Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing a "moderately loose monetary policy" through coordinated efforts in total volume, structure, transmission, and market regulation to support economic growth and stability [4]. Group 1: Total Volume - It is essential to reasonably expand the total monetary supply by flexibly utilizing tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, ensuring that the growth rates of money supply and social financing align with economic growth and price targets [4]. Group 2: Structural Optimization - The article advocates for the innovation and increased deployment of structural monetary policy tools, focusing on supporting key areas such as technological innovation, manufacturing, small and micro enterprises, and expanding domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Transmission Mechanism - Improving the transmission mechanism is crucial, which includes enhancing financing guarantees, risk compensation, and performance incentives to ensure effective policy delivery from banks to enterprises [4][5]. Group 4: Market Regulation - The need to regulate market participants is highlighted, including addressing unreasonable charges in the credit market and reducing financing intermediary costs to maintain a fair and orderly financial environment [4]. Group 5: Digital Currency - The article discusses the potential of the new generation of digital currency, which will have attributes of bank liabilities and interest-bearing functions, expanding its application from retail to wholesale and various financial services [6]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the article suggests that as residents' income and security levels improve, the digital currency ecosystem will continue to develop, enhancing its role in consumer services and supporting the real economy [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures generally rose slightly, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [1][2] - Wande A-Share Index fell 0.53% on Thursday, with a trading volume of 2.46 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.53 trillion yuan [2] - Transactional investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On Thursday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened mostly lower, rose in the morning session, fluctuated horizontally after the pullback, and had a wave of rally near the end of the session. As of the close, the 30-year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.12%, the 10-year T2606 rose 0.04%, the 5-year TF2606 rose 0.02%, and the 2-year TS2606 rose 0.02% [1] - Wande A-Share Index opened slightly lower on Thursday, continued to decline in the morning session, rebounded in the afternoon, and closed with a small doji阴线, down 0.53%, with a trading volume of 2.46 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.53 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 24.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 23 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 1.5 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the interbank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.33%, and the weighted average of the previous trading day was 1.37%; the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47%, and the weighted average of the previous trading day was 1.46% [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of interbank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2-year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5-year decreased by 1.02 BP to 1.55%, the 10-year decreased by 0.23 BP to 1.81%, and the 30-year decreased by 0.99 BP to 2.34% [1] - The central bank held a symposium of economic and financial experts, stating that in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase the intensity of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [1] - Iran's new supreme leader's first statement: Will not give up revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and new fronts will be opened if necessary. Trump said that when oil prices rise, we make a lot of money; it is important to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. Iranian diplomatic officials said that some countries' ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If coordinated with the Iranian navy, many ships can still pass through the strait [1] Market Logic - In US dollar terms, China's exports increased by 21.8% year-on-year from January to February, better than the estimated 7.3%, and the year-on-year increase in December last year was 6.6% [1] - China's CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year in February, exceeding the market expectation of 0.9%; the PPI decreased 0.9% year-on-year, better than the market expectation of a 1.2% year-on-year decrease. The overall inflation level in China rebounded more than expected in February. The core CPI rose 0.7% month-on-month in February, and the PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month [1] - Recently, the central bank governor said in an interview that in 2026, China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2606 contract rising 0.05% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds also fluctuated. Looking ahead, the short - term treasury bond futures prices are still supported, while the long - term treasury bond futures prices are under pressure [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of TS2606, TS2609, TF2606, TF2609, T2606, T2609, TL2606, and TL2609 all rose, with increases of 0.024, 0.018, 0.025, 0.025, 0.050, 0.045, 0.160, and 0.090 respectively, and the corresponding increases were 0.02%, 0.02%, 0.02%, 0.02%, 0.05%, 0.04%, 0.14%, and 0.08%. The trading volumes were 27647, 245, 57220, 1494, 76637, 2870, 85737, and 8021 respectively, and the changes in open interest were 398, 100, 1095, 288, - 2890, - 88, - 1657, and - 551 respectively [2] - **Arbitrage Analysis**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 0.5bp, DR007 interest rate rose 0.34bp, and GC007 interest rate fell 0.8bp [2] - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y - term treasury bond yield fell 0.03bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.22bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10Y - term US treasury bond yield rose 6bp, the 10Y - term German treasury bond yield rose 4bp, and the 10Y - term Japanese treasury bond yield rose 2.3bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On March 12, the central bank carried out 24.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.5 billion yuan [3] - **Industry Policy**: More than 10 trillion yuan of inter - bank deposits may see interest rate cuts. The Ministry of Finance revised the government revenue and expenditure classification in 2026, adding new expenditure items for ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [3] - **Economic Outlook**: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The social logistics cost ratio in 2025 reached a record low. Iran's statement may affect the global situation [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: Most money market interest rates rose, and US treasury bond yields also increased [3] - **Market Analysis**: The central bank's net investment in reverse repurchase, Shibor short - term varieties mostly rose, and the capital market remained relatively stable. Affected by the Middle East situation, the global risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the inflation expectation was pushed up, leading to an increase in US treasury bond yields and greater market fluctuations [3] - **Market Outlook**: The short - term treasury bond futures prices are still supported, while the long - term treasury bond futures prices are under pressure due to factors such as better - than - expected CPI and PPI data and rising commodity prices [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit in January, which decreased by over 25% to $54.5 billion compared to the previous month [2] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a new wave of price increases, with some products seeing price hikes of up to 85% [2] - In February, China's sales of power and energy storage batteries reached 113.2 GWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 25.7% [2] Economic Data - The report provides key economic indicators, including the Baltic Dry Index at 1926.00, which increased by 0.36%, and the Nasdaq Index, which decreased by 1.78% to 22,311.98 [4] - The report notes the performance of various indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 1.56% to 46,677.85 and the S&P 500 down by 1.52% to 6,672.62 [4] - The report also mentions the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year yield increasing by 9.43 basis points to 3.743% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the successful conclusion of the 2026 National Two Sessions, highlighting the approval of the "14th Five-Year Plan" which outlines key economic and social development goals for the next five years, emphasizing high-quality development and common prosperity [3][4]. Economic Growth Targets - The government has set an economic growth target range of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, which aligns with China's potential growth rate and aims to support the long-term goal of modernization by 2035 [5][4]. - This target reflects a balance between maintaining employment, improving livelihoods, and managing risks, showcasing the government's commitment to high-quality economic development [4][5]. Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The fiscal policy for 2026 includes a deficit rate of approximately 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year [6]. - General public budget expenditure is projected to reach 30 trillion yuan, marking an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan [6]. - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds to support major construction projects and initiatives [6]. - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue, aimed at creating a favorable financial environment for high-quality development, including measures to reduce financing costs for businesses [6]. Administrative Reforms - The government aims to enhance the vitality of various business entities by addressing administrative enforcement issues, with a focus on reducing burdens and improving services [7]. - A special action was conducted to rectify prominent issues in administrative enforcement, resulting in the correction of over 60,000 cases and recovering nearly 30 billion yuan in economic losses for businesses [7]. Social Welfare and Livelihood Improvements - The "14th Five-Year Plan" includes several key indicators related to social welfare, with a focus on improving living standards and increasing income for residents [9]. - The government has introduced a "Rural and Urban Resident Income Increase Plan" to promote income growth among low-income groups and enhance property income [9][11]. - Measures to increase financial support for residents include raising the minimum standard for basic pensions and increasing healthcare subsidies [11]. Employment and Income Generation - The government emphasizes the importance of stabilizing and expanding job opportunities as a direct channel for increasing residents' income, particularly in modern service industries and emerging sectors [10]. - There is a call for enhanced training programs to support the transition of workers from traditional sectors to new employment opportunities, ensuring income growth for key demographics [10]. Capital Market Development - The article highlights the role of the capital market in increasing residents' income, advocating for a stable and healthy market environment that provides reasonable returns for investors [11]. - The government aims to implement policies that support the growth of the capital market, ensuring that companies maintain strong profitability and governance [11].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to support the real economy and ensure stable financial market development [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC held a meeting on March 12, 2023, to analyze the current economic and financial situation, focusing on monetary policy support for the real economy and the reform of the monetary policy framework [1][3]. - Experts at the meeting emphasized the importance of achieving the main goals for economic and social development by 2025, highlighting the positive momentum in economic operations since the beginning of the year [3]. - The PBOC has made several adjustments to structural monetary policy tools, which have effectively boosted market confidence and stabilized social expectations [3]. Group 2: Future Directions - The PBOC plans to fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Central Economic Work Conference, aiming to create a conducive monetary and financial environment for sustained economic improvement [3]. - The focus will be on constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system while continuing to apply a moderately accommodative monetary policy [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, with CPI and import - export data exceeding expectations, LPR remaining unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations continuing. There is uncertainty in foreign capital inflows due to increased global trade uncertainty [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - The monthly Chinese CPI has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; the monthly Chinese PPI has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - The social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 1.58%. M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 5.88%. The manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decline rate of 0.61% [10]. - The dollar index is 99.21, with a day - on - day increase of 0.28 and a growth rate of 0.28%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.8768, with a day - on - day increase of 0.012 and a growth rate of 0.17%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a day - on - day increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 1.96%. DR007 is 1.46, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.68%. R007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.55%. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.51, with a day - on - day change of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.17%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day change of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.17% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On March 11, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.45 yuan, 105.95 yuan, 108.26 yuan, and 111.25 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.03%, - 0.04%, and - 0.19% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.037 yuan, 0.030 yuan, 0.022 yuan, and 0.146 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - On March 11, 2026, the central bank conducted a 26.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.367%, 1.460%, 1.500%, and 1.535% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. - In January, the social financing scale had a good start, with a new - added scale of 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The net financing of government bonds rebounded, and the front - loaded fiscal efforts were obvious. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 rebounded to 4.9%, the growth rate of M2 rebounded to 9%, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed to 4.1%. The growth rate of RMB loans declined to 6%, while the growth rate of deposits rebounded to 10.1%, and the gap between deposit and loan growth rates widened [2]. IV. Spread Overview The report provides various spread data, including the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of cash bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [35][34]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents data on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, as well as the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract in the past three years [40][42]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows data on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years [44][51]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides data on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years [52]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report offers data on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years [56][59]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures oscillates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Economic Outlook - The economic growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%[3] - The urban unemployment rate is projected to be around 5.5% with over 12 million new jobs expected[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit is planned at 4% of GDP, amounting to 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year[4] - General public budget expenditure is expected to reach 30 trillion yuan, up approximately 1.27 trillion yuan from last year[4] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy will be maintained, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery[5] - The central bank conducted a 230 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%[11] Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year government bond decreased by 0.20 basis points to 1.7850%[15] - The bond market saw a mixed performance with a slight weakening followed by a recovery towards the end of the trading day[15] International Market Trends - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 3 basis points to 3.57% and the 10-year yield up by 4 basis points to 4.12%[22] - Major European economies also experienced significant increases in 10-year bond yields, with Germany's yield rising by 10 basis points to 2.85%[26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, emphasizing the importance of promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [5][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [5][6]. - The government work report indicates a shift in monetary policy focus from "strength" to "precision" and from "total" to "structure," highlighting the need for a more targeted approach in response to current economic conditions [6][12]. - Analysts predict at least one RRR cut and one interest rate reduction within the year, with a stronger emphasis on the necessity and certainty of RRR cuts compared to interest rate reductions [7][9]. Group 2: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - There is an increased focus on the collaborative effects of monetary policy tools in terms of both total and structural aspects, with structural tools expected to play a more prominent role [12][13]. - The government work report introduces new proposals for optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools, including increasing their scale and improving implementation methods to support key areas such as domestic demand and technological innovation [12][14]. - The PBOC aims to inject more low-cost long-term funds into specific sectors, such as technology and small and micro enterprises, to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization and avoid fund misallocation [12][13]. Group 3: Financing Costs and Market Conditions - The report emphasizes the need to lower financing costs, not just by reducing loan interest rates but also by eliminating hidden costs associated with financing, such as guarantee fees and assessment fees [10][11]. - The current economic environment suggests that while the overall financing conditions remain loose, the necessity for interest rate reductions may decrease as inflation gradually recovers and economic conditions improve [9][10]. - Analysts expect that the financing demand supported by the newly established 100 billion yuan special fund could potentially leverage up to 10 trillion yuan in financing for residents and the private economy [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand, with the downstream resumption driving continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to engage in short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 161,060 yuan/ton, up 4,900 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 110,926 hands, down 3,691 hands; the position of the main contract is 330,671 hands, down 3,232 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 11,820 yuan/ton, down 9,740 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 36,861 hands/ton, up 531 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 154,750 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 151,250 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,505 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 14,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 7,175 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,520 tons, down 5,950 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons; the monthly export volume is 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 168,000 MWh, down 33,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 51,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 111,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 202,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 181,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 196,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 45%, down 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 55%, up 55 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,041,000 vehicles, down 677,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 945,000 vehicles, down 765,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 40.28%, down 7.65 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 945,000 vehicles, up 1,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, up 152,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 97.49%, down 6.93 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 98.72%, up 0.18 percentage points; the total call position is 101,421 contracts, down 77,379 contracts; the total put position is 97,569 contracts, down 69,631 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 96.2%, up 2.6897 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.66%, down 0.0078 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - In February, the average price reduction of new energy vehicle models was 48,000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 13.5%; the average price reduction of conventional fuel vehicle models was 46,000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 12.5% [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy this year, using various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [2] - It is expected that this year's GDP increment will exceed 6 trillion yuan, and a national - level merger and acquisition fund will be established, expected to leverage over 1 trillion yuan of funds [2] - This year, a more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, with the total expenditure exceeding 30 trillion yuan for the first time, the new government bond scale reaching 11.89 trillion yuan, and the central transfer payment to local governments reaching 10.42 trillion yuan. A 100 - billion - yuan fiscal - financial coordinated policy to boost domestic demand will be launched, and a 25 - billion - yuan consumer goods trade - in policy will be implemented [2] 3.8 Market Analysis - The main lithium carbonate contract fluctuated strongly, with a 2.94% increase at the close. The position decreased month - on - month, the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis weakened compared with the previous day [2] - On the fundamentals, overseas mines in the raw material end are holding prices and reluctant to sell, and smelters' inquiry sentiment has increased. The supply of lithium carbonate will continue to grow, and the demand has also recovered. The industrial inventory is decreasing, and the downstream is replenishing inventory [2] - In the options market, the put - call ratio of the position is 96.2%, up 2.6897% month - on - month, and the implied volatility has decreased [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are below the 0 axis, and the red bars are expanding [2]