转债估值
Search documents
转债周度跟踪 20251212:机构普遍欠配,转债韧性较强-20251213
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-13 14:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity and convertible bond markets remained in a volatile trend. Micro - cap stocks in major stock indices declined significantly, but the convertible bond market showed relative insensitivity. The negative impact of micro - cap stock declines on convertible bonds was less than that in late August and late November. The valuation of convertible bonds fluctuated in tandem with the market. The 100 - yuan premium rate fluctuated around 30%. Structurally, the valuation of the equity - biased area was better than that of the debt - biased area. Despite multiple negative factors, the convertible bond market showed unexpected resilience, likely due to the under - allocation pressure of institutional investors and the consistent expectation of the "Spring Rally" next year. The convertible bond market is expected to have upside potential [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Outlook - The equity and convertible bond markets continued to fluctuate. Micro - cap stocks fell sharply, but convertible bonds were less affected. The convertible bond valuation oscillated, with the 100 - yuan premium rate around 30%. The equity - biased area's valuation was better, and the convertible bond market showed resilience, with potential upside due to institutional under - allocation and "Spring Rally" expectations [4][5]. 2. Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the underlying stocks declined slightly, and the convertible bond market was roughly flat with volatile valuations. After excluding outliers, the market - wide convertible bond 100 - yuan premium rate was 29.8%, down 0.1% week - on - week, and at the 99.1% percentile since 2017. The equity - biased area's valuation was better than the debt - biased area. The high - parity area's valuation showed resilience. The debt - biased area's valuation was weak but showed structural differentiation. The median convertible bond price was 130.90 yuan, down 0.71 yuan, and the yield to maturity was - 6.56%, unchanged, at the 97.30% and 1.40% percentiles since 2017 respectively [4][6][13]. 3. Clause Tracking 3.1 Redemption - This week, Hugong and Yingbo Convertible Bonds announced redemptions, while Bojun Convertible Bond announced no redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 67%. There are currently 20 convertible bonds that have issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements but have not delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 4.9 billion yuan. There are 22 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 6 are expected to meet redemption conditions next week, 10 are expected to issue potential redemption announcements, and 9 are expected to enter the forced - redemption counting period within the next month [4][18][20]. 3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Bengang, Jinlangzhuan 02, and Hongchuan Convertible Bonds proposed downward revisions. As of now, 107 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 20 cannot be revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but has not announced, 29 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 5 have issued board proposals for downward revision but have not gone to the shareholders' meeting [4][23]. 3.3 Put Option - This week, Wanqing Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement, and Huahai Convertible Bond has triggered the put - option clause but has not announced. As of now, 4 convertible bonds are accumulating put - option trigger days, 1 of which proposed a downward revision, and 3 are in the non - downward - revision period [4][25]. 4. Primary Issuance - This week, Aohong, Shenyu, and Tianzhun Convertible Bonds were issued, and Dingjie Convertible Bond will be issued next week. As of now, Puxian, Aohong, Shenyu, and Tianzhun Convertible Bonds have been issued but not listed. There are 5 convertible bonds at the registration - approved stage, with a to - be - issued scale of 5.1 billion yuan, and 9 at the listing - committee - approved stage, with a to - be - issued scale of 10 billion yuan [4][27].
转债周度跟踪:机构普遍欠配,转债韧性较强-20251213
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-13 13:19
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market showed unexpected resilience despite large fluctuations in the equity market towards the end of the year, which may be related to the significant under - allocation pressure of institutional investors such as insurance, annuity, and public funds. With a consistent expectation of the "Spring Rally" next year, there is still room for a bullish view on the convertible bond market [4][5]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - The equity and convertible bond markets remained in a volatile trend this week. Micro - cap stocks in major stock indices declined significantly, but the convertible bond market was relatively insensitive. The negative impact of micro - cap stock declines on convertible bonds was less than that in late August and late November. - Convertible bond valuations fluctuated in tandem with the market. The 100 - yuan premium rate fluctuated around 30%. Structurally, the valuation of the equity - biased area was better than that of the bond - biased area. Under multiple negative factors such as high valuations, capital outflows, and adjustments in pure bonds, the valuation of the bond - biased area weakened compared with the previous period. In the context of weak performance of the underlying stocks, the valuation of the equity - biased area rose inversely, showing a certain degree of resilience [4][5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the underlying stocks declined slightly, and the convertible bond market was roughly flat, with valuations showing volatility. After excluding abnormal points, the 100 - yuan premium rate of the entire market's convertible bonds was 29.8%, a weekly decline of 0.1%, and the latest quantile level was at the 99.1% percentile since 2017. - The valuation of the equity - biased area was still better than that of the bond - biased area. With weak performance of the underlying stocks, the high - parity area's valuation provided reverse support and showed resilience. The valuation of the bond - biased area remained weak, but there were structural differences. The valuation of the 80 - 100 yuan parity area, which had performed weakly previously, stabilized, while the valuation of the area below 80 yuan remained weak. - The median price and yield to maturity of convertible bonds were reported at 130.90 yuan and - 6.56% respectively, a change of - 0.71 yuan and + 0.00% compared with last week. The current quantile levels were at the 97.30 and 1.40 percentiles since 2017 [4][6][11]. 3.3 Clause Tracking - **Redemption**: This week, Hugong and Yingbo Convertible Bonds announced redemptions, while Bojun Convertible Bond announced no redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 67%. Currently, there are 20 convertible bonds that have issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements but have not yet delisted. The potential conversion or maturity balance of forced - redemption and maturity convertible bonds among the non - delisted bonds is 4.9 billion yuan. There are currently 22 convertible bonds in the redemption process. Six are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 10 are expected to issue announcements indicating that they are likely to trigger redemption. In addition, 9 convertible bonds are expected to enter the forced - redemption counting period within the next month [4][18][20]. - **Downward Revision**: This week, Bengang, Jinlangzhuan 02, and Hongchuan Convertible Bonds proposed downward revisions. As of now, 107 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 20 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 29 are accumulating days for downward revision, and 5 have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not yet gone to the shareholders' meeting [4][24]. - **Put Option**: This week, Wanqing Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement, and Huahai Convertible Bond has triggered the put - option clause but has not yet issued an announcement. As of now, 4 convertible bonds are accumulating days to trigger the put option, among which 1 has proposed a downward revision and 3 are in the non - downward - revision interval [4][26]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - This week, Aohong, Shenyu, and Tianzhun Convertible Bonds were issued, and Dingjie Convertible Bond will be issued next week. As of now, Pulan, Aohong, Shenyu, and Tianzhun Convertible Bonds have been issued but are not yet listed. - As of now, there are 5 convertible bonds at the approval - for - registration stage, with a total issuance scale of 5.1 billion yuan; and 9 convertible bonds at the stage of passing the listing - committee review, with a total issuance scale of 10 billion yuan [4][28].
转债周度跟踪:转债价格中位数稳定在130元以上-20251206
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-06 15:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity and convertible bond markets were weak first and then strong. Due to the relatively weak performance of the underlying stocks, the valuation in the high - parity area rose against the trend to support the convertible bond price, and the median convertible bond price remained stable above 130 yuan. The convertible bonds showed strong resistance to decline during the equity market's volatile period, and the good supply - demand pattern still strongly supported the valuation. The convertible bond market still has overall opportunities, but in terms of structure, risks such as the decay of the time value of short - duration convertible bonds and unexpected forced redemptions should be guarded against [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - The equity and convertible bond markets were weak first and then strong this week. The high - parity area valuation supported the convertible bond price. The convertible bonds had strong anti - decline ability, and the supply - demand pattern supported the valuation. Pay attention to the decline in the valuation of debt - oriented convertible bonds and the potential impact of forced redemptions. The equity market outlook is optimistic, but risks in convertible bonds need to be guarded against [1][5] 2. Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the underlying stocks performed weakly, while the convertible bond valuation rebounded against the trend, with the 100 - yuan premium rate rising by 0.5% week - on - week to 29.9%. The current quantile level is at the 99.4% percentile since 2017. The valuation performance in the equity - oriented area was better than that in the debt - oriented area. The conversion premium rate in the 130 - 140 yuan parity range increased significantly, and that in the 100 - 120 yuan parity range also increased slightly. In the debt - oriented area, the conversion premium rate and the bottom - support premium rate in the 80 - 100 yuan parity range mainly declined. The median convertible bond price and the yield to maturity were reported at 131.61 yuan and - 6.56% respectively, with changes of + 0.51 yuan and - 0.01% from last week. Their current quantile levels are at the 98.10 and 1.30 percentiles since 2017 [4][6][10] 3. Terms Tracking 3.1 Redemption - This week, Nenghui, Xinhua, and Limin Convertible Bonds announced redemptions, and 3 convertible bonds announced non - redemptions, with a forced - redemption rate of 50%. Currently, there are 19 convertible bonds that have issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements but have not delisted. The potential conversion or maturity balance of these convertible bonds is 5.2 billion yuan. There are currently 31 convertible bonds in the redemption process. Next week, 7 are expected to meet the redemption conditions, and 9 are expected to issue announcements of potential redemption triggers. In addition, 12 convertible bonds are expected to enter the forced - redemption counting period within the next month [4][21][24] 3.2 Downward Revision - No convertible bond proposed a downward revision this week. As of now, 100 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 20 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 39 are accumulating days for downward revision, and 2 have issued board - of - directors' proposals for downward revision but have not yet held a general shareholders' meeting [4][27] 3.3 Put Option (Back Sale) - This week, Leger Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option (back - sale) announcement. As of now, 6 convertible bonds are accumulating days to trigger the put - option condition. Among them, 1 proposed a downward revision, 1 is accumulating days for downward revision, and 4 are in the non - downward - revision period [4][30] 4. Primary Issuance - This week, Puxun Convertible Bond was issued. Maolai, Ruike, and Puxun Convertible Bonds have been issued but are pending listing. As of now, there are 8 convertible bonds in the approval - for - registration process, with a pending issuance scale of 7.1 billion yuan, and 8 in the listing - committee - approval process, with a pending issuance scale of 9.8 billion yuan [4][32]
转债凸性与定价系列报告之四:渐行渐近:转债到期和时间价值衰减压力分析
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-30 11:13
Group 1 - The remaining maturity of convertible bonds has significantly shortened to around 2.53 years, with nearly 40% of the bonds having a remaining maturity of less than 2 years, indicating a serious aging phenomenon in the financial and consumer sectors [4][8][10] - If the issuance of new convertible bonds does not increase significantly in the short term, the weighted average remaining maturity is expected to decrease by approximately 0.6 years annually, potentially reaching around 2.0 years by the end of 2026, placing the market in an "ultra-short duration" state [4][10][18] - The valuation of convertible bonds generally follows the rule of decay with remaining maturity, where bonds with less than 2 years of maturity begin to show a declining valuation trend, particularly accelerating when the maturity falls below 1 year [11][17][26] Group 2 - The pressure of potential valuation decline is significant in the context of shortening durations, with a focus on trading opportunities within box ranges, as many convertible bonds are likely to face redemption or maturity [3][50][72] - As of November 21, 2025, approximately 29% of convertible bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 2 years have been redeemed through strong redemption, while 23% have matured, indicating substantial potential maturity pressure [50][53][66] - The current market environment shows that convertible bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 2 years are generally overvalued compared to historical data, suggesting a need for caution regarding potential valuation declines [18][23][44]
转债周度跟踪:金融转债领跌,偏债区估值松动-20251129
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-29 11:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market digested the high valuations accumulated last week, with the underlying stocks rebounding moderately while the convertible bonds lagged in following the upward trend. The structure of the valuation has changed compared to the previous central level, with the valuation in the equity - biased area remaining relatively stable, but there are signs of loosening in the low - parity debt - biased area, especially in the 90 - 100 yuan parity range. The poor performance of bank and non - bank convertible bonds this week may be an important factor dragging down the debt - biased area valuation. Given the large fluctuations in the equity market and the unclear upward trend, and the insufficient protection at the high valuation level of the debt - biased area, attention can be focused on the structural opportunities of equity - biased convertible bonds [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - The convertible bond market mainly digested high valuations this week. The underlying stocks rebounded moderately, but convertible bonds had a weak follow - up increase. The valuation structure changed, with the equity - biased area stable and the low - parity debt - biased area showing signs of valuation decline, especially in the 90 - 100 yuan parity range. The poor performance of financial convertible bonds may have dragged down the debt - biased area valuation. Amid large equity market fluctuations and an unclear upward trend, focus on the structural opportunities of equity - biased convertible bonds [2][6]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, with the rebound of underlying stocks and the digestion of high convertible bond valuations, the 100 - yuan premium rate dropped to the normal level (37.1%) before the sharp increase. As of the latest data, in the scenario of retaining outliers, the 100 - yuan premium rate of the entire market's convertible bonds was 37.1%, a single - week decline of 2.6%, and the latest quantile was at the 95.5% percentile since 2017. - The high - parity area mainly digested valuations this week, and attention should be paid to the downward shift of the valuation center in the low - parity debt - biased area. Due to the increase in the parity level and the resurgence of the call expectation, the conversion premium rate in the 130 - 140 yuan parity range declined the most and basically returned to the previous normal level. However, both the conversion premium rate and the bottom - up premium rate in the low - parity debt - biased area declined, with a relatively larger decline in the 90 - 100 yuan parity range. - The median price of convertible bonds and the yield to maturity were reported at 131.11 yuan and - 6.54% respectively, a change of - 0.28 yuan and - 0.13% from last week. Currently, the quantile levels are at the 97.60 and 1.30 percentiles since 2017 [5][7][12]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Zhongneng, Wei 24, and Zhongqi Convertible Bonds announced redemptions, and 1 convertible bond announced non - redemption, with a forced redemption rate of 75%. Currently, there are 19 convertible bonds that have issued forced redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not yet delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of the forced - redeemed and matured convertible bonds among the non - delisted ones is 7 billion yuan. There are currently 37 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 8 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 13 are expected to issue trigger redemption announcements [19][20]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Tianneng and Lanfan Convertible Bonds proposed downward revisions. As of the latest, 101 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 20 cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 2 have triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 37 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 have issued board of directors' pre - plans for downward revision but have not yet gone to the shareholders' meeting [23]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, Qiaqia Convertible Bond issued a conditional put option announcement. As of the latest, 5 convertible bonds are accumulating put option trigger days, among which 1 proposed a downward revision and 4 are in the non - downward - revision period [26]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - There was no convertible bond issuance this week. Maolai and Ruike Convertible Bonds have been issued and are awaiting listing. As of the latest, there are 9 convertible bonds in the approval - for - registration progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 7.4 billion yuan; and 6 convertible bonds in the listing - committee - approved progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 7.5 billion yuan [28].
固收定期报告:估值有支撑,关注“更高阶”低估
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-11-26 12:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the "fixed - income asset shortage" and "high equity market sentiment" that drove the convertible bond market in 2025 may continue. The convertible bond market is expected to have a return opportunity of over 10% next year [4]. - The supply - demand structure of the convertible bond market will continue to evolve in 2026, with the term structure becoming "dumbbell - shaped", the "aging" of convertible bonds slowing down slightly, the proportion of funds held in convertible bonds remaining high, and the influence of convertible bond ETFs becoming more prominent [4]. - In 2026, the valuation of convertible bonds is likely to remain high. The market risk appetite is not weak, the convertible bond positions of low - risk - preference investors are at a historical low, and the probability of extreme credit risk events in the short term is limited [4]. - In terms of strategy, attention should be paid to "higher - order" undervaluation. The contradiction between the high demand for undervalued convertible bonds from "fixed - income +" investors with a bond - biased approach and the "weak supply" of traditional low - priced convertible bonds needs to be resolved by constructing more complex undervaluation evaluation criteria [4]. - In the context of the "involution" of clause games, more attention should be paid to the odds. In the high - valuation environment, the valuation of convertible bonds is rapidly compressed before the call - back, and the game space for downward revisions has reached a historical low [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bond "Ecological Niche" Advantage Remains Unchanged, with a Decent Return Space in 2026 - The two factors that drove the convertible bond market in 2025, "fixed - income asset shortage" and "high equity market sentiment", may continue in 2026. As of November 20, 2025, the median parity of the convertible bond market exceeded 100 yuan, and the overall equity nature of convertible bonds was at a historical high. The strong equity market is expected to be the most important support for convertible bonds in 2026 [8]. - The demand for convertible bonds from "fixed - income +" investors, especially bond - biased accounts with stock position limits, is expected to remain high due to the low long - term interest rate environment, which will support the valuation of convertible bonds [8]. - The convertible bond index is expected to have a return space of over 10% in 2026. Based on the delta calculation, if the Shanghai Composite Index reaches 4500 - 5000 points in 2026, the overall return of convertible bonds may be around 8% - 17%, and the actual return space may be higher [8]. 3.2 The "Aging" Speed May Slow Down Slightly, and the Dumbbell Structure Gradually Appears - The contraction speed of the convertible bond market in 2026 is expected to be slightly lower than that in 2025, and the stock size may reach 450 - 500 billion yuan. As of November 21, 2025, the stock size of the convertible bond market was about 550 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 180 billion yuan from the end of 2024. The net supply of convertible bonds in 2026 may be - 100 billion yuan [13]. - The "aging" of convertible bonds in 2026 may slow down slightly, and the median remaining term of convertible bonds at the end of next year may be about 2.2 years. The main reasons are the redemption of many short - term convertible bonds since 2025 and the recovery of convertible bond supply starting from mid - 2025 [15]. - In 2026, the number of medium - term convertible bonds will significantly decrease, and the term structure will evolve into a "dumbbell - shaped" structure. By the end of 2026, the number of 3 - 4 - year convertible bonds will decline from over 100 at the beginning of the year to about 30. The market may form a structure with medium - and large - sized convertible bonds within 3 years at one end and small - and medium - sized growth technology - related convertible bonds over 4 years at the other end [16]. - In terms of industries, the convertible bonds of non - bank finance, commercial retail, and consumer service industries will all mature by the end of 2026. The non - bank finance industry involves the largest scale and the most targets, with 4 convertible bonds worth 15 billion yuan maturing. The remaining industries' distributions may not change much, and the balance of convertible bonds in the banking, power equipment and new energy, and basic chemical industries significantly leads the others [18]. 3.3 The Proportion of Funds May Further Increase, Pay Attention to Convertible Bond ETFs - As of the end of October 2025, the proportion of convertible bonds held by funds is estimated to reach 47%, the highest level since the data was released. The increase in the proportion of convertible bonds held by public funds is mainly due to the decrease in the scale of convertible bonds held by insurance and annuity funds. By October 2025, the scale of convertible bonds held by insurance may be less than 50 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 30% from August 2025, and the scale of convertible bonds held by annuities may be close to 130 billion yuan, a record low [20]. - In 2026, the proportion of convertible bonds held by funds is expected to remain high and may even reach a new high. Retail investors have a long - term trend of reducing their holdings of convertible bonds. Insurance and annuity funds may participate in the convertible bond market through FOFs in 2026 due to the low net supply of large - scale and high - rating convertible bonds and the high overall valuation of convertible bonds [22]. - The scale of convertible bond ETFs may continue to expand, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of the high proportion of ETFs on the convertible bond market. As of the end of October 2025, the market value of convertible bonds held by convertible bond ETFs reached 67.84 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 10% of the convertible bond market. The high valuation of newly issued convertible bonds may be related to convertible bond ETFs [27]. 3.4 Valuation is Supported, and There is Room for More Optimism - In 2025, the valuation of convertible bonds increased significantly, and the implied volatility returned to the central level of 2023. As of November 20, 2025, the premium rate per 100 yuan of convertible bonds continued to break through historical highs, and the median implied volatility of convertible bonds exceeded 40% [30]. - In 2026, the valuation of convertible bonds is likely to remain high. The current market risk appetite is not weak, the convertible bond positions of low - risk - preference investors are at a historical low, and the probability of extreme credit risk events in the short term is limited [30]. - The high point of convertible bond valuation may be around 35% - 40%, and considering the possible decline in long - term interest rates and the increase in the bond floor of convertible bonds in 2026, the high point of valuation may be even higher [33]. 3.5 In the High - Valuation Environment, It is Recommended to Focus on "Higher - Order" Undervaluation - In 2025, convertible bond investors clearly preferred undervalued targets. As of November 21, 2025, the return of the low - price strategy was 21.1%, with an excess return of 4.6% compared to the CSI Convertible Bond Index. The relatively "abnormal" excess return may be mainly due to institutional behavior [37]. - In 2026, it may be more difficult for the pure low - price strategy to obtain excess returns. The market is facing the contradiction between the high demand for undervalued convertible bonds from "fixed - income +" investors with a bond - biased approach and the "weak supply" of traditional low - priced convertible bonds. It is recommended to focus on "higher - order" undervaluation [41]. - The convexity strategy may be a good entry point for "higher - order undervaluation". Since 2025, the series of convexity strategies have achieved excellent results, with a Calmar ratio of over 3 and a return of over 20% [42]. 3.6 The "Involution" of Clause Games, and More Attention Should Be Paid to the Odds - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the experience of convertible bond clause games was not good. In the high - level volatile environment of the equity market, listed companies became more cautious in considering convertible bond clauses. As of November 21, 2025, only 1 convertible bond proposed a downward revision in that month, and the ratio of downward - revision announcements to possible downward - revision announcements was 0.04:1, both the lowest levels since March 2023. The ratio of call - back announcements to non - call - back announcements in November was 1.57:1, the highest level in 2025 [45]. - In the high - valuation environment, the convertible bond call - back game has become "involution". The difference in the average conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a call - back progress of 80% - 100% and those with a progress of 0 - 20% has rapidly expanded since September 2025, and the conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a high call - back progress has fallen to a historical low [47]. - The game space for convertible bond downward revisions is narrowing. Under the dual influence of high valuation and institutional preference for undervalued convertible bonds, the average difference between the prices of all convertible bonds eligible for downward revision and the expected price after a full downward revision has narrowed to a relatively low level since 2021 [48]. - The report also lists the convertible bonds whose cooling - off periods for downward revisions and call - backs will end in 2026 [52][53][54].
可转债市场周观察:正股大幅下跌,转债明显惜售
Orient Securities· 2025-11-25 11:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, convertible bonds followed the decline of equities, but the decline was much smaller than that of the underlying stocks. Liquidity did not show significant panic, and the valuation continued to rise, with the premium rate of 100 - yuan bonds reaching 29%. The support for the convertible bond valuation comes from the scarcity premium due to supply less than demand and the support from the strong equity market environment. Before these two factors are completely broken, the convertible bond valuation remains firm [6]. - The cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds has declined. Currently, it is at a low level. High valuation and a decrease in high - quality individual bonds make trading more difficult. In December, due to reasons such as institutional assessments, the probability of position reduction is relatively high. In the case of an inevitable short - term correction in equities, convertible bonds are unlikely to have a continuous upward trend and may even have a supplementary decline. It is necessary to appropriately reduce the return expectations of convertible bonds, cash out in time or switch to defensive sectors. The trading opportunities of convertible bonds are greater than the trend opportunities. If a supplementary decline occurs, it may be one of the few layout opportunities at the end of the year [6]. - Affected by overseas stock markets this week, the A - share market had a systematic correction. Banks and food and beverage sectors were relatively resistant to the decline. Market sentiment was relatively pessimistic, and there was a strong demand to preserve returns at the end of the year. The disturbance from the US stock market further amplified the risk - aversion sentiment, and funds flowed to defensive sectors. Mid - cap blue - chip stocks may take over [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: Significant Decline in Underlying Stocks, Obvious Reluctance to Sell Convertible Bonds - Convertible bonds followed the decline of equities this week, but the decline was much smaller than that of the underlying stocks. The valuation continued to rise, and the premium rate of 100 - yuan bonds reached 29%. The support for the convertible bond valuation comes from the scarcity premium and the strong equity market environment. The cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds has declined, and it is necessary to reduce return expectations, cash out or switch to defensive sectors. Affected by overseas stock markets, the A - share market corrected, and mid - cap blue - chip stocks may take over [6][9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Followed the Decline of Equities, and Valuation Rose Significantly 2.1 Market Overall Performance: All Indexes Closed Lower, and Trading Volume Declined - Affected by overseas stock markets, all equity indexes closed lower this week. The CSI 2000 fell 6.78%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.78%, and other indexes also had different degrees of decline. All industries declined, with banks, media, and food and beverage having smaller declines, and power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, and commercial retail leading the decline. The average daily trading volume decreased by 181.322 billion yuan to 1.86 trillion yuan. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Luokai Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Guocheng Convertible Bond, etc. were relatively active [12]. 2.2 Slight Reduction in Trading Volume, Smaller Declines in High - Rating and Low - Price Convertible Bonds - This week, convertible bonds followed the significant decline of the underlying stocks, and the average daily trading volume decreased to 63.607 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.78%, the parity center decreased by 5.4% to 108.3 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 4.8% to 23.5%. In terms of style, high - price, small - cap, and low - rating convertible bonds performed poorly this week, while high - rating and low - price convertible bonds had smaller declines [14].
可转债周报(2025年11月17日至2025年11月21日):本周有所调整-20251123
EBSCN· 2025-11-23 05:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, both the convertible bond market and the equity market declined. Since the beginning of 2025, both markets have been on an upward trend. Currently, the remaining term of outstanding convertible bonds has shortened, and the number of high - quality individual bonds has decreased. High - price and high - valuation convertible bonds may face certain adjustment pressures, and trading convertible bonds is quite difficult. It is recommended to comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, select bonds in a refined manner, and pay attention to new bond opportunities in industries with high prosperity [4] Summary by Directory Market行情 - From November 17 to November 21, 2025 (5 trading days), the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was - 1.78% (last week's change rate was + 0.52%), and the change of the CSI All - Share Index was - 5.05% (last week's change rate was - 0.53%). Since 2025, the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index has been + 16.50%, and the change rate of the CSI All - Share Index has been + 17.36% [1] - By rating, high - rated bonds (AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (AA+), medium - rated bonds (AA), medium - low - rated bonds (AA -), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) all declined this week, with medium - rated bonds having the largest decline [1] - By convertible bond scale, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 0.5 billion yuan) all declined this week, with medium - scale convertible bonds having the largest decline [2] - By parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 80 yuan) had different performance this week, with ultra - high - parity bonds having the highest increase [2] Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of November 21, 2025, there were 411 outstanding convertible bonds (412 at the end of last week), with a balance of 563.719 billion yuan (566.85 billion yuan at the end of last week) [3] - The average convertible bond price was 131.61 yuan (133.30 yuan at the end of last week), and the percentile was 96.56% (from the beginning of 2023 to November 21, 2025) [3] - The average convertible bond parity was 101.20 yuan (105.52 yuan at the end of last week), and the percentile was 88.67% [3] - The average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 31.88% (27.12% at the end of last week), and the percentile was 38.31% [3] Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - Currently, the remaining term of outstanding convertible bonds has shortened, and the number of high - quality individual bonds has decreased. High - price and high - valuation convertible bonds may face certain adjustment pressures, and trading convertible bonds is quite difficult. It is recommended to comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, select bonds in a refined manner, and pay attention to new bond opportunities in industries with high prosperity [4]
转债周度跟踪20251121:转债抗跌性突出,百元估值逼近40%-20251123
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-23 05:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the convertible bond market approaching the high point at the end of August again, there was an obvious pullback this week. Since the end of August, the convertible bond index has formed a "double top" pattern, and small - cap stocks have pulled back significantly. Compared with the end of August, the anti - decline ability of the convertible bond market in this round is significantly stronger, and the valuation performance is relatively strong. The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation approaches 40%, significantly exceeding the high point at the end of August. This may be related to two factors: Firstly, in this round of the repair market, the prices and valuations of high - priced convertible bonds are significantly weaker, so the high - price area plays a good safety cushion role through reverse valuation support; Secondly, from the perspective of two ETFs, the capital side also shows the characteristic of "reverse operation", and funds flow in reversely during the market correction. In the short term, the convertible bond valuation has reached the highest point this year, with weak valuation protection and being more dependent on the performance of the underlying stocks. Considering the limited downside space of the equity market and the under - allocation of convertible bond positions, there are still many trading opportunities in the convertible bond market [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Weekly View and Outlook - The convertible bond market approached the high point at the end of August again and had an obvious pullback this week. The anti - decline ability in this round is stronger than that at the end of August, and the 100 - yuan premium rate valuation is close to 40%. Although the convertible bond valuation has reached the highest point this year and the valuation protection is weak, there are still trading opportunities due to the limited decline of the equity market and under - allocated positions [2][3]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - The anti - decline ability of convertible bonds is strong, and the valuation has increased significantly. The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation (39.6%) has exceeded the high point on August 22 (37.6%). As of the latest, in the scenario of retaining outliers, the 100 - yuan premium rate of the whole - market convertible bonds is 39.6%, with a weekly increase of 3.5%, and the latest percentile is at the 97.6% percentile since 2017. Although the underlying stocks have fallen significantly, the anti - decline ability of convertible bonds is prominent. Especially, the conversion premium rate in the par value range above 130 yuan has increased significantly, while the valuation in the debt - biased area has slightly declined [2][4]. 3.3 Clause Statistics 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Lizhong Convertible Bond, Chutian Convertible Bond, Guocheng Convertible Bond, Mingdianzhuan 02, and Hongfa Convertible Bond announced redemptions, while Huicheng, Haoyuan, and Aofei Convertible Bonds announced non - redemptions, with a forced redemption rate of 63%. Currently, there are 16 convertible bonds that have issued forced redemption announcements or maturity redemption announcements but have not delisted. The potential conversion or maturity balance of forced - redeemed and maturing convertible bonds among the non - delisted ones is 9.3 billion yuan. There are currently 40 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 9 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 14 are expected to issue trigger redemption announcements [2][17]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - No convertible bonds proposed downward revisions this week. Aidi and Jingneng Convertible Bonds announced the results of downward revisions, both to the bottom. As of the latest, there are 106 convertible bonds in the temporary non - downward - revision range, 20 convertible bonds cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 2 convertible bonds have triggered the condition and the stock price is still lower than the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 34 convertible bonds are accumulating the days for downward revision, and no convertible bonds have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not held a general meeting of shareholders [2][21]. 3.3.3 Put - This week, Honglu and Bairun Convertible Bonds issued conditional put announcements. As of the latest, 7 convertible bonds are accumulating the days to trigger the put, among which 1 convertible bond is also accumulating the days for downward revision, and 6 convertible bonds are in the temporary non - downward - revision range [2][24]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - This week, Maolai Convertible Bond was issued. Maolai and Ruoke Convertible Bonds have been issued but not listed, and Zhuomei Convertible Bond will be listed next week (2025/11/24). As of the latest, there are 8 convertible bonds in the approval - for - registration progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 6.7 billion yuan; there are 6 convertible bonds in the progress of passing the listing committee, with a to - be - issued scale of 7.8 billion yuan [2][27].
转债周度跟踪:转债抗跌性突出,百元估值逼近-20251123
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-23 04:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context where the convertible bond market approached the high point at the end of August again, there was an obvious pullback this week, forming a "double - top" pattern since the end of August, with a significant pullback in micro - cap stocks. The convertible bond market's anti - decline ability was significantly stronger than at the end of August, and the valuation was relatively high. The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation was approaching 40%, exceeding the high point at the end of August. This might be related to two factors: the relatively weak price and valuation of high - price convertible bonds in this round of the repair market, and the "reverse operation" of funds [2][3]. - In the short term, the convertible bond valuation has reached the annual high, with weak valuation protection and a high dependence on the performance of the underlying stocks. Considering the limited downside space of the equity market and the under - allocation of convertible bond positions, there are still trading opportunities in the convertible bond market [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Outlook - The convertible bond market approached the high point at the end of August again and then pulled back, forming a "double - top" pattern. The anti - decline ability of convertible bonds was strong, and the valuation was high. The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation was close to 40%. The reasons were the weak performance of high - price convertible bonds and the "reverse operation" of funds. Short - term valuation protection was weak, but there were trading opportunities [2][3]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - The anti - decline ability of convertible bonds was strong, and the valuation increased significantly. The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation (39.6%) exceeded the high point on August 22 (37.6%). The current 100 - yuan premium rate was 39.6%, with a weekly increase of 3.5%, and the latest quantile was at the 97.6% percentile since 2017 [2][4]. - Although the underlying stocks declined significantly, convertible bonds showed strong anti - decline characteristics. The conversion premium rate in the parity range above 130 yuan increased significantly, while the valuation in the debt - biased area decreased slightly [2][8]. - The median price of convertible bonds was 131.39 yuan, a decrease of 2.61 yuan from last week, and the yield to maturity was - 6.41%, an increase of 0.63% from last week. The current quantile levels were at the 98.10 and 1.50 percentiles since 2017 respectively [14]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Lizhong Convertible Bond, Chutian Convertible Bond, Guocheng Convertible Bond, Mingdian Convertible Bond 02, and Hongfa Convertible Bond announced redemptions, while Huicheng, Haoyuan, and Aofei Convertible Bonds announced non - redemptions, with a forced redemption rate of 63%. There were 16 convertible bonds that had issued forced redemption or maturity redemption announcements but had not been delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of forced - redemption and maturity convertible bonds was 9.3 billion yuan. Currently, there were 40 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 9 were expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 14 were expected to issue redemption trigger announcements [2][17][19]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - No convertible bonds proposed downward revisions this week. Aidi and Jingneng Convertible Bonds announced downward - revision results, both revised to the bottom. As of now, 106 convertible bonds were in the non - downward - revision period, 20 could not be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 2 had triggered the downward - revision condition but the stock price was still below the trigger price and no announcement had been made, and 34 were accumulating downward - revision days [2][22]. 3.3.3 Put - Option - This week, Honglu and Bairun Convertible Bonds issued conditional put - option announcements. As of now, 7 convertible bonds were accumulating put - option trigger days, 1 was also accumulating downward - revision days, and 6 were in the non - downward - revision period [2][25]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - This week, Maolai Convertible Bond was issued, and Maolai and Ruike Convertible Bonds had been issued but not yet listed. Zhuomei Convertible Bond was expected to be listed next week (November 24, 2025). As of now, there were 8 convertible bonds in the approval - registration progress, with a total issuance scale of 6.7 billion yuan, and 6 in the listing - committee approval progress, with a total issuance scale of 7.8 billion yuan [2][28].