现券方面，银行间主要利率债收益率大幅上行。其中，30年期国债活跃券"25超长特别国债02"收益率一 度上行6.35BP报2.0575%；"25超长特别国债05"收益率一度上行6.75BP报2.1175%；50年期国债"25超长 特别国债03"收益率一度上行6.6BP报2.176%；10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率一度上行超过4BP报 1.789%。 对比中债估值，上述表现均创4月初乃至3月下旬以来新高，尤其30年期品种时隔4个多月来到2%上方。 截至发稿，30年期、10年期国债活跃券收益率分别报2.037%、1.77%，分别较上一日上行4.3BP、 2.5BP。 当天，其他期限利率债收益率也有不同程度上行，5年期、1年期国债活跃券收益率分别上行3.75BP、 2.5BP。不同期限国开债收益率也有明显上行。信用债市场上，银行"二永债"收益率普遍大幅上行，最 大上行幅度超过10BP。 冰火两重天。 股债市场正上演"冰火两重天"。 8月18日，A股延续上行趋势，并在一片涨声中创出纪录——A股市值总和（A股最新价×A股总股本）首 次突破100万亿元大关。同日，债市则继续下跌，30年国债期货创5个多月以来最大跌幅 ...

8月15日，央行发布了《2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简称"《报 告》"），在总结上半年货币政策实施效果的同时，对一下阶段货币政策思路进行了阐述。 《报告》指出，下阶段要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，抓好各项货币政策措施执行，强化 逆周期调节，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节 奏。同时，密切关注海外主要央行货币政策变化，持续加强对银行体系流动性供求和金融市 场变化的分析监测。此外，引导银行稳固信贷支持力度，保持金融总量合理增长。 信贷基调方面，《报告》要求"引导银行稳固信贷支持力度，保持金融总量合理增长"，而第 一季度报告则提出"引导银行加大信贷投放力度，保持信贷总量合理增长"。有机构表示，下 半年央行对信贷数量的诉求相对下降，将更加重视"稳量提质"。 落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，保持流动性充裕 《报告》显示，上半年，货币政策逆周期调节效果较为明显，金融总量平稳增长，6月末， 社会融资规模存量、广义货币供应量（M2）同比分别增长8.9%和8.3%，人民币贷款余额 268.6万亿元。 民生银行首经团队指出，《报告》基调从一季度的"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"调整为" ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/8/18 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 项目类别 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,950.00 | -110.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,743.00 | -30.50↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | -10.00↓ 主力 ...

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 近日，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）发布《2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简 称"《报告》"）。《报告》指出，今年以来，我国货币政策适度宽松，强化逆周期调节，综合运用多种 货币政策工具，服务实体经济高质量发展，为经济持续回升向好创造了适宜的货币金融环境。 《报告》总体定调与7月底中共中央政治局会议思路相一致，但也释放出一些新信号、新提法，引发市 场关注。 比如，对于下一阶段货币政策主要思路，《报告》基调从一季度的"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"，调整 为"落实落细适度宽松的货币政策"，这与7月底中共中央政治局会议精神保持一致，表明未来货币政策 或更重视政策执行与落地。 此外，《报告》还提出，把握好金融支持实体经济和保持自身健康性的平衡。申万宏源证券首席经济学 家赵伟认为，当前货币适度宽松过程中，风险防控仍是重点工作。这一提法和7月中共中央政治局会议 相关要求也有所呼应。 展望未来货币政策走向，温彬预计，货币政策将根据国内外经济和金融运行情况相机抉择，增强灵活性 预见性，强化宏观政策取向一致性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，努力完成全年经济社会发 展目标任务，实现" ...

人民银行18日开展2665亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有1120亿元逆 回购到期，公开市场实现净投放1545亿元。 上周（8月11日-15日）央行公开市场净回笼4149亿元，此外周五开展5000亿元6M买断式回购操作，全 月买断式回购净投放3000亿元。上半周央行逆回购持续净回笼，资金维持宽松，但15日隔夜价格下破 1.3%的情况并未重现。周五受税期与政府债缴款影响，资金边际收敛，但央行逆回购转为净投放，资 金收敛幅度有限。 资金利率整体宽松，临近税期出现小幅收敛，平均资金利率小幅抬升。税期前夕（11-14日）尽管央行 逆回购连续净回笼，资金利率依旧维持低位运行。R001连续10个交易日持稳于1.35%水平，单日波动不 足1BP；R007缓步升至1.47%，不过绝对价格仍处于相对低位。随着税期渐进，资金情绪出现边际收敛 迹象。纳税申报截止当日（15日），央行逆回购转为净投放1160亿元，并且等额续做了5000亿元6M买 断式逆回购，资金面有所收敛。R001单日上行8.7BP至1.44%；R007单日上行1.3BP至1.49%。 华西证券认为，二季度货币政策报告传递的信号，货币 ...

本周（8月18日-22日）逆回购到期规模将下降至7118亿元，主要是周五到期规模较大；政府债净缴款规 模将降至2941亿元，主要集中在下半周；此外，周初税期走款可能也会带来一定的扰动。尽管央行并未 打开隔夜利率的下限，但相应的也会控制资金价格的波动，重提"防空转"可能也不会改变资金在现有框 架内相对宽松的状态，因此本周资金大幅调整的概率可能也相对有限。 在华西证券首席经济学家刘郁看来，8月18-19日税期走款，资金面可能继续小幅波动。税期过后，跨月 未至，且前一周影响流动性的两大因素（大额政府债缴款和万亿公开市场到期）均同步缓释，资金面或 迎宽松窗口，流动性大概率自发转松，隔夜利率或将回归OMO-5BP附近，7天利率或也随之修复至 1.45%-1.47%范围内。 消息面上，人民银行15日发布《2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》指出，落实落细适度宽松的货 币政策。根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，保持流动性充 裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，持续营造适宜的金融 环境。把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策的重要考量，推动物价保持在合理 ...

2025年8月15日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期 较2025年8月8日分别变动1.59BP、0.65BP、-0.68BP、4.94BP、4.94BP、5.74BP、8.75BP、10.5BP。 | | | 中德国债收益率曲线(到期)》 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 8月8日 | 8月15日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.1988 | 1.2237 | 2. 49 | | 0.08 | 1. 2783 | 1. 2987 | 2. 04 | | 0. 17 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 0 | | 0. 25 | 1. 2966 | 1.282 | -1.46 | | 0.5 | 1. 3356 | 1.3773 | 4.17 | | 0. 75 | 1. 3475 | 1. 3607 | 1.32 | | 1 | 1. 3506 | 1. 3665 | 1.59 | | 2 | 1. 3956 | 1. 4021 | 0. 65 | | 3 | 1.4159 | 1. 4091 | -0.6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Stock Index - A-share broad-based indexes had positive weekly gains, with the ChiNext Index having the largest cumulative gain of 8.58%, followed by the STAR 50 Index with a 5.53% cumulative gain [9]. - After the "Trump-Putin meeting", Trump proposed a "direct peace agreement" between Russia and Ukraine. There is no plan to impose additional tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil. US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month-on-month, and real retail sales have grown for ten consecutive months. China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen financial support for technology and consumption. The market is strong, and although it may oscillate in the short term, the medium-term upward trend remains unchanged [9]. Treasury Bonds - In the context of the continuous heavy-volume rise in the equity market, there is a need to highly focus on the possibility of residents' funds flowing from fund management to the equity market, and the increase in trading volume also raises the risk of frictions in the inter - bank market funds. The increase in risk appetite leading to greater fluctuations in the liability side of broad funds and increased frictions in the capital market may be important potential risks for the bond market recently [10]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: A-share broad-based indexes all had positive weekly gains, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.58% and the STAR 50 Index rising 5.53% [9]. - **Core View**: The market may oscillate at high points, but the medium-term upward trend remains unchanged. Those with positions can continue to hold or lock in positions on pullbacks, and those without positions can consider buying on pullbacks [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The RSI indicator shows that the market index may have a pullback risk [9]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Buy on pullbacks [9]. Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: On Friday, the bond market sentiment fluctuated sharply. In the morning, the market recovered significantly, but as the equity market rose rapidly, the bond market situation reversed, and yields rose unilaterally. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose 2.5BP, the 10 - year CDB bond yield rose 3.75BP, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield rose 4BP [10]. - **Core View**: In the context of the equity market's rise, there are potential risks in the bond market, and it is necessary to avoid the adjustment in the short term [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Focus on taking profits [10]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal trends. Supply and demand both weakened, with external demand falling more明显 on the demand side and production slowing on the supply side. Upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while downstream export - oriented industries were suppressed [17]. Inflation - In July 2025, the CPI was flat year - on - year and rose 0.4% month - on - month; the PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI remained sluggish [20]. Industrial Added Value - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value fell to 5.7%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index fell to 5.8%. The decline in industrial added value was mainly dragged down by the export chain [23]. Fixed - Asset Investment - The estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in July turned negative to - 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing, narrow - sense infrastructure, and real estate investment in the current month fell to - 0.3%, - 5.1%, and - 17.0% respectively. The reasons for the negative growth are complex, including short - term extreme weather and statistical method issues, medium - term export expectation decline and policy implementation, and long - term real estate investment convergence [26]. Social Retail Sales - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales fell to 3.7%, and that of above - quota retail sales fell to 2.8%. The weakening was mainly reflected in the low - level shock of catering revenue, the weakening of sales of state - subsidized categories, and the decline in real - estate chain consumption [29]. Social Financing - In July 2025, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were - 50 billion yuan. At the end of July, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 9.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. Although the credit growth was negative, social financing, M1, and M2 growth rates improved with fiscal support. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and policies may be adjusted according to the situation [32]. Imports and Exports - In July 2025, China's exports were $321.78 billion, imports were $223.54 billion, and the trade surplus was $98.24 billion. The import and export performance in July was significantly stronger than market expectations, mainly due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariff increases [35]. Weekly Focus - August 20, 09:00: China's five - year and one - year loan prime rates (LPR) for August [37]. - August 20, 14:00: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [37]. - August 21, 16:00: Eurozone's preliminary manufacturing PMI for August [37]. - August 21, 21:45: US preliminary Markit manufacturing and service PMI for August [37]. - August 22 - 24: The 2025 China Computing Power Conference will be held in Datong, Shanxi [37].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The copper market lacks driving forces, and price fluctuations are narrowing [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79,060 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 79,080 with a night - session increase of 0.03%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,760 with a decrease of 0.17%. Trading volumes of both Shanghai and LME copper decreased, while positions increased [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper inventory was 24,560, an increase of 126 from the previous day, and LME copper inventory was 155,800, a decrease of 50. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 7.40%, an increase of 0.31% [1]. - **Spread Data**: There were various changes in spreads, such as the LME copper spread and the spread between Shanghai copper spot and futures [1]. Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Macroeconomic News**: In China, July economic data showed that social consumer goods retail, industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and real - estate sales were all lower than the previous month. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. In the US, July retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, but consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in August [1]. - **Industry News**: In June, Chile's copper and copper ore exports to China declined due to lower production, but rebounded in July. In July 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons, a 9.6% increase year - on - year. Codelco's copper production in June increased by 17% year - on - year to 120,200 tons. PT Smelting's maintenance period was extended due to equipment failure, and Codelco's El Teniente copper smelter restarted [1][3]. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but slightly higher than 50.2% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 General - In July 2025, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 12% [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the effects of the implemented policies will further emerge [2] - The CSRC approved the registration of options on fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as well as the registration of futures and options on offset printing paper [2] 2.2 Metals - The first - batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2025 have been issued to relevant companies, and it is expected that these indicators may no longer be publicly announced [5] - In July 2025, global physical gold ETFs had an inflow of $3.2 billion, and the total assets under management reached a record high of $386 billion [5] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In early August 2025, coal prices in China showed an all - round increase, with the price of coke rising by nearly 10% [7] - In July 2025, China's industrial raw coal production was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; crude oil production was 18.12 million tons, an increase of 1.2%; natural gas production was 21.6 billion cubic meters, an increase of 7.4% [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's Sinopec discovered a large - scale deep - seated shale gas field with newly proven geological reserves of 124.588 billion cubic meters [10] - Indonesia expects its oil production to reach 610,000 barrels per day in 2026 and its natural gas production to reach 984,000 barrels per day [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - On August 15, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.36%, while the average price of 15 - kg piglets was 28.87 yuan/kg, a weekly decrease of 5.03% [12] - As of early August 2025, the purchase of summer wheat in China exceeded 80 million tons, faster than last year [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - This week, 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 22 billion yuan of treasury cash time deposits will mature on Tuesday and Wednesday [13] - On August 15, the central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 116 billion yuan [13] 3.2 Key News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices and optimizing the credit structure [14] - In July 2025, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year [15] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market was weak, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rising, and most treasury bond futures closing down [20] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.90% to 475.25 points, with a trading volume of 103.1 billion yuan [20] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1823, down 93 basis points from the previous trading day [23] - The US dollar index fell 0.36% to 97.8509, and most non - US currencies rose [23] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed - Income believes that the central bank emphasizes promoting a reasonable recovery of prices, and current credit delivery focuses more on quality [24] - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the economic data in July were slightly volatile, and the "fixed - income +" strategy is favored [24] 4. Stock Market News - As of August 15, 2025, 310 stocks had more than doubled in price this year, excluding new listings [28] - China Securities recommends focusing on five strong industries: innovative drugs, resources, communications, military, and gaming [28] - As of August 15, 2025, 936 out of 1,785 funds established in 2021 had a net value above 1, accounting for 52.44% [29]