美国、德国就关税问题达成协议的最后期限为7月9日，但企业已经在为更复杂的双边关系及由此带来的 成本做准备。一些企业计划将生产转移至大西洋彼岸，而像梅赛德斯-奔驰集团这样的汽车制造商则已 与美国官员进行非正式会谈，这在一定程度上削弱了由欧盟方面主导的官方谈判。 德国经济部在一份声明中表示："未来的进展仍存在高度不确定性。制造业在夏季是否能继续保持增长 势头，将在很大程度上取决于贸易和地缘政治环境的演变。"进一步凸显德国经济所面临的不稳定形势 的是，上周五公布的一项数据显示，5月工厂订单环比下降1.4%，远超预期，也是四个月来首次下降。 Joachim Nagel周一表示："德国经济在短期内面临重大逆风。"不过他也补充道："展望未来，仍有理由 保持谨慎的乐观态度。"Joachim Nagel表示，考虑到今年年初超预期的0.4%经济增长，"全年实现小幅增 长是可能的"，"但即便如此，这也意味着德国将连续三年陷入微弱增长的状态"。 智通财经APP获悉，德国5月工业产出意外增长，表明企业在美国可能大幅提高关税之前加紧生产以抢 占出口先机。周一公布的数据显示，德国5月季调后工业产出环比增长1.2%，好于经济学家预期的环比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is expected to face downward price risks in the next 6-12 months due to an anticipated increase in supply and potential oversupply conditions [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to exacerbate supply surplus later this year, putting pressure on global oil prices [1] - The increase in oil production is believed to find buyers in the short term, as indicated by Saudi Arabia's decision to raise oil prices [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite the recent acceleration in production by OPEC, the global oil market is nearing a state of oversupply as winter approaches [1] - UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that while the oil market is currently tight, rising risks such as ongoing trade tensions could lead to a less tight market in the future, impacting prices negatively [1]

July 4, 2025 02:03 AM GMT 亚洲经济研究 | Asia Pacific M Idea 观点：为何人民币不会重 演1985-95年日元的轨迹 鉴于持续的通缩压力以及保持宽松货币政策的需要，我们预 计人民币不会大幅升值。追求货币升值本身会加剧通缩，可 能不足以确保达成贸易协议，并且不会带来可持续的再平 衡。 要点 在本报告中，我们吸取了1985年之后日元升值的经验，并强调了我们认为人民币 不太可能重演日元升值路线的原因。 This translated report is made available for convenience only and is based on the original research report published in English. In the event of any discrepancy between the translation and the original research report, the content in the original research report will prevail. The original ...

据路透社3日报道，一名消息人士透露，美国政府当天向美国通用电气航空航天公司表示，后者可以重 启向中国商飞公司供应喷气发动机。报道称，这是美中两国贸易紧张局势缓和的又一个迹象。报道援引 另一名消息人士的话称，至少还有另外一家航空航天公司在中国的执照暂停状态也在周四（3日）被解 除，但该消息人士拒绝透露是哪家公司。（环球网） ...

特朗普政府正准备向贸易伙伴发送单边关税税率通知，标志着其贸易政策进入新的强硬阶段。这一举措 将在7月9日谈判截止期限前实施，对尚未达成协议的国家构成直接压力。 7月3日，据环球时报报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧盟目标是在7月9日前达成协议。在关税问 题上"准备好与美国达成一项原则性协议"。但若谈判失败，欧盟将坚决采取反制措施以保护欧洲经济。 同日据媒体报道，美国总统特朗普表示，政府可能最早从周五开始向贸易伙伴发送信函，在7月9日谈判 截止期限前单方面设定关税税率。特朗普向记者表示： 我们可能会发出一些信函，可能从明天开始，也许每天向各个国家发送10封，告诉他们与美 国做生意需要支付多少费用。 特朗普还表示，相比继续谈判，发送信函"容易得多"，暗示他更倾向于单方面设定关税税率。美国财政 部长贝森特在电视采访中表示，是否延长截止期限将由特朗普最终决定： 我们会按照特朗普的意愿行事，他将决定对方是否在真诚谈判。 美国总统4月2日首次宣布提高所谓的"对等"关税，但暂停执行90天以给各国谈判时间，期间实施10%的 税率。 美国目前已与英国和越南宣布达成协议。此前华尔街见闻报道，越南协议已于周三公布，对越南出口美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has recently retreated from a high of 1.1800, with the market focusing on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar gained momentum amid rising yields, contributing to the Euro's decline after a nine-day increase [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has renewed demand for risk assets, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [4] - Trade tensions remain a focal point as the deadline for U.S. tariff suspensions approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the EU and the UK regarding Brexit [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June but raised inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, with further easing contingent on a significant decline in external demand [6] Group 3: Market Positioning - As of June 24, speculative net long positions in the Euro rose to over 111.1K contracts, the highest level since January 2024, while commercial traders' net short positions increased to 164.3K contracts, the peak since December 2023 [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance is at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [8] - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1410, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 and the May low of 1.1064 [8] - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the RSI above 74 indicating overbought conditions but also potential for further gains [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the absence of new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks, the Euro's upward trend is expected to resume, supported by reduced risk aversion and expectations of Fed easing [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD exchange rate has shown significant movement, with the Euro reaching a new high of 1.1830 before a slight decline, influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for vigilance regarding inflation, as the Euro ended an eight-day rally [3]. - The U.S. dollar rebounded from previous lows following the Senate's approval of President Trump's comprehensive tax reform, which affected the Euro's upward momentum [3]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions have eased, contributing to a stronger interest in risk assets, thereby supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [5]. - Investors remain cautious about potential changes in Washington's trade stance, especially with the U.S. tariff suspension deadline approaching on July 9 [6]. Central Bank Policies - The divergence in policies between the ECB and the Federal Reserve continues, with the Fed maintaining interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% while adjusting inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [7][8]. - The ECB recently lowered its deposit rate to 2.00%, with Lagarde indicating that further easing would depend on a significant deterioration in external demand [8]. Market Sentiment - Speculators have increased their net long positions in the Euro, reaching the highest level since January 2024, while commercial participants have raised their net short positions [9]. - The total open interest in Euro contracts has also risen to approximately 762.6K, marking a two-week high [9]. Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels are identified at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [10]. - Initial support is noted at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1403, followed by lower support levels [10]. Outlook - The Euro's upward trend is expected to continue unless geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks occur, driven by reduced risk aversion and growing confidence in potential Fed policy easing [12].

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 尽管全球贸易紧张局势持续且经济走弱，但加拿大主要股市基准指数上半年表现却优于美国同行，这得益于创纪录的黄金涨势。 截至6月30日，加拿大标普/TSX综合指数年内上涨8.6%，高于同期标普500指数5.5%的涨幅。以美元计算，多伦多指数上涨15%，与其他黄金权重高的全球 指数涨幅相当。 "毫无疑问，这是由黄金推动的。" 蒙特利尔银行资产管理公司（BMO Asset Management Inc.）首席投资官萨迪克·阿达蒂亚（Sadiq Adatia）表示。 随着投资者涌入黄金和贵金属矿业股，以对冲美国总统特朗普关税威胁及中东地缘政治紧张与冲突带来的部分风险，这一热潮令加拿大股市指标受益。"你 需要能为投资组合'防弹'的资产，而黄金是最好的选择。"阿达蒂亚称。 加拿大基准股指表现优越 彭博情报策略师吉莉安·沃尔夫（Gillian Wolff）在6月11日的报告中写道，标普/TSX成分股的收入预测自4月以来"显著"下滑，该指数对"挣扎中的能源板 块"的大量敞口正不成比例地拖累整体预测。 不过，麦肯齐投资公司（Mackenzie Investments）股票首 ...

Astris Advisory Japan KK策略师指出，在过去五年中，每年7月日元均录得涨幅；过去六个月，由于全 球贸易摩擦以及特朗普呼吁美联储降息等因素导致美元承压，日元升值了9%。自2020年以来，日元每 年7月都上涨，平均兑美元上涨2.8%，成为同期表现最强劲的月份。日本央行的政策变化、8月暑假前 的仓位调整以及出口商将海外收入兑换成日元用于支付股息等多种因素共同推升日元。日元强势的主要 原因可能是美元的全面滑坡。在流动性下降且很多基金经理休假的情况下，减少风险敞口是合理的做 法。没有理由认为今年7月会有所不同，市场可能继续看到日元的强势表现。 高盛：将美联储下次降息预测提前至9月 凯投宏观：贸易紧张局势是亚洲经济体的主要风险 Lombard Odier：预计美元未来12个月持续走软 高盛分析师表示，将美联储下次降息的时间预测从12月提前到9月，反映出对当前经济状况和未来通胀 趋势的新评估。初步证据显示，关税对美国通胀的影响似乎比之前预计的小，而其他导致通胀下降的因 素则更为显著；美联储官员可能也持有相似观点，即关税对物价水平的影响是一次性的。美国人找工作 变得越来越困难，季节性因素以及移民政策的变 ...

金十数据7月1日讯，凯投宏观经济学家在一份报告中表示，特朗普的关税和贸易紧张局势仍然是亚洲的 主要风险。他们补充说，越南将是最脆弱的，因为它最依赖美国的最终需求。他们预计，今年亚洲大部 分地区的GDP增长将略有放缓。在经济增长乏力、通胀率较低的情况下，未来几个月亚洲大部分地区可 能会进一步降息。 特朗普关税、贸易紧张局势对亚洲的主要风险 ...