a strong year supported by geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases [3][4] Geopolitical Factors - Recent optimistic signals regarding international trade, particularly comments from President Trump about a potential trade agreement with China, have eased market concerns about trade wars [4] - Expectations of a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] - Domestic political developments, including the ongoing government shutdown and negotiations to end it, have contributed to market uncertainty, further reducing safe-haven demand for gold [4][5] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a significant bearish reversal, with gold prices breaking through multiple support levels, suggesting a potential reconfiguration of the market [7] - Short-term trading strategies may focus on resistance around $4200 and support levels near $4060 and $4000 [7]

Group 1 - The article maintains a tactical overweight view on A/H shares, supported by multiple factors such as the ongoing enthusiasm for China's technological breakthroughs and emerging industries, stable total policy expectations, and capital market reforms that boost market risk appetite [1] - The article highlights that the trade risks are relatively clear, with China's countermeasures directly targeting key issues, and the impact of U.S. tariffs becoming less significant [1] - There is a continuous demand for quality assets in China, driven by the need for investors to "find assets," which may provide allocation opportunities amid external market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The article suggests a tactical benchmark view on U.S. Treasuries, as expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve may lead to a mild decline in real interest rates [1] - The article notes that the balance of credit supply and demand remains unbalanced, which, along with stable liquidity, supports the bond market [2] - The article anticipates that geopolitical uncertainties and rising risk aversion will lead to fluctuations in domestic interest rates, while the marginal improvement in liquidity may stabilize bond market sentiment [2] Group 3 - The article maintains a tactical benchmark view on the Chinese yuan, citing the resilience of the Chinese economy and the expectation of a stable appreciation of the yuan amid a complex global macro environment [3] - It is expected that the yuan will exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with a stable central tendency [3] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the positive outlook for gold, maintaining a tactical overweight view, as gold prices have surged past key resistance levels due to supportive factors such as Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2] - The article predicts that gold will continue to perform well in the short term and has long-term allocation value [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including increased safe-haven demand, monetary policy expectations, and technical buying signals, indicating a strong upward momentum in the gold market [1][3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices experienced a "V-shaped reversal," initially dropping below $4230 per ounce but rebounding to surpass $4350, reflecting a daily increase of nearly 2% [2]. - Last week, gold reached a historical high of $4380.79 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 5.69%, despite a 1.8% technical correction on the previous Friday [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Increased safe-haven demand is driven by renewed concerns over U.S. regional bank risks and ongoing political deadlock in the U.S. government, alongside geopolitical tensions in the Gaza region [3]. - Market expectations are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in both October and December meetings, with indications that the Fed may end its balance sheet reduction soon [3]. - Technical analysis shows strong support for gold prices in the $4200-$4250 range, which coincides with key moving averages, indicating robust buying interest at lower levels [3]. Group 3: Technical Signals - The key support level for gold is identified at $4200, with a critical resistance level at $4378. A weekly close above this resistance could trigger further price acceleration [4]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 57, suggesting that as long as it remains above 50, a healthy consolidation rather than a deep correction is likely [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - While the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, short-term risks of price pullbacks are present due to high market congestion and potential profit-taking by market makers [5]. - Changes in trade relations, particularly comments from President Trump regarding tariffs, may limit upward price potential for gold [5]. - Upcoming key data, such as the U.S. October CPI report, will play a decisive role ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC rate decision [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The long-term investment value of gold remains significant, supported by ongoing central bank purchases, including a continuous increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China [6]. - For short-term trading, attention should be given to the $4300-$4320 support area for potential buying opportunities, while a drop below $4300 would warrant a reassessment of positions [6].

图源：皇御贵金属官网 ● 金价涨跌背后，源自多方因素"角力" 金价连续刷新高位源于避险需求、央行购金与货币政策预期三大因素共同助推。10月1日美国联邦政府 陷入停摆，多项经济数据发布中断引发市场担忧，黄金作为避险资产吸引大量资金涌入；与此同时，今 年全球央行对黄金的青睐有增无减，波兰、土耳其、哈萨克斯坦三国年内合计增持超百吨黄金，全球官 方黄金储备需求创下55年来新高，为金价提供了强有力的底层支撑；此外，美联储9月已降息25个基 点，市场对10月再次降息25个基点的预期不断升温，现金持有收益弱化，进一步倒逼资金转向金市，三 重力量叠加推动金价不断冲高。 2025-10-21 10:40:13 作者：狼叫兽 近期国际黄金市场行情火爆，犹如一部跌宕起伏的大片：先是一路飙升突破4059美元/盎司高位，随后 上演超100美元的暴力回调。这种多空激烈博.弈的格局，恰恰为交易者创造了双向获.利土壤。作为一家 拥有香港黄金交易所AA类79号行员资质的正规平台，皇御贵金属同步推出$50000赠金活动，让入市投 资者在把握行情红利的同时收获惊喜福利。 金市短期尽管出现了极致震荡局面，但不改长期牛市逻辑。全球地缘紧张局势根源未除 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is facing downward pressure due to political uncertainty in France and a dovish shift in European Central Bank interest rate expectations [1][2] Group 1: Currency Movements - The Euro to USD exchange rate is currently at 1.1572, with a slight increase of 0.01% [1] - The Euro to GBP exchange rate is under pressure, testing the support level of 0.8675, influenced by ongoing political uncertainty in France [1] - The Euro has significantly retraced from a peak of 0.8724 last Friday, indicating a notable decline [1] Group 2: Political Factors - President Macron's refusal to resign amid a new government facing a vote of no confidence is exacerbating market concerns [1] - The political deadlock in France is contributing to the downward pressure on the Euro [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The European Central Bank's shift towards a dovish stance is adding to the pressure on the Euro [1] - There are expectations that the Bank of England may further cut interest rates, with concerns that UK inflation may decline slower than anticipated [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators for the Euro show significant downward pressure, with the Bollinger Bands expanding and moving averages trending downwards [2] - Initial resistance levels are identified at 1.1630 and 1.1731, while support levels are at 1.1528 and 1.1504 [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the National Day holiday in 2025, international gold prices rose continuously. New York and London gold prices broke through the key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce, with a holiday increase of over 4% and a year - to - date increase of over 50%. The strong performance of gold prices is mainly due to the resonance of three driving factors: surging避险需求 driven by government shutdowns and geopolitical conflicts, expectations of monetary policy including interest - rate cut trades and damaged US dollar credit, and structural inflow of funds with central bank and ETF buying [3][26]. - On the night of last Friday, due to President Trump's post on social media about imposing a 100% tariff on China, commodities and US stocks generally declined, while the gold price fluctuated upwards. Sino - US trade frictions have increased market避险情绪, which is beneficial for precious metals, and gold may continue to outperform silver. However, the short - term general decline of assets may lead to liquidity problems, causing short - term pressure on the gold price. It is expected that precious metals may show a trend of first decline and then rise, and attention can be paid to the support at the $4,000 level for overseas gold and the RMB 900 level for domestic gold [3][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Trend**: No specific text description of the weekly trend is provided, only a chart of the US dollar index linkage is mentioned [7]. - **Indicator Changes**: From September 30th to October 10th, COMEX gold increased by 3.80% from $3,887.60 to $4,035.50, COMEX silver increased by 1.44% from $46.84 to $47.52, SHFE gold futures increased by 3.11% from 874.40 to 901.56, and SHFE silver futures increased by 1.50% from 10,918.00 to 11,082.00. The US dollar index increased by 1.06%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB increased by 0.22%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.05, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.03%, and the US crude oil continuous contract decreased by 6.71%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 2.33%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 1.58%. The SPDR gold ETF increased by 4.28, and the iShare gold ETF increased by 3.69 [8]. 3.2 Escalation of Trade Frictions and Rising Safe - Haven Demand - During the National Day holiday, international gold prices rose continuously, and after the holiday, the prices remained strong. On Friday night, due to Trump's statement about imposing tariffs on China, market避险情绪 quickly rose. However, the gold price showed a fluctuating upward trend rather than a one - sided increase, mainly because the general decline of global assets led to short - term liquidity problems and put pressure on the gold price [10]. - The expectation of Sino - US trade frictions rapidly escalated last Friday night, causing the market panic to spread quickly and the US stock market to decline significantly [12]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to the data on September 23rd, compared with the previous week, the long - position change was 6,030 contracts, the short - position change was 5,691 contracts, and the net long - position change was 339 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [14]. - Last week, the ETF holdings changed little. Due to the rising避险情绪 last week, the increase of gold was greater than that of silver, and the gold - silver ratio continued to rise. Also, last Friday, due to the escalating expectation of Sino - US trade frictions, the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined significantly, and the 10 - 2 year spread narrowed [16][20][22]. 3.4 Conclusion - The strong performance of gold prices is due to the resonance of three factors: surging避险需求, expectations of monetary policy, and structural inflow of funds. Sino - US trade frictions are beneficial for precious metals, and gold may continue to outperform silver. Precious metals are expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise, and attention can be paid to the support at the $4,000 level for overseas gold and the RMB 900 level for domestic gold [3][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The latest round of Sino-US trade frictions since October 2025 is expected to have a significantly weaker impact on the market than the "reciprocal tariff" shock in April 2025, and the resulting fluctuations are relatively limited. In the short term, there should not be overly high expectations for Sino-US trade talks, and the uncertainty of subsequent tariff processes remains relatively high [1]. - Due to Trump's increase in tariffs on China, market risk aversion has significantly increased. The short - term shock is expected to cause a significant decline in A - share, but subsequent domestic policy uncertainties and the possibility of Sino - US leader meetings are expected to support the stock market [3]. - Gold and silver are still strong despite increased volatility. The long - term impact of trade tariff conflicts on precious metals is positive, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the relationship between the risk of following the decline under the liquidity trap and the positive impact of the safe - haven attribute [10]. - For copper, the expected supply shortage and the expected negative impact of tariff policies will compete. In the short term, the policy will disrupt the upward rhythm, and the futures price may enter a high - level shock [15]. - For aluminum, the current core factor affecting the price is the macro - situation. After the decline caused by tariffs, there may be opportunities. For investors, it is recommended to operate cautiously, with light positions and small stop - losses. For alumina, a bearish approach is recommended, and for cast aluminum alloy, attention can be paid to the price difference with aluminum [16]. - The overall supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate futures is expected to show a weakening shock trend in the range of 68,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton [22]. - For industrial silicon, the price center will rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the price increase is limited due to inventory pressure. For polysilicon, the market risk is relatively high, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [25]. - For steel products, the current overseas macro - environment is under pressure, and the subsequent development of Sino - US trade negotiations will be the core factor affecting asset prices. Currently, the overall situation is bearish [28]. - For iron ore, the short - term fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [29]. - For coking coal and coke, the second - round price increase is postponed. In the long - term, the winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, but the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products [30]. - For ferroalloys, the contradiction between high supply and weak demand remains, and the effectiveness of cost support is challenged [31]. - For crude oil, Trump's tariff threat has triggered market concerns about the economy and oil demand, and factors such as oversupply and weak demand have further intensified the imbalance between supply and demand, causing the oil price center to shift downward and increasing volatility [33]. - For LPG, the risk of imports from the United States is relatively controllable, but the decline in external crude oil and propane prices has an impact on the market [36]. - For PTA - PX, the market is dominated by macro - politics and commodity sentiment, and the price is expected to follow the cost side to weaken, with the decline expected to be smaller than in April [38]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure. The macro - impact is expected to dominate the market next week, and the price is expected to weaken further [40]. - For methanol, in the short term, it is expected to digest macro - negative news, and the range is expected to move down to 3850 - 4150 [41]. - For PP and PE, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [44][46]. - For PVC, the supply is expected to be stable, demand is weak, exports are not as expected, and inventory pressure is increasing. The downward trend is difficult to reverse before substantial production cuts in the industry [48]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the short - term macro - disturbance increases, and the market is expected to follow the decline of crude oil on Monday. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis, and consider widening the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49]. - For fuel oil, the supply is tight, the demand is stable, and the crack spread is still strong, but the upward driving force is limited [49]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is narrowing, the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [51]. - For asphalt, due to tariff escalation, the price is expected to make up for the decline at the opening [51]. Summaries by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to the subsequent progress of Sino - US trade conflicts. After the National Day holiday, the Sino - US trade friction has become the new focus of the market. The current supply - demand policies are advancing in an orderly manner, and there may be incremental policies in the future to promote the stable recovery of prices [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Since October 2025, Sino - US trade frictions have shown a new round of escalation. This friction is expected to have a weaker impact on the market than in April 2025. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index may exist, but the RMB is expected to remain generally stable [1]. - **Stock Index**: Trump's increase in tariffs has hit market risk appetite. The short - term shock is expected to cause a decline in A - share, but subsequent factors are expected to support the stock market. It is recommended to reduce long positions and manage risks [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Due to Trump's threat to increase tariffs, the market has entered a risk - aversion mode. It is expected that treasury bond futures will open significantly higher today, but whether they can continue to rise depends on the stock market and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and consider taking profits on previous long positions [4]. - **Container Shipping**: The increase in US tariffs is negative for the market sentiment. In the short term, the futures price is likely to decline, and a relatively bearish strategy or a 10 - 12 positive spread strategy can be adopted [7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: They are still strong despite increased volatility. Long - term investment funds' positions and inventory have changed. This week, attention should be paid to US economic data and Fed officials' speeches. It is recommended to hold previous long positions cautiously and consider short - term trading opportunities [10][11]. - **Copper**: After Trump threatened to increase tariffs, copper prices fell. The supply shortage expectation and the tariff policy expectation will compete. In the short term, the price may be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to pay attention to support and pressure levels and consider option strategies [12][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, the macro - policy is the core factor affecting the price. After the decline caused by tariffs, there may be opportunities. For alumina, a bearish approach is recommended, and for cast aluminum alloy, attention can be paid to the price difference with aluminum [16]. - **Zinc**: The price is suppressed by both the macro - situation and fundamentals. In the short term, a bearish logic is adopted, and an internal - external reverse spread strategy can be considered after the export window opens [18]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: They may be affected by tariffs. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is restricted, and the demand for stainless steel is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of tariffs [19]. - **Tin**: It is expected to experience a short - term correction. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to grow. The futures price is expected to show a weakening shock trend in a certain range [22]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, and the polysilicon market is mainly focused on the establishment of the storage platform in October and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. High risks are involved, and cautious participation is recommended [25]. - **Lead**: The macro - uncertainty has increased, and both supply and demand have increased. The price is expected to remain volatile with a certain downward possibility [26]. Black Metals - **Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Sino - US trade friction has escalated, and the steel market is bearish. The subsequent development of Sino - US trade and the content of the Fourth Plenary Session need to be focused on. It is recommended to buy options to layout for increased volatility [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is high, the inventory is accumulating seasonally, the downstream iron - water demand has support, but the steel demand is weak, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing. The price is expected to first rise and then fall, remaining in a range - bound state [28][29]. - **Coking Coal, Coke**: The second - round price increase is postponed. In the long - term, the winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, but the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products. A unilateral shock approach and a coking coal 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy can be considered [30]. - **Silicon Iron, Silicon Manganese**: The contradiction between high supply and weak demand remains, and the effectiveness of cost support is challenged [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's tariff threat has caused the oil price to fall to a five - month low. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The oil price center is expected to shift downward, and volatility will increase [32][33]. - **LPG**: The decline in external crude oil and propane prices has an impact on the market. The risk of imports from the United States is relatively controllable, and the domestic chemical demand is stable [36]. - **PTA - PX**: The market is dominated by macro - politics and commodity sentiment. The price is expected to follow the cost side to weaken, with the decline expected to be smaller than in April [38]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure. The macro - impact is expected to dominate the market next week, and the price is expected to weaken further [40]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, it is expected to digest macro - negative news, and the range is expected to move down to 3850 - 4150. It is recommended to buy a small bottom position at low prices [41]. - **PP**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [44]. - **PE**: The supply - demand pattern is continuously loose, and the macro - situation may bring greater fluctuations to the futures market. If trade frictions escalate, it will put pressure on polyolefins [46]. - **PVC**: The supply is expected to be stable, demand is weak, exports are not as expected, and inventory pressure is increasing. The downward trend is difficult to reverse before substantial production cuts in the industry [48]. - **Pure Benzene, Styrene**: The short - term macro - disturbance increases, and the market is expected to follow the decline of crude oil on Monday. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis, and consider widening the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply is tight, the demand is stable, and the crack spread is still strong, but the upward driving force is limited [49]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply is narrowing, the demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [51]. - **Asphalt**: Due to tariff escalation, the price is expected to make up for the decline at the opening [51].