1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bearish, with an expected decline of 5 - 15% in the short, medium, and long - term [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve is a special product of special times. To solve serious problems of the government or cope with extreme economic pressure, the Fed will sacrifice relatively unimportant parts of monetary policy (usually inflation and the value of the domestic currency) to achieve relatively low interest rates and economic growth [4][75]. - It is expected that the Fed will use inflation to exchange for economic growth again. The US dollar index will trend downwards due to long - term low real interest rates and high inflation. The market underestimates the degree of the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [3][5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fed Politicalization 3.1.1 Fed Politicalization during World War II - To finance the war, the US government needed to issue a large amount of national debt and have huge fiscal expenditures, which would lead to high interest rates and high inflation. The Fed implemented the yield curve control (YCC) policy, setting the 10 - year interest rate cap at 2.5% and the short - term Treasury bill rate at 0.375% [14][17]. - The YCC policy stabilized the interest rate level and reduced the government's financing cost, but it could not solve the inflation problem. The US also adopted production control, price and wage control, increased marginal tax rates, and export and foreign exchange controls, but inflation still rose significantly [18]. - The high inflation was mainly caused by the government's fiscal deficit. The Fed printed money to fill the gap. The US was in a wartime economic state of high deficit, high inflation, high money growth, and low unemployment. The Fed gave up inflation management to serve government financing [25][32]. - After the war, the Fed and the Treasury had a conflict over interest rate control. In 1951, the Fed won, and the Treasury absorbed investors' losses by replacing long - term US bonds [33]. 3.1.2 Fed Politicalization during the Stagflation Period in the 1970s - Nixon pressured Fed Chairman Burns to prioritize the economy over inflation. Burns cut interest rates, which helped Nixon's re - election but led to rising inflation. Later, the Fed raised interest rates, but inflation was not well - controlled due to the loss of credibility [34][37]. - Carter also pressured the Fed to maintain low interest rates to reduce unemployment. The Fed's monetary policy remained loose, and the M1 growth rate was very high, resulting in long - term high inflation [39]. - The Fed's politicalization in the 1970s led to a large - scale stagflation. The US dollar weakened significantly, financial assets performed poorly, and commodities, especially precious metals, outperformed stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. This also promoted the replacement of Keynesianism with monetarism and the rise of central bank independence [49]. 3.1.3 Post - COVID - 19 Fed Politicalization Trend - The COVID - 19 pandemic led to a collapse of the global economic growth framework. The US government's large - scale fiscal stimulus increased government debt and inflation. The Fed raised interest rates, increasing the government's debt interest payments and making the US debt problem more prominent [51]. - The Trump administration's tariff policy increased inflation pressure. The Fed is expected to prioritize maintaining low interest rates, tolerate inflation, and may introduce yield curve control to reduce the interest rate center and relieve the US debt pressure [54][62]. - The current US economic situation has differences and similarities with the previous two Fed politicalization periods. The Fed's politicalization degree is expected to increase gradually, and the introduction of yield curve control will be a sign of accelerated politicalization [63]. 3.2 Summary - The Fed's politicalization is a special response to special economic situations. It sacrifices inflation and the value of the domestic currency for low interest rates and economic growth. The process is painful for the public, and the Fed's reputation is at risk [4][75]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Due to the expected long - term low real interest rates and high inflation, the US dollar index will trend downwards. It is recommended to hold precious metals and non - ferrous commodities. The market underestimates the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [5][76].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index leading the decline [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.45 trillion, a decrease of 456.7 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 4,300 stocks in the market saw declines, indicating a bearish sentiment [1] Sector Performance - Chip stocks showed resilience with notable gains, particularly with Zhichun Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The film and television sector was active, with Jinyi Film and Television also reaching the daily limit [1] - Conversely, brokerage stocks faced downward pressure, with Guosheng Jin控 dropping over 5% [1] - The commercial aerospace sector collectively weakened, with multiple stocks like Aileda declining over 5% [1] Index Performance - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.63%, while the ChiNext Index remained unchanged [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with a total market turnover exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan, while sectors such as CPO, semiconductors, and copper cable high-speed connections saw significant declines [1] - The banking, precious metals, PEEK materials, electricity, and industrial mother machine sectors showed gains [1] - The CSI A500 index fell by 1.1%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.7%, the ChiNext index dropped by 2.9%, and the STAR Market 50 index declined by 2.1% [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index experienced a slight decrease of 0.2% [1] Index Performance - The CSI 300 index, which tracks 300 large and liquid stocks, recorded a decline of 0.7% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 times and a valuation percentile of 64.4% since its inception in 2005 [2] - The CSI A500 index, covering 500 securities from various industries, fell by 1.1% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 times and a valuation percentile of 71.4% since its inception in 2004 [2] - The ChiNext index, consisting of 100 large and liquid stocks, saw a decline of 2.9% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 41.9 times and a valuation percentile of 37.5% since its inception in 2010 [2] - The STAR Market 50 index, which includes 50 large and liquid stocks, decreased by 2.1% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 186.8 times and a valuation percentile of 99.9% since its inception in 2020 [2] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, tracking 50 large and active stocks listed in Hong Kong, fell by 0.2% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 10.4 times and a valuation percentile of 63.2% since its inception in 2002 [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79% at 3844.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.21% at 12545.82 points, and the ChiNext Index down 2.9% at 2870.72 points [2][3] - Nearly 4500 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell, while only 858 stocks saw an increase [2] Sector Performance - The consumer electronics, computing power, military industry, and information technology sectors led the declines, while the precious metals sector continued to rise [2] - Precious metals increased by 2.05%, with banking and electric power stocks also showing positive performance [4] Trading Volume - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan for the 21st consecutive trading day [8] Notable Stocks - Guizhou Moutai's stock price rose over 2%, reaching 1500 yuan per share, marking a new high since May [12] - The innovative drug concept stocks saw significant gains, with companies like BeiGene and Amgen rising over 10% [12] International Market Influence - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 1%, with Huahong Semiconductor leading the decline among component stocks [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of the domestic financial market, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3875.53, reflecting a 0.46% increase, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.05% to 12828.95 [4] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August stands at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing Business Activity Index is at 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points [6] - The report identifies key industry developments, including advancements in consumer-grade 3D printing technology and the operational launch of China's largest molten salt thermal storage project [8] Industry Developments - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is expanding, with companies like Zhongzhou Special Materials and Jinchengzi leading the way [8] - A significant breakthrough in technology has been achieved with the launch of the largest molten salt thermal storage project in China, involving companies such as Dongfang Electric Heating and Aerospace Chenguang [8] - The satellite communication industry is experiencing a policy-driven commercialization opportunity, with key players including China Satellite Communications and Heertai [8] Company Focus - Jianghe Group reported a non-recurring net profit of 334 million yuan for H1, marking a 21.4% increase, with overseas orders rising by 61% to 5.2 billion yuan, primarily from projects in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [10] - Magpow Technology is actively participating in the innovative design and collaborative construction of data center hardware systems based on NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture [10] - Jiyuan Technology has invested 500 million yuan to acquire a stake in Wuhan Endatong Technology, resulting in a 13.59% ownership [10] Market Review and Outlook - On September 1, the total trading volume in the two markets reached 27.5 billion yuan, with 3059 stocks rising and 1964 falling, indicating a net outflow of 766.29 billion yuan [12] - The market showed a slight upward trend, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, suggesting a rotation of funds towards mid and small-cap stocks [12] - Key sectors attracting capital inflow include innovative pharmaceuticals and precious metals, while sectors like insurance, securities, and banking faced declines [12] - The report anticipates further upward movement in the Shanghai Composite Index, with a potential breakthrough above the 3920-point resistance level [13]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3429.15, with a change of 21.50 [1] - London Silver latest price is 38.80, with a change of -0.14 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1345.00, with a change of 6.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1102.00, with a change of 12.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 64.01, with a change of -0.59 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 9883.50, with a change of 85.50 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 97.85, with a change of -0.02 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.17, with a change of 0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.35, with a change of 0.00 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 147.05, with a change of 0.11 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.82, with a change of 0.01 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 16118.83, with a change of 32.27 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 1196.00, with a change of 17.48 [1] - Gold ETF持仓 latest is 977.68, with a change of 9.74 [1] - Silver ETF持仓 latest is 15310.00, with a change of -22.59 [1] - SGE Silver inventory change not provided, latest not provided [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction latest is 1, change is 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction latest is 2, change is 1.00 [1] Group 3: Data Source - The above chart data sources are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [6]

Market Performance - A-shares continued strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3879.05 points during the session, closing at 3862.65 points, up 0.12% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.11% and 0.55%, respectively [1] Gold Market - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with international gold prices reaching new highs; COMEX gold futures peaked at $3552 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 35% [4][5] - London spot gold prices also rose, reaching $3486.16 per ounce, just shy of the historical high of $3500 from April 22 [5] - Domestic gold futures in China saw a rise of over 2%, hitting a new high of 802 yuan per gram [5] - Major stocks in the gold sector, such as Western Gold and Xiaocheng Technology, saw substantial increases, with Western Gold hitting the daily limit [5][6] AI Computing Sector - The AI computing sector exhibited mixed performance; stocks like Xuanji Information and Liyang Chip reached daily limits, while Cambrian Technology experienced a decline of nearly 3% [3][9] - Cambrian Technology's stock fluctuated significantly, dropping over 8% at one point but stabilizing to a decrease of 2.98% by midday [11] - Reports indicated that Alibaba's procurement rumors regarding Cambrian Technology were unfounded, but the company continues to advance its AI chip development [13] Alibaba's Market Activity - Alibaba's stock surged over 16% in Hong Kong, with a market capitalization increase of approximately 400 billion HKD, reaching a total market value of 2.59 trillion HKD [14] - The company reported a revenue of 247.65 billion yuan for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, with a net profit of 43.12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 76% [16] - Alibaba's investment in AI and cloud infrastructure reached 38.6 billion yuan, a 220% increase year-on-year, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its AI capabilities [16] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector saw significant activity, with stocks like MicroPort Medical rising over 14% and achieving a year-to-date increase of over 109% [17] - The approval of 43 innovative drugs in the first half of the year, a 59% increase year-on-year, highlights the growing focus on drug development in China [17] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 101%, reflecting strong investor interest in the pharmaceutical sector [17]

【导读】贵金属、创新药引爆行情，迈威生物 20cm 封板 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！ 9 月的第一个交易日，来一起关注上午的市场行情和最新资讯。 9 月 1 日上午， A 股市场反复震荡。截至午间收盘，上证指数涨 0.12% ，深证成指涨 0.11% ，创业板指涨 0.55% 。 | www.bounce 3862.65 | . | was were works 2906.03 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 +0.12% | 深证成指 +0.11% | 创业板指 +0.55% | 全市场半日成交额为 1.85 万亿元，较上日略有缩量，全市场超 3100 只个股上涨。 成交额方面，寒武纪成交额继续登顶，半日成交额达 186 亿元；新易盛、中际旭创、东方财 富等近期热门股成交额均超过 100 亿元。 | 序号 代码 | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = | 688256 寒武纪-U 1447.98 -44.51 | | -2.98% | 186.07亿 | | വ | 300502 新易盛 ...

Macroeconomic Dynamics - In July, the bond market issued a total of 77,536.2 billion yuan in various bonds, including 12,226.5 billion yuan in government bonds and 13,496.8 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds [1] - As of the end of July, the bond market's custody balance reached 190.4 trillion yuan, with 168.4 trillion yuan in the interbank market and 22.0 trillion yuan in the exchange market [1] State-Owned Enterprises - From January to July, the total operating revenue of state-owned enterprises remained flat year-on-year at 473,110.9 billion yuan, while total profit decreased by 3.3% to 24,786.4 billion yuan [2] - The tax payable by state-owned enterprises for the same period was 34,694.6 billion yuan, down 0.4% year-on-year [2] - The asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises increased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 65.1% as of the end of July [2] Foreign Exchange Market - In July, China's foreign exchange market had a total transaction volume of 28.28 trillion yuan (approximately 3.96 trillion USD), with the interbank market accounting for 24.22 trillion yuan [3] - From January to July, the cumulative transaction volume in the foreign exchange market reached 179.15 trillion yuan (approximately 24.96 trillion USD) [3] Stock Market - As of July 31, the total market capitalization of listed companies in the domestic stock market approached 95 trillion yuan, marking the highest point in nearly three years [4] - There were 5,427 listed companies, with 137 companies having a market capitalization of over 1,000 billion yuan [4] - In July, eight new companies were listed, raising a total of 24.164 billion yuan, while ten companies were delisted [4] Financial Institutions - Agricultural Bank reported a net profit of 139.943 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [5] - Postal Savings Bank achieved a net profit of 49.228 billion yuan in the first half of the year, up 0.85% year-on-year [6] Company Dynamics - China National Petroleum Corporation appointed Zhou Xinhai as the new General Manager and Deputy Secretary of the Party Leadership Group [9] - Kweichow Moutai completed a share buyback of 3.9276 million shares, accounting for 0.3127% of its total share capital, with a total buyback amount of 6 billion yuan [10] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation's stock will be delisted on September 5, 2025, with shares converted at a ratio of 1:0.1339 to China Shipbuilding's A-shares [14] - Anta Sports and Bosideng both denied rumors regarding potential acquisitions of Canada Goose Holdings Inc. [15]

Core Viewpoint - The three major indices opened lower on August 28, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.58% [1] Sector Performance - Active sectors at the opening included gas, precious metals, satellite internet, and 6G concepts [1] - Declining sectors at the opening included energy metals, insurance, liquid cooling, and rare earth permanent magnet concepts [1]