Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View The Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Report continues the main tone of "appropriately accommodative monetary policy" and emphasizes structural monetary policy and promoting a reasonable price recovery. Compared with the Q2 report, it focuses more on reducing banks' liability costs and promotes the transformation of the monetary policy framework. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards liquidity, and the bond market is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [1][4][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy and maintain relatively loose social financing conditions - The overall tone of the monetary policy remains "appropriately accommodative," with the Q3 2025 report further emphasizing maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity through various monetary policy operations and promote a decline in overall financing costs, which may imply that bond yields may remain at low levels in the short term [1][5]. 2. Implement various structural monetary policy tools and emphasize financial support for technology, consumption, etc. - The Q3 2025 report mentioned leveraging the dual functions of total volume and structure of monetary policy tools, implementing various structural monetary policy tools, and increasing support for key areas such as technological innovation, boosting consumption, micro and small enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [1][6]. 3. Prioritize promoting a reasonable price recovery as an important consideration for monetary policy implementation - The Q3 2025 report still emphasized promoting a reasonable recovery in prices. Although inflation data has stabilized, the absolute level remains low, and monetary policy needs to focus on promoting price recovery and expanding domestic demand [1][6]. 4. Reduce banks' liability costs to widen the space for counter - cyclical monetary policy adjustments - The Q3 2025 report frequently mentioned reducing banks' liability costs. The central bank will improve the interest rate control framework, strengthen policy interest rate guidance, and take measures to reduce banks' liability costs and drive down social financing costs. Some small and medium - sized banks have started to reduce deposit rates, and after net interest margins stabilize, the space for monetary policy will expand [2][7]. 5. Continue to promote the transformation of the monetary policy framework - The monetary policy framework places more emphasis on the role of price - type regulation. Through deepening interest rate marketization reforms, it aims to smooth the interest rate transmission relationship from short to long and the comparison relationship between different asset yields [3][7].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025," outlining the future monetary policy direction [1] - The report highlights significant external uncertainties and challenges to international economic trade order, while also acknowledging risks to domestic economic performance [1] - The third quarter GDP growth was reported at 4.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter, prompting the PBOC to emphasize the need for stronger domestic economic recovery [1] Monetary Policy Direction - The PBOC signals the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy and the strengthening of policy execution and transmission [1] - There is a possibility of a further 10 basis points interest rate cut in the fourth quarter if domestic demand does not recover sufficiently, aimed at reducing financing costs and stabilizing overall demand [1] Support for Consumption - The report introduces measures to support personal credit repair, which is seen as a continuation and deepening of financial support for consumption system construction [1] Renminbi Internationalization - The PBOC's stance on Renminbi internationalization is increasingly positive, identifying "capital account opening" and "cross-border payments" as key strategies [1] Structural Optimization - The PBOC is focusing on the internal coordination of the interest rate system, indicating a shift in monetary policy from total volume control to a dual emphasis on structural optimization and effective transmission [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stock market shows a shrinking volume and narrow - range oscillation, with the dividend style being prominent. It is recommended to transfer technology funds to the price - rising chain and continue the dumbbell configuration [1][6]. - The bond market sentiment is bullish. Although there is still short - term support, the downward space for yields may be limited, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [2][7]. - For stock index options, it is advisable to continue holding covered positions for defense as the market style rotates and no capital main line has been formed yet [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Shrinking volume and narrow - range oscillation, with the dividend style being prominent. The basis, spread, and position of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Logic**: The Shanghai Composite Index oscillated narrowly around 4,000 points on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 2 trillion yuan. The style structure was further adjusted, and the sustainability of hotspots was limited. After the release of the 25Q3 monetary policy report, long - term bond prices opened higher and rose, the bank sector soared in the morning, and the dividend index was strong. High - risk - appetite sectors retreated, and the external market's drag on the domestic market weakened [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Dividend ETF + IM long positions [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Focus on covered defense [6]. - **Logic**: The equity market oscillated weakly yesterday, and the turnover of each option variety oscillated and recovered but remained at a relatively low level of liquidity since October. The option sentiment index showed a weak trend, especially for the CSI 1000 index options and technology - sector option varieties. Option trading sentiment changed with the style switch, and option volatility strengthened [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered positions [6]. 3.1.3 Bond Index Futures - **View**: Bond market sentiment is bullish. The trading volume, position, spread, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL have changed to varying degrees. The central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 92.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [7]. - **Logic**: Bond index futures prices rose across the board yesterday. The domestic bond market was generally bullish, interest - rate bond yields mostly declined, and the inter - bank market liquidity improved. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report in 2025 continued the keynote of a "moderately loose monetary policy" [2][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillate strongly. Hedging strategy: pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels. Basis strategy: pay attention to the positive spread strategy and basis widening. Curve strategy: appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report lists the economic indicators to be released in China from November 13 to 14, 2025, including new RMB loans, social financing scale, M2 money supply annual rate, total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate, and added value of industrial enterprises above designated size annual rate [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Sino - US Relations**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with representatives of the National Committee on United States - China Relations, emphasizing the broad cooperation space in the economic and trade fields between the two countries and the need to implement the consensus of the two heads of state [10]. - **New Energy**: The National Energy Administration issued a guiding opinion on promoting the integrated and coordinated development of new energy, including optimizing the power structure and energy - storage configuration ratio of "desert, Gobi, and wasteland" new - energy bases and exploring the construction of new water - wind - solar integrated bases [10]. - **Automobile**: The Ministry of Public Security completed the solicitation draft of the national standard "Technical Conditions for Motor Vehicle Operation Safety", which includes speed - limit requirements and safety requirements for new - energy vehicles [11]. - **Power Battery**: The 2025 World Power Battery Conference held a signing ceremony in Yibin, Sichuan, with 180 projects signed, totaling 86.13 billion yuan. After full operation, the expected annual output value will exceed 90 billion yuan, and over 50 leading enterprises will settle in Yibin [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes sub - sections on stock index futures data, stock index options data, and bond index futures data, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [12][16][28].

赵伟对记者表示，在当前社会融资规模的主要支撑来自政府债券发行的背景下，此表述实际上从侧面凸 显了货币政策正着力加强与财政政策的协同配合。 在结构性货币政策工具方面，《报告》指出，发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，落实好各类结 构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸 等重点方向。 中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 央行日前发布了《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简称《报告》）。在国内经济形势方 面，《报告》指出，我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，国内经济回升向好基础仍需加力巩固。同 时，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，要保持战略 定力，增强必胜信心，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务取得重大突破。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟对《中国经营报》记者表示，《报告》指出"我国经济运行依然面临不 少风险挑战"，但新增"国内经济回升向好基础仍需加力巩固"的表述，这进一步突显政策层面对巩固经 济复苏态势的重视。同时，《报告》提出"要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心"，既表明对当前经济的清醒 认知，也传递出完成全年经济增长 ...

今年以来，中国人民银行综合运用数量、价格、结构等多种货币政策工具，为经济回升向好和金融市场 稳定运行创造了适宜的货币金融环境。数据显示，截至9月末，支持做好金融"五篇大文章"的结构性货 币政策工具余额达3.9万亿元。 本报北京11月12日电 （记者吴秋余）中国人民银行发布的2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告显 示，今年以来，适度宽松的货币政策持续发力，在金融总量较快增长的同时，信贷结构也在不断优化， 有力支持了重点领域、重大战略和经济结构的转型升级。9月末，我国科技贷款、绿色贷款、普惠贷 款、养老产业贷款、数字经济产业贷款分别同比增长11.8%、22.9%、11.2%、58.2%、12.9%，均高于全 部贷款增速。总体看，适度宽松货币政策效果在不断累积，对实体经济的支持效果还会逐步显现。 《 人民日报 》（ 2025年11月13日 02 版） 报告提出，下阶段，要实施好适度宽松的货币政策。综合运用多种工具，保持社会融资条件相对宽松， 同时继续完善货币政策框架，强化货币政策的执行和传导，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供 应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 (责编：赵欣悦、袁勃) 关注公众号 ...

中国人民银行发布的2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告显示，今年以来，适度宽松的货币政策持续 发力，在金融总量较快增长的同时，信贷结构也在不断优化，有力支持了重点领域、重大战略和经济结 构的转型升级。9月末，我国科技贷款、绿色贷款、普惠贷款、养老产业贷款、数字经济产业贷款分别 同比增长11.8%、22.9%、11.2%、58.2%、12.9%，均高于全部贷款增速。总体看，适度宽松货币政策效 果在不断累积，对实体经济的支持效果还会逐步显现。 今年以来，中国人民银行综合运用数量、价格、结构等多种货币政策工具，为经济回升向好和金融市场 稳定运行创造了适宜的货币金融环境。数据显示，截至9月末，支持做好金融"五篇大文章"的结构性货 币政策工具余额达3.9万亿元。 报告提出，下阶段，要实施好适度宽松的货币政策。综合运用多种工具，保持社会融资条件相对宽松， 同时继续完善货币政策框架，强化货币政策的执行和传导，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供 应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 （文章来源：人民日报） ...

Group 1: Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market opened mixed, with energy products leading the gains, as crude oil rose by 2.11% [1] - Most base metals increased, with Shanghai tin up by 1.42%, while precious metals also saw gains, with Shanghai silver rising by 0.96% [1] - Agricultural products mostly declined, with live pigs down by 0.93%, and chemical products also saw a downward trend, with ethylene glycol falling by 0.89% [1] Group 2: Palm Oil Market - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rose for the second consecutive day, supported by stronger Chicago soybean oil, but faced pressure from weather concerns and weak November export data [2] - The benchmark January palm oil contract closed up by 27 Malaysian Ringgit, or 0.66%, at 4,139 Malaysian Ringgit per ton [2] Group 3: Rubber Market - Current demand for rubber is at its best level post-pandemic, with strong performance in heavy truck data and high operating rates in downstream tire factories [3] - There is a willingness among downstream tire manufacturers to accept orders, but supply remains the core factor, with future production increases dependent on weather conditions [3] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with continued inventory reduction during the peak season [4] - The demand for lithium carbonate remains recognized, and there is still upward momentum, although spot prices are lagging, indicating potential profit-taking risks [4] Group 5: Market Events and Trends - The People's Bank of China released its monetary policy report for Q3 2025, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions [5] - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to B50 next year, which may impact palm oil exports and tighten global supply, potentially leading to a spike in palm oil prices [9]

Monetary Policy Overview - The monetary policy continues to emphasize "appropriate easing" and "maintaining reasonable growth of financial aggregates" as stated in previous reports[5] - The third quarter report highlights the combination of "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," reflecting a subtle shift in policy focus[5][9] Economic Outlook - The central bank maintains a positive outlook for the economy, stating that there is a foundation and support for achieving the annual economic targets[8] - Emphasis is placed on enhancing domestic demand and fostering endogenous growth momentum, aligning with the "15th Five-Year Plan" requirements[8][13] Interest Rates and Lending - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans remained stable at 3.06%, with a slight decrease of 3 basis points compared to December 2024[5] - The weighted average interest rate for new loans fell by 5 basis points to 3.67% for general loans and 3.14% for corporate loans[5] Policy Adjustments - The report indicates a reduced urgency for short-term monetary easing, focusing instead on implementing previous policies and preparing for cross-cyclical adjustments[10][12] - If economic growth pressures increase, there remains room for potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the following year[10][12] Financial Structure Optimization - The report stresses the need to optimize the credit structure, including expanding financial support for consumption and implementing policies to assist personal credit recovery[12] - Continued efforts will be made to ensure that interest rate adjustments facilitate smoother transmission of monetary policy[11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes multiple aspects including macro - data, commodity investment, financial news, and stock market trends, and presents various viewpoints and expectations for different industries. For example, in 2026, fiscal policy is expected to continue a moderately expansionary trend, and monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose tone [32]. - The Chinese economy is expected to have new momentum and new forces emerging in 2026, and it is recommended to invest in Chinese A - share assets [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 4.8% at constant prices, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter [1]. - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, up slightly from 50.0% in the previous month [1]. - In September 2025, M1 year - on - year growth was 7.2%, up from 6.0% in the previous month; M2 year - on - year growth was 8.4%, down from 8.8% in the previous month [1]. - In October 2025, CPI year - on - year was 0.2%, up from - 0.3% in the previous month; PPI year - on - year was - 2.1%, up from - 2.3% in the previous month [1]. 2. Commodity Investment 2.1 Comprehensive - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds have been fully disbursed by October 29, 2025 [2]. - As of November 11, 2025, 39 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 29 had negative basis [3]. - The US will suspend the implementation of export control penetration rules from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026 [3]. 2.2 Metals - From November 15, 2025, the minimum fixed - amount investment for accumulated gold in CITIC Bank will be adjusted from 1000 yuan to 1500 yuan, and the daily accumulation starting amount for gold in China Construction Bank will be raised from 1000 yuan to 1200 yuan [5]. - International precious metal futures generally rose. Deutsche Bank predicts future prices for silver, platinum, palladium, gold, copper, aluminum, and zinc [5]. 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The National Development and Reform Commission will ensure energy supply, and on November 11, 2025, the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea was put into production [8]. 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The US's new sanctions on Russian crude oil and the expected end of the US government shutdown boosted the price of Brent crude oil [9]. - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to B50 next year, which may affect palm oil exports and prices [9]. 2.5 Agricultural Products - On November 10, 2025, the price of white - striped pigs in Beijing Xinfadi Market decreased compared to the average price on October 31 [12]. - Germany's oilseed industry association UFOP estimates the winter rapeseed planting area in 2026 [12]. - Brazil's November 2025 exports of soybeans, corn, and soybean meal are expected to increase [12]. 3. Financial News 3.1 Open Market - On November 11, 2025, the central bank conducted 403.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 286.3 billion yuan [14]. 3.2 Key News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, deepen financial reform, and expand high - level opening - up [15]. - The Chinese government encourages the development of the bond market's "technology board" and promotes the internationalization of the RMB [17]. - The US Senate voted to end the government shutdown, and the House of Representatives will vote on the temporary appropriation bill [23]. 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market generally continued to be warm, with most interest - rate bond yields falling [25]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.16% [26]. 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 32 basis points at 7.1207 on November 11, 2025 [30]. 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities predicts that in 2026, fiscal policy will continue to be moderately expansionary, and monetary policy will be moderately loose [32]. - It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield in 2026 will fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9% [33]. 4. Stock Market - A - shares were weakly sorted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.4% [37]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.18%, and south - bound funds had a net inflow of HK$44.67 billion on November 11, 2025 [38]. - Since October, margin trading funds have continuously flowed into the power equipment, electronics, and non - ferrous metals industries [38]. - As of November 11, 2025, 87 new stocks have been listed in the Hong Kong stock market this year, with a total IPO fundraising of over HK$240 billion [39].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in the next phase, utilizing various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions while improving the monetary policy framework and enhancing execution and transmission [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC's upcoming monetary policy will focus on maintaining a moderately accommodative stance and ensuring that social financing conditions remain relatively loose [1][4]. - The report indicates that structural monetary policy tools will continue to play a significant role in optimizing financing structures and supporting key areas of the economy [4][6]. Group 2: Financing Structure Optimization - As of the end of September, various types of loans have shown significant year-on-year growth: technology loans increased by 11.8%, green loans by 22.9%, inclusive loans by 11.2%, elderly care industry loans by 58.2%, and digital economy industry loans by 12.9% [3][12]. - The total balance of structural monetary policy tools supporting the "Five Major Articles" reached 3.9 trillion yuan, indicating a reasonable growth in financial volume and low social financing costs [3][4]. Group 3: Focus on Key Areas - The growth rate of loans in areas related to the "Five Major Articles" has exceeded 10%, with elderly care industry loans approaching 60% growth [6][8]. - The PBOC's structural monetary policy tools are designed to incentivize financial institutions to support major national strategies and key areas of economic and social development [8][10]. Group 4: Future Directions - The report emphasizes that future monetary policy will prioritize support for technological innovation, consumption stimulation, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [1][14]. - The balance of loans to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises reached 3.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, and technology loans accounted for over 30% of new loans [12].