Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical risks, monetary policy expectations, and economic data performance, leading to uncertainty in gold's market outlook [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has led to a rapid decline in geopolitical risk premiums, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Positive signals from tariff negotiations have increased market risk appetite, causing some funds to shift from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, which has pressured gold prices [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The U.S. dollar index has seen a decline this week, yet gold prices have not benefited from this trend. Market pricing indicates a 20% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, rising to 75% in September [3]. - Despite high inflation data, the market maintains expectations for a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, but this has not provided effective support for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Economic Data Performance - The unexpected weakness in the U.S. June ADP employment data, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, highlights concerns in the job market and strengthens bets on an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The market is closely watching the upcoming June non-farm payroll data, as its results will significantly impact gold price movements [3]. Group 4: Gold Price Outlook - The recent volatility in gold prices is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with geopolitical risk easing, diverging monetary policy expectations, and mixed economic data contributing to uncertainty [4]. - In the short term, gold prices may remain volatile, with a focus on U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve policy direction. In the medium to long term, global economic uncertainty and central bank gold purchases may support gold's value as a safe-haven asset [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing upward movement against the US dollar (USD), trading around 0.6559, with market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increasing significantly [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The one-month OIS rate has dropped to 3.7%, indicating a 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month [1] - Cash rate futures suggest a 90% probability of a rate cut, with 90-day bank bill futures fully pricing in a 25 basis point reduction, bringing the expected rate down to 3.6% [1] - The bond market has already reflected these expectations, with the 3-year government bond yield falling to 3.6% [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Analysts from UOB expect the AUD/USD to maintain a range-bound movement between 0.6465 and 0.6515 in the short term, with potential for wider fluctuations between 0.6385 and 0.6555 [1] - If the AUD/USD price breaks below the 0.6465-0.6460 range, it may find support around the 0.6400 level, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.6375-0.6370 [2] - A clear break below these support levels could shift market sentiment to bearish, potentially driving the AUD/USD down to 0.6300 and further to 0.6245 and below 0.6200 [2]

Group 1: Non-Farm Data and Gold Price Dynamics - The U.S. Labor Department reported a stronger-than-expected non-farm employment data for May, with an increase of 139,000 jobs, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.2% and an average hourly wage growth of 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% [1][3] - This robust employment data led to a surge in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, causing gold futures to drop by 0.84% to $3,346.60 per ounce [1][3] - The dual impact of non-farm data on gold prices is reflected through monetary policy expectations and changes in risk sentiment among investors [1][3] Group 2: Deep Logic of Non-Farm Data Impacting Gold Prices - Healthy employment metrics directly reflect U.S. economic vitality; weak data may lead to expectations of Fed rate cuts, increasing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [4] - Wage growth exceeding expectations could heighten inflation concerns, while simultaneous economic slowdown may lead to "stagflation" worries, enhancing gold's anti-inflation properties [4] - Historical data shows that weaker-than-expected non-farm reports typically result in an average gold price increase of $7.83, while stronger-than-expected reports lead to an average decrease of $5.07 [4] Group 3: Industry Pain Points and Investment Challenges - Investors face execution delays during extreme market conditions, with traditional platforms experiencing order delays exceeding 0.5 seconds and slippage rates above 1% [5][6] - The average industry spread of $0.5 per ounce, combined with commissions and overnight interest, can erode over 10% of long-term trading profits [6] - Lack of dynamic risk control tools can lead to significant losses for investors who hold positions or increase leverage during volatile periods [7] Group 4: Solutions Offered by Gold Trading Platforms - Gold trading platforms like Jinseng Precious Metals leverage regulatory compliance and technological innovation to address challenges posed by non-farm data [8] - The platform offers millisecond-level trade execution and zero slippage experiences, ensuring rapid order execution even during extreme market fluctuations [8][9] - A smart risk control system utilizes AI algorithms to identify key support and resistance levels, providing alerts and adjusting stop-loss targets automatically [9] Group 5: Compliance and Transparency in Operations - Each trade over 0.1 lots generates a unique code for traceability, ensuring transparency and preventing opaque operations [10] - Client funds are securely stored in licensed banks in Hong Kong, with SSL encryption and multi-layer firewall technology, ensuring safety and efficiency in withdrawals [10] Group 6: Scenario-Based Services and Investor Education - The platform provides pre-release reports on non-farm data, offering strategic recommendations based on technical and fundamental analysis [11] - New investors can practice trading strategies through simulated accounts, receiving automated reports on profit and loss distributions [11] - A unique "trading psychology training system" helps investors manage stress during extreme market conditions, improving their decision-making [11] Group 7: Conclusion on Non-Farm Data Volatility - Non-farm data acts as a market "barometer," often leading to significant gold price fluctuations but also presenting structural opportunities [12] - Understanding data logic and utilizing compliant platform tools are crucial for investors to navigate volatility and achieve long-term wealth preservation and growth [12]

尽管美国5月零售销售数据疲软、消费者支出显示出谨慎迹象，但美元兑主要货币在周二逆势上涨，美 元指数收于98.8点，涨幅达0.64%。DLS外汇认为这表明市场的主要驱动因素，已经从经济基本面转向 了地缘政治风险和货币政策预期的联合作用。 中东局势再度升温。以色列持续对伊朗实施军事打击，地缘紧张情绪急剧上升，使得全球风险情绪恶 化。在这种背景下，美元重新获得避险属性。虽然近年来美元的避险特性受到美国本身政策不确定性的 削弱，但在面对突发外部风险时，美元依然是全球资金的首选避风港。 而日元表现则更具代表性。日本央行如预期维持利率不变，同时表示将放缓资产负债表缩减步伐。这一 鸽派信号叠加美元走强，使得美元兑日元上涨0.4%，至145.32日元。尽管此前日本市场一度因行长植田 和男的发言短暂推动日元升值，但整体偏鸽的基调让日元回吐涨幅。 更值得注意的是，澳元兑美元下跌0.8%，至0.6474美元。澳元作为典型的风险情绪指标，其下跌进一步 印证了全球投资者避险偏好的增强。同时，在大宗商品市场波动加剧、亚太地区需求不振的背景下，澳 元走势愈发脆弱。 展望后市，市场将密切关注本周三的美联储政策会议结果。若点阵图和鲍威尔讲话释 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a narrow trading range against the US dollar (USD), reflecting underlying economic weakness, monetary policy expectations, and external risk factors [1][3]. Economic Fundamentals - Australia's Q1 GDP growth was only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, a significant slowdown from 0.6% in Q4 of the previous year, with year-on-year growth dropping to 1.3% [3]. - Per capita GDP has declined for five consecutive quarters, indicating a lack of internal growth momentum [3]. - Household consumption has seen slight growth due to essential spending, but public sector spending has reached a new high since 2017, highlighting the narrowing fiscal policy space [3]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled strong easing measures, discussing a potential 50 basis point rate cut and indicating a quick response to the impacts of US tariff policies [3]. External Risks - Uncertainty surrounding US trade policies poses a significant risk, as Australia relies heavily on exports, which account for 25% of its GDP [3]. - The volatility of commodity export prices to the US has increased by 40% since the beginning of the year due to tariff disputes [3]. - Hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve regarding tariff policies could lead to delayed rate cuts or even a resumption of rate hikes, indirectly pressuring the AUD [3]. Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD pair is in a critical consolidation phase, forming a converging triangle pattern between 0.6450 and 0.6500 [4]. - The RSI indicator shows a bullish divergence in the oversold region, while the MACD momentum remains below the zero line, indicating a delicate balance between bulls and bears [4]. - The psychological level of 0.6500 is a battleground, with three recent tests resulting in pullbacks, while strong buying interest at 0.6400 provides short-term support [4]. Trading Strategy - The market is at a critical point for directional choice, with short-term traders advised to watch for breakout signals [4]. - A drop below 0.6400 could open up further downside towards 0.6300, while a sustained move above 0.6500 could target the yearly high of 0.6540 [4]. - Mid-term investors should be cautious of policy expectation adjustments, considering short positions above 0.6500 with a stop loss at 0.6600 and a target at 0.6350 [4]. Future Outlook - The RBA's meeting minutes on June 18 and the US non-farm payroll data on June 21 will be critical catalysts for the AUD [5]. - A clearer indication of rate cuts from the RBA or stronger-than-expected US employment data could significantly increase downward pressure on the AUD [5]. - Conversely, if iron ore prices exceed $120 per ton, it may provide temporary support for the AUD [5]. - The current predicament of the AUD is a result of weak economic fundamentals, expectations of policy easing, and external uncertainties, with a true breakout requiring a convergence of internal and external momentum [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that silver prices have surged due to safe-haven demand, reaching a new high since October 2012, with a year-to-date increase of over 20% as of June 5 [1][2] - Analysts believe that the improvement in macroeconomic indicators, such as the rise in China's manufacturing PMI and new orders, will directly boost silver demand as the economy recovers [2][3] - Silver is viewed as a more elastic alternative to gold, especially in the context of easing global trade tensions, making it an attractive investment opportunity [2] Group 2 - Various investment channels for silver are available, including physical silver, silver futures, silver ETFs, and silver mining stocks, allowing investors to choose based on their risk preferences and investment goals [3] - Physical silver, such as bars and coins, is suitable for long-term holding, but investors should be aware of limited repurchase channels and storage costs [3] - Financial derivatives like silver futures offer high leverage and capital efficiency, but they also come with significant risks, while silver ETFs provide convenience and lower fees but may have tracking errors and overall market risks [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economic data released yesterday was weaker than expected, leading to an increased market expectation for the Fed's subsequent marginally loose monetary policy, and the silver price showed strength [1]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in May was 48.5, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 48.7, remaining below the boom - bust line. The ISM import index was only 39.9, significantly lower than 47.1 in April. The month - on - month value of US construction spending in April was - 0.4%, significantly lower than the expected 0.3%. Meanwhile, the Fed's monetary policy stance was dovish [2]. - Given the dovish stance of the Fed's monetary policy, the silver price was strong. The expansion of the US fiscal deficit provided medium - term support for the gold price. It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 777 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8342 - 8733 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Yield Data - Shanghai gold rose 0.70% to 771.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.07% to 8218.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.47% to 3413.20 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.54% to 34.88 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.46%, and the US dollar index was 98.59 [1]. - Various precious metals and related financial product data, such as the closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of Au(T + D), London gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, etc., are presented in the report, along with their daily changes and percentage changes [3]. 3.2 Market Data Details - For gold, in COMEX, the closing price of the active contract was 3406.40 dollars/ounce (up 2.82% from the previous period), the trading volume decreased by 3.75% to 17.59 million lots, and the position decreased by 2.34% to 43.75 million lots. In SHFE, the closing price of the active contract was 771.80 yuan/gram (up 0.98%), the trading volume decreased by 8.19% to 40.73 million lots, and the position decreased by 3.89% to 40.91 million lots [7]. - For silver, in COMEX, the closing price of the active contract was 34.93 dollars/ounce (up 5.61% from the previous period), the position increased by 4.32% to 14.76 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.12% to 15409 tons. In SHFE, the closing price of the active contract was 8218.00 yuan/kilogram (down 0.07%), the trading volume decreased by 1.12% to 84.79 million lots, and the position decreased by 2.41% to 87.67 million lots [7]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - The report provides data on the internal - external price spreads of gold and silver, including the spreads between SHFE and COMEX, and between SGE and LBMA for both gold and silver, as well as the calculation parameters such as exchange rates and unit conversion coefficients [53].