Market Overview - US stock market experienced a decline for the second consecutive day, with the Dow Jones falling by 171.50 points (0.37%) to 46121.28, the Nasdaq down 0.34% to 22497.86, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.28% to 6637.97 [2] - The materials sector led the decline, while the energy sector rose due to a significant increase in oil prices [2] Key Company Performances - Tesla shares increased by 4.0%, while Microsoft rose by 0.2%. In contrast, Amazon fell by 0.2%, Apple and Nvidia dropped by 0.8%, and Google decreased by 1.8% [2] - Oracle's stock fell by 1.7% amid reports of the company planning to raise $15 billion through bond issuance [2] Economic Data - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 2.8%, with Alibaba increasing by 8.2%, JD.com and Baidu rising over 5%, and Pinduoduo up by 1.9%. However, NetEase saw a decline of 1.8% [3] - In August, new home sales in the US increased by 20.5% from July, reaching an annualized total of 800,000 units, surpassing market expectations [3] - The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 0.6% increase in mortgage applications due to a decline in the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious remarks have injected a degree of caution into the market, particularly regarding the labor market, leading some investors to take profits [3] - Powell indicated that asset prices appear to be at "relatively high valuation levels," and emphasized the need for a balance between addressing inflation risks and labor market weaknesses [3][4] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that further rate cuts may be necessary due to slowing economic growth and consumer spending [4] Bond Market - The yields on long-term US Treasury bonds have risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.1 basis points to 4.14%, and the 2-year yield rising by 3.2 basis points to 3.60% [4] Commodity Market - International oil prices reached a seven-week high, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.49% to $64.99 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by 2.48% to $69.31 per barrel [5] - Gold prices fell from record highs, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery dropping by 1.28% to $3732.10 per ounce [5]

来源：乌鸦校尉 大家好，我是乌鸦。 话说，在跟懂王拉扯良久之后，美联储还是降息了。 其实降息这个事呢，美国内外那也算是早有预料，悬念只在降多少。 因为前一段时间，白宫之主特朗普和美联储主席鲍威尔，为了争降息25个基点还是50个基点，打的那叫一个乌烟瘴气。 终于，靴子落地，当地时间9月17日，美联储决议降息25个基点。 看起来好像是鲍威尔"争赢了"？那老鲍要问你了： 这福气给你要不要啊？劳资都要愁死了！ 唉乍看起来是靴子已经落了地，但是啊，只落下来一只。这比干脆不落下来更难受啊…… 对于那些并不支持大幅降息的美国人来说，美联储这一来就25个点，他们还感觉出乎意料，而且你这一下就降这么多了，这次降完下次降不降？你把利率 降到什么位置是个头儿？ 那懂王和白宫呢，我说50个点，你就只给我降25个？那之后我还得给你继续上强度啊。 那特朗普和鲍威尔为这25个基点的差距争来争去，争的到底是什么呢？ 1 我们知道从懂王二度临朝以来，对美联储主席鲍威尔就不是很满意，激烈的时候甚至威胁要"越界"解雇鲍威尔，要这么说现在争论区区25个点的降息幅 度，已经算是非常平和了。 两人矛盾累积的一大触发点就是这个降息。特朗普是三番五次、日夜 ...

截至发稿时，衡量美元兑六种主要货币表现的美元指数（DXY）上涨近0.4%，接近97.60。在此前连续两 日回调后，美元指数重新恢复上行走势。 周三欧洲交易时段，美元/日元上涨0.45%，交投接近148.30。美联储主席鲍威尔在讲话中未支持激进的鸽 派立场，令美元兑多数主要货币走强，从而推动美元/日元大幅上扬。 鲍威尔的表态与其他几位联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）官员的观点一致。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆、 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克，以及克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周一均表示，央行在进一步解除货币政策限制 时需要谨慎，原因是通胀风险依然存在。 君諾金融展望后市，投资者将关注美国耐用品订单数据以及8月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，分别于周 四和周五公布，这些数据将成为市场下一步的重要参考。 另一方面，日本9月制造业活动再度下滑。最新公布的Jibun银行制造业PMI初值为48.4，低于8月的49.7。 经济学家此前预计本月制造业PMI将回升至50.2。服务业PMI则小幅回落，从上月的53.1降至53.0，显示扩 张速度有所放缓。 周二，鲍威尔在"大普罗维登斯商会"的讲话中表示，上行的通胀风险与就业市场需求放缓给美联储带来 ...

爱华集团行情在地缘局势紧张与市场押注美联储将加速降息的推动下，黄金价格周二再创新高！现货金上涨0.9%，收报每盎司3778.54美元，盘中最高触及 3790.82美元；12月期金亦涨1%，报3811.30美元，突破3800美元！ 鲍威尔昨公开发言，他指出通膨风险仍存，就业市场未见明显改善，但未对利率路径释放明确信号。而交易员继续押注联储将在10月与12月降息，市场关注 本周五即将公布的核心PCE物价指数。 欧洲 9月23日，欧洲股市全线反弹，DAX、CAC 40、欧元区蓝筹指数普涨，预示着投资者情绪升温。然而，英国富时 100 指数略有下跌，凸显其受当地因素影响 与中国大陆的背离 顶级股票推动者 值得一提的是，黄金今年表现一骑绝尘，根据TradingView数据，金价年内已飙升44%，白银涨幅更达53%，铂金上涨60%，钯金亦升33%，全数跑赢比特 币，比特币年内仅涨逾20%，报11.3万美元。 1. 前一天总结 – 2025 年 9 月 23 日星期二 美国主要指数 标准普尔 500 指数： ▼-0。55% 至 6,656.92 道琼斯指数：▼-0.19% 至 46,292.78 点 纳斯达克100指数：▼ ...

美国经济现罕见信号：批发价格意外下跌背后暗藏危机 （本文为今日头条独家原创内容，严禁转载） 这一数据之所以引发广泛关注，是因为它暂时缓解了市场对特朗普政府高关税政策可能引发全面通胀的 担忧。此前经济学家普遍担心，加征关税会导致企业采购成本飙升，进而引发物价全面上涨的连锁反 应。而8月PPI的回落，至少表明这种最坏的情况尚未发生。 深入分析数据可以发现，贸易服务项目价格下跌1.7%是PPI回落的主要原因。这个指标直接反映零售商 和批发商的利润空间变化，其下跌意味着商家正在压缩自身利润。与此同时，美联储紧急降息25个基点 也印证了美国经济增长正在放缓。值得注意的是，这次降息决议中，只有特朗普提名的美联储理事斯蒂 芬·米兰投了反对票，据推测是因为他主张更大幅度的50个基点降息。 然而，仅凭PPI整体下跌就判断通胀风险解除还为时过早。更值得关注的是核心通胀指标——剔除波动 较大的食品、能源和贸易服务后的数据。8月核心PPI环比上涨0.3%，年率升至2.8%，显示潜在通胀压 力仍在积聚。尤其是冰箱、洗衣机等耐用消费品价格已连续三个月环比上涨0.3%，这与加征关税导致 的进口成本上升直接相关。 经济学家指出，当前企业可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is showing a cautious attitude towards further interest rate cuts, with officials expressing concerns about inflation risks and limited room for additional easing after the recent rate cut [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - St. Louis Fed President Musalem supports the recent rate cut but believes further easing is limited unless inflation risks do not increase [1][3]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic does not see a need for further rate cuts this year, citing concerns about prolonged high inflation [1][3][4]. - Cleveland Fed President Hammack emphasizes the need for caution in monetary policy to avoid overheating the economy, expressing significant worries about inflation [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Bostic predicts the core inflation rate will rise from 2.9% in July to 3.1% by year-end, with unemployment slightly increasing to 4.5% [3][4]. - Hammack notes that inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for four consecutive years and may remain elevated in the coming years [5]. - Musalem highlights that while tariffs have not had the expected impact on prices, other factors are pushing inflation higher, necessitating continued vigilance from the Fed [5]. Group 3: Labor Market Insights - Bostic acknowledges that while there are risks to the labor market, he does not believe it is currently in crisis, attributing some hiring slowdowns to labor supply constraints [4]. - Hammack points out that despite recent employment growth slowing, the labor market remains strong, as evidenced by low layoff numbers and a low unemployment rate [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is showing a cautious attitude towards further interest rate cuts, with officials expressing concerns about inflation risks and limited room for additional easing after the recent rate cut [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem supports the recent rate cut but believes that further easing is limited unless inflation risks do not increase [1][3]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic shares a similar cautious stance, indicating that he sees no reason for further cuts this year due to concerns about prolonged high inflation [1][3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Musalem describes the recent rate cut as a preventive measure to support the labor market and prevent further weakness, while emphasizing the need for caution in monetary policy [3]. - Bostic predicts that core inflation will rise from 2.9% in July to 3.1% by the end of the year, with a slight increase in unemployment to 4.5% [3][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impacts - Both officials mention the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their potential impact on inflation, with Musalem noting that while tariff effects have been less than expected, other factors are pushing inflation higher [5]. - Bostic observes that the cost increases driven by tariffs have been milder than initially predicted, but warns that these buffers may diminish in the coming months, leading to sustained price pressures [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, which was in line with market expectations. After the policy was implemented, the interest rate market showed a slight upward trend. The 10-year US Treasury bond rate is expected to rise slightly and stabilize within the new range of 4.06-4.16%. The market will then re - evaluate the next policy adjustment based on the core PCE at the end of September and the unemployment rate at the beginning of October [3][4]. - Global stock markets had different performances during the "interest rate cut week." US stocks led the rise and hit a record high, while the Asia - Pacific stock markets followed the upward trend and the European markets were under pressure. Different types of commodities and foreign exchange also showed significant structural differentiation [5][21][23]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Review 1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - **Employment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US this week was 231,000, lower than the expected 241,000 and the previous revised value of 264,000, indicating that the overall lay - off level in the US remains low [1][10]. - **Business Index**: In August, retail sales grew steadily, with the month - on - month growth of retail sales at 0.6% and core retail sales at 0.7%, both higher than expected. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels, the largest decline in nearly three months. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in September reached its highest level since January, and most indicators pointed to economic recovery [2][11]. - **Policy**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% to ease labor market pressure. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in 2025 [3][12]. 1.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review - **US**: During the week from September 12 to September 19, 2025, US Treasury yields rose across the board. The yields of 2 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury bonds increased by 1bp, 4bp, 5bp, 7bp, 8bp, 6bp, and 7bp respectively. The 20 - year US Treasury bond auction had strong market demand [4][13][15]. - **Europe and Japan**: Japanese government bond yields rose, and German government bond yields reached a two - week high. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Japanese government bond rates increased by 2.3bp, 1.4bp, and 0.2bp respectively. The 10 - year German government bond rate increased by 3bp to 2.73% [20]. 2. Other Major Asset Reviews - **Equity**: Global stock markets entered the "interest rate cut week." US stocks led the rise and hit a record high. The Nasdaq index rose 2.21%. The South Korean stock market rose for seven consecutive days, hitting a new annual high. However, the Russian stock market continued its downward trend, and the stock markets of China, the UK, and Germany remained relatively stable [21]. - **Commodities**: Black and chemical products had significant increases, while agricultural products and some industrial metals were under pressure. Precious metals remained relatively stable, and digital assets such as Bitcoin slightly declined [22]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the stability of the UK and Japan's policies led to intensified structural differentiation in the foreign exchange market. The Russian ruble strengthened significantly, the US dollar index slightly declined, and the euro and Swiss franc slightly appreciated. On the other hand, the British pound, Japanese yen, and South Korean won depreciated against the Chinese yuan [23]. 3. Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts to show the changes in bond interest rates, stock index returns, commodity prices, and foreign exchange rates of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [30][32][35][40][47][51].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but internal divisions among officials regarding future rate cuts have emerged, leading to a temporary misalignment between market expectations and the Fed's stance [1][3]. Group 1: Rate Cut Controversy - Among the 19 Federal Reserve officials, 9 support no further rate cuts or only one more cut this year, while another 9 believe that a total cut of 75 basis points is warranted, suggesting cuts in October and December [3]. - One official advocates for a more aggressive cut of 125 basis points, with market speculation pointing to this individual being Milan [3]. - The market anticipates two more rate cuts this year, with probabilities exceeding 80% for October and December, despite Powell's emphasis on the need for data-driven decisions at each meeting [3]. Group 2: Shift in Focus - Powell noted that while the economy is slowing, there are still positive indicators, with GDP growth at 1.5% for the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year [5]. - There is an increasing risk in the labor market, with job creation slowing below the level needed to maintain the unemployment rate, while inflation risks are decreasing [5]. - The focus of rate cuts in the second half of the year is shifting towards improving the labor market, with the Fed awaiting more data on non-farm payrolls and core PCE before making further decisions [5]. Group 3: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the current rate cuts may improve the labor market but could also introduce inflation risks, with expectations of rising inflation in the first quarter of next year [7]. - The Federal Reserve officials are currently oscillating between 50 and 75 basis points for potential cuts, highlighting the importance of upcoming employment data [7]. - The gold market is experiencing a technical adjustment phase, with bullish positions taking a breather, awaiting further data to drive prices upward, with potential to challenge the $4,000 mark [7].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The median rate forecast for the end of the year is 3.5%-3.75%, indicating an additional 50 basis points of potential cuts within the year[2] - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management cut," reflecting a balanced policy stance between hawkish and dovish views[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its real GDP growth forecast for next year to 1.8% while slightly lowering the unemployment rate forecast and raising core inflation expectations[2] - There is significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with 9 members advocating for 2 more cuts, while 6 believe no further cuts are necessary[2] - Despite a weakening job market, consumer and retail sales indicators remain robust, suggesting a favorable environment for risk assets[3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The likelihood of two additional 25 basis point cuts in upcoming meetings is high, making the current environment favorable for equities[3] - Investors are advised to maintain equity asset allocations until there is a clear deterioration in economic indicators[3] Group 4: Risk Factors - Unexpectedly strong recovery in the job market and persistent inflation above expectations could delay the Fed's rate cut schedule[4]