澳大利亚储备银行（央行）日内将现金利率维持在3.6%，符合市场预期。经济学家指出，澳央行本轮 降息周期几乎可以肯定已经结束，未来的风险偏向于该央行可能觉得有必要提前转向紧缩政策。 （文章来源：新华财经） 澳央行指出，通胀风险偏向上行，需要更多时间评估价格压力的持续性。澳央行还表示，国内需求强于 预期，可能会增加通胀压力。机构分析指出，在通胀和消费者需求数据强劲的情况下，市场已经开始计 入明年可能加息的风险。一些分析师指出，如果通胀压力持续上升，央行可能最早在明年2月就被迫加 息。 对于明年的加息节奏，机构观点各不相同，还需等待进一步的数据证明。InTouch Capital Markets高级分 析师Sean Callow表示，澳央行的声明明确表示，他们不会对通胀的暂时波动过度反应，并且可能比市 场更不愿意考虑加息。明年2月加息的可能性很低，可能要在夏季之后再行动。瑞银则认为，澳央行将 在明年底前加息。 澳元受加息预期支撑，表现亮眼。后续如果澳央行转为鹰派的预期实现，且美联储变得更鸽派，那么澳 元可能会继续得到提振。西太平洋银行外汇策略主管Richard Franulovich表示，澳元正享受到多年未见 的利 ...

Rehn同时强调： "我们并不预设任何利率路径，始终落实承诺：坚持依赖数据、逐次会议决策的办法，保持充分的行动 自由"。 "正因如此，现在对12月利率政策表态没有意义"。 据Econostream Media报道，欧洲央行管委会成员Olli Rehn认为，消费者价格面临略微偏下的风险。 这位芬兰官员在周一发表的评论中称："目前下行风险略占主导，但上行风险也存在。这凸显了依赖数 据的重要性。" "正因如此，现在对12月利率政策表态没有意义"。 责任编辑：郭明煜 这位芬兰官员在周一发表的评论中称："目前下行风险略占主导，但上行风险也存在。这凸显了依赖数 据的重要性。" Rehn同时强调： "我们并不预设任何利率路径，始终落实承诺：坚持依赖数据、逐次会议决策的办法，保持充分的行动 自由"。 责任编辑：郭明煜 据Econostream Media报道，欧洲央行管委会成员Olli Rehn认为，消费者价格面临略微偏下的风险。 ...

欧洲央行管理委员会成员Francois Villeroy de Galhau表示，欧洲央行面临的通胀下降风险比通胀加速风 险更大，如果通胀持续低于2%的目标，央行将采取行动。 这位法国央行行长表示，工资增速更大幅度的放缓也可能带来下行压力。 他称，通胀上行风险包括供应链碎片化以及德国政府支出的激增。 Villeroy在法国央行的一次讲话中表示："通胀前景的下行风险依然至少与上行风险同样显著，我们不会 容忍持续低于通胀目标。" 欧洲央行管理委员会成员Francois Villeroy de Galhau表示，欧洲央行面临的通胀下降风险比通胀加速风 险更大，如果通胀持续低于2%的目标，央行将采取行动。 这位法国央行行长表示，工资增速更大幅度的放缓也可能带来下行压力。 这些评论的语气比欧洲央行其他成员更为鸽派。自2024年年中以来，随着通胀放缓，利率已经从4%下 调至2%，因此其他成员反对进一步降息。 Villeroy表示，认为欧洲央行会在较长时期内容忍低于但接近2%的通胀水平是"误解"。他还强调，只关 注这种偏离的幅度是不正确的，真正重要的是这种偏离有多持久。 他表示："如果持续存在，那么高于和低于2%的偏离同样 ...

【美股】截至收盘，道指涨185.13点，涨幅为0.39%，报47474.46点；纳指涨137.75点，涨幅为0.59%， 报23413.67点；标普500指数涨16.74点，涨幅为0.25%，报6829.37点。苹果(AAPL.US)延续昨日涨势， 收盘涨1.09%，盘中触及287.4历史新高。 智通财经APP获悉，周二，三大指数收涨，比特币回升至9万美元之上，部分收复了前一日部分失地。 市场对美联储12月降息的预期重新升温。交易员目前乐观地预计，美联储将在12月10日结束的下次政策 会议上宣布降息。根据芝商所的美联储观察工具，市场预计下次会议上降息的可能性为87.6%，远高于 11月中旬的几率。 特朗普政府预计将把旅行禁令扩大到约30个国家。据报道，特朗普政府预计将把旅行禁令扩大到约30个 国家。美国国土安全部一名官员表示，预计将很快公布被列入禁令的国家名单。特朗普政府已经对12个 国家的游客实施了全面封锁，对另外7个国家实施了部分限制。上周两名美国国民警卫队士兵在华盛顿 特区距离白宫一个街区的地方遭枪击，一名警卫成员死亡，另一名警卫人员伤势严重。袭击事件后，特 朗普威胁要采取一系列限制移民到美国的行动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Russia's unprecedented move to sell its gold reserves to cover budget deficits, marking a significant shift in its fiscal policy amid ongoing military expenditures related to the Ukraine conflict [5][6][8]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Fiscal Policy - On November 20, the Central Bank of Russia confirmed it has begun selling physical gold reserves to meet budgetary needs, a first in Russian history [5][6]. - From 2022 to November 1, 2025, Russia's National Wealth Fund saw its gold reserves decrease from 405.7 tons to 173.1 tons, a reduction of 232.6 tons, or 57% [7]. - This sale represents a substantial shift from previous practices, which involved only accounting adjustments between the government and the central bank, to actual physical transactions [7][8]. Group 2: Military Expenditures - Russia's fiscal pressure is evident, with a projected fiscal deficit of 3.69 trillion rubles in the first half of 2025, over five times that of the same period in 2024 [12]. - The government plans to allocate 41.469 trillion rubles for total expenditures in 2025, with 13.5 trillion rubles earmarked for defense, accounting for 32.55% of the budget [13]. - Military-related expenditures are expected to exceed 16.55 trillion rubles in 2025, averaging over 453 billion rubles per day [17]. Group 3: Revenue Decline - Energy revenue, a key fiscal pillar, has sharply declined since mid-2022, with oil prices dropping significantly [48][50]. - By May 2025, the average price of Urals crude oil fell to $53 per barrel, below the $75 needed for fiscal balance, leading to a 24% reduction in revenue expectations [50]. - Oil and gas tax revenues for January to October 2025 totaled 7.5 trillion rubles, a year-on-year decrease of over 21% [51]. Group 4: Economic Challenges - Approximately $300 billion in foreign reserves have been frozen, leading to a liquidity crisis and a 55% drop in the National Wealth Fund's liquid assets [55][56]. - The Russian government has resorted to printing money to address fiscal shortfalls, resulting in unprecedented growth in the money supply [62]. - Despite high interest rates aimed at curbing inflation, the annual inflation rate remains at 7.7% as of October 2025, significantly above the target of 4% [67]. Group 5: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The sale of 232.6 tons of gold is unlikely to significantly impact the international gold market due to its large daily trading volume [82]. - Domestic demand for gold in Russia has surged, with individuals purchasing approximately 282 tons over four years, indicating strong absorption capacity [87]. - The article predicts that if current spending and revenue trends continue, Russia's gold reserves could be depleted within 3 to 5 years, raising concerns about future fiscal sustainability [100].

在全球各国疯狂购金的大牛市中，突然出现了一件极其反常的事。 11月20日，俄罗斯中央银行向俄罗斯国际文传电讯社确认，该行已开始出售储备的实物黄金，以弥补国家预算所需资金。 这是俄罗斯历史上首次公开将黄金储备用于财政支出。 据俄罗斯财政部的数据：从2022年战争前-2025年11月1日，国家财富基金的黄金储备从405.7吨骤减至173.1吨，累计抛售232.6吨，抛售比例高达57%。 这与俄罗斯过去的黄金操作有本质区别：以前主要是政府与央行之间的账面调整，黄金仍留在国家金库，属于是"账面调整"；而这次是实物交易，是"实 质性减持"。 这是货真价实的"搬金条出库"，标志着俄罗斯财政政策的重大转向。 至于原因，显而易见：补贴战争支出。 但这必然不是全部。 百万之师，日费浩繁 从数据上看，俄罗斯的财政压力已经爆表：2025年上半年财政赤字高达3.69万亿卢布，是 2024年同期的5倍以上。 最大负担是军费。 卖了多少？ 2025年俄罗斯联邦政府的财政支出规划为41.469万亿卢布，其中13.5万亿卢布为国防开支预算，占比高达32.55%，比2024年还要增长25%。 而这还不是全部。 2024年，4.1万亿卢布的经济 ...

FOMC内部阵营分化已十分清晰。分析指出，若主席鲍威尔、副主席杰斐逊与威廉姆斯组成"降息支持阵营"，加 上三位特朗普任命的理事支持，仅能获得12名投票成员中的6票，距离多数通过仍差关键一票。 【环球网财经综合报道】随着12月货币政策会议临近，美联储内部关于降息的分歧日益公开化。上周末，两位关 键官员相继释放对立信号，凸显出通胀风险与劳动力市场降温之间的政策权衡困境。 作为今年拥有FOMC投票权的成员，波士顿联储主席苏珊・柯林斯周六明确表达了对12月降息的谨慎态度。她强 调，通胀领域仍存在风险，当前"温和限制性"的货币政策有助于确保通胀向2%目标回落。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，美联储三号人物、纽约联储主席约翰・威廉姆斯于周五释放了明确的降息信号。他表 示，劳动力市场下行风险已上升，而通胀上行压力有所缓解，"近期仍有进一步降息的空间"，以推动政策立场向 中性水平靠拢。 决策分歧的核心源于复杂的经济基本面。柯林斯指出，9月就业数据表现"喜忧参半"，新增岗位超出预期，但未改 变劳动力市场逐步降温的整体判断。 通胀方面，双方仍存在共识性担忧。柯林斯明确提及"通胀方面存在风险"；威廉姆斯虽认为通胀上行风险有所缓 解，但未否 ...

一番耸动言论激起外交风波，一纸"撒钱"方案引爆市场动荡。 高市早苗上任仅月余，就让日本站上风口浪尖。 11月中旬以来，日本国债遭遇大规模抛售，10年期国债收益率不断攀升，创下自2008年全球金融危机以 来的最高水平。 日元汇率则持续走低，一度跌至1美元兑157日元，创下10个月以来新低。 11月11日，日本东京。 债汇"双杀"，表面看是金融市场震荡，实则是政治、财政与外交多重压力交织下的集中反应。 股市也表现不佳，日经225指数一周累计下跌3.48%，失守49000点。 11月21日，高市早苗政府推出规模超21万亿日元的经济刺激计划，若计入地方政府与民间企业配套投 资，总规模预计高达42.8万亿日元，远高于去年同期水平。 尽管包含部分减税与能源补贴等惠民措施，但市场更关注其对日本财政可持续性的长期冲击。 财政支出规模大幅超出市场预期，也迅速点燃了外界对日本债务压力与通胀风险的担忧。 尽管高市早苗在记者会上强调，该计划充分考虑了财政可持续性，但市场并没有买单。有东京交易员表 示，越来越多观点认为，日本宏观经济政策路径正变得更加混乱。 《金融时报》报道指出，投资者担忧这份追加预算案远超预期，资金来源势必依赖大量长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold Market**: On Thursday, precious metals fluctuated, with London gold constrained below $4,100. The US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed, and Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts. Domestic gold ETFs continued to see inflows. The recommended trading strategy is to buy at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver Market**: The tight supply situation is gradually easing. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated downward. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the market anticipates a tight supply - demand situation for electrolytic copper next year. With unclear macro - drivers, the recommended strategy is to wait and see [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. The smelters are operating at high loads, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [3]. - **Alumina**: The price of the alumina main contract decreased slightly. Some alumina plants are undergoing early maintenance or reducing production. The supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to change, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][4]. - **Zinc**: The price of the Shanghai zinc contract decreased slightly. Supply is differentiated between domestic and overseas markets, and demand is weak. The recommended strategy is to short at high prices [4]. - **Lead**: The price of the Shanghai lead contract decreased slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and demand is affected by high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract decreased significantly. Supply decreased, and demand is supported by the polysilicon industry. With the planned production cut, the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and be cautious about short - selling [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices during the callback [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply decreased slightly, and downstream production decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply - demand situation of steel is weak, with significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract, and the reference range for RB01 is 3040 - 3090 [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weakening marginally. It is recommended to hold short positions in the iron ore 2605 contract, and the reference range for I01 is 760 - 795 [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the coking coal 2605 contract, and the reference range for JM01 is 1100 - 1140 [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term CBOT soybean price is weak. The global supply - demand situation is gradually improving. The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic price may weaken in the short term [7]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price is running weakly. The short - term supply is tight, but the long - term price is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [7]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil price decreased. The near - term supply is high, and the long - term supply is expected to decrease seasonally. The P contract is in a contango structure, and it is difficult to determine the unilateral price [7]. - **Sugar**: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract decreased slightly. Internationally, the Indian export quota affects the price, and the long - term global production is expected to increase. Domestically, the price is expected to follow the international trend. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic cotton price fluctuates narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see, with a range - trading strategy between 13400 - 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price decreased. The supply pressure decreased, and the demand weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures price is running weakly, and the spot price increased in most areas. The supply is still abundant, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. The supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, and the demand has weakened. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a bear - spread [9]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is balanced and loose, and the PTA is in inventory accumulation. It is recommended to take profits on PX long positions and short the PTA processing margin in the far - month contracts [9]. - **PP**: The main contract decreased slightly. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a bear - spread [9]. - **MEG**: The supply may decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. The demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices above the 01 contract [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price weakened. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it can be shorted at high prices if the Russian oil production cut is less than 500,000 barrels per day [10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract rebounded slightly. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term situation is still weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window [10].

Core Insights - A little-known billionaire trader, Bian Ximing, has made significant profits in China's futures market, earning $1.5 billion from gold and nearly $1 billion from copper investments [1][4][5] Group 1: Background of Bian Ximing - Bian Ximing, 61, hails from Zhejiang and initially made his fortune in the plastic pipe industry before expanding into various sectors including chemicals, real estate, and finance [4] - He acquired Zhongcai Futures in 2003, marking his entry into professional trading [4] - Bian is known for his low profile, having relocated to Gibraltar over a decade ago, and manages his domestic team primarily through video conferencing [4][9] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Performance - In mid-2022, Bian anticipated a trend of de-dollarization and rising inflation risks, leading him to invest heavily in Chinese gold futures [5] - His investments in gold paid off significantly, with estimates suggesting a net gain of $1.5 billion during a record price surge in 2023-2024 [5][7] - After profiting from gold, he shifted his focus to copper, betting on China's economic resilience and the increasing demand for copper due to high-tech upgrades and energy transitions [5][7] Group 3: Current Market Position - By mid-May 2023, Bian had accumulated a copper long position of nearly 90,000 tons, making him the largest copper bull in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a total position size close to $1 billion [7] - His investment approach is characterized as a rare and logically strong long-term position, contrasting with many investors who are reducing risk exposure amid global uncertainties [7][9] Group 4: Investment Philosophy - Bian's trading style emphasizes long-term commitment, macroeconomic research, and industry cycles, resembling the strategies of Western hedge fund managers rather than typical speculative practices [7][9] - He occasionally shares investment insights online, which resonate with followers, reflecting a philosophical approach to investing [9] Group 5: Market Influence - Despite his recent successes, Bian has faced losses in stock and local bond investments, indicating a nuanced understanding of market risks [9] - His extensive cross-industry experience and deep macroeconomic understanding contribute to his trading decisions, positioning him as a significant figure in the increasingly complex global commodity market [9]