花旗一举扭转此前观点，认为当前由关税引发的通胀担忧、劳动力市场走弱以及美元疲软预期，共同构成了未来三个月内金价上涨的"完美风暴"。 （花旗上调目标价位至3500美元/盎司，过去3个月金价处于"区间波 动"状态） 据追风交易台消息，8月3日花旗研报指出，黄金在未来三个月内有望创下历史新高，目标价位上调至3500美元/盎司，这为寻求对冲美股下跌、美元走软 以及美国经济周期性风险的投资者提供了短期战术机会。 然而随着美国政府可能在2026年推出刺激措施，经济基本面将得到改善，花旗预计届时金价将面临周期性回调的压力。此外花旗强调对于黄金生产商而 言，当前高达3900美元的远期价格，则提供了一个锁定未来利润的"五十年一遇"的良机。 短期看涨：美股美元双重对冲需求推动金价上行 今年以来，黄金投资需求加速上涨直接与美股、美元的下行密切挂钩。 花旗认为本轮金价上涨并非结构性因素为主（如央行购金规模温和增加），而是与"周期性"增长、通胀担忧以及美股美元双重对冲需求有关。 （"周期性"增长、通胀担忧以及美元走弱推动金价走高） 数据显示，美欧受关税影响的股票下跌与美元指数走弱同步出现，而黄金ETF持仓大幅增加。美元自2月起下跌约1 ...

Group 1 - Geopolitical conflicts have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a more than 4% increase in gold-related ETFs, while the S&P oil and gas ETF fell nearly 3%, indicating a sharp adjustment in risk expectations [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has strengthened to 78% according to CME, and central banks, particularly China, have been continuously increasing gold reserves for 18 consecutive months [3] - Historical data shows that extreme divergence between gold and oil and gas often signals an impending market shift, suggesting that the current asset reallocation reflects both short-term emotional responses and long-term inflation concerns [4] Group 2 - The surge in U.S. crude oil inventories and the increasing penetration of electric vehicles are suppressing demand expectations, while geopolitical premiums are being realized ahead of time [4] - Smart money is showing a preference for gold mining stock ETFs due to their greater elasticity, while there has been a significant increase in bearish options positions in the oil and gas sector [4] - The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has strengthened, indicating a shift in investor behavior as risk aversion becomes the dominant market theme [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increase in gold and silver prices driven by market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, following a disappointing U.S. employment report [1] - On December 4, 2025 gold futures rose by $12.6, closing at $3428.60 per ounce, marking a 0.37% increase [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.36% to 98.786, contributing to the rise in precious metal prices [1] Group 2 - Citibank raised its gold price forecast for the next three months from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, citing ongoing inflation concerns and a weaker dollar as factors that will drive gold prices higher [1] - The expected trading range for gold was adjusted from $3100-$3500 to $3300-$3600 [1] - Silver futures for September delivery increased by 34 cents, closing at $37.445 per ounce, with a 0.92% rise [1]

新华财经纽约8月4日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价4 日上涨12.6美元，收于每盎司3428.60美元，涨幅为0.37%。 花旗银行还将黄金预期交易区间从之前的3100美元至3500美元上调至3300美元至3600美元。 上周五发布的美国7月就业报告整体悲观，强化了市场对于美联储将在9月重启降息的预期，这继续推动 黄金和白银价格走高。 在此背景下，美元指数在上周五盘中"闪崩"之后4日继续走低，也助力了贵金属价格上涨。衡量美元对 六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.36%，在汇市尾市收于98.786。 消息面上，花旗银行4日宣布，将未来三个月金价预测从6月份的每盎司3300美元上调至3500美元。 花旗银行在一份报告中说："2025年下半年，通胀担忧将持续升温，加之美元走弱，将推动金价小幅上 涨，创下历史新高。" 当天9月交割的白银期货价格上涨34美分，收于每盎司37.445美元，涨幅为0.92%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has revised its gold price forecast upwards, expecting prices to reach new highs due to deteriorating U.S. economic outlook and rising inflation concerns, with a target price increase from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce [1][3]. Economic Outlook and Inflation Concerns - The report indicates that the worsening U.S. economic outlook and inflation fears will drive gold prices to historical highs, contrasting sharply with previous bearish predictions [3][4]. - The anticipated economic growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are expected to persist into the second half of 2025, contributing to a moderate increase in gold prices [3][4]. Employment Data and Market Expectations - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed weak performance, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below expectations, leading to renewed market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with an 81% probability [3][4]. Geopolitical Risks and Tariff Policies - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have increased the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - The recent imposition of high tariffs by the Trump administration on multiple trade partners has also been a significant factor in Citigroup's upward revision of gold price expectations [5][10]. Strong Demand for Gold - Since mid-2022, total gold demand has increased by over one-third, with prices expected to nearly double by the second quarter of 2025, driven by strong investment demand, moderate central bank purchases, and resilient jewelry demand despite rising prices [6]. - Gold typically performs well during periods of political and economic uncertainty and becomes more attractive in low-interest-rate environments, which is expected to be the case as Fed rate cut expectations rise [6]. Market Price Update - As of Monday's Asian trading session, the spot gold price was recorded at $3,356.37 per ounce [7]. Shift in Predictions - Citigroup's latest forecast represents a stark contrast to its previous outlook, which anticipated gold prices would fall below $3,000 in the coming quarters due to improving global growth confidence and a shift in U.S. trade policy [10]. - The rapid adjustment in Citigroup's stance reflects the swift changes in the global macroeconomic environment and a reassessment of inflation risks and economic uncertainties [10].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in major U.S. stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq, which fell by 2.5% amid disappointing employment data and renewed inflation concerns [1] - Major tech stocks experienced substantial losses, with Amazon down over 6%, Nvidia down over 3%, and Tesla, Meta, Google, and Apple all declining by more than 2% [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, falling short of the expected 110,000, with prior months' figures revised down by nearly 260,000, marking the worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Group 2 - Historically, August has been a challenging month for the U.S. stock market, particularly for growth stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite Index showing an average monthly gain of only 0.3% since 1971, making it the second worst month of the year [1] - The market sentiment is further weakened by the fading hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, alongside rising inflation concerns [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in major U.S. stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq, which fell by 2.5% amid disappointing employment data and renewed inflation concerns [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, far below the expected 110,000, with prior months' figures revised down by nearly 260,000, marking the worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - Historically, August has been a challenging month for the U.S. stock market, especially for growth stocks, with the Nasdaq's average monthly gain in August being only 0.3% since 1971, making it the second worst month of the year [1] Group 2 - Major technology stocks experienced significant declines, with Amazon dropping over 6%, Nvidia down over 3%, and Tesla, Meta, Google, and Apple all falling between 1% to 2% [1] - The market sentiment has turned bearish, with short-sellers gaining momentum following the disappointing employment report, leading to increased selling pressure [1] - The article suggests that the market landscape may become increasingly fragile as inflation concerns resurface and hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September diminish [1]

Core Viewpoint - Uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations and geopolitical risks is driving investors towards defensive assets, particularly gold, leading to an increase in gold prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The potential imposition of new tariffs on the EU by August 1 is creating a demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks in Europe, particularly related to the cap on Russian oil exports, are raising concerns about global energy supply and inflation [1] - Political instability in Japan, with weakened leadership, may complicate trade negotiations with the United States, contributing to market caution [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The combination of trade tensions, political instability, and inflation concerns is prompting investors to view gold as a defensive asset [1] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to strengthen as these uncertainties persist into the new week [1]

Group 1 - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors including Federal Reserve monetary policy, tariff policies, U.S. economic data, and dollar movements [2][3] - Despite short-term pressure on gold prices, there is optimism regarding the long-term outlook due to support from dip-buying and the uncertain tariff policies enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal [2][3] - The divergence in market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction is indicated by the strong buying interest in gold despite rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are experiencing volatility, with significant resistance around $3343 and support levels between $3310 and $3282 [3][5] - The trading strategy suggests a focus on short positions when prices rebound to resistance levels, while also considering long positions at lower support levels [6][5] - The market is expected to remain in a wide-ranging fluctuation, with potential for significant price movements on Fridays, influenced by broader economic indicators and geopolitical tensions [5][6]

美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.29%，标普500指数涨0.25%，纳指涨0.19%。阿斯麦跌超8%，管理层 警告2026年增长或无法实现。加密货币概念股SharpLink Gaming涨超16%。特斯拉涨近1%，特斯拉大六 座Model Y L将于今年秋季上市交付。 ...